Preparing for the Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Joseph Kunches Space - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Preparing for the Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Joseph Kunches Space Weather Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37,
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 1
Joseph Kunches Space Weather Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 2
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 3
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 4
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 5
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 6
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 7
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 8
Climatology and Recent Climatology Spectral and Neural Network Precursor Physics Based Pesnell
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 9
Ri = 90 August, 2012
Ri = 140 October, 2011
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 10
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 11
What they said approx. one year ago
If the polar field strength increases → increased Cycle 24 If geomagnetic activity increases → increased Cycle 24
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 12
What they said approx. one year ago
A clear demonstration of how polar fields can produce sunspots at latitudes below 30º just a few years later The already historically weak meridional flow may weaken by yet another factor of two and produce a small cycle 24 No evidence of new cycle spots by mid-2008
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 13
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 14
In 2008, the Department of Homeland Security was named Executive Agent for development of a national backup for critical systems used in position, navigation and
been identified as the primary candidate for this backup.
Solar flares, radiation storms, and geomagnetic storms all impact the performance of LORAN
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October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 16
October 28, 2008 NAV 08/ILA 37, Church House, Westminster, London 18
Earth System Models
Radiation Dose Rates: AIR (parametric) HZETRN (physics-based) Near-Earth Space Environment
( IGRF+T05)
(LFM/CMIT+SEP-trajectory)
Value & Benefits to Society
Improvements in the decision- making, decisions, and actions First-ever, data-driven, real-time prediction of biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes Quantitative and qualitative benefits from the improved decisions Comprehensive database of radiation dose rates to formulate recommended annual and career limits to ionizing radiation exposure Comprehensive database of radiation dose rates for airlines to assess cost/risk of polar routes
Real-time prediction of radiation exposure levels to enable optimal balance between airline cost and air traveler health risk during solar storm (SEP) events Improve understanding of biological effects of atmospheric ionizing radiation
through collaboration of epidemiological studies by NIOSH
Predictions/Forecasts Observations, Parameters & Products
Earth Observations
Near-Earth Space Environment NASA/ACE NASA/HEAO-3 NOAA/GOES Assimilated Atmospheric Atmospheric Depth (NCAR/NCEP) Ground-Based Neutron Count Monitors
Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS)
Ionizing Radiation Nowcast 3-D Dose Equivalent 3-D Differential Flux NAIRAS Distributed Network System High-Performance Computer Systems Server Interface Operational and Archival Databases Differential Particle Flux HZE Particles (Z=5-26) Light-Ions (Z=1-4) Neutrons Pions and Muons Electromagnetic Cascasde Particles
Decision Support Systems, Assessments, Management Actions
NAIRAS decision support tool for NOAA/SEC space weather forecasts, warnings, and advisories NAIRAS available at NOAA/ ADD experimental aviation- related weather forecasts,
Specific analyses to support the decision making Predict real-time radiation exposure at commercial airline altitudes (includes background GCR and SEP events) Provide accumulated radiation exposures for representative set of domestic, international, and polar routes Specific Decisions / Actions Limit aircrew flight hours to within recommended annual and career limits Alter route and/or altitude during SEP events
repeat of previous cycle
Photo by Gary Palmer
Radio noise level
Owens Valley Solar Array
Solar Radio Burst Of December 6, 2006: Observed by the Global GPS Network
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Galapagos: Sunlit during SRB GUAM: Nighttime during SRB
GUAM GLPS
Global GPS Network Applications
Positioning Fails Positioning fails
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A REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
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