Second Quarter 2019 | 0
POWERING GROWTH DELIVERING VALUE
Second Quarter 2019 Results August 8, 2019
POWERING GROWTH DELIVERING VALUE Second Quarter 2019 Results - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
POWERING GROWTH DELIVERING VALUE Second Quarter 2019 Results August 8, 2019 Second Quarter 2019 | 0 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS AND NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on current
Second Quarter 2019 | 0
Second Quarter 2019 Results August 8, 2019
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This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations, including statements regarding our earnings guidance and financial outlook and goals. These forward-looking statements are often identified by words such as “estimate,” “predict,” “may,” “believe,” “plan,” “expect,” “require,” “intend,” “assume,” “project” and similar words. Because actual results may differ materially from expectations, we caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements. A number of factors could cause future results to differ materially from historical results, or from outcomes currently expected or sought by Pinnacle West or APS. These factors include, but are not limited to:
electricity, including those due to weather seasonality, the general economy, customer and sales growth (or decline), and the effects of energy conservation measures and distributed generation; power plant and transmission system performance and outages; competition in retail and wholesale power markets; regulatory and judicial decisions, developments and proceedings; new legislation, ballot initiatives and regulation, including those relating to environmental requirements, regulatory policy, nuclear plant
returns on and of debt and equity capital investments; our ability to meet renewable energy and energy efficiency mandates and recover related costs; risks inherent in the
effect on our facilities or business from cybersecurity threats or intrusions, data security breaches, terrorist attack, physical attack, severe storms, droughts, or other catastrophic events, such as fires, explosions, pandemic health events or similar occurrences; the development of new technologies which may affect electric sales or delivery; the cost of debt and equity capital and the ability to access capital markets when required; environmental, economic and other concerns surrounding coal-fired generation, including regulation of greenhouse gas emissions; volatile fuel and purchased power costs; the investment performance of the assets of our nuclear decommissioning trust, pension, and
business; potential shortfalls in insurance coverage; new accounting requirements or new interpretations of existing requirements; generation, transmission and distribution facility and system conditions and operating costs; the ability to meet the anticipated future need for additional generation and associated transmission facilities in our region; the willingness or ability of our counterparties, power plant participants and power plant land owners to meet contractual or other obligations or extend the rights for continued power plant operations; and restrictions on dividends or other provisions in our credit agreements and ACC orders. These and other factors are discussed in Risk Factors described in Part I, Item 1A of the Pinnacle West/APS Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018, which you should review carefully before placing any reliance on our financial statements, disclosures or earnings outlook. Neither Pinnacle West nor APS assumes any obligation to update these statements, even if our internal estimates change, except as required by law. In this presentation, references to net income and earnings per share (EPS) refer to amounts attributable to common shareholders. We present “gross margin” per diluted share of common stock. Gross margin refers to operating revenues less fuel and purchased power expenses. Gross margin is a “non-GAAP financial measure,” as defined in accordance with SEC rules. The appendix contains a reconciliation of this non-GAAP financial measure to the referenced revenue and expense line items on our Consolidated Statements of Income, which are the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States of America (GAAP). We view gross margin as an important performance measure of the core profitability of our operations, and is used by our management in analyzing the operations of our business. We believe that investors benefit from having access to the same financial measures that management uses. We present “adjusted gross margin” and “adjusted operations and maintenance” that have been adjusted to exclude costs and offsetting operating revenues associated with renewable energy and demand side management programs. We also present “adjusted other, net” that has been adjusted for the deferral impacts of the Four Corner’s Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) equipment and the Ocotillo Modernization Project. We also present “adjusted income taxes" that shows the impact of tax reform. Adjusted gross margin, adjusted operations and maintenance, adjusted other, net, and adjusted income taxes are “non-GAAP financial measures,” as defined in accordance with SEC rules. The appendix contains a reconciliation to show the exclusion of costs and offsetting operating revenues associated with renewable energy and demand side management programs, the deferral impacts of the Four Corners SCR equipment and the Ocotillo Modernization Project, and the impact of tax reform. We believe the information provided in the reconciliation provides investors with useful indicators of our results that are comparable among periods because they exclude the effects of unusual items that may occur on an irregular basis, such as the installation of the SCR equipment, the Ocotillo Modernization Project and tax reform impacts, and exclude the effects of programs that overstate our gross margin.
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1 Excludes costs and offsetting operating revenues associated with renewable energy and demand side management programs. 2 Driver adjusted for the deferral impacts of the Four Corners Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) equipment and Ocotillo Modernization Project. 3 Other gross margin impacts are partially offset by other expenses.
See non-GAAP reconciliation in Appendix.
