Predictive modeling of biological soil crusts as a tool for better - - PDF document

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Predictive modeling of biological soil crusts as a tool for better - - PDF document

Predictive modeling of biological soil crusts as a tool for better range management Matthew A. Bowker, Dept. of Biological Sciences. NAU Jayne Belnap & Mark Miller USGS Geological Survey The charismatic microflora Mosses, lichens and


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Predictive modeling of biological soil crusts as a tool for better range management

Matthew A. Bowker, Dept. of Biological

  • Sciences. NAU

Jayne Belnap & Mark Miller USGS Geological Survey

Mosses, lichens and cyanobacteria…

microfungi, liverworts, archaea, bacteria, chlorophytes, flagellates, diatoms, and a dependent food web of soil invertebrates

The charismatic microflora

Hundreds of species, spanning all three domains

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BSCs harbor ecosystem engineers

Organisms that control the availability of resources and living space for other organisms by causing physical state changes in biotic or abiotic materials

(Jones et al. 1994, 1998) Microcoleus

Image: J. Johansen

1) Surface stabilization (increased living space) 2) Hydrology effects (increased water availability) 3) Dust trapping (increased nutrient availability)

Ecosystem engineering: soil stabilization

Chemically Physically

EROSION

Sand grains cyanobacteria cyanobacteria sheath w/clay

Hu et. al 2002 Mazor et. al 1996 Belnap & Gardner 1993

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0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.016 0.018 0.020 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Rsqr = 0.90

Cyanobacterial biomass (chl a mg gsoil-1) Soil stability (slake test2)

Ecosystem engineering: soil stabilization

Bowker, Miller & Belnap unpublished

R2

Ecosystem engineering: hydrology effects

smooth crusts (hot) bumpy crusts (cold)

both types retain water longer- surface sealing

(e.g. Alexander & Calvo 1992, George et al. 2003)

Runoff Infiltration Infiltration Runoff

Issa et al. 1999

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Microcoleus

Image: J. Johansen, JCU

Syntrichia

Image: B. Mishler, Jepson Herbarium

Ecosystem engineering: dust trapping

Reynolds et al. 2001 Surfaces with BSCs enriched in eolian dust compared to bedrock P: 2 X K: 1.2 X Mg: 4.4 X Fe: 1.6 X Cu: 1.4 X Mn: 2.1 X Mo: 5 X

Collema spp. Nostoc & Scytonema spp.

N

C

Photosynthesizers: mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria

BSC contributions to ecosystem function

~ equal to a continuous leaf covering the ground surface- Otto Lange

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BSC contributions to ecosystem function: N- fixation

0.4 1.5 5.2 2.1 2.8 3.5 Kg ha-1 yr-1 130 km

Sonoran desert: 7 - 18 kg ha-1 y-1 Great Basin: 10 – 100 kg ha-1 y-1 Colorado Plateau: 1 – 4 kg ha-1 y-1 Australia: 1 kg ha-1 y-1 Nigeria: 3 – 9 kg ha-1 y-1 High Arctic: up to 10 kg ha-1 PER DAY!

How much N?

(reviewed in Evans & Lange 2001)

Bowker, Miller & Belnap unpublished

Because…

+ +

Ecosystem engineering Ecosystem functioning & services

And…management seeks to maintain, preserve and restore ecosystem processes Management must incorporate BSCs in decision making

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Desertification is widespread in the US Symptoms: erosion, decreased productivity, soil fertility loss, decreased ecosystem services

= desertification

  • f rangelands

$23 billion y-1

(Dregne & Chou 1992)

Worldwide crusts are in decline due to…

Livestock Agriculture Urbanization Climate change

Rangeland health (Pellant et al. 2000)

Site/soil stability Hydrologic Function Biotic integrity

Degree of departure from reference

17 indicators CRUSTS

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~2 million acres of complexity!

130 km

Statistical model: potential soil crust

Crust data

  • Env. data

Potential crust condition (base)

Inputs Map outputs

The Mission: establish reference conditions

cover, biomass, diversity elevation, precipitation, soils

Crust function & properties (interpretive)

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Statistical model: potential soil crust

Crust data

  • Env. data

Potential crust condition (base) Crust function & properties (interpretive)

Input data

200+ map units 9 map units

(including rock-dominated)

Stratified field sampling: soil X precipitation

NRCS soil map 111 sites Field surveys

sampled relatively undisturbed sites

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clay silty to sandy silty sandy +CaCO3

  • CaCO3

bentonitic gypsiferous limestone silty shale siliceous non-calc. calcareous kaiparowits Precipitation gradient

Soil types: eight types + rock dominated

non-bent.

