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Presentation 2014 Q3 Results Analyst Meeting and 2015 Business Plan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presentation 2014 Q3 Results Analyst Meeting and 2015 Business Plan 1 Disclaimer The information (Confidential Information) contained in this presentation is strictly confidential and is provided by Ananda Development Public Company Limited


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1

Presentation

2014 Q3 Results Analyst Meeting and 2015 Business Plan

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SLIDE 2

Disclaimer

2

The information (“Confidential Information”) contained in this presentation is strictly confidential and is provided by Ananda Development Public Company Limited (the “Company”) to you solely for your reference. Neither this presentation nor any part thereof may be (i) used or relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose; (ii) copied, photocopied, duplicated or otherwise reproduced in any form or by any means; or (iii) redistributed, passed on or otherwise disseminated, to any other person either in your organization or elsewhere, without the prior written consent of the Company. By attending this presentation, participants agree not to remove this document, or any materials provided in connection herewith, from the conference room where such documents are provided without express consent from the

  • Company. Although care has been taken to ensure that the Confidential Information in this presentation is accurate, and that the opinions expressed are fair and

reasonable, the Confidential Information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, has not been independently verified and it may not contain all material information concerning the Company. None of the Company, or any of their respective members, directors, officers, employees or affiliates nor any other person accepts any liability (in negligence, or otherwise) whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation for sale or subscription of or solicitation or invitation of any offer to or recommendation to buy or subscribe for any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision in relation thereto in Thailand, United States or any other jurisdiction. Any such purchase should be made solely on the basis of the information contained in the announcements to the Stock Exchange of Thailand relating to such securities. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information set forth in this presentation or on its completeness. This presentation contains projections and forward‐looking statements that reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on a number of estimates and current assumptions which are subject to business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies as well as various risks and these may change over time and in many cases are outside the control of the Company. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. No assurance can be given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company's assumptions are correct. Such forward‐looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and accordingly, the actual results, financial condition, performance or achievements of the Company may differ materially from those forecasted and projected or in the forward‐looking statements.

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SLIDE 3

Agenda

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  • 1. Q3 Financial Results
  • 2. Q3 Detail
  • 1. Revenue
  • 2. Presales
  • 3. Cancelation Rate
  • 4. Mortgage Rejection Rate
  • 5. Backlog
  • 3. 2015 Business Plan
  • 4. Five Year Plan
  • 6. Bond
  • 7. Macro
  • 8. Summary
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SLIDE 4

4

3Q/2014 Financial Statements

3Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2013 % Q-o-Q % Y-o-Y M Baht % M Baht % M Baht %

Total revenue

2,024 100% 2,519 100% 1,127 100% (20%) 80%

Gain on land sale1

110 5% 0% 0% N/A N/A

Other incomes

59 3% 26 1% 8 1% 124% 596%

Gross Profit 2

735 40% 900 36% 412 37% (18%) 78%

SG&A

417 21% 483 19% 460 41% (14%) (9%)

Selling expenses

203 10% 231 9% 234 21% (12%) (13%)

Administrative expenses

214 11% 252 10% 225 20% (15%) (5%)

Other expenses

0% 1 0% 18 2% (100%) (100%)

Share of Profit (Loss)

(132) (7%) (10) 0% (12) (1%) N/A N/A

EBIT

354 17% 432 17% (70) (6%) (18%) N/A

Interest expenses

56 3% 56 2% 43 4% 0% 29%

EBT

298 15% 376 15% (113) (10%) (21%) N/A

Tax

73 24% 58 15% (17) N/A 26% N/A

Net Profit (Loss)

225 11% 319 13% (96) (9%) (29%) N/A

Earnings per share (baht) 0.07 0.10 (0.03)

(29%) N/A

Note: 1 Gross land price is 1,285 M Baht.

