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Pow ering a new grow th cycle
Santander 1 5 th Annual Latam Conference January, 2 0 1 1
Pow ering a new grow th cycle Disclaim er This presentation may - - PDF document
1 Santander 1 5 th Annual Latam Conference January, 2 0 1 1 Pow ering a new grow th cycle Disclaim er This presentation may include declarations about Vale's expectations regarding future events or results. All declarations based upon
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Santander 1 5 th Annual Latam Conference January, 2 0 1 1
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“This presentation may include declarations about Vale's expectations regarding future events or results. All declarations based upon future expectations, rather than historical facts, are subject to various risks and
(a) the countries where Vale operates, mainly Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) capital markets; (d) the mining and metals businesses and their dependence upon global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) the high degree of global competition in the markets in which Vale
different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including Vale’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20F and its reports on Form 6K.”
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
November 30, 2010
Vale position in the FT 500 ranking¹
¹ Ranking of the 500 largest companies in the world by market cap – Financial Times, position on 31 March of each year
500 400 300 200 100 1
1 1 7
1 5 3
2 7 5
3 3 4 4 4 6
2008 2009
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Vale in 2010
7 Coal I ron ore & pellets Nickel, cobalt & PGMs Bauxite, alum ina & alum inum Copper Potash & phosphates Manganese & ferroalloys Logistics
Brazil 54% Nort h America 25% Asia 10% Aust ralasia 10% Ot her 1%
Asset base by geography Asset portfolio
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BHPB RIO TINTO ANGLO AMERICAN BARRICK GOLD NORILSK NICKEL SOUTHERN COPPER TECK RESOURCES XSTRATA FREEPORT VALE
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260
Market capitalization as of December 23, 2010 in US$ billion
US$ 1 7 5 .8 billion
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Vale 39.0% 27.7% BHP Billiton 27.2% 23.5% Rio Tinto 20.5% 15.9% Anglo American 15.7% 7.9% Xstrata² n.a. 12.6% TSR
last 10 years¹ last 5 years¹
Nov/2000-Nov/2010 Nov/2005-Nov/2010
¹ In US$ ² Incorporated in March/2002 Source: Bloomberg
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São Paulo New York Paris Hong Kong
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439 2,720 3,525 16,018 Anglo American Rio Tinto BHPB Vale 94.4 134.6 227.5 BHPB Rio Tinto Vale
I ron ore production¹
million metric tons
1 Production in the first nine months of 2010.
² Proven and probable reserves in 2009 Source: Vale and Companies
I ron ore reserves²
million metric tons
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2.6 2.8 2.9 4.6 6.4 7.9 Eramet BHP Billiton Xstrata Jinchuan Norilsk Nickel Vale
Nickel reserves¹
million metric tons of contained nickel
¹ Proven and probable reserves in 2009, except Norilsk Nickel (2007) Source: Vale and companies
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Norilsk 20.6% BHP 8.7% Xstrata 7.8% Jinchuan 7.6% Other 37.9% Vale 17.4%
Share of world finished nickel production - 2008
Source: CRU Quarterly Q2 2009
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EBI TDA
in US$ billion
Net earnings
7.260 11.825 5.349 13.218 12.866 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM¹ 11.451 15.774 19.018 9.165 19.392 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM¹
¹ Last twelve-month period ended in September 30, 2010.
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Revenues 14.5 46.0% 110.3% Operational income 7.8 69.2% 241.7% Operational margin 55.6% +770 bps +2,140 bps Net earnings 6.0 63.0% 260.0% Adjusted EBITDA 8.8 58.1% 192.5%
US$ billion
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5 10 15 20 Jun- 08 Oct- 08 Feb- 09 Jun- 09 Oct- 09 Feb- 10 Jun- 10 Oct- 10
Global industrial production % 3mma, saar¹
¹ Seasonally adjusted annualized rate Source: Vale and J.P. Morgan
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1 Recovery from Mar/2010 to Oct/2010, annualized rate.
