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Pricing Algorithms and Tacit Collusion Bruno Salcedo The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pricing Algorithms and Tacit Collusion Bruno Salcedo The Pennsylvania State University January 2016 /// The Making of the Fly listed in Amazon for $79.84 on 11/15/15 1 / 33 /// The Making of the Fly listed in Amazon for


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Pricing Algorithms and Tacit Collusion

Bruno Salcedo

The Pennsylvania State University January 2016

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Ü///

“The Making of the Fly” listed in Amazon for $79.84 on 11/15/15

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Ü///

“The Making of the Fly” listed in Amazon for $18,651,718.08 on 4/18/11

1 / 33

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  • Online retail (Ezrachi & Stucke, 2015)
  • Airlines (Borenstein, 2004)
  • High-frequency trading (Boehmer, Li & Saar, 2015)
  • Online auctions
  • Hierarchical firms

2 / 33

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SLIDE 5

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“We will not tolerate anticompetitive conduct, whether it occurs in a smoke-filled room or over the Internet using complex pricing

  • algorithms. American consumers have the right to a free and fair

marketplace online, as well as in brick and mortar businesses.” — Bill Baer, Department of Justice

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firm 2 firm 1 revision opportunity

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SLIDE 38

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SLIDE 39

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SLIDE 43

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key features

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key features

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  • 1. Responsiveness: algorithms rapidly react to market outcomes

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SLIDE 48

key features

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  • 1. Responsiveness: algorithms rapidly react to market outcomes
  • 2. Short-term commitment: algorithms cannot be revised too often

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SLIDE 49

key features

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  • 1. Responsiveness: algorithms rapidly react to market outcomes
  • 2. Short-term commitment: algorithms cannot be revised too often
  • 3. Long-term flexibility: algorithms can be revised over time

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SLIDE 50

key features

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  • 1. Responsiveness: algorithms rapidly react to market outcomes
  • 2. Short-term commitment: algorithms cannot be revised too often
  • 3. Long-term flexibility: algorithms can be revised over time
  • 4. Observability: rival’s algorithm can be decoded

5 / 33

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SLIDE 51

inevitability of collusion

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When demand shocks arrive much more frequently than algorithm revisions, the long-run joint profits from any subgame-perfect equi- librium are close to those of a monopolist

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SLIDE 52

inevitability of collusion

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When demand shocks arrive much more frequently than algorithm revisions, the long-run joint profits from any subgame-perfect equi- librium are close to those of a monopolist

6 / 33

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SLIDE 53

inevitability of collusion

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When demand shocks arrive much more frequently than algorithm revisions, the long-run joint profits from any subgame-perfect equi- librium are close to those of a monopolist

6 / 33

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SLIDE 54

inevitability of collusion

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2

When demand shocks arrive much more frequently than algorithm revisions, the long-run joint profits from any subgame-perfect equi- librium are close to those of a monopolist

6 / 33

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SLIDE 55

inevitability of collusion

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2

When demand shocks arrive much more frequently than algorithm revisions, the long-run joint profits from any subgame-perfect equi- librium are close to those of a monopolist

6 / 33

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SLIDE 56
  • utline
  • 1. introduction
  • 2. example
  • 3. model
  • 4. main result
  • 5. closing remarks

7 / 33

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SLIDE 57

word

  • 1. introduction
  • 2. example
  • 3. model
  • 4. main result
  • 5. closing remarks
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SLIDE 58

two-price two-period duopoly

b b

consumer 1 consumer 2

  • One consumer tonight and one consumer tomorrow night
  • Stage game is a prisoner’s dilemma

pH pL pH 2, 2 0, 3 pL 3, 0 1, 1

8 / 33

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SLIDE 59

perdon

b b

consumer 1 consumer 2 a0

1

b b

p1 p′

1

a0

2

b b

p2 p′

2

  • At the beginning of the game firm simultaneously choose pricing algorithms

– a price for tonight pj – a contingent price for tomorrow night p′

j(p−j)

