Protection of Trans-European Gas Networks: The Hot Backbones R U I - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

R U I CA R V A L H O ( Q M U L ) L U B O S B U Z N A ( E T H Z ) F L A V I O B O N O ( J R C) E U G E N I O G U T I E R R E Z ( J R C) H U G O T O U CH E T T E ( Q M U L ) R A U L M O N D R A G O N ( Q M U L ) W O L F R A M J U S T ( Q M U L ) D A V I D A R R O W S M I T H ( Q M U L )

Protection of Trans-European Gas Networks: The Hot Backbones

QMUL: Current and Planned Collaborations

QMUL

ETHZ JRC MASA NESA LIUC Catania

Current Collaborations: EU consortia Lubos Buzna , Dirk Helbing (ETHZ)

Planned Collaborations (with H Touchette(QMUL) and L Buzna(ETHZ)): Roberta Sinatra, Vito Latora (Catania)

COST MP0 8 0 1 Workshop: Mod elling interd ep end ency b etw een Technolog ica l a nd Hum a n Sy stem s und er Crisis Scena rios

(ETH Zurich, June 8 -13, 20 0 9): http:/ / www.progettoreti.enea.it/ eventi/ Call_ for_ Papers_ rev1.htm

Activities for 2009

 Carvalho, Buzna, Bono, Gutierrez and Arrowsmith,

“Protection of Trans-European Gas Networks: The Hot Backbones” –draft available on the m anm ade server;

 With Buzna (ETHZ), Touchette (QMUL), Sinatra

(Catania) and Latora (Catania), “A model for

cascading failures on interdependent networks” – in progress;

 Modelling of the interdependencies which link social

systems to large Critical Infrastructures (COST Action MP0801 workshop) –submit paper

Motivation

 Critical infrastructure networks seem to have evolved under

pressure to minimize local rather than global failures;

 However, little is often known on how these local constrains

condition the networks at a global scale.

 Open questions:

 Which quantities could help to unravel the global structure of CI

networks?

 Is the protection of single nodes and links sufficient for the security of

these networks?

 Should we, instead, identify the backbone which, if not secured, will

bring the network down?

 Will the answer to these questions vary with the specific network under

study and methodology followed or are there universal mechanisms at play in cross-continent infrastructure networks which would suggest unified protection approaches?

Datasets: the gas network

Data provided by the JRC

Datasets: Gas Trade Network

Betweenness Centrality (Freeman 1977)

 Fraction of shortest paths between all possible pairs

• f nodes passing through a given edge e

( )

, st B s t st s t

e C σ σ

≠

= ∑

s t k

2 3 1 3 1 3 2 3 1 3 1 3 1 3

Max Flow/ Min Cut Theorem

1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Capacity Sink Source

http:/ / www-personal.umich.edu/ ~ladamic/

Minim um Cut =4 2

The Hot Backbones: Generalized Load

Data provided by the JRC

The Hot Backbones: Max-flow Betweenness Vitality

Data provided by the JRC

Discussion

 The Hot Backbones identify the backbones of the

network where:

 Most weighted shortest paths are going through;  Flow is lost if links are removed;

 These highlight the Achilles tendon of the network;  Draft has a much more complete analysis which I did

not discuss due to lack of time;

 Draft of paper available at the Manmade server,

QMUL folder under ‘Drafts’ –please let us know what you think!