presentation for six months ended 28 February 2019 Wednesday 10 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Half year results presentation for six months ended 28 February 2019 Wednesday 10 April 2019 Retirement living to the full Agenda Highlights & current trading John Tonkiss, CEO Financial performance & Rowan Baker, CFO outlook
Retirement living to the full
Wednesday 10 April 2019
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Agenda
Highlights & current trading Progress update on the new strategy
Rowan Baker, CFO John Tonkiss, CEO
Financial performance &
John Tonkiss, CEO
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John Tonkiss, CEO
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Key highlights
Significant progress in delivering new strategy with key milestones achieved in accordance with plan
Nigel Turner - Build & Production Mike Lloyd - Sales & Services
staffing of sales substantially complete, delivering annualised cash saving of c.£12m
and choice with incubator hubs now live 845 legal completions (HY18: 760), with revenue at £281m (HY18: £240m) ASP1 £319k (HY18: £298k), a 7% increase, reflecting improvements in quality and locations together with change in geographic and product mix £21.3m underlying operating profit2 (HY18: £14.5m) Increased use of discounts and incentives, particularly part-exchange, to counteract a more challenging secondary market 10 high quality development sites added to land bank (HY18: 22 sites) and 21 planning consents achieved (HY18: 21) 5 Star customer satisfaction awarded for the 14th consecutive year Proposing an interim dividend of 1.9p per share, to be paid on 11 June 2019 (HY18 1.9p)
1. Average selling price is calculated as average list price less cash discounts and part-exchange top-ups and fair value adjustments (2019 only due to IFRS 15 changes) 2. Underlying operating profit (including underlying operating profit margin and underlying basic earnings per share) and underlying profit before tax are calculated by adding amortisation of brand of £1.0m (2018: £1.0m) and exceptional items of £14.3m (2018: £nil) to operating profit and profit before tax respectively.
UK Consumer Confidence index, GfK Index
Strategy announcement
National Average Sales Per Surveyor, RICs Feb19
EXTERNAL MARKET FACTORS
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54 28
10 20 30 40 50 60 FY18 FY19
Sales release sites
5th April
17 4
10 20 30 40 50 60 FY18 FY19
Sales release sites
9th November
Current trading
Completion volumes remain ahead of prior year, despite increasingly challenging market conditions with continued use of part- exchange Sales leads and enquirers in line with prior year despite the planned lower level of sales releases (2019: 28, 2018: 54) reflecting strategic focus on rebalancing workflow Forward order book as at 5 April 2019 (week 31) currently c.17% behind prior year at c. £485m (6 April 2018: £581m) with higher quality reservations now being held due to improved controls Shortfall due to:
completed)
FY19 volume out-turn (14m to 31 October) remains in line with Board’s expectations with increased use of discounts and incentives, particularly part-exchange, now expected to continue into H2 to counteract more challenging secondary market
£485m £267m £174m £581m £277m £141m 5 April 9 November 1 September FY18 FY19
Forward order book (including legal completions) Sales releases
13 26
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Rowan Baker, CFO
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Total legal completions of 845 units (HY18: 760) positive momentum in legal completions driven by higher
Half year revenue of £281m (HY18: £240m) supported by 7% improvement in average selling price to £319k (HY18: £298k) reflecting improvement in quality and location of developments and change in geographic and product mix Underlying operating profit margin of 7.6% (HY18: 6.0%) driven by volume increase, ASP profile, planned margin improvement activity in line with new strategy partially offset by increased usage of part-exchange and incentives to counteract more challenging market conditions Exceptional items of £14m (HY18: £0m) represents restructuring and redundancy costs, realignment
consultancy fees (£5.6m cash impact in H1)
Headline HY19 results
Key financial metrics HY 19 HY 18 Change Legal completions 845 760 11% Average selling price1 £319k £298k 7% Revenue £280.5m £239.6m 17% Gross profit £39.0m £32.0m 22% Gross profit margin 13.9% 13.4% 0.5ppt Underlying operating profit2 £21.3m £14.5m 47% Underlying operating profit margin2 7.6% 6.0% 1.6ppt Underlying profit before tax2 £18.9m £11.5m 64% Statutory profit before tax £3.6m £10.5m (66%) Underlying basic earnings per share2 2.9p 1.7p 1.2p
1. Average selling price is calculated as average list price less cash discounts and part-exchange top-ups and fair value adjustments (2019 only due to IFRS 15 changes) 2. Underlying operating profit (including underlying operating profit margin and underlying basic earnings per share) and underlying profit before tax are calculated by adding amortisation of brand of £1.0m (2018: £1.0m) and exceptional items of £14.3m (2018: £nil) to operating profit and profit before tax respectively.