pL pH pL pH pL ∗ pH pL ∗

9 / 33

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SLIDE 60

perdon

b b

consumer 1 consumer 2 with prob µ with prob µ a0

1

a0

2

b

p2 a′

1

b b

p1 p′

1

a′

2

b

p′

2

  • Exogenous stochastic revision opportunities each morning

revision no revision revision µ no revision µ 1 − 2µ

10 / 33

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SLIDE 61

perdon

b b

consumer 1 consumer 2 with prob µ with prob µ a0

1

a0

2

b b

p2 p′

2

a′

1

b

p1 a′

1

b

p′

1

  • Exogenous stochastic revision opportunities each morning

revision no revision revision µ no revision µ 1 − 2µ

10 / 33

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SLIDE 62

perdon

b b

consumer 1 consumer 2 with prob µ with prob 1 − 2µ a0

1

b b

p1 p′

1

a0

2

b

p2 a′

2

b

p′

2

  • Exogenous stochastic revision opportunities each morning

revision no revision revision µ no revision µ 1 − 2µ

10 / 33

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SLIDE 63

lower bound on profits

pL pH pL pH

pH pL pH 2, 2 0, 3 pL 3, 0 1, 1

  • Suppose firm 1 uses “tit for tat” and firm 2 has a revision on the first day

11 / 33

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SLIDE 64

lower bound on profits

pL pH pL pH

pH pL pH 2, 2 0, 3 pL 3, 0 1, 1

  • Suppose firm 1 uses “tit for tat” and firm 2 has a revision on the first day

– 2’s profits from choosing pL on day 1 are bounded above by ˆ vL

2 =

1

  • day 1

+ (1 − µ)1

day 2 1 doesn’t revise

+ µ3

  • day 2

1 revises

= 2 + 2µ

11 / 33

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SLIDE 65

lower bound on profits

pL pH pL pH

pH pL pH 2, 2 0, 3 pL 3, 0 1, 1

  • Suppose firm 1 uses “tit for tat” and firm 2 has a revision on the first day

– 2’s profits from choosing pL on day 1 are bounded above by ˆ vL

2 = 1 + (1 − µ)1 + µ3 = 2 + 2µ

– 2’s profits from choosing pH on day 1 and pL on day 2 are bounded below by vH =

  • day 1

+ (1 − µ)3

day 2 1 doesn’t revise

+ µ1

  • day 2

1 revises

= 3 − 2µ

11 / 33

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SLIDE 66

lower bound on profits

pL pH pL pH

pH pL pH 2, 2 0, 3 pL 3, 0 1, 1

  • Suppose firm 1 uses “tit for tat” and firm 2 has a revision on the first day

– 2’s profits from choosing pL on day 1 are bounded above by ˆ vL

2 = 1 + (1 − µ)1 + µ3 = 2 + 2µ

– 2’s profits from choosing pH on day 1 and pL on day 2 are bounded below by vH

2 = 0 + (1 − µ)3 + µ1 = 3 − 2µ

– If µ < 1/4 then vH

2 > ˆ

vL

2

11 / 33

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SLIDE 67

lower bound on profits

pL pH pL pH

pH pL pH 2, 2 0, 3 pL 3, 0 1, 1

  • Suppose firm 1 uses “tit for tat” and firm 2 has a revision on the first day

– If µ < 1/4 then firm 2 chooses pH on day 1

  • If µ < 1/4, firm 1 can guarantee profits above 2 by using “tit for tat”

– If firm 2 sets pL on both days, firm 1 makes 2 in profits – If firm 2 sets pM on at least one day, firm 1 makes at least 3 in profits – If firm 2 has a revision on day 1 it sets pH

12 / 33

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SLIDE 68

lower bound on profits

pL pH pL pH

pH pL pH 2, 2 0, 3 pL 3, 0 1, 1

  • Suppose firm 1 uses “tit for tat” and firm 2 has a revision on the first day

– If µ < 1/4 then firm 2 chooses pH on day 1

  • If µ < 1/4, firm 1 can guarantee profits above 2 by using “tit for tat”

If revisions are sufficiently unlikely, joint profits in any subgame- perfect equilibrium are strictly greater than 4

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SLIDE 69

word

  • 1. introduction
  • 2. example
  • 3. model
  • 4. main result
  • 5. closing remarks
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SLIDE 70
  • Two symmetric firms j ∈ {1, 2}
  • Continuous time t ∈ [0, ∞)
  • Consumers arrive randomly

– Poisson process with parameter λ > 0 – (yn) denotes sequence of arrival times – A single consumer arrives at each yn

