Seiji Steimetz , Ph.D. Megan Anaya Professor & Chair of Economics Economics Student Cal State Long Beach Cal State Long Beach Presented at the 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
2019 #LBREF
National Economic Update 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Gross Domestic Product Real GDP ($ trillions) $21 Growth Rates 2016 2017 2018 $20.5 trillion GDP 1.6% 2.2% 2.9% $20 Personal $19 1.7% 2.6% 2.9% Income $18 GDP $17 % of 2018 GDP Component $16 Consumption 68.1% Investment 17.8% $15 Government 17.2% $14 Net Exports -3.1% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Unemployment 2018 Net Job Gains by Sector (1,000s) Unemployment Rate Professional and Business Services 537 18% Education & Health Services 499 Leisure & Hospitality 410 16% Manufacturing 242 14% Construction 223 12% Transportation & Warehousing 194.5 Financial Activities 102 10% Wholesale Trade 94.9 8% Other Services 78 Transportation Equipment 58.6 6% 3.9% Information 3 4% Utilities -0.6 Retail Trade -4.5 2% 2.43 million 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Total Job Gain U3 Rate U6 Rate Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Inflation & Federal Funds Rate • Current Inflation Rate: Inflation Rate FED Funds Rate 2.14% 4.0% 3.5% • Target Inflation Rate: 3.0% 2.00% 2.5% 2.0% • Target Unemployment: 1.5% 4.00% to 4.60% 1.0% 0.5% • Relaxation of 0.0% “Quantitative Easing" -0.5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); www.federalreserve.gov 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Consumer Confidence & Debt Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Debt ($ trillions) 102 Revolving Nonrevolving $3.5 101 2018: $3 tril. 5% Debt 100 Increase $2.5 99 98 $1.5 $1 tril. 97 96 $0.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Conference Board/OECD; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Housing Starts & Durable Goods Housing Starts (millions) Durable Goods Orders ($ bil.) 1.40 $280 $270 1.35 $260 1.30 $250 $240 1.25 $230 1.20 $220 $210 1.15 $200 1.10 $190 Source: Census Economic Indicators – Seasonally Adjusted 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Financial Markets S&P 500 Index 10yr – 3mo Treasury Rate Spread 3000 2% 2800 1% 2600 0% 2400 -0.04% “Yield Curve Inversion” 2200 -1% Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Long Beach Regional Economic Update 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Population, Household Income, Unemployment, and Education 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Population Population Index Racial/Ethnic Composition Long Beach LA County CA 2016 2017 50% 43.2% 39.5 mil. 108 40% 28.1% 106 30% 20% 104 13.2% 12.3% 10.2 mil. 10% 3.2% 102 0% 100 469,459 98 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Household and Per-Capita Income Median Household Income Median Per-Capita Income Long Beach LA County CA Long Beach LA County CA $75,000 $35,000 $70,000 $33,000 $65,000 $31,000 $60,000 $32,006 $29,000 $60,557 $55,000 $27,000 $50,000 $25,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Unemployment Unemployment Rate Long Beach LA County CA 14% Long Beach 12% Feb. 2019 4.2% 10% 8% 4.7% 6% 4% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Education Percentage Age 25+ with at least a Percentage Age 25+ with at least a High School Diploma Bachelor’s Degree Long Beach LA County CA Long Beach LA County CA 85% 34% 33% 32% 31.1% 79.8% 80% 31% 79.0% 30.1% 30% 29% 75% 28% 2016 2017 2016 2017 Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Jobs 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Job Sectors Long Beach Long Beach LA County California Major Occupation Sector Employees % % % Management, Business, 37.5% 37.0% 38.7% 86,720 Science, & Arts Service 20.3% 19.1% 18.6% 47,049 Sales & Office 22.6% 23.5% 22.5% 52,155 Natural Resources, 6.8% 7.7% 9.1% 15,613 