2 Excluded gain on land sale and other incomes

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5

9M/2014 Financial Statements

9M2014 9M2013 % Y-o-Y M Baht % M Baht %

Total revenue

6,333 100% 3,123 100% 103%

Gain on land sale1

110 2% 0% N/A

Other incomes

99 2% 33 1% 204%

Gross Profit2

2,235 36% 1,180 38% 89%

SG&A

1,322 21% 1,228 39% 8%

Selling expenses

630 10% 608 19% 4%

Administrative expenses

692 11% 620 20% 12%

Other expenses

3 0% 112 4% (97%)

Share of Profit (Loss)

(151) (2%) (12) 0% N/A

EBIT

967 15% (139) (4%) N/A

Interest expenses

153 2% 58 2% 162%

EBT

814 13% (197) (6%) N/A

Tax

160 20% (10) N/A N/A

Net Profit (Loss)

655 10% (187) (6%) N/A

Earnings per share (baht)

0.20 (0.06) N/A

Note: 1 Gross land price is 1,285 M Baht.

2 Excluded gain on land sale and other incomes

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6

3Q/2014 Financial Highlight

3Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2013 % Q-o-Q % Y-o-Y

M Baht M Baht M Baht Cash balance 1,579 2,441 1,194 (35%) 32% Assets 16,337 16,332 12,558 0% 30% Interest bearing debts 7,797 7,976 4,758 (2%) 64% Liabilities 10,070 10,191 7,679 (1%) 31% Shareholders' equity 6,266 6,141 4,879 2% 29% D/E ratio (times) 1.6 1.7 1.6 (3%) 2% Net IBDE ratio (times) 1.0 0.9 0.7 10% 36%

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2014 Business Plan – Quarterly Revenues

7

2014 Revenue target between 9,500 and 10,500 M Baht

Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Quarter 1 1,376 338 1,714 Quarter 2 1,780 645 2,425 Quarter 3 Guidance 1,164 750 1,914 Quarter 3 Actual 968 699 1,667 Quarter 4 3,748 478 4,226 Grand Total 7,872 2,160 10,032

Q3/2014 Revenues below our guidance 13% Full year guidance increased 11%

  • 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 1Q14 (A) 2Q14 (A) 3Q14 (F) 3Q14 (A) 4Q14 (F) Unit : Mil Baht Condo Landed property

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4Q2014 Revenue Sources and Risks

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Source Begins Revenue to achieve in the next 3 months (M Baht) Backlog (M Baht) Remaining to be transferred after year 2014 %Remaining to be transferred/ Project Value Risk Note

Q1

540 280 344 4% Sales Risk Remainder of year to sell

Q1

  • 79

3% Sales Risk Remainder of year to sell

Q2

266 389 368 25% Household Debt

Q4

1,493 1,870 1,764 54% Household Debt

Q4

1,414 1,779 2,290 62% Construction Risk

Q1

478 801 5,814 68% Sales Risk Remainder of year to sell

Total 4,226 5,119 10,659

Updated: Sep 30, 2014

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2014 Business Plan – Quarterly Presales

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2014 Presales target between 19,500 and 20,500 M Baht

Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Quarter 1 1,463 679 2,142 Quarter 2 1,050 621 1,671 Quarter 3 Guidance 500 550 1,050 Quarter 3 Actual 10,901 644 11,545 Quarter 4 4,231 541 4,773 Grand Total 17,646 2,486 20,131

Q3/2014 Presales above our guidance 1,000% Full year guidance increased 73%

  • 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1Q14 (A) 2Q14 (A) 3Q14 (F) 3Q14 (A) 4Q14 (F) Unit : Mil Baht Condo Landed property

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SLIDE 10

Cancellations

10

Updated: Sep 30, 2014

Note: % Cancellation Rates are calculated by cancelled value divided by total presales

% Cancellation Rate (Q3/2014)

1.0%

Condo

9.0%

Housing

1.5%

Total

Cancelled Value: 400 M Baht Cancelled Value: 270 M Baht

% Cancellation Rate (Q2/2014)

1.8% 4.9% 2.1%

Cancelled Value: 670 M Baht Cancelled Value: 551 M Baht Cancelled Value: 128 M Baht Cancelled Value: 679 M Baht

