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Projecting the Olympic Games: The Virtual Medal Table Gracenote - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Projecting the Olympic Games: The Virtual Medal Table Gracenote - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Projecting the Olympic Games: The Virtual Medal Table Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 1 Gracenote C o m p a ny O v e r v i e w Worlds leading entertainment and sports data company We power the worlds top media publishers,
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Gracenote is trusted by the largest entertainment brands on the planet, powering billion dollar platforms and services
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Prediction
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Projecting Olympic Medals
○ Economic Factors ○ Expertise ○ Results data
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Economic Factors
○ Needs to include previous Olympic performance ○ Static ○ No information on who wins medals
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Expertise
○ Available only just before the Olympic Games ○ Static ○ Potentially subject to recency bias
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Results
○ More information ○ Dynamic ○ Allocates medals
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Predicting Olympic medals using data
○ Relative Medal Table ○ Virtual Medal Table ○ Ranking methodology
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Virtual Medal Table 1.0
○ Developed in 2010 ○ Published by media ○ Uses weighted results data
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Virtual Medal Table 1.0
○ All significant events ○ Four year time period ○ Result ○ Competition importance ○ Time
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Virtual Medal Table 1.0 – how did it perform?
○ 54% of medals correct ○ 22% of gold medals correct ○ 78% of medallists in top-8 ○ 15 of top-20 NOCs within 4 medals
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Virtual Medal Table 1.0 – how did it perform?
○ 89% of all NOCs within 4 medals ○ Predicted ranking highly correlated ○ More accurate than econ models ○ Comparable with Sports Illustrated
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Virtual Medal Table improvements
○ Adding home advantage ○ Taking account of margins ○ Personal bests
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Virtual Medal Table 2016
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Virtual Medal Table 2016 - Insights
○ Best Games for the Netherlands & New Zealand ○ 25 medals for Korea for 8th successive Olympics ○ Asia to continue its rise ○ Four gold medals for Simone Biles ○ Most GBR medals in swimming since 1908
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Application
○ Media ○ Sports organisations ○ Anti-doping
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Room for further improvement
○ Generic model ○ Subjective weightings ○ Probabilities not possible
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What’s next?
○ Rio 2016 ○ Ranking methodologies
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