Publicly available climate data

Digital elevation models Average annual precipitation USGS PRISM

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Statistical model: potential soil crust

Crust data

  • Env. data

Potential crust condition (base) Crust function & properties (interpretive)

Modeling CART (tree) model

soil soil soil elevation precip.

limestone calcareous non-bentonitic gypsiferous non-calcareous bentonitic siliceous kaiparowits limestone non-bent non-calc siliceous low calc, gyps, bent or kaip high bent or kaip high & dry calc or gyps high & wet calc or gyps 15.0 ± 9.2 25.4 ± 11.1 1.8 ± 2.4 3.5 ± 2.4 12.2 ± 2.7 7.1 ± 4.2

in

Response: moss cover Predictors: soil precipitation elevation

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Determining how good the models are:

1) Randomly withheld 12%

  • f data

2) Generate model 3) Test model against withheld data using linear regression 4) Repeat 5 times (bootstrapping)

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

Predicted Observed

Total Lichen Cover

R2 = 0.69

model performance 0.60

  • spp. richness

0.09

  • chl. a

0.22 light cyano 0.49 dark cyano 0.55 moss 0.69 lichen R2 Model

Statistical model: potential soil crust

Crust data

  • Env. data

Potential crust condition (base) Crust function & properties (interpretive)

Outputs: “base” maps

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Total moss cover

An example base map for total moss cover Two more base models

Dark cyanobacterial crust Total lichen

very different!

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Different cover types can be summed

Moss + lichen + dark cyano cover

R2 = 0.64

Using the models

1) Collect crust cover and ground cover data for sites to be evaluated e.g. point intercept transect crust functional groups or total crust cover 2) Compute cover data as percent of available habitat 3) Determine potential by locating your site on my maps

Pics here 80% cover 40% cover 95% available habitat 50% available habitat 80/95 = 84% cover of avail. habitat 40/50 = 80% cover of avail. habitat

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Site ID litter rock plant bare crust all crust % avail. habitat E0002 12 38 36 14 20 21 E0091 4 33 63 E0134 26 4 28 36 2 2 3 E1502 14 24 50 10 2 5 8

An example using the rangeland health dataset

We selected 4 sites because they had varying potential crust cover formatting data for comparison with mine:

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4% 58% 21% 0%

Assessing departure from potential

Percent cover

E0134 E0091 E0002 E1502

100 100

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Limitations and caveats: assumes crusts are static

Crust cover changes, even in the absence of disturbance My maps are a conservative estimate of potential crust cover because they are based on drought years

Limitations and caveats: based upon minimal slope-aspect effect

I primarily sampled flat sites

N less cover more cover model OK model OK

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Limitations and caveats: assumes soil map units are homogenous

NRCS maps “map unit complexes”

5001- Mido fine sand 2-15% slopes Mido fine sand 85% Dune land 5% Mido family & similar 5% Earlweed & similar 5% = Calcareous sand

Limitations and caveats: assumes soil map units are homogenous

If you think your site deviates from my maps, you can classify it yourself* and use the trees

soil soil elevation elevation elevation ppt.

L,G,NC,S,B C,NB,K # 1668 # 1505 >1668 >1505 # 1632 >1632 L,G,NC S,B # 20 >20 36.1% 35.9% 68.1% 48.2% 11.6% 44.6% 51.2%

d) Total light cyanobacterial crust R2 = 0.80 * I owe you decision rules to classify soils

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Statistical model: potential soil crust

Crust data

  • Env. data

Potential crust condition (base) Crust function & properties (interpretive)

Outputs: interpretive maps Base model of species richness

Gypsiferous takes the prize

R2 = 0.60

0.3 5.6 20.3 9.2 15.1 18.4

# species

12.3

130 km

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An interpretive model: N fixation

base models + published rates (Belnap 2001)

0.4 1.5 5.2 2.1 2.8 3.5 Kg ha-1 yr-1 130 km

Identification of conservation priorities

  • Spp. richness + N-fix (equal weight)

Other input options: C-fixation Eolian dust retention Surface roughness Endemic/rare species Surface stabilization Weighting is user-defined

= highest priorities

130 km

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ID of conservation priorities Setting appropriate restoration goals Rangeland health assessment

+

Conclusions

Estimating ecosystem services

GSENM crust models

+ + +

Better informed land management

Expanded crust models for Colorado Plateau Thanks!

  • Planning/Insight/Critique: Kent Sutcliffe and NRCS

staff, Roger Rosentreter, Thom O’Dell, Nancy Johnson, Johnson & Sisk labs (NAU)

  • Logistics, site suggestions: John Spence, Tim

Graham, Harry Barber, Sean Stewart, Joel Tuhey, Angie Evenden, Paul Evangelista, Paul Chapman, and the GSENM staff

  • Field/Lab Assistance: Kate Kurtz, Chris Nelms,

Sasha Reed, Bernadette Graham, Moab lab folks, Jenn Brundage, Laura Pfenninger, Sara Bartlett, Laura & Walt Fertig, Elaine Kneller Kneller

  • Modeling advice: John Prather, Walt Fertig
  • Funding: BLM, Merriam-Powell Center for

Environmental Research And soil crusts everywhere!!!!

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Assessing departure from potential

Percent cover

E0134 E0091 E0002 E1502

100 100

B=3 S=3 B=4 S=5 B=3 S=3 B=5 S=4 active passive

removal of stressor inoculation fertilization & microsite engineering artificial soil stabilization Dry crumbled crust (Belnap 1993) Wet slurry (St. Clair et al.1986) Ex situ mass culturing (Buttars et al. 1998)

potential actions difficulty +

  • SUCCESSFUL RESTORATION
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Mean = 0.0042 mg g-1 Mean = 0.0013 mg g-1 Spring 2001 Summer 2001, Summer 2002

3.2 X

Chlorophyll a tree R2= 0.64

Days since start of sampling

< 36 36 +

Bowker et. al 2002