Adjusted O&M1 $0.20
Adjusted Gross Margin1 $(0.53) Pension & OPEB Non-service Credits, net $(0.04) Adjusted Income Taxes $0.13 Adjusted Other, net2 $0.04 Gross Margin Transmission $ 0.03 Sales / Usage $ 0.02 LFCR $ 0.01 Weather $ (0.31) Federal Tax Reform $ (0.19) Other3 $ (0.09)
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1 U.S. Census Bureau April 2019 2 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment 3 CBRE’s U.S. Data Center Trends Report 4U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Release date December 2018
Maricopa County
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Single Family Multifamily Projected 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
U.S. Phoenix
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1Represents the APS $500 million 8.75% senior notes which
matured on March 1, 2019
1
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Adjusted gross margin1 (operating revenues, net of fuel and purchased power expenses) $2.50 – $2.56 billion
$35 – $45 million Interest expense, net of allowance for borrowed and equity funds used during construction (Total AFUDC $40 million) $195 – $205 million Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests $20 million Effective tax rate 10% Average diluted common shares outstanding 113.1 million EPS Guidance $4.75 - $4.95
1 Excludes O&M of $80 million, and offsetting revenues, associated with renewable energy and demand side management programs.
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Outlook Through 2021: Goal of earning more than 9.5% Return on Equity (earned Return on Equity based on average Total Shareholder’s Equity for PNW consolidated, weather-normalized)
Gross Margin – Customer and Sales Growth (2019-2021) Assumption Impact
Retail customer growth
Weather-normalized retail electricity sales volume growth
Assumption Impact
Lost Fixed Cost Recovery (LFCR)
mandated environmental capital expenditures (cumulative per kWh cap rate of $0.00050) Power Supply Adjustor (PSA)
Transmission Cost Adjustor (TCA)
APS Solar Communities
Property Tax Rate Deferral: APS is allowed to defer for future recovery (or credit to customers) the Arizona property tax expense above (or below) the 2015 test year caused by changes to the applicable composite property tax rate. Gross Margin – Related to 2017 Rate Review Order
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$7.1 $9.6 $1.5 $2.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year-End
ACC FERC
1 Adjusted to include post test-year plant in service through 12/31/2016
83% 17% Generation & Distribution Transmission Long-term Rate Base Guidance: 6-7% Average Annual Growth Projected Rate base $ in billions, rounded
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776 795 859 815 - 825 72 63 74 50 - 60 $848 $858 $933 $865 - $885 2016 2017 2018 2019E PNW Consolidated ex RES/DSM Planned Fleet Outages
1 Excludes RES/DSM of $83 million in 2016, $91 million in 2017, $104 million in 2018, and $80 million in 2019E
$ in millions
1
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*Outage duration spans Q1-Q2. Number of days noted per quarter.
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1 Ocotillo Modernization Project: Units in service second quarter 2019.
1
$ in millions
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automation
communications backhaul Overhead Lines & Wood Pole Replacements Average annual spend ~ $8M
to damage, degradation or failure
enhance system reliability Line Extensions for new residential and commercial customers Average annual spend ~ $68M
facilities in response to customer request
New Distribution Substations & Upgrades Average annual spend ~ $38M Construction over the next 3 years:
Underground Cable Replacements Average annual spend ~ $22.5M
primary distribution cable
cause of power outages Cap Bank Controllers, Substation Regulators, Voltage Management Algorithms Average annual spend ~ $11M ~ $11M
to manage power quality such as power factor and voltage
Approximately 50% of distribution capex Approximately 9% of distribution capex Approximately 41% of distribution capex Reclosers – Supervisory Controlled Switches, Trip Savers Average annual spend ~ $14M
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* Impacts represent the change to the average residential bill after the rate case ($149.75/1,064 kWh).
$154.02 2/1/18 –PSA Recovers fuel costs $144.42 4/1/19 - TEAMI Creditfrom federal tax reform $141.33 4/1/19 -EIS Recovers environmental improvements $148.77 3/1/18 - TEAMI Creditfrom federal tax reform $148.15 6/1/18 - TCA Access to more renewable energy and improves reliability $146.88 7/1/18 – REAC Provides renewable energy incentivesand power costs $143.80 2/1/19 –PSA Recovers fuel costs $143.66 3/1/19 –LFCR Supports grid reliability $141.18 4/1/19 - TEAMII Creditfrom federal tax reform $148.89 4/1/18 -EIS Recovers environmental improvements $140.04 7/11/19 – LFCR Supports grid reliability $141.27 6/1/19 – TCA Access to more renewable energy and improves reliability
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not yet approved this request.
