PHASTAR The Future for the Western Statistics and Programming Communities in the Face of Globalisation Kevin Kane
Overview – The Global Economy – Pharmaceutical Companies – East vs West – Stats & Programming – The Future
Global Economy • The events of 2007 – “Great Repression” • Economic historian Niall Ferguson – “Great Contraction” • Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff – “Great Crash” • University of Berkeley’s Robert Reich
Capitalism The whole intellectual edifice of financial economics collapsed Alan Greenspan Large swaths of economics are going to have to be rethought Larry Summers The notion that unfettered markets, all by themselves, can ensure economic prosperity are growth… is over Joseph Stiglitz
Basic Ideas • Old Capitalism focus is profit • Ignores impact of people, communities, society and the environment • Thin value • Constructive Capitalism is sustainable, and does not allow people, communities, society and the natural world to come to economic harm
Pharmaceutical Companies
Demand for New Medicines • Heart attacks Cancer survival • Anti-infectives • New medical conditions • Respiratory illnesses • Ageing populations
Costs of Drug Development
Solutions? • Sufficient resources at early stages • Network of R&D resources • Biomarkers & Personalised Medicine? • Adaptive Designs? • More innovation, less “me-too” • Cheaper R&D costs
Other Pressures • Cost-constrained healthcare systems • More demanding regulatory systems • More informed and active patients • $209BN of drug sales at risk from patent expiries • Some are predicting the extinction of the industry
East vs West • Interesting survey looking at growth in Europe, US and Asia • Scores based on management practices:- – Monitoring – Target Setting – Incentives
Management Practice Scores
Management practice vs GDP
US/UK/India/China
The Future • Big Questions • Asia: Price, Quality • West: Price, Demand
Price: Predicting the Future Prices/Wages East Years
Price: Predicting the Future Prices/Wages West East Years
Reality This is certain… …work that can be done cheaper in Asia will move to Asia – e.g. straightforward reporting
What can the West do? • Comparison with Constructive Capitalism • Stats/programming are an R&D cost • Adding more value • Work with our global partners • Technological advances
Adding more value.. • Stats/programming as part of a drug development company • Consider the whole cost (not thin value ) • Involvement in work to improve the probability of drugs getting on the market • Better study design • Reduce trial cycle time
Technological Advances • Labour intensive process • My 21 year view of technology advances • Standardisation & Efficiency • What I think we need
Price: Predicting the Future Prices/Wages West (routine) East Years
Price: Predicting the Future West (innovative) Prices/Wages West (routine) East Years
In Summary… The West must compete in the global economy through specialisation and by adding value to everything we do. Developed nations can maintain their share of world markets by making more sophisticated products and incorporating technological prowess at every stage. They must compete on quality rather than price. Peter Mandelson, 2011
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