PRESENTATION BY THE HON. GABRIEL MARTINEZ MINISTER OF LABOUR at - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PRESENTATION BY THE HON. GABRIEL MARTINEZ MINISTER OF LABOUR at the ILO TRIPARTITE CARIBBEAN CONFERENCE JAMAICA, 1-2 April 2009

“Promoting Human Prosperity beyond the Global Financial Crisis: Seeking Sustainable Solutions through Social Dialogue”

Introduction: • Implications for Belize, a small, developing country. • key sectors impacted and the implications for our people and organisations.

Sectors of the Belizean Economy impacted by the Global Crisis GDP growth projected: • Decelerated from 3.8% in 2008 to 3.0%

Domestic Exports • reduced demand for main agricultural exports. • Forecasted petroleum receipts should fall by $108.3 million or 53.2%.

Domestic Exports cont’d • lobster prices have fallen by an average of 28.0% in 2009. • Farmed shrimp prices are assumed to decline

Domestic Exports cont’d • 24.0% reduction in the average unit export price for citrus juices is predicted • Cross border trade with Mexico weaken by around 5.0%

Domestic Exports cont’d • the fall in commodity prices and weaker cross-border trade will be largely responsible for a 15.9% decline in total exports during 2009

Inflows from Tourism • Inflows from tourism are expected to decline by $51.1 million or 2.7% in 2009. • Stay-over visitors in December 2008, which is the start of the peak season for Belize’s tourism was 4.8% lower than in December 2007.

Inflows from Tourism • A 3.7% decline in stay-over tourists is predicted in 2009 • The US Accounts for about 64% of total stay-over arrivals, while Europe accounts for 14%.

Remittances Family remittances are projected to fall by 10% or $14.9 million in 2009, based on actual information already available from money transfer businesses.

Foreign Direct Investment expected to decline by 48.8% in 2009 as the availability of credit and capital in the international market tightens, and investors become more risk averse.

External Private Sector Loans A slowdown in external private sector borrowing is expected in 2009 due to the international credit crisis.

Impact of the crisis on People and Organisations • Reduced prices for agricultural Products • Contraction in construction

Impact of the crisis on People and Organisations cont’d • Marginal contraction in wholesale/ retail activity: � Fall in tourist expenditures � Winding down of large capital intensive projects

Impact of the crisis on People and Organisations cont’d • Deceleration in real estate activities • Reduction in arrivals of stay-over tourists may lead to some job losses in tourism and related businesses

Impact of the crisis on People and Organisations cont’d • Disposable incomes are likely to fall with decrease in: � tourism activity � remittance inflows and � foreign direct investment

Impact of the crisis on People and Organisations cont’d • Customers are shifting to lower cost, generic brands and business turnover has fallen; and • Demand for lower non-essential expenses such as telephone calls, eating out and so on.

Impact of the crisis on People and Organisations cont’d • No evidence to date of layoffs or shut downs in the sectors

Impact of the crisis on People and Organisations cont’d • The Statistical Institute of Belize reports a contraction in the unemployment rate of 8.1% at April 2008, from 8.5 % in 2007 and projecting GDP growth to be between 2.5% and 3.0% for 2009.

Actions to Address the Challenges Government is taking the following steps: • The launch of $200 million (BZ) stimulus package for:

Actions to Address the Challenges cont’d � The tourism development project; � Sold waste management project; � The Development Finance Corporation to provide student and housing loans and loans to small and medium enterprises;

Actions to Address the Challenges cont’d � Infrastructure rehabilitation; and � Municipal urban renewal • GST has been removed from medication and medical services; basic food items have been zero rated; and the rates of electricity have been lowered.

Actions to Address the Challenges cont’d • A positive effect of the fall in petroleum prices is the dramatic cut in fuel prices at the pump.

Conclusion • Decent Work Country Programme for Belize: � Strengthened tripartite partnership � Training and development and Employment readiness for women and youth

Conclusion cont’d • Strong social partnership an imperative • Government of Belize endorse committee with tripartite and NGO memberships

Conclusion cont’d • We remain optimistic that with a strong social partnership approach and proactive initiative by CDB, CARICOM Secretariat ( COFAP ) and Regional Financial Task Force, the Caribbean Community will weather the storm.

THANK YOU END