Presentation to 90 by 2030 Johannesburg 28 November 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presentation to 90 by 2030 Johannesburg 28 November 2017 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Renewable energy job statistics Presentation to 90 by 2030 Johannesburg 28 November 2017 Introduction IRP2016 update contains South Africas energy transition whichever scenario we choose. 27,5 GW of coal-fired plant planned to

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SLIDE 1

Renewable energy job statistics

Presentation to 90 by 2030

Johannesburg 28 November 2017

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SLIDE 2

Introduction

  • IRP2016 update contains South Africa’s “energy transition” whichever

scenario we choose.

– 27,5 GW of coal-fired plant planned to be decommissioned – Replaced by lots of renewables (“least cost”) or nuclear (“forced nuclear”)

  • Challenge is that IRP doesn't’t consider socio-economic implications in its

calculations

– The “jobs lost” and “jobs created” narrative only tells half the story

  • Coal miners don’t see any PV or wind farms in MPM
  • No coherent industrialization strategy whether we go mass renewables or nuclear
  • Can the current mining work-force be re-skilled for the 4IR?
  • Try to set out some of the stats from South Africa’s experience in

renewables so far, and elsewhere in the world

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SLIDE 3

South African tariff path

Soure: Bischof-Niemz analysis

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Significant reductions in actual tariffs from the RE IPP Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) …

Actual tariffs: new wind/solar PV 40% cheaper than new coal in RSA

Results of Department of Energy’s RE IPP Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) and Coal IPP Proc. Programme

1 2 3 4 5

  • 83%
  • 59%

Nov 2015 0.62 0.62 Aug 2014 0.69 0.87 Aug 2013 0.87 1.17 Mar 2012 1.19 2.18 Nov 2011 1.51 3.65 Wind Solar PV

Notes: Exchange rate of 14 USD/ZAR assumed Sources: http://www.energy.gov.za/files/renewable-energy-status-report/Market-Overview-and-Current-Levels-of-Renewable-Energy- Deployment-NERSA.pdf; http://www.saippa.org.za/Portals/24/Documents/2016/Coal%20IPP%20factsheet.pdf; http://www.ee.co.za/wp- content/uploads/2016/10/New_Power_Generators_RSA-CSIR-14Oct2016.pdf; StatsSA on CPI; CSIR analysis

  • 40%

Baseload Coal IPP 1.03 Wind IPP 0.62 Solar PV IPP 0.62

… have made new solar PV & wind power 40% cheaper than new coal in South Africa today

Actual average tariffs in R/kWh (Apr-2016-R) Actual average tariffs in R/kWh (Apr-2016-R)

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SLIDE 4

REIPPP job stats

Preferred Bidders Economic Development Solar Photovoltaic

Bid Window 4 Bid Window 3 Bid Window 2 Bid Window 1 MW allocation 415 MW 435 MW 417 MW 632 MW Local Content Value (ZAR Millions) R 4 319 R 3 698 R 4 943 R 6 563 Local Content % 64,7% 53,8% 53,4% 38,4% Job Creation: Construction (Citizens) 3 825 2 119 2 270 2 381 Job Creation: Operations (Citizens) 9 273 7 513 3 809 6 117

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Preferred Bidders Economic Development Onshore Wind

Bid Window 4 Bid Window 3 Bid Window 2 Bid Window 1 MW allocation 676 MW 787 MW 563 MW 634 MW Local Content Value (ZAR Millions) R 5 146 R 6 283 R 4 817 R 2 727 Local Content % 44,6% 46,9% 48,1% 27,4% Job Creation: Construction (Citizens) 2 831 2 612 1 787 1 810 Job Creation: Operations (Citizens) 8 161 8 506 2 238 2 461

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Preferred Bidders Job Creation per Province (1)

* 1 job = 12 person-months and 1 person-month = 160 working hours (1) Jobs for RSA Citizens Province Jobs* during Construction Period Jobs* during Operations Period Eastern Cape 1 848 5 611 Free State 30 30 Mpumalanga 149 1 947 Northern Cape 4 808 11 823 TOTAL 6 835 19 411