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Mortgage Rejection Rate

11

Updated: Sep 30, 2014

Note: % Mortgage Rejection Rates are shown by units

% Mortgage Rejection Rate (Q3/2014)

2.2%

Condo

21.2%

Housing

11.1%

Total

% Mortgage Rejection Rate (Q2/2014)

0.0% 19.8% 4.3%

Transferred: 264 units/ No. of customers rejected for mortgage: 6 Transferred: 697 units/ No. of customers rejected for mortgage: 0 Transferred: 190 units/ No. of customers rejected for mortgage: 51 Transferred: 184 units/ No. of customers rejected for mortgage: 40 Transferred: 454 units/ No. of customers rejected for mortgage: 57 Transferred: 881 units/ No. of customers rejected for mortgage: 40

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Current Projects >> 2014 Sales in 10 Months

12

Updated: Oct 31, 2014

Project Launched Value (M Baht) %Net Sold Net Sales (M Baht) Backlog (M Baht) Unsold Inventory (M Baht) %Transfer AD2: Ideo Verve Ratchaprarop Nov-08 2,153 100.0% 14

  • 100.0%

AD3: Ideo Mobi Sukhumvit Feb-12 3,433 96.7% 471 131 112 92.9% AD3: Ideo Mobi Phayathai Feb-12 1,465 96.9% 75 58 45 93.0% AD3: Ideo Mobi Sathorn Feb-12 1,888 100.0% 1 58

  • 96.9%

AD3: Ideo Mobi Rama 9 Feb-12 2,897 90.5% 339 164 273 84.9% ADO: Atoll (Housing) Feb-13 8,487 36.2% 1,429 725 5,416 27.7% AD2: Ashton Morph Mar-13 2,918 97.3% (26)

  • 79

97.3% AD 14: Elio Sukhumvit 64 Mar-13 1,488 82.9% 144 321 256 61.3% AD14: Ideo Sathorn – Tha Phra Jul-13 3,666 49.1% 77 1,799 1,868

  • AD14: Elio Del Ray

Aug-13 3,257 62.2% 740 2,038 1,238

  • AD 15: Ideo Wutthakat

Aug-13 2,154 47.2% 240 1,017 1,139

  • AD15: Ideo Mobi Charun-

Interchange Oct-13 3,688 70.3% 408 2,595 1,177

  • AD16: Ideo Q Ratchatewi Oct-13

2,020 99.3% (14) 2,005 15

  • AD16: Ideo Q Chula-

Samyan Oct-13 6,774 96.4% 169 6,528 245

  • Sub total

46,287 4,068 17,440 11,782

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2014 New Launched Projects

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Updated: Oct 31, 2014

Project Launched Value (M Baht) %Net Sold

Net Sales (M Baht) Backlog (M Baht) Unsold Inventory (M Baht) %Transfer AD17: Ashton Asoke1 Sep-14 6,701 96.2% 6,448 6,448 253

  • AD17: Ideo Q Siam-

Ratchathewi Sep-14 3,811 99.8% 3,802 3,802 9

  • AD16: Ideo Mobi Wongsawang-

Interchange Sep-14 1,814 61.3% 1,112 1,112 702

  • AD16: Ideo Mobi Sukhumvit

Eastgate Sep-14 2,624 41.5% 1,088 1,088 1,537

  • Sub total (New Launched)

14,950 12,449 12,449 2,501

Grand total 61,266 16,517 29,889 14,283

Note: 1 Increased selling price by 6% from initial plan

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14

Ananda Member Club Event

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SLIDE 15

15

Paragon Event

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SLIDE 16

16

Ashton Asoke

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SLIDE 17

17

Ashton Asoke

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SLIDE 18

18

Ideo Q Siam Ratchathewi

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SLIDE 19

19

Ideo Q Siam Ratchathewi

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SLIDE 20

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Ideo Mobi Wongsawang-Interchange

