POWER, PARALLEL AUTONOMY, AND PEOPLE Gill Pratt | CEO at Toyota - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

POWER, PARALLEL AUTONOMY, AND PEOPLE

Gill Pratt | CEO at Toyota Research Institute | GTC 2016

1.2 Million People

Part 1: Power

How much power should it take to drive an autonomous car?

CURRENTLY: THOUSANDS OF WATTS

Another Solution

30 W Works even while daydreaming

How Does It Do That ?

DARPA M3-Actuation

Energy efficiency is improved by sparse utilization of complexity

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DARPA Neovision2: Sparse utilization of computing complexity can improve energy efficiency as well

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DARPA SYNAPSE: BRAINS VS. VON NEUMANN COMPUTERS

Brains

• Complexity Less Constrained

› Human Brain: 1014 synapses

• SWaP Highly Constrained

› Human Brain › 30 W › 3 pounds

• Sparse, Distributed Computation

› Dedicated Functionality › Unary (Spike) Coding

Computers

• Complexity Highly Constrained

› Xbox One 28 nm SoC: 5 x 109 Transistors

• SWaP Less Constrained

› IBM Sequoia Blue Gene/Q (98,304 16-core Power-PC chips) simulating 5 x 1013 synapses › 8 Million Watts @ 1/1000 real time › 500,000 pounds @ 1/1000 real time

• Von Neumann Architecture

› Multiplexed Functionality › Binary Coding 20,000 : 1 1 : 500,000,000 1 : 300,000,000

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DARPA SyNAPSE: IBM True North

SyNAPSE Chip: 5 Billion Transistors 256 Million Synapses (1 Human Brain / 400,000) 50 mW @ real time 3 x 10-13 W/synapse (Brain) : 2 x 10-10 W/synapse (SyNAPSE) 1 : 1000

CONCLUSION: POWER

• Buy More Hardware
• Unroll Computations
• Avoid Multiplexers
• Turn Most Hardware Off Most of the Time

Part 2: Parallel Autonomy

Must we achieve Level 4 to deal with the handoff problem?

DARPA Robotics Challenge (Finals - June, 2015)

24 Teams Came From Around the World

DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited

Program Structure

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SOME FELL OVER

SOME DID GREAT (KAIST)

MODEL BASED SERIES AUTONOMY

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Operator DRC Robot Degraded Network Emulator

𝐵𝑣𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑛𝑧 ∝ 1 𝐷𝑝𝑛𝑛𝑣𝑜𝑗𝑑𝑏𝑢𝑗𝑝𝑜

DARPA ARM-S – LIMITING CASE OF 0 POST-COMMAND COMMUNICATIONS (JPL)

DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited

Is This the Only Model of Autonomy ?

Three modes of shared control

PARALLEL AUTONOMY: BRAIN COMPUTER INTERFACE ON QUADRIPLEGIC BOX AND BLOCKS 2-MINUTE TIMED TEST

DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited

ARM + RP Collaboration PM : Gill Pratt (DSO) in collaboration with Justin Sanchez (BTO) Performers: CMU/NREC (Bagnell et. al.) +

• U. Pittsburgh (Schwartz et. al.)

How Does this Apply to Autonomous Driving ?

AKIO TOYODA’S PRIORITIES

• Safety
• Environment
• Mobility for All
• Fun to Drive

NEEDED RELIABILITY NUMBERS

• About 10 Million Toyota cars are produced / yr.
• Each car lasts about 10 years

› About 100 Million Toyota cars are in service

• Each car is driven about 10 thousand miles / yr.

› Toyota cars are driven about 1 Trillion miles / yr.

• It takes only a few defect-caused accidents / yr. to cause an existential crisis

SERIES (CHAUFFER) VS. PARALLEL (GUARDIAN ANGEL)

Note: Technology Supporting Guardian Angel + Chauffer are similar Aspect Chauffer (Series Autonomy) Guardian Angel (Parallel Autonomy) Duty Cycle 100% < 1% : only if accident imminent Liability Manufacturer Mostly Driver Required Competence All of Driving Do No Harm Development All or Nothing lives lost until done Incremental lives saved sooner Driver’s Skills Ignored Utilized as much as possible Fun + Love of Car Decreased car becomes train Increased allows high performance experience by novice drivers Handoff Problem ? Yes No

SERIES (CHAUFFER) VS. PARALLEL (GUARDIAN ANGEL)

Parallel

(Safety) Time, Complexity ABS Collision Avoidance Steering Front Collision Warn ASC Collision Avoidance Braking Side Collision Warn Lane Departure Warn Collision Avoidance Acceleration Lane Departure Prevention

Series

(Convenience) Time, Complexity Cruise

Hybrid Autonomy

Adaptive Cruise Lane Keeping No Hands Automatic Highway Passing NAV Speed Warn Speeding Prevention Automatic Parking Slow Speed Auto Driving Medium Speed Auto Driving

Chauffer Guardian Angel

TRI’S AUTONOMY RELATED GOALS

• Improve Safety
• Improve Access
• Diversify Toyota from

Mobility Outdoors to Mobility Indoors

But What About the Trillion Miles ?

SIMULATION

• Repeatable Studies of Human – Machine Interface
• Regression Testing for Software Development
• Amplification of Physical Testing

Part 3: People

TRI ANN ARBOR (TRI-ANN)

Cambridge

~50 People Simulation

Ann Arbor

~50 People Chauffer

Palo Alto

~150 People Guardian Angel

WHY ANN ARBOR ?

American Center for Mobility (Planned) M-City, Mobility Transformation Center University of Michigan Toyota Technical Centers

TRI-ANN ARBOR AREA LEADS

• Prof. Ed Olson

Area Lead, Perception

• Prof. Ryan Eustice

Area Lead, Mapping / Localization

DIDN’T THEY USED TO WORK FOR FORD ?

Ford Edison Assembly Plant, Metuchen, NJ, March 1961

“CO-OPETITION” ACCELERATES PROGRESS

Eiji Toyoda visiting Ford River Rouge Plant, ca. 1950

Our Hope: Constructive Competition and Collaboration

Car Manufacturers IT Companies Governments Hardware Manufacturers

Why Co-operate?

1.2 Million People Per Year Demand Nothing Less

CONCLUSION : FIRST EVER BCI DOOR OPENING

DARPA Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited

ARM + RP Collaboration PM : Gill Pratt (DSO) in collaboration with Justin Sanchez (BTO) Performers: CMU/NREC (Bagnell et. al.) +

• U. Pittsburgh (Schwartz et. al.)

Thank You NVIDIA !