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ROCE decrease by 2ppt driven by a lower 12 month
Net debt of £57m (HY18: £76m) reflecting ongoing focus
activity TGAV decreased to £738m (HY17: £743m) driven by £12m increase in net stock offset by £19m improvement in net debt position Proposing an interim dividend of 1.9p per share (HY18: 1.9p)
Headline HY19 results
Key financial metrics HY19 HY18 Change Return on capital employed3 (ROCE) 10% 12% (2ppt) Capital turn 1.0x 0.9x (0.1x) Net debt £57.2m £75.9m £18.7m Tangible gross asset value (TGAV) £738m £743m (£5m) Interim dividend per share 1.9p 1.9p
excluding goodwill of £41.7m (2018: £41.7m) and intangible assets of £25.2m (2018: £26.7m), excluding net debt of £57.2m (2018: £75.9m)
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6.0% 7.6% 1.5% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.1% 2.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% H1 FY18 Op. Profit margin Volume List price Land & Build cost increase (location and specification improvement) Build cost inflation at estimate of 3% Total incentive costs Stock holding costs Sales & marketing Operating costs Other FY19 H1 Op. Profit margin
Operating profit margin bridge
Margin improvements driven by Increase in legal completions volumes of 85 units Pricing increase reflecting continued improvements in quality and locations, geographic and product mix This has been offset by: ▪ Land and build cost increases (reflecting location & specification improvements) ▪ Build cost inflation c.3-4% p.a. ▪ Increased usage of discounts and incentives, particularly part-exchange, to counteract a more challenging secondary market Positive impact from planned margin improvement activities in line with new strategy ▪ Rightsizing of the business ▪ Sales and marketing efficiencies
Impact from strategic initiatives
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28 February 2019 28 February 2018
£m £m 66.9 68.4 2.5 2.8 90.2 112.0 (30.1) (50.4) 299.2 451.1 381.4 239.0 740.7 751.7 55.8 32.5 796.5 784.2 (57.2) (75.9) (60.6) (44.1) 748.1 735.4
Balance sheet
£m
31 August 2018
£m Goodwill and intangible assets 67.8 Fixed assets & investments 2.7 Land 99.6 Land creditors (56.9) Sites in the course of construction 290.3 Finished stock 385.9 Total net stock (excl. PX properties) 718.9 PX properties 41.7 Total net stock 760.6 Net cash/debt 4.0 Other net assets / liabilities (71.7) Net assets 763.4
+40% +60%
+2% Total land bank of c.8,372 plots (HY18: c.10,021) Lower land value reflects decreased level of land buying as a result of move away from growth to steady state workflow delivery ▪ 10 land exchanges (HY18: 22) ▪ 13 land completions in HY19 (HY18: 25) Lower level of first occupations expected in H2 resulted in 34% decrease in sites under construction, in line with the new strategy Finished stock levels reduced to 1,579 (31 Aug 18: 1,779). 641 units of opening stock sold in H1 partially offset by 441 units of new stock added during period Increased value of part-exchange properties held on balance sheet in response to more challenging secondary market +72%
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Part-exchange performance
Part-exchange (PX) usage Part-exchange continues to be a valuable tool for the business Increased volume of PX transactions: 46% of legal completions (2018: 40%) reflecting ongoing subdued secondary market Saving of c.£2.7m (HY18 c.£2.6m) through use of on balance sheet PX compared to use of third party PX with average capital employed of £27.2m On balance sheet PX properties resold in line with target at average of c.13.3 weeks (FY18: c.13.1 weeks) post buy-in Board approved increased limit of 10% of net assets (c.75% utilised at 28 Feb), with tight controls in place to ensure regions do not exceed capital allocation Group expects to utilise full part exchange allocation in H2 On balance sheet part-exchange usage 214 properties purchased (HY18: 126) and 196 sold (HY18: 130) Average buy-in price of 96% of market value ▪ Average purchase price £310k ▪ Average loss on sale £2.7k 165 properties on balance sheet at HY19 (31 August 2018: 147)
25% 21% 54%
HY19
17% 23% 60%
HY18
214 126 176 178
HY19 HY18
PX transactions
In-house PX 3rd party PX
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Cashflow – net cash / (net debt)
Enter cashflow bridge
£4.0m £268.4m £57.2m £71.1m £7.7m £18.8m £5.6m £57.9m £168.6m