WONGSAWANG ROAD

KING MONGKUT’S UNITVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY NORTH BANGKOK KASEMRAT HOSPITAL

RAMA 7 BRIDGE CHAOPHAYA RIVER

PRACHARAT SAI 1 ROAD

KIAKKAI INTERSECTION SOLDER ROAD

DANG BRIDGE INTERSECTION THERD DAMRI ROAD

PRADIPAT ROAD

QUEEN SIRIKIT GARDEN

CHATUCHAK WEEKEND MARKET MRT KAMPHANG PHET

RATCHADAPISEK ROAD

MRT BANGSUE SRIRAT EXPRESSWAY

PRACHACHUEN ROAD

MRT TAOPOON MRT BANG PO

MRT BANGSON

YOTHIN BURANA SCHOOL NEW PARLIA- MENT PRACHARAT SAI 2 ROAD

EGAT

DESCENT

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SLIDE 21

21

Ideo Mobi Wongsawang-Interchange

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SLIDE 22

22

Ideo Mobi Sukhumvit Eastgate

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SLIDE 23

23

Ideo Mobi Sukhumvit Eastgate

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SLIDE 24

332 1,607 2,834 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 As of Sep 14 New launches Existing to transfer next year Necessary revenue (next 3 months)

3,416 4,391 6,544 6,981 3,199 1,409 478 323

  • 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ananda's Backlog - Condo Mitsui's Share Ananda's Backlog - Housing

Backlog

24

26.7 Bn Baht in Backlog

92% of 4Q/2014 Revenue Secured by Backlog 38% of 2015 Revenue Secured by Backlog

Updated: Sep 30, 2014

3,894 4,714 9,743

Unit: M Baht Unit: M Baht

Presales to achieve In 4Q/2014

4,773

8,390

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2014 Business Plan – Quarterly Launches

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2014 Launched 14,950 M Baht

Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Quarter 1

  • Quarter 2
  • Quarter 3

14,950

  • 14,950

Quarter 4

  • Grand Total

14,950

  • 14,950

Note: “Ananda” includes projects owned 100% by Ananda plus percentage share of JV projects

Acquisitions : 19 Sites Launches : 4 Sites (JV 2 Sites)

  • 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Unit:Mil Baht Condo

Note: Increased selling price by 3.5% from initial plan

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SLIDE 26

2015 - Leadership

In 2014 the company extended its leadership in the mass transit condo market despite fewer launches than 2013 In 2015 capital cycle means more launches Aiming for leadership in total condo market In 2015 operational priorities remain the same Retained Priorities

  • Control overall SG&A
  • Prioritise sales and marketing

spending to immediately transferable inventory

  • Presales of new launches

targeted at 40% only

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Retained Priorities (Cont.)

  • Increased ROA
  • Increased ROE
  • Stable Gross Margin
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SLIDE 27

2015 Business Plan – Quarterly Revenues

27

2015 Revenue target between 12,000 and 12,500 M Baht

Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Quarter 1 1,340 717 2,058 Quarter 2 1,245 731 2,008 Quarter 3 1,713 1,008 2,721 Quarter 4 4,482 1,026 5,508 Grand Total 8,780 3,514 12,294

2015 Revenue Growth Rate 23% YoY

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1Q15 (F) 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) Unit : Mil Baht Condo Landed property

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SLIDE 28

Revenue Recognition

28 Source Total Project Value Begins Revenue to achieve in 2014 Revenue to achieve in 2015 Revenue to be transferred after year 2015 Backlog (As of Sep 14) M Baht % M Baht % M Baht % M Baht % M Baht 9,681 4Q2013 38% 3,726 4% 344 0%

  • 3%

280 2,918 3Q2012 5% 156 3% 79 0%

  • 0%
  • 1,488

2Q2014 75% 1,120 25% 368 0%

  • 26%

387 3,257 4Q2014 46% 1,493 54% 1,764 0%

  • 58%

1,870 3,666 4Q2014 38% 1,376 58% 2,135 4% 155 48% 1,779 2,154 3Q2015 0%

  • 70%

1,508 30% 646 45% 978 3,688 4Q2015 0%

  • 70%

2,581 30% 1,106 68% 2,511 8,487 1Q2013 25% 2,160 30% 2,557 38% 3,257 9% 801

New Housing (3)

