Physical Complexity Part A: Emergent behaviour in physical - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Physical Complexity Part A: Emergent behaviour in physical - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Physical Complexity Part A: Emergent behaviour in physical infrastructures Prof.dr.ir. M.P.C. Weijnen Professor, Faculty of TPM, TU Delft Emergent behaviour Behaviour at the macro- level emerges from the behaviour of system elements at


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Prof.dr.ir. M.P.C. Weijnen

Professor, Faculty of TPM, TU Delft

Physical Complexity

Part A: Emergent behaviour in physical infrastructures

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  • Behaviour at the macro-

level emerges from the behaviour of system elements at the micro- level.

  • Often unpredictable

Emergent behaviour

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Behaviour = predictable Part A Part C Part D Part B Part E Behaviour = predictable Behaviour = predictable Behaviour = predictable Behaviour = predictable

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Part A Part C Part D Part B Part E Behaviour can be unpredictable! Overall system

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Part A Part C Part D Part B Part E Overall system Complexity is in the interactions

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Emergence is everywhere

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Emergence is everywhere

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Emergence is everywhere

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Emergence is everywhere

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Emergence is everywhere

Economy Psychology Biology

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Emergence is everywhere

Chemistry Particle physics Biology

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Emergence is everywhere

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  • Are a patchwork of local,

regional and national networks

  • Were subject to national

standards

Legacy Infrastructures

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  • Are a patchwork of old

and new technologies

Legacy infrastructures

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  • Yorkshire water: 40 % loss due

to leaking pipelines, 1990’s

  • Asset life cycle management

standards

Ageing infrastructures

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  • Cross-border

interconnectors

  • From back-up facility to

accommodating international electricity trading

Changing functionality

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  • The nature of electric

power generation is changing

  • More and more

electricity generated from renewable sources

Changing functionality

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  • Wind parks in the northern

part

  • Load centers in the southern

part

  • A lack of interconnection

capacity between the northern and the southern part

  • Electricity flows via

neighbouring countries

Germany

Load centers

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  • More wind power
  • More solar power
  • Higher risk of instability

Flow pattern is changing

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  • Little storage capacity
  • Hydropower reservoirs

Electricity infrastructures

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  • Little storage capacity
  • Hydropower reservoirs

Electricity infrastructures

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  • High velocity of

electricity flows

  • Balancing of supply and

demand in real time

Electricity infrastructures

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Balancing supply and demand

Supply Demand

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Balancing supply and demand

More challenging!

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Thank you for your attention!

Please post any questions you may have on

  • ur discussion forum.
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Prof.dr.ir. M.P.C. Weijnen

Professor, Faculty of TPM, TU Delft

Physical Complexity

Part B: Drivers of infrastructure development

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  • Small system: possible to

predict

  • Tendency to grow

because of:

  • Economies of scale
  • Network externalities
  • Large system: almost

impossible to predict behaviour

Predictability

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  • Decreasing cost per unit
  • f output with

increasing scale

Economies of scale

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  • The more users, the

more value for each user

Network externalities

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  • Infrastructures have a

tendency to grow into huge systems

  • Subsystem failure may cause
  • verall system failure
  • Interdependencies can have

various forms, e.g.:

  • Linear
  • Non-synchronous

Interdependencies

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  • More subsystems
  • More (diverse)

interrelationships

  • More feedback loops
  • Difficult to recognize

and model

Interdependencies

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  • Patterns in aggregated

behaviour of infra- systems

  • Recognizing patterns is

crucial for operators

  • Operators use models to

predict the implications

  • f their actions

Patterns of emergent behaviour

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  • Infrastructures: capital

intensive Huge sunk costs (costs that cannot be recovered)

Path dependency

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  • Netherlands: 37,350 km2
  • Hundreds of thousands km
  • f cables and pipelines
  • Almost 10,000 km of
  • verhead lines
  • High sunk costs  path

dependency

Sunk costs in networks

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  • Can be adopted if

competitive

  • For example: Mobile

telephony:

  • Relatively small network

investments

  • Flexibility
  • New services

New technologies

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Mobile telephony in emerging countries

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  • Interacting elements
  • Agent = decision making

entity

Concept of agents

Rules … … …

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  • Not only physical network
  • An infrastructure includes:
  • Transport and distribution

network

  • Carriers
  • Conversion and storage

facilities

  • Governance, management and

control systems

  • Actors are part of system 

Social complexity

Definition of infrastructure

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Thank you for your attention!

Please post any questions you may have on

  • ur discussion forum.
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References