50 100 150 200 250 300
Opening net cash Net revenue Land spend Build spend Operating costs &
Tax & interest Dividends paid Exceptional items Closing net debt
Total land & build spend £227m (2018:£245m)
*
* Includes incentive costs, build repairs and other variable cost
Continuing to exercise careful cash management and maintain a strong balance sheet Existing revolving credit facility has been extended from May 2021 to March 2023 Positive net cash position expected at year end
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FY19 volume out-turn (14 months to 31 October) remains in line with the Board’s expectations:
with all sites currently under construction
FY21 targeted P&L saving of £40m) at gross profit level Increased use of discounts and incentives, particularly part-exchange, now expected to continue into H2, to counteract more challenging secondary market House price inflation remains subdued and build cost inflation expected to remain at c.3-4% level Roll-out of new strategy underway with key milestones achieved in accordance with plan
FY19 outlook
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John Tonkiss, CEO
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Reminder of strategic timeline – two stages to deliver our business transformation Optimising our operations for strong financial performance…
Cost saving >£40m in FY21 FY21 Operating margin >15% FY21 ROCE >15% Cash saving >£90m FY19 to FY21 FY19-FY21: Focus on ROCE and margins
…leveraging strategic opportunities
ROCE >20% by FY23 Increased market penetration New revenue streams Reduced cyclicality
FY23: Developer, Manager, Owner FY19: Housebuilder
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Summary: optimising our operations for strong financial performance
Rightsizing the business Efficient sales and marketing model Build cost reduction Workflow realignment COMPLETED IN PROGRESS
2 3 4 1
IN PROGRESS IN PROGRESS
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Stable monthly flow of land exchanges, build starts, sales releases and first occupations – fundamental to
Uneven workflow in pursuit of previous growth strategy impacted results – planning mindset focused on first time consents, tendency to accelerate activity to deliver volumes Progress: ✓ Planning actions completed ✓ Incentive scheme launched ✓ Landbank optionality maintained ✓ Inventory levels reducing in line with strategic plan ✓ 10 high quality development sites added to the landbank (HY18: 22) ✓ 21 planning consents achieved (HY18: 21)
Stage 1 - optimising our operations for strong financial performance
1,779 1,579
441 new stock 1,138
FY18 Actual FY21 Target Finished stock, units
Optimise balance sheet and reduce finished stock levels - >£70m reduction in inventory FY18 to FY21 Stable monthly flow of build starts and first occupations
7 23 17 53 23 29 23 25 Average rate of first occupations FY16 – FY18, % Expected profile of first occupations FY21, % 3,000 unit sales target Steady volume at c. 2,100 units Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q1 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q4 FY21
3.9 years’ landbank supply1
1 - calculated based on FY18 legal completions of 2,134 units
HY19 Actual
1,100
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Rightsizing operational cost base to reflect steady state volumes while remaining positioned to scale for growth
areas
working
activities: Build & Production and Sales & Services
Share of expected >£40m savings FY21
Stage 1 - optimising our operations for strong financial performance …Cont
20-30%
FY19 FY20 FY21 Full benefit
Regions across the UK, each targeting 400+ units across their entire footprint
Regions optimised
line with their steady state volume
New regional footprint:
c.£10m of annualised cash saving
Rightsizing
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Reorganisation of sales teams and centralisation of marketing
Optimised sales operating model and centralised marketing function streamlined staffing, standardised sales processes and improved marketing effectiveness Improved website and content management system on track for roll-out summer 2019
Share of expected >£40m savings FY21
Stage 1 - optimising our operations for strong financial performance …Cont
10-20%
2 1 3
Strategic levers
Ongoing phased roll-out of Salesforce CRM system.
