PLANNING FOR AGILITY A PARADOX? Ren Rohrbeck, Professor of Strategy - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PLANNING FOR AGILITY – A PARADOX? René Rohrbeck, Professor of Strategy DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY JUNE 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

Prof. Dr. Rene Rohrbeck Professor of Strategy Aarhus BSS, Aarhus University Founding Partner Rohrbeck Heger GmbH PROJECTS AND EMPLOYMENT (selection) STRATEGIC FORESIGHT RESEARCH NETWORK mgmt.au.dk/strategicforesight rohrbeckheger.com DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

OUR MATURITY MODEL CORPORATE FORESIGHT MATURITY BENCHMARKING MODEL Since 2006 50+ top management 450+ workshops benchmarked companies 30+ implementation projects DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

FUTURE PREPAREDNESS PAYS... * Data: Future preparedness data from 2008 Profitability and Market Capitalization data from 2015 +33% -37% -37% -44% 16% PROFITABILITY* 12% 10% 10% 9% ALL FIRMS VIGILANT NEUROTIC VULNERABLE IN DANGER +200% -49% -101% -108% MARKET 75% CAPITALIZATION* 38% 10% 9% 25% -1% -6% ALL FIRMS VIGILANT VULNERABLE IN DANGER NEUROTIC Source : Rohrbeck, R. and Kum, M. E. (2018) ‘Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis’, Technol ogical Forecasting and Social Change, 129(4), pp. 105 – 116. https://doi.org10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013 DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

Scenarios create powerful mental images that an organization can follow (or avoid). Classical mobility today Transition Future Digital assistants for manual driving Greener and more Individual and shared autonomous cars mobility DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

YOUR FUTURE PREPAREDNESS? YOU YOUR PLANNING… personally organization starts with multiple clear pictures 5 + years into the future join at slido.com #BtB18 – choose room M3 - oplæg 1 René Rohrbeck DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

How do we deliver in cities that ban diesel vehicles? DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

YOUR FUTURE PREPAREDNESS? YOU YOUR PLANNING… personally organization starts with multiple clear pictures 5 + years into the future Involves working with partners and probing into new futures join at slido.com #BtB18 – choose room M3 - oplæg 1 René Rohrbeck DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

WE ARE MUCH BETTER AT LOOKING AFTER OURSELVES THAN OUR ORGANIZATIONS. Average LIFE EXPECTANCY 80 Humans 60 40 Projections S&P 500 companies based on current data 20 2020 2030 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Sources : Foster, R. N. and S. Kaplan (2001). "Creative destruction." The McKinsey Quarterly(3): 40. (Life-expectancy of S&P 500 companies) UN (2015) World Population Prospects, 2015 revision (Human Life-Expectancy from the age of 1, world) DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

KEY TAKEAWAYS 1 Analyze deeper than your competitor 2 Build shared future outlooks (scenarios, radars) 3 Train key people on systems thinking and trend audits 4 Create budgets for probing into new markets DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY

WONDERING HOW TO MAKE YOUR ORGANIZATION FUTURE READY! Rene Rohrbeck Adam Gordon Professor Associate Professor Aarhus BSS Aarhus BSS Assoc. Dean for Executive Education Corporate Relations https://futureorientation.net/ https://bss.au.dk/samarbejde/kurser-og-netvaerk/ DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT RENÉ ROHRBECK AARHUS UNIVERSITY OCTOBER 2018 PROFESSOR OF STRATEGY