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SLIDE 71

stage game

P = R+

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SLIDE 72

stage game

P = R+ πj : P2 → R+

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SLIDE 73

stage game

P = R+ πj : P2 → R+ Π =

  • π(p)
  • p ∈ P2

π1 π2

b π(p)

πM π

14 / 33

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SLIDE 74

pricing algorithms

  • Pricing algorithms set current prices contingent on the history of past prices
  • Finite automata a = (Ω, ω0, θ, α)

– Finite set of states Ω – Initial state ω0 – Pricing rule α : Ω → P – Measurable transition function θ : Ω × P → Ω

pM ∗ always monopolistic pj p−j ∗ else grim trigger pM pM ∗ ∗ ∗ two monopolistic

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SLIDE 75

dynamic game

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  • Firms simultaneously set algorithms at time t = 0 and can revise them at

exogenous stochastic times

– Poisson process with parameter µ > 0 – Arrival of revision is independent across firms and independent of consumer-arrival times

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SLIDE 76

dynamic game

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  • Firms simultaneously set algorithms at time t = 0 and can revise them at

exogenous stochastic times

  • A strategy sj : Hj → ∆(A) for firm j chooses algorithms

– As a function of past algorithms, prices, and number of past consumers

16 / 33

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SLIDE 77

dynamic game

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  • Firms simultaneously set algorithms at time t = 0 and can revise them at

exogenous stochastic times

  • A strategy sj : Hj → ∆(A) for firm j chooses algorithms

– As a function of past algorithms, prices, and number of past consumers – In this talk, not as a function of clock time of consumer and revision arrivals

16 / 33

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SLIDE 78

solution concept

  • Firms maximize (normalized) expected discounted profits

vj = r λ + r × E

  • n=1

exp(−ryn)πj(pn)

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SLIDE 79

solution concept

  • Firms maximize (normalized) expected discounted profits

vj = r λ + r × E

  • n=1

exp(−ryn)πj(pn)

  • =

r λ + r ×

  • n=1

E[ exp(−ryn) ] E[ πj(pn) ]

17 / 33

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SLIDE 80

solution concept

  • Firms maximize (normalized) expected discounted profits

vj = r λ + r × E

  • n=1

exp(−ryn)πj(pn)

  • =

r λ + r ×

  • n=1

E[ exp(−ryn) ] E[ πj(pn) ] = r λ + r ×

  • n=1
  • λ

λ + r n E[ πj(pn) ]

17 / 33

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SLIDE 81

solution concept

  • Firms maximize (normalized) expected discounted profits

vj = r λ + r ×

  • n=1
  • λ

λ + r n E[ πj(pn) ]

17 / 33

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SLIDE 82

solution concept

  • Firms maximize (normalized) expected discounted profits

vj = r λ + r ×

  • n=1
  • λ

λ + r n E[ πj(pn) ]

  • Sub-game perfect Nash equilibria s ∈ S∗

17 / 33

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SLIDE 83

solution concept

  • Firms maximize (normalized) expected discounted profits

vj = r λ + r ×

  • n=1
  • λ

λ + r n E[ πj(pn) ]

  • Sub-game perfect Nash equilibria s ∈ S∗
  • Using Levy (2015) and Mertens and Parthasarathy (1987)

If the profit function π is bounded (and Borel measurable), then the dynamic game has an equilibrium

17 / 33

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SLIDE 84

word

  • 1. introduction
  • 2. example
  • 3. model
  • 4. main result
  • 5. closing remarks
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SLIDE 85

inevitability of collusion

  • Fix any interest rate r and any constant ε > 0

18 / 33

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SLIDE 86

inevitability of collusion

  • Fix any interest rate r and any constant ε > 0
  • Let t0 be the (random) first date at which each of the

two firms has had at least one revision opportunity

18 / 33

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SLIDE 87

inevitability of collusion

  • Fix any interest rate r and any constant ε > 0
  • Let t0 be the (random) first date at which each of the

two firms has had at least one revision opportunity

  • If costumers arrive frequently λ > rλ
  • And revisions are infrequent 0 < µ < r ¯

µ(ε, λ)

18 / 33

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SLIDE 88

inevitability of collusion

  • Fix any interest rate r and any constant ε > 0
  • Let t0 be the (random) first date at which each of the

two firms has had at least one revision opportunity

  • If costumers arrive frequently λ > rλ
  • And revisions are infrequent 0 < µ < r ¯

