PERU: THE MONTHLY INDEX OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION INEI - INSTITUTO - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PERU: THE MONTHLY INDEX OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION

INEI - INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ESTADISTICA E INFORMATICA

MONTHLY INDEX OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE:

• Measure the trend of GDP in the short term
• To assess the effects of economic politics

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The Monthly Estimate of GDP, responds to the necessity to have economic indicators of short term, that facilitate the process of analysis and the decision making, as well as, of the measurement and evaluation of the effects of the economic policy in the conjuncture.

GDP: THE METHOD OF PRODUCTION

• The total value of goods and services

supplied by the economic system can be measured, in three alternative ways: in terms of

–unduplicated production, –incomes generated or –final expenditure.

• The production approach

production approach measures the contribution of each sector to total

• GDP. Aggregate value added by all

sectors is GDP of the country.

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Framework National Accounts

• The annual estimates of GDP by sector

are derived in the framework of the national accounts, while the monthly estimates are based on proxy indicators such as production, inputs, sales.

• The annual values of GDP serve as

benchmarks for the monthly estimates.

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FEATURES OF MONTHLY PRODUCTION INDEX AND THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS GDP

FEATURES MONTHLY PRODUCTION INDEX

• 1. Structure and Classification
• 2. Calculation Method
• 3. Base Period
• 4. Constant Prices
• 5. Periodicity
• 6. Coverage Information
• 7. Results Presentation

SNA 1993 Rev. 3 UU.NN.

Production Method Base Year 1994 = 100 Average Price 1994 Monthly Sample 45 days

SCN 1993 Rev. 3 NN.UU. Production, Expenditure, Income Base Year 1994 = 100 Average Price 1994 Quarterly and Annual Statistical Universe Quarterly: 60 days Annual: 180 days

QUARTERLY GDP AND ANNUAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS INEI - INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ESTADISTICA E INFORMATICA

FLOW OF DATA SOURCE OF MONTHLY INDEX OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION

DIRECT MEASUREMENT 68,28%

INDIRECT MEASUREMENT 31,72%

REPORT TECHNICAL MONTHLY

ESPECIALS SURVEYS

SECTOR SURVEYS ADMINISTRATIVE RECORDS

Sector Statistical Office National Statistical Office MONTHLY INDEX OF PRODUCTION National Statistical Office

45 days

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PRODUCCIÓN NACIONAL POR SECTORES ECONÓMICOS: JULIO 2010

• 14,57

STRUCTURE PERCENTAGE OF GDP IN 1994 BASE YEAR

DIRECT MEASUREMENT

: 68,28%

INDIRECT MEASUREMENT:

31,72%

Estimation Methods in the monthly calculation

ECONOMIC SECTOR WEIGHTING (%) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 100,00 Direct Indirect DI-Other Taxes on products 9,74 Import Duties 1,74 1,74 Other Taxes on Products 8,00 8,00 Agricultural 7,60 7,60 Fishing 0,72 0,72 Mining and Hydrocarbons 4,67 4,67 Manufacturing industries 15,98 15,98 Electricity and Water 1,90 1,90 Construction 5,58 Concrete Works 5,22 5,22 Concrete Works does not 0,10 0,10 Physical Progress of Works 0,26 0,26 Trade 14,57 Companies with 10 or more workers 8,81 Companies less than 10 employees 5,76 Transport and Communications 7,52 Rail, air, water and communications 2,54 Road 4,98 Government Services 6,33 6,33 Financial and Insurance 1,84 1,84 Restaurants and Hotels 4,17 4,17 Services Offered to Companies 7,10 Companies with 10 or more workers 3,73 Companies less than 10 employees 3,37 Other Services* 12,29 12,29 (*)Other Services include rental of Housing and Personal Services. MEASUREMENT

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APPROACHING TO GDP

• Generally, there are three approaches to estimating

monthly GDP at constant prices:

(1) valuing quantity data by applying base year unit values

Agriculture, Fishing, Mining

(2) price deflation

Services (Trade, Restaurants, personal services..)

(3) Extrapolation of volume index

Electricity, Hotels, Construction, Manufacturing, Transport

• In the construction of constant price GDP by industry

these methods are applied.

• The choice of which technique to use usually depends
• n data availability and suitability.
• For most industries data availability determines which

method to use.

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DATA SOURCES

• Agriculture and forestry: The estimation include farming and

livestock.

• Fishing: estimation include sea fishing, freshwater fish and other sea

products and culture fishing subsectors

• Mining: The estimation include Extraction of metallic minerals and

hydrocarbon

• Manufacturing: Volume index of industrial output
• Construction: Index of construction materials, Physical advance of

roads

• Trade: Volume indices of sale of motor vehicles, wholesale trade and

retail trade.

• Transport: Hauled freight in gross tonne-kilometres in rail goods

transport, passenger-kilometres, production of post and telecommunications.