Sources: Vale, BEA and NBER
I P: global recessions and recoveries 3.0% 6.7%
Average: 3.8%1 11.0%
Mar/2009 2.6% 3.7%
Nov/2001 5.8% 2.0%
Mar/1998 4.6% 9.7%
Dec/1982
3.3%
Jul/1980 5.8% 11.0%
May/1975 Δ 2nd year Δ 1st year Δ peak to trough
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Global PMI , sa¹ New orders/ I nventories ratio, sa¹
56,1 55,4 56,8 57,8 57,0 55,0 54,3 53,7 52,5 53,7 53,9
52 53 54 55 56 57 58 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov /10 Index, sa
¹ Seasonally adjusted Sources: Vale and JP Morgan
1 ,24 1 ,1 7 1 ,1 5 1 ,23 1 ,20 1 ,1 5 1 ,1 1 ,05 1 ,01 1 ,04 1 ,06
1,00 1,05 1,10 1,15 1,20 1,25 1,30 jan/10 mar/10 mai/10 jul/10 set/10 nov /10 Ratio, sa
20 ¹ Saar
Chinese GDP grow th¹ %
6.0 1.0 7.8 14.7 11.6 11.8 10.0 8.0 8.5
3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Source: CEIC and Vale estimates
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40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10
¹ Platts Iron Ore Index, 62% Fe content Fonte: Platts
172.0
Platts I ODEX¹ US$/ metric ton
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Source: Bloomberg
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 000' m etric tons 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 US$ / m etric tons
Inventories Nickel prices
August 27, 2010
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200 400 600 800 1,000 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 100 200 300 400 500 600
Monthly average prices US$/ metric ton
¹ Fob Vancouver ² Fob Tampa Source: Vale and Fertilizer Week
Potash¹ DAP²
26 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Apr- 09 Jun- 09 Aug- 09 Oct- 09 Dec- 09 Feb- 10 Apr- 10 Jun- 10 Aug- 10 Oct- 10 Dec- 10
3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Apr- 09 Jun- 09 Aug- 09 Oct- 09 Dec- 09 Feb- 10 Apr- 10 Jun- 10 Aug- 10 Oct- 10 Dec- 10
Source: Bloomberg
Corn US$/ bushel Soybeans US$/ bushel
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010E 2015E
Developed Econom ies Em erging Econom ies
Sources: Vale and IMF
Real GDP grow th % annual Convergence
Convergence
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Emerging Economies Developed Economies
Steel consumption intensity
kilos / US$ 1,000 of real GDP
Source: World Steel Association, WBMS, IMF and Vale
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Iron Ore Fertilizers Nickel Copper
Share of emerging economies in global consumption of metals and fertilizers
29 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Brazil Korea China I ndia
Urbanization rate
%
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “World Urbanization Prospects: the 2009 revision”.
10 20 30 40 50 60 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
China W orld
Urbanization rate
%
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F = Target Sources: NBS, NDRC, CAAC and Ministry of Transport of China
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Passenger cars per 1,000 people 2007
Sources: World Bank and CEIC
3 6 1 3 2 1 5 8 1 6 7 2 0 5 2 4 8 3 2 5 4 5 1 4 8 7 World Brazil Mexico Russia Korea Japan United States European Union
China 2008
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33 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Developed economies Emerging economies
Nickel consumption intensity
kilos / US$ million of real GDP
Source: WBMS, IMF and Vale
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¹ Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019.
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 US$ billion 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
1 ROIC LTM = return on capital invested for the last twelve-month period.
ROI C LTM 1 I nvested capital US$ billion
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Alunorte 3 Carajás 70 Mtpy Sossego Candonga Aimorés Alunorte 4&5 Trombetas Capão Xavier Pier III PDM Mo I Rana Fábrica Nova Taquari- Vassouras Brucutu Carajás 85 Mtpy Capim Branco II Paragominas I Carajás 100 Mtpy Dalian Samarco III Fazendão Paragominas II Alunorte 6&7 Capim Branco I Zhuhai
UHC Vargem Grande Northern Corridor Southeastern Corridor Carborough Downs Additional 20 Mtpy CSA Bayóvar Oman Onça Puma Tres Valles VNC
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Project s 73.0% Support of exist ing
18.7% R&D 8.3%
2 0 1 1 By category
Fert ilizers 10.4% Power generat ion 3.3% Ot hers 5.3% Base met als 18.0% Ferrous minerals 35.5% Logist ics 20.9% Coal 6.6%
2 0 1 1 By business area
Organic growth 81.3% Bulk materials 42.1%
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Brow nfield Greenfield
2012
2011 2013 2015
Conceição Itabiritos Carajás 30 Mtpy Teluk Rubiah Salobo Tubarão VIII Estreito Karebbe Long-Harbour Serra Sul (S11D) Rio Colorado Moatize Totten Simandou Biofuels Konkola North Vargem Grande Itabiritos Salobo II ALPA CSP CSU
Iron ore & pellets Nickel Coal Copper Fertilizers Logistics Energy Steel
2014
Serra Leste Bayovar II CLN 150 Mtpy Cauê Itabiritos Moatize II Conceição Itabiritos II CLN S11D Ellensfield Apolo Nacala Cristalino Salitre Simandou II
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Aggregate production growth¹
¹ Index encompassing the production of all Vale's product, base 2003=100
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
Equivalent iron ore production unit basis
CAGR 2011E-2015E: 16.3%
Brownfield projects Greenfield projects
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Iron ore million metric tons
293 31 1 522 2008 201 1 E 201 5E 34 49 73 2008 201 1 E 201 5E 283 295 381 2008 201 1 E 201 5E 31 3 332 691 2008 201 1 E 201 5E 607 760 3,400 2008 201 1 E 201 5E 7,600 1 2,700 2008 201 1 E 201 5E 4,094 1 1 ,600 42,000 2008 201 1 E 201 5E
Pellets million metric tons
¹ Not including production from
production is dedicated to produce pellet. ² Not including production from Samarco, Hspanobras and from Zhuhai.
Nickel 000’ metric tons Coal million metric tons Copper 000’ metric tons Potash 000’ metric tons Phosphate rock 000’ metric tons
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rio@vale.com