Predicting and Preventing February 2019 Brand & Category - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Predicting and Preventing February 2019 Brand & Category Desertion Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Agenda 1. The Purpose 2. Identify 3. Predict & Profile 4. Activate 5. Learn 2 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Starting the Conversation The situation: The client was looking for help connecting consumer behavior and trends to action in the marketplace to drive both trust and sales of products in their category. Client formed a partnership with Inmar due to our ability to track actual shopper behavior, understand why it was happening, and then target these shoppers to change behavior, with results that could be measured. 3 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Identify

This new process is a virtuous cycle, can be replicated with almost any consumer segment, feeding learning and optimization Clients can use Inmar data to validate hypotheses, target consumers, and quantifiably demonstrate they can change behavior. Build a Identify predictive model 1 Identify hypotheses for why to identify the key a key consumer group of group behaves the shoppers who way it does. are most likely to behave a certain Activate against Predict 4 way in the future. proven hypotheses Activate 2 & Learn to validate findings and hone Profile or messaging. Use disprove Inmar media and hypotheses using other methods. 3 Profile basket and social Results feed listening data. continual learning . Running multiple models, testing and learning throughout the year translates into the need for a DPN data subscription. 5 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Predict

1 4 2 Attrition Modeling 3 Profil e Attrition Modeling Predictive Modeling: Category 1) Identifies in Category Shoppers Attritor who are likely to attrite 2) Longitudinal basket analysis allows Category us to measure shifts purchase Predictive Buyers behavior Model 3) Observing lifestyle changes to ML-Boosted Classifier identify drivers, marketing, and messaging strategies Category Non Attritor Benefits over Lapsed Buyers methods: 1) Attritors are found early before they exit the category or brand 2) Earlier opportunities for targeted intervention 7 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2018 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Predicting the Future Inmar built a predictive model that identified future behavior of shoppers with 80% accuracy . 273k Inmar used a 273k HH sample from DPN data, spanning 2.5 HH years and looking at total baskets. 36 key behavioral variables were 80% fed into a model powered by Machine Learning to predict 80% Accuracy accuracy which shoppers were most likely to leave the category. 8 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Profile

1 Discovering Trends in Attritor’s Consumption Behavior 4 2 3 Dollar Trend Flows Show Two Types of Behavior: Inflows - Start Positive Behaviors vs. Outflows - Ending Negative Behaviors Category attritors mostly exemplify positive behavioral shifts that focus on living a fitness and healthier/heart-healthy lifestyle as achieved by: Inflows: Starting Positive Behaviors Outflows: Ending Negative Behaviors Attritors are Purchasing More of: Attritors are Purchasing Less of: vs. The size of the words represents the magnitude of the index compared to the average 10 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Heart-Healthy Trends • Attritors are reducing consumption of sweets, breads, and some canned goods in an apparent heart-healthy move away from added sugars, gluten, and sodium. • They are also increasing consumption of lower-fat offerings such as turkey snacks and dry beans as well as imported bottled water. • Notably, fruit juices and carbonated beverages are down over 20% each, confirming attritors are not using these as replacements. 11 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Recapturing the Healthy Lifestyle Market with Smoothies and Shakes • Fresh and DIY offerings are on the rise and many of these items are common smoothie ingredients (blueberries, raspberries, sports nutrition powders etc.). • The convenience of pre-packaged bottled smoothies/juices are on the decline and sports drinks have only a modest increase, suggesting attritors want to mix their own shakes/smoothies for freshness. • These trends provide opportunity to market in category products as fresh and flavorful bases high in protein for fruit smoothies/sports shakes. 12 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Activate

1 Recommended Pred ict 4 2 Activation 3 Profil e • Inmar will use data driven insights and consumer modeling completed to create optimal content and consumer targets . • Healthy lifestyle loving influencers will create authentic & engaging story driven content to change future behavior of consumers most likely to leave the category in the next four months. • Influencers will create recipes within their blog posts to engage audiences, educate consumers, and encourage sharing. Recipe content will be better for you, containing healthy ingredients, and healthy lifestyle options. • Inmar will pair content with an effective distribution strategy that maximizes the engagement of the campaign via Social Content Ads designed to find the largest number of future category attritors using specific targets of interests and affinities • Inmar will then conduct a Sales Lift Study to understand and measure effectiveness and levels of consumer engagement. 14 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

Learn

1 Pred ict 4 2 Unmatched Organic and Paid Content Distribution 3 Profil e 3 Inmar selects top-performing 2 Content reaches primary Curated & specialized 1 content to promote across social 4 Content originates on audiences (friends and channels to targeted audiences. followers), and influencer sites and All paid distribution We can target groups based on social channels. secondary audiences drives back to buying habits, Interests (or the after initial viewers share Influencer audiences influencer content lack thereof) as well as affinities and engage. (Influencers qualified during and/or branded toward your products influencer selection share) experience pages. and drive them to process. your content Targeting Capabilities Start your new year off on the right foot! Interests & Affinities Geographic Demographic Behavior Instant Hot Pot: Chicken Purchase Tortilla Soup Click the link to see how this Retargeting delicious recipe comes to life! Lookalikes Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

In addition to the RSLA, Inmar will provide a sophisticated suite of measurement, analysis and reporting tools to custom PrescriptiveIQ™ and RSLA for measuring From the day-to-day campaign reports providing valuable return on investment monitoring dashboard… insights about your brand All metrics are measured via first-party tracking pixels and platform API access, and verified by third-party partners for accuracy and legitimacy 17 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

What Happens When We Apply Predictive Analytics to Data? Difficult decisions suddenly seem simpler. Customer engagement is amplified. Transactions get faster. Costs go down. Sales go up. The possibilities are endless. IT’S COMMERCE ACCELERATED. What can we solve for you today? 18 Inmar confidential – do not copy, distribute or use without Inmar written permission, 2019

THANK YOU www.inmar.com • www.linkedin.com/company/inmar • @InmarInc Brent Snyder Paul Weitzel Brent.Snyder@inmar.com Paul.Weitzel@inmar.com 479.644.1913 847.756.3717