• Hotels and Restaurants: monthly surveys about sales
• Financial intermediation: estimated regarding Financial statements of

bank companies, municipal and rural, financial companies

• Services given to companies: surveys to Real-estate companies, rent
• f machinery, activities of computer science, radio and television
• Services and public services: surveys and administrative records.

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The algebraic expression of this method of building a constant price series is: where q is the quantity and p is the price, n stands for the current and 0 for the base period, And i are the commodities. The summation covers the entire range of commodities produced by a particular sector. The real GVP of each sector is transformed into a index, comparing the monthly GVP Analyzed with respect to average GVP of the base year 1994 ESTIMATING THE INDEX OF GDP

The Gross Value of Production GVP in each sector is obtained by the sum

• f the gross value of each product at constant prices.

n i i n

q p GVP

, ,

*

∑

=

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IGVPn = Index of real gross value in the month n GVPpn = real gross production value in month n GVPpo = Gross Value of Production monthly average in the base year

100 *

, ,

• p

n p n

GVP GVP IGVP=

The real GVP of each sector is transformed into a Index comparing the monthly GVP analyzed with respect to average GVP of the base year 1994.

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ESTIMATING THE INDEX OF GDP

The Monthly Index of the National Production, is obtained by means

• f the aggregation weighted of the indexes of each sector that are

included in the conjuncture investigation

ESTIMATED MONTHLY INDEX OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION

The Monthly Index of National Production, is obtained by adding weighted indices for each sector, using as weighting factors, the annual percentages the base year.

100 * Vs Vs IGVP

t/o

∑ ∑

=

t

IGVPs

Simple index sector Weighing base year

Vs0 = Sector value in the base year ∑ Vs0 = Sum of base year Sector

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VALUATION AND ADJUSTMENT TO THE NATIONAL ANNUAL ACCOUNTS

• The evolution of the sectorial production measured

across the Gross Value of monthly Production (Po Qn) has several phases:

• First it passes to terms of Added Value using the

technical coefficients of the TIP (VAB / VBP) of the year base.

• Second, the added monthly sectorial value is adjusted

to the Value Added Anual of the National Accounts with the method of the Benchmarking, for what adding the monthly values there is obtained a value similar to that of the National Accounts, in every sector and the

• total. Hereby one handles the unique annual

information to institutional level.

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Timing of the release

• GDP by sector is released to the public on

a monthly basis 45 days after the end of the reference period. The release dates are announced in advance for each year. Monthly revisions

• When estimates of GDP by sector are

prepared for a current month, each three months they are revised. The main sources for the regular monthly revisions are the source of the data.

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REBASING

• In Peru, rebasing has traditionally been done at

fiveteen year intervals implementing, 1979 and 1994 as base years..

• The most up-to-date measures of monthly GDP

are expressed in term of 1994 New Soles. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS

• Seasonal adjustments of the monthly GDP data

are performed at the most detailed level

• possible. At the moment, the monthly GDP by

sector, use X-12-ARIMA for the seasonal adjustment of its time series

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2009 2008

*/ Last twelve months

Source: INEI.

MONTHLY VARIATION OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION: 2008-2010

(respect to similar month of a year before)

2010

Annual variation */ 3,54 %

Accumulated variation

8,29 % Anual variation */ 5,70 %

11,92 9,09 9,31 5,67 8,88 3,72 5,09 3,64 1,50 0,11 2,70 0,50

• 1,68

0,35 3,21 6,40 8,88 12,19 10,5410,74 12,77 8,42 7,29 14,24 12,69 11,35 5,52

• 0,97
• 0,17

9,05

• 2,43

229,7 210,6 212,7 140 160 180 200 220 240

E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J

• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Monthly variation of index Index of national production

1/ Annual variation of Monthly indicator. 2/ Annual variation of GDP. Source: INEI.

Comparison of the annual variation of the monthly Indicator and of the annual GDP: 1994-2009

• 4

4 8 12 16 20 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Monthly indicator 1/ Annual GDP 2/

Index of the monthly national production: 2005-2010

(1994 = 100)

Nota: Index adjusted by seasonal variation (ARIMA X–12).

Fuente: INEI E M M J S N E M M J S N E M M J S N E M M J S N E M M J S N E M M J 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Original serie Adjusted serie

Monthly variation of National Production: 2008-2010

(percentage variation)

1/ Variation % respect to one year before. 2/ Variation % respect to a month before. Fuente: INEI

• 6,0
• 3,0

0,0 3,0 6,0 9,0 12,0 15,0 18,0 E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J A S O N D E F M A M J J 2008 2009 2010 Original serie 1/ Ajusted serie 2/

MONTHLY INDICATOR OF NATIONAL PRODUCTION: 1994-2010

(Annual Variation of moving average12 – base 1994)

Source: INEI.

3,54 10,39 9,73 8,03 6,77 3,44 5,13 4,42

• 0,75

4,68

• 1,13

3,57 5,34 4,32 15,29 13,06

• 6,00
• 1,00

4,00 9,00 14,00 19,00 E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J O E A J 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

5,70%

Thank you! Thank you!

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