Preparing for the Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Joseph Kunches Space Weather Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 1 Westminster, London
Outline The problem – space weather The question – Cycle 24: How strong? The issues Science Users The outlook October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 2 Westminster, London
How Does Space Weather Affect Navigation Systems? Geomagnetic Storms Solar Radiation Storms Radio Blackouts October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 3 Westminster, London
Eruptive Sun to Affected Earth October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 4 Westminster, London
Cycle 24 – Just Beginning, Growing October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 5 Westminster, London
Do No Spots = Weak Cycle 24? October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 6 Westminster, London
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 7 Westminster, London
Cycle 24 Predictions 4th Generation Pesnell Climatology and Recent Climatology Spectral and Neural Network Precursor Physics Based October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 8 Westminster, London
April 2007 Prediction Solar Minimum will be in March, 2008 Cycle 24 will be small R i = 90 August, 2012 or Cycle 24 will be large R i = 140 October, 2011 The panel is split October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 9 Westminster, London
Why is the Panel Split? The Sun recycles its magnetic fields in 1 solar cycle? The Sun recycles its magnetic fields in 2-3 solar cycles? October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 10 Westminster, London
What Would Break the Deadlock? Would small cycle proponents concede? What they said approx. one year ago If the polar field strength increases → increased Cycle 24 If geomagnetic activity increases → increased Cycle 24 October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 11 Westminster, London
And in the other direction…. Would big cycle proponents concede? What they said approx. one year ago A clear demonstration of how polar fields can produce sunspots at latitudes below 30º just a few years later The already historically weak meridional flow may weaken by yet another factor of two and produce a small cycle 24 No evidence of new cycle spots by mid-2008 October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 12 Westminster, London
Space Weather Effects Issues include: High latitude users (aviation, maritime, geophysical) Middle latitude radio impacts Evolving (during solar minimum) technologies GIOVE A & B, GPS L2C FAA ADS-B October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 13 Westminster, London
In 2008, the Department of Homeland Security was named Executive Agent for development of a national backup for critical systems used in position, navigation and timing. Enhanced LORAN (eLORAN) has been identified as the primary candidate for this backup. Solar flares, radiation storms, and geomagnetic storms all impact the performance of LORAN October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 14 Westminster, London
Navigation at High Latitudes Global warming causes polar ice melt Less ice means more sea lanes GPS coverage poor at high latitudes eLoran primary there? (Space weather hot spot!) October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 15 Westminster, London
Off Shore Oil Exploration October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 16 Westminster, London
Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) Earth System Models Predictions/Forecasts Decision Support Value & Benefits Systems, Assessments, to Society Management Actions Radiation Dose Rates: Improvements in the decision- making, decisions, and actions AIR (parametric) Ionizing Radiation First-ever, data-driven, real-time NAIRAS decision support tool HZETRN (physics-based) Nowcast prediction of biologically harmful for NOAA/SEC space weather radiation exposure levels at 3-D Dose Equivalent forecasts, warnings, and commercial airline altitudes advisories Near-Earth Space Environment 3-D Differential Flux Quantitative and qualitative NAIRAS available at NOAA/ • Badhwar/O’Neill GCR Model benefits from the improved ADD experimental aviation- • Empirical Cutoff Rigidity decisions related weather forecasts, observations, and analysis ( IGRF+T05) Comprehensive database of NAIRAS Distributed radiation dose rates to formulate Network System • Physics-based Cutoff Rigidity recommended annual and career High-Performance Specific analyses to support (LFM/CMIT+SEP-trajectory) limits to ionizing radiation Computer Systems the decision making exposure Server Interface Predict real-time radiation Comprehensive database of exposure at commercial airline radiation dose rates for airlines to Operational and Archival altitudes (includes background assess cost/risk of polar routes Earth Observations Databases GCR and SEP events) Real-time prediction of Provide accumulated radiation radiation exposure levels to Near-Earth Space Environment exposures for representative enable optimal balance Differential Particle Flux set of domestic, international, NASA/ACE between airline cost and air and polar routes HZE Particles (Z=5-26) traveler health risk during NASA/HEAO-3 Light-Ions (Z=1-4) solar storm (SEP) events NOAA/GOES Neutrons Specific Decisions / Actions Improve understanding of biological effects of Pions and Muons Limit aircrew flight hours to Assimilated Atmospheric atmospheric ionizing radiation within recommended annual Electromagnetic and career limits on aircrew and passengers Atmospheric Depth (NCAR/NCEP) Cascasde Particles through collaboration of Alter route and/or altitude epidemiological studies by during SEP events NIOSH Ground-Based Observations, Neutron Count Monitors October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 18 Parameters & Products Westminster, London
repeat of previous cycle Owens Valley Radio noise level Solar Array on GPS frequency Photo by Gary Palmer
Solar Radio Burst Of December 6, 2006: Observed by the Global GPS Network Global GPS Network Applications • Ultra-precise positioning (10-20 cm) GUAM • Global coverage: Land, Air, Space GLPS • Used by satellites in orbit Positioning Fails Positioning fails Galapagos: Sunlit during SRB GUAM: Nighttime during SRB 20
Solar Radio Bursts on GPS October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 21 Westminster, London
International Space Environment Service (ISES) Regional Warning Centers October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 22 Westminster, London
WMO Initiative The Potential Role of WMO in Space Weather A REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 23 Westminster, London
Conclusion The problem – space weather looms The question – Cycle 24: How strong? TBD The issues Science -- shaky Users -- needy The outlook Activity picking up; get space weather services from ISES October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, 24 Westminster, London
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