2,719 2Q2015 0%

  • 35%

957 65% 1,762 0%

  • Total

38,058 10,032 12,294 6,926 8,606

Updated: Sep 30, 2014

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SLIDE 29

2015 Business Plan – Quarterly Launches

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2015 Launches target between 28,500 and 29,500 M Baht

Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Quarter 1

  • Quarter 2

15,605 2,719 18,324 Quarter 3 3,314

  • 3,314

Quarter 4 7,380

  • 7,380

Grand Total 26,299 2,719 29,018

2015 Launches Growth Rate 94% YoY 2015 Acquisitions 5 Sites and Launches 12 Sites (JV 2 Sites)

  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 1Q15 (F) 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) Unit:Mil Baht Condo Landed property

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2015 Business Plan – Quarterly Presales

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2015 Presales target between 22,500 and 23,500 M Baht

Quarter Condo (M Baht) Housing (M Baht) Total (M Baht) Quarter 1 2,164 492 2,655 Quarter 2 5,534 937 6,471 Quarter 3 6,155 977 7,132 Quarter 4 6,354 420 6,774 Grand Total 17,934 2,195 23,032

  • 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1Q15 (F) 2Q15 (F) 3Q15 (F) 4Q15 (F) Unit : Mil Baht Condo Landed property

2015 Presales Growth Rate 14% YoY

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SLIDE 31

2015 Summary

31 Note : (1) Tax Shield from ADO

Item 2013 Actual 2014 Guidance 2015 Guidance

Revenue from Real Estate (M Baht) 8,808 9,500 – 10,500 12,000 – 12,500 Presales (M Baht) 21,083 19,500 – 20,500 22,500 – 23,500 Gross Profit Margin 37% 33% 34% Total Debt / Equity, Year End 1.10 1.56 2.07 Net Interest Bearing D / E, Year End 0.30 0.99 1.27 Effective Tax Rate 21% <20%(1) <20%(1) Launches (M Baht) 34,213 14,950 28,500 – 29,500

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SLIDE 32

10,032 12,294 14,963 16,062 22,270 3,457 10,904 15,150 9,700 4,714 9,743 8,390 10,032 12,294 17,869 13,075 8,325

  • 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ananda's revenue Ananda's 51% share in JVs Ananda's share of backlog and 2014 transferred Land secured

5-Year Business Plan

32 Unit: M Baht

18,420 12,294 10,032 26,966 37,420

Updated: Sep 30, 2014

100% 100% 97% 48% 22%

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SLIDE 33

Bond issue

33

Fact sheet Detail

1. Debentures’ name Debentures of Ananda Development Public Company Limited No. 2/2014 Due 2016

  • 2. Type of Debentures

Unsubordinated and Unsecured Debentures with a Debentures holder ‘Representative in the Name-Registered Debentures

  • 3. Offering Method

Private Placement to 13 types of institutional investors plus high net worth investors

  • 4. Offering Amount

2,395,000 Units

  • 5. Face Value

1,000 Baht/Unit

  • 6. Offering Price

1,000 Baht/Unit

  • 7. Total Amount

2,395,000,000 Baht

  • 8. Issuing Date

9 October 2014

  • 9. Maturity Date

9 October 2016

  • 10. Interest Rate

Fixed Rate at 5.00% per annum

  • 11. Tenor

2 Years

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SLIDE 34

87% 46% 94% 45%

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Company View

 Only 6 months since the coup  Rebound in confidence leading to rebound in demand  Banks remain strongly supportive  Our customer group remains “cashed up” and with good credit  Mass transit ridership still increasing

Source: BTS Holdings

Source : University of Thai Chamber

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SLIDE 35

Planned Government Infrastructure Investment

Previous Thailand Government 10-Year Plan National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO)