utilizes its remaining tax credit carryforwards
the year the assets are placed in service
2020 ETR
a 28.5 year period Net Regulatory Liability for Excess Deferred Taxes ($ in millions) At June 30, 2019 Total Net Regulatory Liability for Regulated Excess Deferred Taxes $1,495 Net Regulatory Liability for Depreciation Related Excess Deferred Taxes (to be returned over the life of property) $1,398 Net Regulatory Liability for Non- Depreciation Related Excess Deferred Taxes $97
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2 APS will calculate the capital carrying charge using the 5.13% embedded cost of debt established in the 2017 Rate Review Order 1 The ACC’s decision is subject to appeals
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1 Arizona Corporation Commission Staff recommended a $58.5 million revenue increase and the Administrative Law Judge
issued a Recommended Opinion and Order consistent with Commission Staff’s recommendation
2 Based on 2017 Rate Review Order
$ in millions
3 Assumes no step increase in 2019 4 Amortization of deferral 5 Calculated using 21% marginal tax rate
and 113.1 million shares
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1 Monthly data equals applications received minus cancelled applications. As of June 30, 2019, approximately 97,000 residential grid-tied
solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have been installed in APS’s service territory, totaling approximately 767 MWdc of installed capacity. Excludes APS Solar Partner Program residential PV systems. Note: www.arizonagoessolar.org logs total residential application volume, including cancellations. Solar water heaters can also be found on the site, but are not included in the chart above.
57 74 133 151 133 57 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD
Residential DG (MWdc) Annual Additions
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(12) 14 8 (23) 9 (33) $(35) $(30) $(25) $(20) $(15) $(10) $(5) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
$ in millions pretax 2018 $(13) Million 2019 $(24) Million All periods recalculated to current 10-year rolling average (2007 – 2016)
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$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
1 Renewable energy and demand side management expenses are offset by adjustment mechanisms
$ in millions pretax 2019 $42 Million 2018 $104 Million
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ACC Key Dates / Docket # Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Power Supply Adjustor (PSA): E-01345A-16-0036 Implemented: Feb 1 Lost Fixed Cost Recovery: E-01345A-16-0036 2018 LFCR approved 2019 LFCR Filed: Feb 15 2019 LFCR approved Transmission Cost Adjustor: E-01345A-16-0036 Filed: May 15 Implementation: Jun 1 2020 DSM/EE Implementation Plan: E-01345A-19-0148 To be filed by: Dec 31 2020 RES Implementation Plan: E-01345A-19-0088 Filed: Jul 1 Four Corners SCR Step Increase: E-01345A-16-0036 No scheduled events Resource Planning and Procurement: E-00000V-19-0034 Filed preliminary IRP: Aug 1 Tax Expense Adjustor (TEAM): E-01345A-18-0003 TEAM II approved: Mar 13 TEAM III filed: Apr 10 Resource Comparison Proxy (RCP): E-01345A-19-0081 Year 3 Filed: May 1 Year 3 Implementation Expected: Sept 1 QF/PURPA Contracts (EPR-2): E-01345A-16-0272 Workshop Mar 29 Hearing begins Aug 27 Possible Modification to Commission’s Energy Rules: RU-00000A-18-0284 Workshops Feb 25, Mar 14, Mar 26 Workshops Apr 17, 29, 30 Workshops Jul 31, Aug 7 Modification to Retail Competition Rules: RE-00000A-18-0405 Workshop Jul 30, 31 Customer Complaint: E-01345A-18-0002 Commission vote not to dismiss: May 22 Complaint resolved: Jul 10 APS Rate Review: E-01345A-19-0003 Rate Review Began Commission vote for new rate case: June 11
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Numbers may not foot due to rounding.
$ in millions pretax, except per share amounts
20191 RES/ DSM Four Corners and Ocotillo Deferrals2 Income tax expense at statutory rate 2019 Adjusted 20181 RES/ DSM Four Corners Deferral2 Income tax expense at statutory rate 2018 Adjusted Operating revenues 870 $ (32) $
$ 838 974 $ (42) $
$ 932 Fuel and purchased power expenses (242) 13
(257) 13
Gross margin 628 (19)
717 (29)
$(0.53) Operations and maintenance 228 (19)
268 (29)
0.20 $ Depreciation and amortization 147
145
Other taxes 55
54
0.01 $ Allowance for equity funds used during construction (8)
(13)
Interest charges 57
61
Allowance for borrowed funds used during construction (4)
(6)
Interest expense, net of AFUDC 45
42
0.02 $ Other expenses (operating) 1
7
Other income (13)
(7)
Other expense 4
4
Other (8)
4
0.04 $ Income taxes 17
(24) 44
(9) 0.13 $
1 Line items from Consolidated Statements of Income. 2 See Note 4, Regulatory Matters, in Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2019, for total Four Corners and Ocotillo deferral impacts.