2019
regions
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY19 FY20
Salesforce rollout Revised operating model
Full benefit
Streamlined staffing c.£2m of annualised cash saving
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Deliver more standardised and efficient designs, deploy more cost effective building solutions and streamline procurement practices
Share of expected >£40m savings FY21
Stage 1 - optimising our operations for strong financial performance …Cont
50-60%
Completed design efficiency reviews through standard designs and spec guidelines of FY19 and FY20 sites for margin improvement opportunities. New schemes more design compliant Value engineering - prelim standardisation and optimising of technical specs (e.g. foundations, balconies, wall structures) Standard construction programme and preliminary schedule rolled out
Procurement initiatives - a programme for competitive tendering of sub-contract packages commenced
Design compliance Improve design and materials Redesigning and re-engineering the way we build Full benefit
FY21 FY19 FY20
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Build cost reduction – Bingley RL case study 4
Bingley RL development
Design changes
▪
Communal areas rationalised and reduced
▪
Building articulation reduced – less complicated build
▪
Simpler material palette used on rear elevation
▪
Additional 4 two bed apartments to floor plan
▪
One bedroom added to existing 1 bed apartment
▪
Improved internal efficiency
▪
Standard apartment type Estimated impact of Bingley redesign, £000
Design management / Net margin benefit 760 Site margin increase 5% Prelims / Supply chain / Tendering 110 BCR Savings 870 After Before
Simpler material palette to rear
Communal areas rationalised and reduced
Apartment position ‘swapped’ to increase saleability Reduced articulation – less complexity Additional bedroom
+ +
Reduction in floor communal floor area Simplified corner – more efficient construction Additional bedroom
+ + +
First floor Second floor Third floor Ground floor apartment
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Strategic timeline – Two stages to deliver our business transformation Optimising our operations for strong financial performance…
Cost saving >£40m in FY21 FY21 Operating margin >15% FY21 ROCE >15% Cash saving >£90m FY19 to FY21 FY21: Focus on ROCE and margins
…leveraging strategic opportunities
ROCE >20% by FY23 Increased market penetration New revenue streams Reduced cyclicality
FY23: Developer, Manager, Owner FY19: Housebuilder
Flexibility Choice Affordability Incubators launched Design, planning and supplier selection in progress
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Stage 2 - leveraging our strategic opportunities
Flexibility 1
Growth in Management Services revenues (management and care fees) Opportunity = >5% of group revenue
Strategic opportunity:
Variety of payment options Flexible, future proofed and evolving with needs products
Strategic objective:
Launched trials on 21 services across 6 categories in early February Incubator hub live in West Midlands, involving 300 customers Further incubator hub launched in South East Business partners engaged and services provisioned for this stage Review and monitoring underway: level of uptake, commercial viability, scalability
Progress update:
Social / Other Food & Drink Transport Health & Wellbeing Technology Care & support “We should use new technology if it can help us manage our health” “Mum – I think it would be a good idea to give it [remote monitoring] a go, there’s no harm in trying it” “You mean I could talk to a GP the same day? Well that's better than the 3 weeks [for last non-urgent]“ “I have lunch [in the restaurant] every day. I would come for dinner every day if you provided it” “I would attend events there [other developments]… but what are you going to do about transport”
Southsea (at both Tudor Rose Court and Savoy House) – discuss the bistro catering offer and services to RL
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Stage 2 - leveraging our strategic opportunities
Choice 2
On balance sheet trial up to £50m Opportunity = transfer to separate rental fund with potential positive ROCE impact and regular asset management income streams
Strategic opportunity:
Multi–tenure: Build to sell, Part Buy Part Rent and rent only
Strategic objective:
Incubator now launched in 2 regions across 11 developments. 160 apartments on multi-tenure options: outright purchase, Part Buy Part Rent and Rent only First rental reservations have been taken under Assured Tenancy Agreement:
thereafter
ground rent and service charge New website and marketing materials Performance and feedback monitored to refine the proposition.