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  • Has created 31 207 job-years since

inception for SA citizens

  • SED contributions of R357,4m & ED

contributions of R115,2m

  • Carbon emission reductions of 15,4

Mtons CO2 since inception

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SLIDE 5

Non-REIPPP job stats

Project Size kW Time - hours Employees Person Hours Person Years Person Yrs / MW Project 1 5000 960 25 24000 12.50 2.50 Most efficient Project 2 1150 460 30 13800 7.19 6.25 less efficient Project 3 1000 640 15 9600 5.00 5.00 More efficient Project 4 1100 800 15 12000 6.25 5.68 Project 5 784 523 20 10453 5.44 6.94 Project 6 550 367 20 7333 3.82 6.94 Project 7 666 444 20 8880 4.63 6.94 Project 8 380 253 20 5067 2.64 6.94 Project 9 340 227 20 4533 2.36 6.94 Project 10 57 240 8 1920 1.00 17.54 More Jobs Residential 3 16 4 64 0.03 11.11 More Jobs PV Embedded 7.53 REIPP 4.56 65% more Total kW O&M Employees Person Hours Person Years Person Years / MW Solar PV O&M - 1 12000 Direct 10 1920 10 0.83 12000 Indirect 10 1920 10 0.83 20 3840 20 1.67 Solar PV O&M - 2 10000 Direct 3 1920 3 0.30 10000 Indirect 5 1920 5 0.50 8 3840 8.00 0.80 PV Embedded 1.23 REIPP 0.59 104% more EPC O&M

Employment / MWp Per Year

EMBEDDED PV VS REIPP PV JOB INTENSITY

The Rise of Rooftop Solar PV

  • PQRS estimate as at November 2016 is

~280MW of rooftop PV capacity

  • SAPVIA ‘legally’ registered installations as

at August 2016 is ~38MW Uncertainty of capacity = uncertainty around number of current jobs hinders the planning of future skills needs and employment estimates!

  • Delays in REIPPP resolution on R3,5/4/4,5 has seen this market shed manufacturing

jobs

  • Eskom (and municipal) tariff increases and falls in solar & wind tariff has triggered rise
  • f rooftop PV installation
  • Unregulated and hence difficult to pin down accurate job statistics
  • How large potential market going forwards for both creation of Black Industrialists and

local manufacturing

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SLIDE 6

Job creation stats

(Shell/DOE/McKinsey deep-dive 2014)

2,542 826 4,681 24,745 28,513 6,401 27,190 8,724 Potential jobs (Direct1) Capex Job years per GW installed Opex Annual jobs per TWh 119 107 60 Onshore Wind 127 Shale gas3 Coal mining 49 CCGT2 32 Coal2 28 Nuclear2 Solar CSP 133 Solar PV

Localised at 5GW Potentially localisable - Easy Potentially localisable - Collaboration Potentially localisable - Significant investment Do not try

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SLIDE 7

Global growth in deployment

  • f solar & wind

Soure: Bischof-Niemz analysis

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World: In 2016, 124 GW of new wind and solar PV capacity installed globally

Total South African power system (approx. 45 GW) 2016

124

70 2015

120

63 57 2014

91

51 54 40 2013

73

35 38 2012

76

45 31 2011

71

41 30 2010

56

39 17 2009

46

39 7 2008

33

27 7 2007

22

20 3 2006

17

15 2 2005

13

12 1 2004

9

8 1 2003

9

8 1 2002

8

7 0 2001

7

7 2000

4

4

Wind Solar PV

Sources: GWEC; EPIA; BNEF; CSIR analysis

Global annual new capacity in GW/yr

This is all very new: Roughly 80% of the globally existing solar PV capacity was installed during the last five years

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SLIDE 8

Global stats

  • Global RE sector employed 9,8 million people in 2016 – 1,1%

increase over 2015

  • Solar PV is the largest employers.
  • In stark contrast with coal industry jobs which saw major

decline in China, India, Europe and USA due to closure of power plant closure, overcapacity and mining mechanization .

  • Global oil & gas facing similar pressures due to low prices

and oversupply

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SLIDE 9

The energy transition

  • IRP 2016 Update envisions the closure of 27,5 GW of coal fired plant by
  • 2040. The consequences on the economies seem to vary

– Loss of up to 30 000 Eskom and associated supplier jobs (CTF February 2017) – Estimates of between 60 - 65,000 job losses in the coal mining industry up to 2040

  • However maintaining the status quo on Eskom operations will have

consequences to job statistics in South Africa

– Up to 47,000 jobs at risk if Eskom gets 19,9% increase (COM, October 2017)

  • No strategic plan for reskilling at present
  • Too simplistic an approach to expect renewable energy to be the silver

bullet

– Eskom price path is an effective job killer no matter how much excess capacity is available – Renewable energy’s most powerful economic enabler is unlocking parts of the economy through low prices and flexibility