EPS Impact Three Months Ended June 30,
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$ in millions pretax
Operating revenues1 3,625 $
$ Fuel and purchased power expenses1 (1,045)
Gross margin 2,580
Adjustments: Renewable energy and demand side management programs (80)
Adjusted gross margin 2,500 $
$ Operations and maintenance1 945 $
$ Adjustments: Renewable energy and demand side management programs (80)
Adjusted operations and maintenance 865 $
$
1 Line items from Consolidated Statements of Income.
2019 Guidance
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Numbers may not foot due to rounding.
2019 2018 Incr (Decr) 2019 2018 Incr (Decr) ELECTRIC OPERATING REVENUES (Dollars in Millions) Retail Residential 433 $ 500 $ (68) 784 $ 817 $ (33) $ Business 396 436 (40) 729 779 (50) Total Retail 828 936 (107) 1,513 1,596 (83) Sales for Resale (Wholesale) 22 15 6 58 28 31 Transmission for Others 15 15 (0) 30 30 Other Miscellaneous Services 3 5 (2) 7 9 (2) Total Electric Operating Revenues 868 $ 971 $ (103) 1,608 $ 1,662 $ (54) $ ELECTRIC SALES (GWH) Retail Residential 2,994 3,337 (344) 5,571 5,685 (113) Business 3,593 3,771 (179) 6,790 6,920 (130) Total Retail 6,587 7,109 (522) 12,362 12,604 (243) Sales for Resale (Wholesale) 1,015 448 567 1,861 739 1,122 Total Electric Sales 7,602 7,557 45 14,223 13,343 880 RETAIL SALES (GWH) - WEATHER NORMALIZED Residential 3,243 3,245 (2) 5,737 5,698 39 Business 3,704 3,728 (24) 6,899 6,913 (14) Total Retail Sales 6,947 6,973 (26) 12,637 12,611 26 Retail sales (GWH) (% over prior year) (0.4)% (1.4)% 0.2% (1.2)% AVERAGE ELECTRIC CUSTOMERS Retail Customers Residential 1,117,422 1,095,913 21,509 1,118,865 1,096,953 21,912 Business 135,318 134,317 1,001 135,131 134,282 848 Total Retail 1,252,740 1,230,230 22,509 1,253,995 1,231,235 22,760 Wholesale Customers 46 37 9 50 33 16 Total Customers 1,252,786 1,230,267 22,519 1,254,045 1,231,268 22,776 Total Customer Growth (% over prior year) 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% RETAIL USAGE - WEATHER NORMALIZED (KWh/Average Customer) Residential 2,902 2,961 (58) 5,128 5,194 (67) Business 27,375 27,757 (382) 51,056 51,479 (423) 3 Months Ended June 30, 6 Months Ended June 30,
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2019 2018 Incr (Decr) 2019 2018 Incr (Decr) WEATHER INDICATORS - RESIDENTIAL Actual Cooling Degree-Days 357 513 (156) 357 513 (156) Heating Degree-Days
323 282 Average Humidity 21% 16% 5% 21% 16% 5% 10-Year Averages (2007 - 2016) Cooling Degree-Days 489 489
489
9 9
450
17% 17%
17%
6 Months Ended June 30,
Numbers may not foot due to rounding.
2019 2018 Incr (Decr) 2019 2018 Incr (Decr) ENERGY SOURCES (GWH) Generation Production Nuclear 2,200 2,137 63 4,712 4,615 96 Coal 1,965 1,733 232 3,738 2,831 907 Gas, Oil and Other 1,626 1,564 61 3,474 3,210 264 Renewables 185 180 6 304 311 (7) Total Generation Production 5,976 5,613 362 12,228 10,968 1,260 Purchased Power
1,267 1,861 (594) 1,491 2,111 (620) Resales 98 298 (200) 122 320 (198) Renewables 620 599 21 1,080 1,037 43 Total Purchased Power 1,985 2,758 (773) 2,692 3,468 (776) Total Energy Sources 7,960 8,371 (411) 14,920 14,435 485 POWER PLANT PERFORMANCE Capacity Factors - Owned Nuclear 88% 85% 3% 95% 93% 2% Coal 54% 47% 6% 51% 39% 12% Gas, Oil and Other 25% 22% 3% 26% 23% 3% Renewable 37% 37% 0% 31% 32% (1)% System Average 45% 41% 4% 46% 41% 5% 3 Months Ended June 30, 6 Months Ended June 30,