Progress update:
South East: LIVE 3xRL, 3xRP
North-East: LIVE 3xRL, 2xRP
West Midlands: Early May 2xRL, 1xRP South East: LIVE 3xRL, 3xRP
Upper Norwood RL Crowthorne RP Maidenhead RL & RP Southborough RL c. 50 miles SE of Woking Walton on Thames RP
North-East: LIVE 3xRL, 2xRP
Ilkley RL & RP Scarborough RP Brough RL Darlington RL c. 50 miles N of York
West Midlands: Early May 2xRL, 1xRP
Edgbaston RP Solihull RL Redditch RL
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Stage 2 - leveraging our strategic opportunities
Affordability 3
Opportunity = increased market penetration by introducing lower cost product offering Target = c.15% of land bank
Strategic opportunity:
Streamlined, contemporary and compact designs at mass market average prices
Strategic objective:
Agreed designs for compact, contemporary, affordable (MMC) offering, tested using customer focus groups Scope includes Classic and Bungalow products Working with various MMC suppliers for panelised solutions Volumetric partner assessed and selected to develop the modular designs and design to cost Location for first panelised scheme identified and planning is underway for build start end 2019 Shortlist of volumetric schemes identified to commence in FY20
Progress update:
Compact Two bed 62.7m2 Classic Two bed 72.1m2 to Open Plan Cellular
One bed apartment
Full length windows Brighter, fresher finish
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We continue to make our sector’s case with Government
2. Reform planning
Paper
downsize
additional revenue from new chains created The Spring Statement on 13 March 2019 also included plans for new guidance on diversifying housing types on large sites and an ‘Accelerated Planning Green Paper’
Rt Hon James Brokenshire MP, Secretary of State for MHCLG, meeting our homeowners in 2018
for the retirement community sector to continue to charge economic ground rents after they are capped elsewhere
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Summary
>15% operating margin by FY21 >15% ROCE by FY21 >£90m additional cash generated
Significant progress in delivering new strategy with key milestones achieved in accordance with plan in margin improvement initiatives
Services
hubs now live Encouraging results in spite of continuing economic uncertainty Continue to make our sector’s case with Government FY19 volume out-turn (14 months to 31 October) remains in line with Board’s expectations with increased use of discounts and incentives, particularly part-exchange, now expected to continue into H2 to counteract more challenging secondary market
Next reporting date: 7 November 2019:
Trading update announcement
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Financial statements: Statement of comprehensive income
Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income For the six months ended 28th February 2019 Half year Half year Year end 28 Feb 19 28 Feb 18 31 Aug 18 £m £m £m Revenue 280.5 239.6 671.6 Cost of sales (241.5) (207.6) (567.0) Gross profit 39.0 32.0 104.6 Other operating income 64.5 4.7 11.3 Administrative expenses (34.8) (19.3) (44.0) Other operating expenses (62.7) (3.9) (8.4) Operating profit 6.0 13.5 63.5 Amortisation of brand (1.0) (1.0) (2.0) Exceptional expenses (14.3)
Underlying operating profit 21.3 14.5 67.5 Underlying operating profit margin 7.6% 6.0% 10.1% Finance income 0.3 0.1 0.4 Finance expense (2.7) (3.1) (5.8) Profit before tax 3.6 10.5 58.1 Income tax expense (0.8) (2.4) (11.6) Profit for the year from continuing operations and total comprehensive income 2.8 8.1 46.5 Profit attributable to: Owners of the Company 2.7 7.9 46.2 Non-controlling interest 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.8 8.1 46.5
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Financial statements: Statement of financial position