µ(ε, λ)

  • For any date τ ≥ t0 the joint continuation profits are

closer than ε from the joint monopolistic profits with probability greater than (1 − ε) in any equilibrium, i.e. inf

s∈S∗ Pr s

  • ¯

vτ > ¯ πM − ε

  • > 1 − ε

18 / 33

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SLIDE 89

inevitability of collusion

π1 π2 πM π

19 / 33

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SLIDE 90

inevitability of collusion

π1 π2 πM π

19 / 33

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SLIDE 91

step 1

π1 π2 πM π

Πj = v(a)

  • a−j ∈ BR(aj)

20 / 33

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SLIDE 92

step 1

π1 π2 πM π

If λ r > λ, then Πj intersects the Pareto frontier

21 / 33

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SLIDE 93

step 2

  • Suppose current algorithms induce a sequence of profits πn
  • Expected discounted profits can be decomposed as

vj = E      exp(−rz1)

  • discounting

to first event

   10 · r λπ1

j + w0

  • consumer

+ 11 · w1

j + 12 · w2 j

  • revisions

        

slide-94
SLIDE 94

step 2

  • Suppose current algorithms induce a sequence of profits πn
  • Expected discounted profits can be decomposed as

vj = E      exp(−rz1)

  • discounting

to first event

   10 · r λπ1

j + w0

  • consumer

+ 11 · w1

j + 12 · w2 j

  • revisions

         = E[ exp(−rz1) ]

  • discounting

   Pr(0) r λπ1

j + w0 j

  • consumer

+ Pr(1)w1

j + Pr(2)w2 j

  • revsion

   

22 / 33

slide-95
SLIDE 95

step 2

  • Suppose current algorithms induce a sequence of profits πn
  • Expected discounted profits can be decomposed as

vj = E      exp(−rz1)

  • discounting

to first event

   10 · r λπ1

j + w0

  • consumer

+ 11 · w1

j + 12 · w2 j

  • revisions

         = E[ exp(−rz1) ]

  • discounting

   Pr(0) r λπ1

j + w0 j

  • consumer

+ Pr(1)w1

j + Pr(2)w2 j

  • revsion

    = r r + λ + 2µπ1

j +

λ r + λ + 2µw0

j

  • consumer

+ µ r + λ + 2µw1

j +

µ r + λ + 2µw2

j

  • revision

22 / 33

slide-96
SLIDE 96

step 2

  • Suppose current algorithms induce a sequence of profits πn
  • Expected discounted profits can be decomposed as

vj = r r + λ + 2µπ1

j +

λ r + λ + 2µw0

j +

µ r + λ + 2µw1

j +

µ r + λ + 2µw2

j

22 / 33

slide-97
SLIDE 97

step 2

  • Suppose current algorithms induce a sequence of profits πn
  • Expected discounted profits can be decomposed as

vj = r r + λ + 2µπ1

j +

λ r + λ + 2µw0

j +

µ r + λ + 2µw1

j +

µ r + λ + 2µw2

j

  • Iterating this process yields

vj = r r + 2µ(1 − β)

  • k=0

βkπk

j +

2µ r + 2µ ˜ wj where β = λ/(r + λ + 2µ)

22 / 33

slide-98
SLIDE 98

step 2

π1 π2

b π(p0)

πM π grim-trigger algorithm a0

j

p0

j

p0

−j

∗ else

In any equilibrium,if firm −j observes a0

j , it chooses an algorithm

that mimics a0

−j for at least N = c1(p0) r

µ − c0 consumers

23 / 33

slide-99
SLIDE 99

step 2

π1 π2

b b π(p0)

πM π grim-trigger algorithm a0

j

p0

j

p0

−j

∗ else

If µ r < ¯ µ(ε, λ), then continuation values at the moment of each revision after the first one are close to the Pareto frontier of Πj

24 / 33

slide-100
SLIDE 100

step 3

t ¯ vt πM

Revision continuation joint profits after t0 are close enough to πM so that, after the second revision, long run profits remain high

