Population and Dynamic Model : PHM Population and Dynamic Model : - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Population and Dynamic Model : PHM Population and Dynamic Model : - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 01, 2023 536 likes •651 views

Population and Dynamic Model : PHM Population and Dynamic Model : PHM Go Hibino of MHIR Go Hibino of MHIR 2006.10.19 2006.10.19 AIM Training Workshop 2006 AIM Training Workshop 2006 1 1. Background Population is the most important

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Population and Dynamic Model : PHM Population and Dynamic Model : PHM

Go Hibino of MHIR Go Hibino of MHIR 2006.10.19 2006.10.19 AIM Training Workshop 2006 AIM Training Workshop 2006

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  • 1. Background
  • Population is the most important factor for future

GHG emissions.

  • Japan’s population decreases from 2006.
  • Distribution of population has much effect on

structure of energy system in transportation and residential sectors.

  • National Institute estimate future national

population by 2100, but future number of national household and province-wise population by 2025/2030.

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  • 2. Input/Output of PHM

1) Population in base year [Sex, Age] 2) Birth rate [Sex, Age, Year] 3) Int. migration [Sex, Age, Year]

  • 4) Headship rate [Sex, Age, Family, Year]

1) Population in base year [Sex, Age] 2) Birth rate [Sex, Age, Year] 3) Net migration [Sex, Age, Year]

  • 4) Headship rate [Sex, Age, Family, Year]
  • 5) Climate Div. share [Climate, Year]

6) Landuse Cls. share [Landuse, Year]

Input Population and Households Model

  • Population [Sex, Age, Year]
  • Household [Family, Year]

National Province-wise Landuse Cls.-wise National Province-wise Climate Div.-wise Passenger

  • Trn. Model

Buildings

  • Dyn. Model

<National> <Province-wise> Output

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  • 2. Input/Output of PHM

Input of PHM Source (Japan) 1) Population in 2000 (National, Province-wise) Statistics by Ministry of Internal Affairs 2) Birth rate 3) Migration 4) Headship rate (National, Province-wise) 5) Climate Div. Share 6) Landuse Cls. Share National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

<Source of Input>

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  • 3. Logic of PHM

T+1 T

20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80

Migration Survivorship Birth rate Sex rate

< Cohort Component Method >

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Populatin(Age, Sex, Year) = Population(Age, Sex, Year-1) × Survivor rate(Age~Age+1, Sex, Year) × 1+Net Migration rate(Age~Age+1, Sex, Year) Population(“1”, Sex, Year-1) = Σ{Population(Age, “Female”, Year-1) × Birth rate(Age, Sex, Year)} × Survivor rate(“Birth~1”, Sex, Year) × 1+Net Migration rate(“Birth~1”, Sex, Year) Number of Households (Family, Year) = Σ {Population(Age, Sex, Year) × Headship rate(Family, Age, Sex, Year)}

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< Flow of PHM >

  • 3. Logic of PHM

Total population (Period T-1) [Sex, Age] Total population (Period T) [Sex, Age] Province-wise Population (Period T) [Sex, Age] Province-wise Population (Period T-1) [Sex, Age] Survival rate [Sex, Age] International Net-migration (Domestic Prs.) International net-migration (Outsider Prs.) Fertility rate [Age] Province-wise fertility rate [Age] Total number of Household (Period T) [Family-wise] Headship rate [Sex, Age, Family] Province-wise headship rate [Sex, Age, Family] Landuse Cls.-wise population and households (Period T) [Sex, Age, Family] Province-wise landuse Cls. share Province-wise climatic division share Province-wise household (Period T) [Age, Family] Consistency Consistency Consistency Adjustment Adjustment Adjustment : Data flow : Exogenous variable : Endogenous variable Province-wise survival rate [Sex, Age] Province-wise net-migration [Sex, Age] Climate zone.-wise population and households (Period T) [Sex, Age, Family]

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  • 4. Output of PHM

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population (Thousand) 80- 60-79 40-59 20-39 0-19 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population 80- 60-79 40-59 20-39 0-19

Japan’s future population

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1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 その他中部・四国・九州 その他近畿 その他中部 その他関東 北海道・東北（除く宮城） 宮城・広島・福岡 大阪・京都・兵庫 愛知県 東京 千葉・埼玉・神奈川

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

A scenario B scenario

Chubu, Shikoku, Kyushu Kinki Chubu Kanto Hokkaido, Tohoku Miyagi, Hiroshima, Fukuoka Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo Aichi Tokyo Chiba, Saitama, Kanagawa

  • 4. Output of PHM
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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Others Parent- Children One-Person Couple-Only Couple- Children

Japan’s future number of household

  • 4. Output of PHM