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Probability Basics Tushar Shanker Data Scientist DataCamp - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON Probability Basics Tushar Shanker Data Scientist DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Sample Space Sample Space S : Set of all possible outcomes DataCamp

  1. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON Probability Basics Tushar Shanker Data Scientist

  2. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Sample Space Sample Space S : Set of all possible outcomes

  3. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Probability Sample Space S : Set of all possible outcomes Probability P ( A ) : Likelihood of event A 0 ≤ P ( A ) ≤ 1 P ( S ) = 1 eg. P ( H ) + P ( T ) = 1

  4. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Probability Sample Space S : Set of all possible outcomes Probability P ( A ) : Likelihood of event A 0 ≤ P ( A ) ≤ 1 P ( S ) = 1 eg. P ( H ) + P ( T ) = 1

  5. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Mutually Exclusive Events Sample Space S : Set of all possible outcomes Probability P ( A ) : Likelihood of event A 0 ≤ P ( A ) ≤ 1 P ( S ) = 1 P ( H ) + P ( T ) = 1 For mutually exclusive events A and B : P ( A ∩ B ) = 0 P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )

  6. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Probability P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )

  7. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Using Simulation for Probability Estimation Steps for Estimating Probability: 1. Construct sample space or population. 2. Determine how to simulate one outcome. 3. Determine rule for success. 4. Sample repeatedly and count successes. 5. Calculate frequency of successes as an estimate of probability.

  8. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON Let's practice!

  9. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON More Probability Concepts Tushar Shanker Data Scientist

  10. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Conditional Probability Conditional Probability P ( A ∩ B ) P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B )

  11. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Conditional Probability Conditional Probability P ( A ∩ B ) P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B ) P ( B ∩ A ) P ( B ∣ A ) = P ( A ) P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( B ∩ A )

  12. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Bayes Rule Conditional Probability P ( A ∩ B ) P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B ) P ( B ∣ A ) P ( A ) Bayes' rule : P ( A ∣ B ) = P ( B )

  13. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Independent Events Independent Events P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( A ∩ B ) P ( A ) P ( B ) Conditional Probability: P ( A ∣ B ) = = = P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( B )

  14. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Solar Panels & Clean Vehicles Number of houses = 150

  15. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Solar Panels & Clean Vehicles 30 10 40 P (Solar) = P (Solar ∩ Hybrid, EV) + P (Solar ∩ No Hybrid, EV) = + = 150 150 150

  16. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Solar Panels & Clean Vehicles P (Solar ∩ Hybrid, EV) 30 P (Solar∣Hybrid, EV) = = = 0.375 P (Hybrid, EV) 80

  17. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON Let's practice!

  18. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON Data Generating Process Tushar Shanker Data Scientist

  19. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Simulation Steps 1. Define Possible Outcomes for Random Variables. 2. Assign Probabilities. 3. Define Relationships between Random Variables.

  20. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Data Generating Process

  21. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Cricket source: Wikipedia

  22. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Cricket

  23. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Cricket

  24. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON Let's practice!

  25. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON eCommerce Ad Simulation Tushar Shanker Data Scientist

  26. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python eCommerce Funnel

  27. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Signup Flow

  28. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python Purchase Flow

  29. DataCamp Statistical Simulation in Python STATISTICAL SIMULATION IN PYTHON Let's practice!

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