Construction, & Maintenance Production, Transportation, 12.8% 12.7% 11.0% 29,688 & Material Moving Total Civilian 231,225 Employed Population Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Job Sector Patterns 2016-2017 Changes in Employment of Long Beach Residents Long Beach LA County CA 6% 4.1% 4% 1.7% 2% 0% -2% -4% -3.3% -6% -4.6% -8% -10% -10.4% -12% Management, Service Sales & Office Natural Resources, Production, Business, Science, & Construction, & Transportation, & Arts Maintenance Material Moving Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Wages Median Annual Wages Long Beach LA County California Management, Business, $62,061 $61,645 $67,561 Science, & Arts Service $21,542 $20,804 $21,330 Sales & Office $31,713 $31,046 $31,938 Natural Resources, $36,945 $32,016 $35,038 Construction, & Maintenance Production, Transportation, $29,458 $26,789 $30,207 & Material Moving Overall Median Wage $36,438 $35,110 $38,170 Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Wage Growth by Job Sector 2016-2017 Changes in Median Wages of Long Beach Residents Long Beach LA County CA 14.7% 14% 10.7% 12% 10% 8% 6.3% 6% 4% 2.2% 0.8% 2% 0% Management, Service Sales & Office Natural Resources, Production, Business, Science, & Construction, & Transportation, & Arts Maintenance Material Moving Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Employment Growth by Industry (2015-2017) Construction -5.3% Education, health, social assistance 8.4% Finance, insurance, real estate -2.2% Information 32.6% Leisure , accommodation, food services -11.2% Manufacturing -8.5% Other services 4.8% Professional, scientific, management 0.4% Public administration 50.7% Retail trade 6.0% Transportation, warehousing, utilities 22.9% Wholesale trade -24.2% Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Wage Growth by Industry (2015-2017) Construction 1.3% Education, health, social assistance 1.3% Finance, insurance, real estate 13.7% Information 1.2% Leisure, accommodation, food services -3.8% Manufacturing 21.2% Other services 27.3% Professional, scientific, management 14.0% Public administration -9.4% Retail trade -5.3% Transportation, warehousing, utilities -9.3% Wholesale trade 6.6% Source: Census American Community Survey 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Real Estate 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Home Prices Median Single Family Home Value Current Median Values 1yr % 5yr % $ Long Beach LA County CA All Home Types change change $628,900 Seal Beach $997,100 6.4% 4.4% $600,000 Huntington Beach $833,400 2.7% 3.9% Cypress $680,500 1.3% 5.0% $500,000 Long Beach $597,400 3.3% 5.9% $400,000 Lakewood $589,600 2.5% 5.7% Carson $548,600 5.2% 7.5% $300,000 Bellflower $527,600 3.3% 7.1% LA-Long Beach-Anaheim $200,000 $652,200 2.5% 6.2% Metropolitan Area 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Zillow Research/ZTRAX 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Apartment Rents Median Rent (Multi-Unit Buildings) Current Median Rents 2yr % $ Long Beach LA-LB-Anaheim Multi-Unit Buildings change Huntington Beach $2,235 -22.8% $2,300 $2,360 Carson $2,150 14.7% Lakewood $2,030 17.2% $2,100 Whittier $1,830 3.2% $1,900 Long Beach $1,800 10.8% $1,800 Paramount $1,635 6.3% $1,700 Bellflower $1,600 10.3% LA-Long Beach-Anaheim $2,360 6.2% $1,500 Metropolitan Area 2017 2018 2019 Source: Zillow Research/ZTRAX; PolicyMap 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
Residential Construction & Vacancy Residential Construction Permits Residential Vacancy Rates Long Beach LA County CA Single Unit Multi Unit 1.20% 1,200 1.10% 1,000 1.00% 800 0.90% 600 73 0.80% 400 128 0.75% 0.70% 200 0.60% 0 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Source: Census Building Permits Survey; Valassis Lists 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF
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