Presentation to the California ISO Governing Board June 28, 2000 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presentation to the California ISO Governing Board June 28, 2000 Presentation to ISO Governing Board 1 Equivalent $/Mwh Based on Generic $4/Kw-month 6000 5000 $4,800 4000 Equivalent $/Mwh 3000 $2,400 2000 $1,600 $1,200 $960 $800

SLIDE 1

Presentation to ISO Governing Board

Presentation to the California ISO Governing Board

June 28, 2000

SLIDE 2

Presentation to ISO Governing Board Equivalent $/Mwh

Based on Generic $4/Kw-month

$4,800 $2,400 $1,600 $1,200 $960 $800 $686 $600 $533 $480

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Hours Utilized Equivalent $/Mwh Current $750/Mwh Price Caps

SLIDE 3

Presentation to ISO Governing Board

Actual CAISO Hourly Loads Above 40,000Mw

April 1999 - March 2000

39,000 40,000 41,000 42,000 43,000 44,000 45,000 46,000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 Hours At or Above Load Level MW

SLIDE 4

Presentation to ISO Governing Board

Average Cost per Mwh of $4/Kw-mo Based on CAlSO Load Shape

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Last Megawatts of Supply $/Mwh

SLIDE 5

Presentation to ISO Governing Board June 13, 2000 Contingency Exposure

$- $100.00 $200.00 $300.00 $400.00 $500.00 $600.00 $700.00 $800.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Price $/Mwh

Day Ahead MCP Real Time Price

SLIDE 6

Presentation to ISO Governing Board

“To the extent buyer’s are hedged, price spikes in the energy market will not affect them”

SLIDE 7

Presentation to ISO Governing Board

Concentration of Generation Ownership at the California ISO

24% 27% 2% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 3% 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% SCE PGE SDGE AES/Williams Duke Reliant Southern Dynegy Calpine Thermo Percent Ownership

SLIDE 8

Presentation to ISO Governing Board

Utilities’ Ability to Hedge High Energy Costs

* CalPX Block Forward Market

Illustrative

IOU “Gross” Load

40,000 MW

IOU Generation

(owned & controlled) 20,000 MW

IOU BFM* Authority

7,500 MW

IOU “Net” Load

20,000 MW 12,500 MW

IOU “Net” Short Position

SLIDE 9

Presentation to ISO Governing Board

$38.27 $137.33 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1/4/00 1/18/00 2/1/00 2/15/00 2/29/00 3/14/00 3/28/00 4/11/00 4/25/00 5/9/00 5/23/00 6/6/00 6/20/00 Date Close $/Mwh

Q2 PV Nymex Futures Q3 PV Nymex Futures

SLIDE 10

Presentation to ISO Governing Board