PHASTAR The Future for the Western Statistics and Programming - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Kevin Kane

PHASTAR

The Future for the Western Statistics and Programming Communities in the Face of Globalisation

Overview

– The Global Economy – Pharmaceutical Companies – East vs West – Stats & Programming – The Future

Global Economy

• The events of 2007

– “Great Repression”

• Economic historian Niall Ferguson

– “Great Contraction”

• Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff

– “Great Crash”

• University of Berkeley’s Robert Reich

Capitalism

The whole intellectual edifice of financial economics collapsed Alan Greenspan Large swaths of economics are going to have to be rethought Larry Summers The notion that unfettered markets, all by themselves, can ensure economic prosperity are growth… is over Joseph Stiglitz

Basic Ideas

• Old Capitalism focus is profit
• Ignores impact of people, communities,

society and the environment

• Thin value
• Constructive Capitalism is sustainable, and does

not allow people, communities, society and the natural world to come to economic harm

Pharmaceutical Companies

Demand for New Medicines

• Heart attacks Cancer survival
• Anti-infectives
• New medical conditions
• Respiratory illnesses
• Ageing populations

Costs of Drug Development

Solutions?

• Sufficient resources at early stages
• Network of R&D resources
• Biomarkers & Personalised Medicine?
• Adaptive Designs?
• More innovation, less “me-too”
• Cheaper R&D costs

Other Pressures

• Cost-constrained healthcare systems
• More demanding regulatory systems
• More informed and active patients
• $209BN of drug sales at risk from patent

expiries

• Some are predicting the extinction of the

industry

East vs West

• Interesting survey looking at growth in

Europe, US and Asia

• Scores based on management practices:-

– Monitoring – Target Setting – Incentives

Management Practice Scores

Management practice vs GDP

US/UK/India/China

The Future

• Big Questions
• Asia: Price, Quality
• West: Price, Demand

Price: Predicting the Future

Prices/Wages Years East

Price: Predicting the Future

Prices/Wages Years East West

Reality

This is certain… …work that can be done cheaper in Asia will move to Asia

– e.g. straightforward reporting

What can the West do?

• Comparison with Constructive Capitalism
• Stats/programming are an R&D cost
• Adding more value
• Work with our global partners
• Technological advances

Adding more value..

• Stats/programming as part of a drug

development company

• Consider the whole cost (not thin value)
• Involvement in work to improve the

probability of drugs getting on the market

• Better study design
• Reduce trial cycle time

Technological Advances

• Labour intensive process
• My 21 year view of technology advances
• Standardisation & Efficiency
• What I think we need

Price: Predicting the Future

Prices/Wages Years East West (routine)

Price: Predicting the Future

Prices/Wages Years East West (routine) West (innovative)

In Summary…

The West must compete in the global economy through specialisation and by adding value to everything we do. Developed nations can maintain their share of world markets by making more sophisticated products and incorporating technological prowess at every stage. They must compete on quality rather than price.

Peter Mandelson, 2011