The previous Thai government budgeted to spend over US$64.8bn (THB2trn) in infrastructure investments over 2013-2020. The major focus areas included:

  • Expansion of Bangkok mass transit system
  • High-speed train
  • Railways to facilitate freight and logistics
  • New road network linking Thailand to Southern China, Myanmar,

Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam

  • Dawei deep sea port
  • Post-coup, the NCPO has reassured the public of continual

support of infrastructure spending, broadly in line with the previous government

  • It has been reported that NCPO could spend up to THB600bn

in the coming year. Whilst there has been debate as to the actual size of the final approved infrastructure budget, it is likely that the following areas will remain the key focus:

  • Mass transit in greater Bangkok. Green, Pink,

Orange lines (Bt167bn)

  • Airport expansion for Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang

(Bt70bn)

  • A total of 3,183 new (mostly) NGV buses (Bt13bn)
  • Dual-track rail projects on five routes (Bt116bn)
  • Water management (Bt23.8bn)
  • Three motorway routes (Bt120bn)

USDmn

___________________________ Source: Report on Investment Plan for Transport sector (2013-2020), OTP and Phatra.

35

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SLIDE 36

87% 46% 94% 45%

36

Rail transit network development

  • Expand existing SRT double track on 6 lines
  • Electrification of SRT standard double track on 2 lines

Mass Transit Expansion

  • Accelerate construction for purple, blue, green and red lines
  • Accelerate bidding for green, orange, yellow, pink, red line extension, and

APL extension An increase of highways capability linking important manufacturing bases with neighboring countries

  • Expand highways to 4 lanes: highways no. 4 (Krabi-Huayyod district), highways
  • no. 12 (Karasin-Somdet district section 2), highways no. 304 (Kabinburi-

Pakthongchai district), highways on. 314 (Bangpakong district-Chachengsao section 2), highways no. 3138 (Banbeng district-Bankai district section 3)

Water transportation development

  • Develop port to link to freight center by train, port linked road and

airport, deep water port at Pakbara Satun province, Lamchabang phase 3 An increase in air transport capacity

  • Suvanabhumi airport phase 2, regional airport expansion at: Don

Muang, Phuket, Chiang Mai, Betong and Mae Sot

Source : Ministry of Transport

Infrastructure Development for Budget Years 2015-2022

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SLIDE 37

Updated 31-Oct -14 Under Construction

  • Purple Line: Bangsue -

Bangyai (2016)

  • Blue Line: Bangsue –

Bangkae – Hua Lampong (2019)

  • Dark Green Line: Bearing

Samutprakarn (2020)

  • Red Line: Bang Sue –

Talingchan (2017)

  • Red Line: Bangsue - Rangsit

(2019)

Under Bidding

  • Dark Green Line: Mor Chit -

Kukod (2020)

Awarding within 2015

  • Red Line : Rangsit –

Thammasat and Bangsue – Huamak (2018)

  • Orange Line: Thai Cultural

Center - Minburi (2020)

  • Pink Line: Kalai - Minburi

(2020)

  • Yellow Line: Ladprao –

Klong ton (2021)

  • Airport Link: Phayathai -

Donmuang (2019)

37

Current Line Under Construction Awarding in 2015

Mass Transit Network Expansion

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SLIDE 38

Summary of Third Quarter

  • Turnaround to profitable

quarter

  • Revenues up 80% YoY
  • Pre-Sales 1000% above

guidance

  • Increased full year presales

guidance by 73%

  • Cancellation rates remain low
  • Construction of condos on

schedule

  • Acquisitions on plan
  • Housing record quarterly

revenue

  • Bond issue successful

38

Ananda – Achieving Leadership!

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SLIDE 39

Thank you

Ananda Development PLC 2014

39

Contact:

  • Dr. John Millar

Head of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations Ananda Development Public Company Limited john@ananda.co.th +662 697 3300 Mobile: +66 877 99 1946