25 / 33

slide-101
SLIDE 101

additional results

  • The four key features of the model are necessary for the main result

  • Firms are willing to make their algorithms transparent and benefit from being

less flexible ⊲

  • Pricing algorithms enable collusion between impatient firms

26 / 33

slide-102
SLIDE 102

word

  • 1. introduction
  • 2. example
  • 3. model
  • 4. main result
  • 5. closing remarks
slide-103
SLIDE 103

tacit collusion

  • Internal organization of the firm matters
  • Pricing algorithms provide predictability and stability
  • May not only enable tacit collusion, but inevitably lead to it in the long run
  • Regulation of transparent/public algorithms and algorithm patterns

27 / 33

slide-104
SLIDE 104

efficient renegotiation

  • Explicit negotiation protocols leading to efficient outcomes
  • Inefficient equilibria exist in repeated games because

– Strategies are chosen independently – There are no opportunities to renegotiate

  • The ability to revise initial choices and learn about future intentions of other

players can restore efficiency in the long run

28 / 33

slide-105
SLIDE 105

work in progress

  • Minor extensions

– Calibration – General profit functions – Restriction to pure strategies

29 / 33

slide-106
SLIDE 106

work in progress

  • Minor extensions

– Calibration – General profit functions – Restriction to pure strategies

  • For the next paper

– Can learning substitute observability? – Can incomplete information substitute commitment?

29 / 33

slide-107
SLIDE 107

Thank you for your attention!

paper available at brunosalcedo.com contact me at bruno@psu.edu Ü///

slide-108
SLIDE 108

tightness

  • Responsiveness
  • Observability
  • Short-term commitment
  • Long-term flexibility

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slide-109
SLIDE 109

tightness

  • Responsiveness

– Suppose firms choose prices instead of algorithms – Deviating from the static equilibrium of the stage game would be costly if there are no revisions

  • Observability
  • Short-term commitment
  • Long-term flexibility

31 / 33

slide-110
SLIDE 110

tightness

  • Responsiveness

– Suppose firms choose prices instead of algorithms – Deviating from the static equilibrium of the stage game would be costly if there are no revisions – Not necessary for all games (Ambrus & Ishii, 2015)

  • Observability
  • Short-term commitment
  • Long-term flexibility

31 / 33

slide-111
SLIDE 111

tightness

  • Responsiveness
  • Observability

– If firm 2 cannot decode firm 1’s algorithm it cannot react to it

  • Short-term commitment
  • Long-term flexibility

31 / 33

slide-112
SLIDE 112

tightness

  • Responsiveness
  • Observability

– If firm 2 cannot decode firm 1’s algorithm it cannot react to it – Might not be necessary under imperfect monitoring (work in progress)

  • Short-term commitment
  • Long-term flexibility

31 / 33

slide-113
SLIDE 113

tightness

  • Responsiveness
  • Observability
  • Short-term commitment

– If firm 2 believes that firm 1 will change its algorithm back to “always Bertrand” it is optimal to do the same – The result hinges on high commitment (µ ≈ 0)

  • Long-term flexibility

31 / 33

slide-114
SLIDE 114

tightness

  • Responsiveness
  • Observability
  • Short-term commitment
  • Long-term flexibility

– If there are no revisions choosing “always Bertrand” is an equilibrium – The result hinges on imperfect commitment (µ > 0)

31 / 33

slide-115
SLIDE 115

asymmetry and leadership

  • Fix any any λ and r
  • Take limits when firm 1 is completely committed and

firm 2 can revise arbitrarily often

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slide-116
SLIDE 116

asymmetry and leadership

  • Fix any any λ and r
  • Take limits when firm 1 is completely committed and

firm 2 can revise arbitrarily often

  • Firm 1’s expected discounted profits in any equilibrium

become weakly greater than its dynamic Stackelberg payoff, i.e., lim

µ1→0 lim µ2→∞ inf s∈S∗ v1(s) ≥ πS 1 (λ, r)

where πS

1 (λ, r) := max

  • vj(a)
  • a−j ∈ arg max

a′

−j

v−j(aj, a′

−j)

32 / 33

slide-117
SLIDE 117

impatient firms

  • Fix any any λ and r
  • Take limits as revision opportunities become arbitrarily

frequent

33 / 33

slide-118
SLIDE 118

impatient firms

  • Fix any any λ and r
  • Take limits as revision opportunities become arbitrarily

frequent

  • There joint profits in the best symmetric equilibrium

converge to the joint monopolistic profits, i.e., lim

µ→0 sup

  • v
  • (v, v) ∈ V ∗(λ, µ, r)
  • = πM

33 / 33