Consolidated statement of financial position 28th February 2019 Half year Half year Year end 28 Feb 19 28 Feb 18 31 Aug 18 £m £m £m Assets Non-current Assets Goodwill 41.7 41.7 41.7 Intangible assets 25.2 26.7 26.1 Property, plant & equipment 1.9 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 Investment properties 0.2 0.2 0.2 Trade and other receivables 25.3 29.3 27.8 Total non-current assets 94.7 100.5 98.3 Current Assets Inventories 826.6 834.6 817.5 Trade and other receivables 10.2 12.2 22.4 Cash and cash equivalents 31.8 41.1 57.0 Total current assets 868.6 887.9 896.9 Total assets 963.3 988.4 995.2 Equity and liabilities Capital and Reserves Share capital 43.0 43.0 43.0 Share premium 101.6 101.6 101.6 Retained earnings 602.1 589.6 617.5 Equity attributable to owners of the Company 746.7 734.2 762.1 Non controlling interests 1.4 1.2 1.3 Total equity 748.1 735.4 763.4 Current liabilities Trade and other payables 94.1 83.3 114.9 UK corporation tax 0.9 2.2 6.5 Land payables 30.1 50.4 56.9 Short-term borrowings 10.0
135.1 135.9 178.3 Non-current liabilities Long-term borrowings 77.8 115.1 51.4 Deferred tax liability 2.3 2.0 2.1 Total liabilities 215.2 253.0 231.8 Total equity and liabilities 963.3 988.4 995.2 Investments in joint ventures
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Financial statements: Consolidated cash flow statement
Group Cashflow Statement For the six months ended 28th February 2019 Half year Half year Year end
28 Feb 19 28 Feb 18 31 Aug 18
£m £m £m Net cash flow from operating activities (41.7) (86.6) 14.8 Investing activities Purchases of property, plant and equipment (0.3) (0.2) (0.8) Purchases of intangible assets (0.4) (0.5) (1.1) Net cash used in investing activities (0.7) (0.7) (1.9) Financing activities Issue of long-term borrowings 90.0 172.0 250.0 Repayment of long-term borrowings (54.0) (65.0) (217.0) Dividends paid (18.8) (19.3) (29.6) Net cash from / (used in) financing activities 17.2 87.7 3.4 Net increase / (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (25.2) 0.4 16.3 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of perod 57.0 40.7 40.7 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period 31.8 41.1 57.0
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Stock holding analysis
4,846 4,209 832 591 3,223 1,993 1,120 1,579 28 February 2018 28 February 2019
Landbank - plots
Controlled land Owned land Sites under construction Finished stock
Total 10,021 Total 8,372
5,678 4,800 McCarthy & Stone Stock holding Sites Units Sites Units Sites Units Owned sites Land held for development 21 832 18 756 14 591 With detailed planning consent 20 802 17 728 12 498 Awaiting detailed planning consent 1 30 1 28 2 93 Sites in the course of construction1 80 3,223 49 2,042 48 1,993 Pre sales releases 31 1,299 33 1,370 24 1,200 Post sales release 49 1,924 16 672 24 793 Finished stock 93 1,120 119 1,779 112 1,579 Total owned sites 194 5,175 186 4,577 174 4,163 Exchanged sites With detailed planning consent 25 1,067 23 1,040 28 1,326 Awaiting detailed planning consent 89 3,779 97 4,180 67 2,883 Total exchanged sites 114 4,846 120 5,220 95 4,209 Total land bank 308 10,021 306 9,797 269 8,372 Terms agreed, awaiting exchange 43 2,096 47 2,158 31 1,350 Total 351 12,117 353 11,955 300 9,722 Workflow milestones Sites Units Sites Units Sites Units Land exchanges 22 977 54 2,413 10 465 Planning consents 21 938 37 1,636 21 945 Land completions 25 915 43 1,659 13 532 Build starts 32 1,258 53 2,081 14 593 Sales releases 50 1,973 69 2,740 23 994 First occupations 16 746 68 2,766 15 640 Inventory holding (£m) H1 FY18 H2 FY18 H1 FY19 Land held for development 112.0 99.6 90.2 Sites in the course of construction 451.1 290.3 299.2 Finished stock 239.0 385.9 381.4
Part-exchange properties 32.5 41.7 55.8 Total 834.6 817.5 826.6 Legal completions (unit numbers) H1 FY18 H2 FY18 H1 FY19 Current year first occupations 250 1,315 204 Prior year first occupations and earlier 510 819 641 Total 760 2,134 845 * Does not include sites under construction at the pre-foundation stage. 2018 2018 2019 H1 FY18 H2 FY18 H1 FY19 2019 H1 FY18 H2 FY18 H1 FY19
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