Projecting the Olympic Games: The Virtual Medal Table Gracenote - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Projecting the Olympic Games: The Virtual Medal Table Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 1

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Prediction Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 7

Projecting Olympic Medals ○ Economic Factors ○ Expertise ○ Results data Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 8

Economic Factors ○ Needs to include previous Olympic performance ○ Static ○ No information on who wins medals Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 9

Expertise ○ Available only just before the Olympic Games ○ Static ○ Potentially subject to recency bias Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 10

Results ○ More information ○ Dynamic ○ Allocates medals Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 11

Predicting Olympic medals using data ○ Relative Medal Table ○ Virtual Medal Table ○ Ranking methodology Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 12

Virtual Medal Table 1.0 ○ Developed in 2010 ○ Published by media ○ Uses weighted results data Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 13

Virtual Medal Table 1.0 ○ All significant events ○ Four year time period ○ Result ○ Competition importance ○ Time Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 14

Virtual Medal Table 1.0 – how did it perform? ○ 54% of medals correct ○ 22% of gold medals correct ○ 78% of medallists in top-8 ○ 15 of top-20 NOCs within 4 medals Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 15

Virtual Medal Table 1.0 – how did it perform? ○ 89% of all NOCs within 4 medals ○ Predicted ranking highly correlated ○ More accurate than econ models ○ Comparable with Sports Illustrated Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 16

Virtual Medal Table improvements ○ Adding home advantage ○ Taking account of margins ○ Personal bests Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 17

Virtual Medal Table 2016 Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 18

Virtual Medal Table 2016 - Insights ○ Best Games for the Netherlands & New Zealand ○ 25 medals for Korea for 8 th successive Olympics ○ Asia to continue its rise ○ Four gold medals for Simone Biles ○ Most GBR medals in swimming since 1908 Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 19

Application ○ Media ○ Sports organisations ○ Anti-doping Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 20

Room for further improvement ○ Generic model ○ Subjective weightings ○ Probabilities not possible Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 21

What’s next? ○ Rio 2016 ○ Ranking methodologies Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 22

Thanks for listening Gracenote Confidential Gracenote Confidential 23