perspektive from multivariate analysis of PBL Profiles Ronny Petrik - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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perspektive from multivariate analysis of PBL Profiles Ronny Petrik - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Occasion What do we gain from the regional reanalysis products - a perspektive from multivariate analysis of PBL Profiles Ronny Petrik , Beate Geyer, Burkhardt Rockel (Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht) 17.7.2018 / Bonn Many thanks to the data

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Occasion

What do we gain from the regional reanalysis products - a perspektive from multivariate analysis of PBL Profiles

17.7.2018 / Bonn Many thanks to the data providers at CESAR, at Uni Hamburg (Ingo Lange, Felix Ament) and at MOL Lindenberg (Udo Rummel, Frank Beyrich) Many thanks to comments from UKMetOffice (Jemma Davie)

Ronny Petrik , Beate Geyer, Burkhardt Rockel (Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht)

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Regional hindcasts and reanalyses

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REA6/UERRA*

  • F-CCLM
  • regional reanalysis from the UERRA Projekt:

SMHI (Harmonie) and UK-Met Office (UKMO)

  • COSMO-REA6 provided by University of Bonn

(Bollmeyer et al., 2015)

  • Realistic hindcasts of HZG using Large-Scale

Constraint and pure regional downscaling

  • F-CCLM

COSMO-REA6 UERRA-SMHI UERRA-UKMO Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Deutscher Wetter- dienst / Uni. Bonn SMHI UKMet-Office Large-Scale constraint / pures Downscaling Continuous nudging / OI OI / 3D-VAR 4D-VAR MERRA2 / ERA inter ERA inter ERA inter

  • 0.06°

0.06° 0.11° 0.11°

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Impact of assimilation / nudging techniques (Low Christian, October 2013)

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MIKLIP_DECREG Contineous Nudging Pure downscaling Large-Scale const. Large-Scale const (HD)

1.8 3.8 5.8 7.8 9.8 11.8 13.8 15.8

Sting jet dynamics: high level winds transported downwards within strong downdrafts (radio sounding Emden: 160 km/h at 500 m above ground)

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October 2013 – Performance of 10m wind

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  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

Pure down. (oF-CCLM) Large-scale HD (oF-CCLM) Large-scale (oF-CCLM)

MAE, Benelux

→ most positive impact by large scale constraints, further improvement due to HD and assimilation (contineuous nudging)

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Evaluation of lower boundary layer

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  • Long-term data of wind or temperature or

humidity only for some locations

  • not everywhere a mast correction is available

(e.g. MOL)

  • masts at Hamburg, MOL, FINO1 and Cabauw

considered here

Standorte von Grenzschichtmasten (@googlemaps)

@Lange (UHH) @MOL (DWD)

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HH-Billwerder, Daily cycle of wind speed (2007)

  • Daytime increase at near

ground levels

  • Daytime decrease at

elevated levels

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Large-Scales, oF-CCLM

  • Cont. Nudg., REA6

10m-data not combined … …with 3D-data

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Pure Downscaling, oF-CCLM Large Scales, oF-CCLM

Falkenberg, Daily cycle of wind speed (2007)

  • Cont. Nudg., REA6
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Lindenberg wind profile – error measures (2007)

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MAE, wind speed

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

UE-SMHI UE-UKMO Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM)

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

UE-SMHI Large-Scale (oF-CCLM) UE-UKMO Pure Down. (oF-CCLM)

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HH-Billwerder, daily cycle of stability

Stratification (10m to 110m): very stable (dT/dz > 0.0 K/m), stable (-0.009 < dT/dz < 0.0 K/m), neutral (-0.011<dT/dz<0.009 K/m), unstable (dT/dz < -0.011 K/m) Number of hours with specific stability classes (2006-2007)

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HH-Billwerder, T-Gradient + wind profile (2006-2007) lnstabil Stabil

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

measurement UE-SMHI UE-UKMO Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM)

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HH-Billwerder, very stable stratification

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Sehr stabil

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

measurement UE-SMHI UE-UKMO Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM)

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Hamburg Falkenberg Cabauw HH-Billwerder, very stable stratification

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

measurement UE-SMHI UE-UKMO Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM)

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Falkenberg Cabauw HH-Billwerder, distribution T-gradient at ~100m

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

Measurement (obsolete) UE-SMHI UE-UKMO Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM)

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Large Scales, oF-Merra

Turbulence intensity, HH-Billwerder (2006)

Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scales (oF-CCLM) HH-Billwerder

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Temporal consistency, HH-Billwerder (2006)

  • Cont. Nudg., REA6

UERRA-UKMO Large-Scales oF-CCLM

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

UE-SMHI UE-UKMO Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM)

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Resolving power up-ramps, Falkenberg (2006-2007)

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM) UERRA-SMHI UERRA-UKMO

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Conclusion

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4D-Var/3D-Var (UKMO / SMHI) Kontinuierl. Nudging (REA-6) Large-Scale Constraint Pures Down- scaling

10m wind ++ + .. ++

  • „PBL“ daily cycle
  • +

+ + „PBL“ profiles + + .. ++ +

  • „PBL“ temporal

consistency. ++ (4D-Var); + (3D-Var) + .. ++ +

  • „PBL“ dT/dz

++ (SMHI, vs); + (UKMO) + + + „PBL“ turb. variab. + .. ++ ++

  • Simulations using COSMO offer sharing of error characteristics: e.g. profiles

during very strong stratitifcations -> best way to distinguish between model families / parameterizations

  • Runs without any assimilation / nudging clearly seperate from others, and runs

with large-scale constraint are much closer to „true“ reanalysis

  • Radiation errors within COSMO family call for postprocessing or resimulation
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Season of maximum solar elevation angle (2006-2007)

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  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

SARAH2 Aerocom v2 Aerosols (oF-CCLM-AC2) Pure Down. (oF-CCLM) Large-Scale (oF-CCLM)

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Future

  • openFRED: database for open source energy system modelling
  • 1. step: fill the database with data from the COSMO-REA6 analysis (mostly

best way of error correction, e.g. 10m wind) and with data from realistic hindcast (oF-CCLM) to fullfill the needs of users‘s

  • 2. step: dependent on application usage of ensemble spread for e.g. cloudy

situations or temporally most-consistent member (UERRRA-UKMO)

  • hope to consider parameterizations/diagnostics and ideas for model

development coming out of our investigation for the next reanalysis runs

  • hope to catch some data missing on the UERRA-archives

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Christopher Frank (tomorrow)

Planetary boudary layers seen by most recent regional reanalysis (in prep.)

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Danke für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit

Christian reaches FINO1 – very fast

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ronny.petrik@hzg.de

Measurement coastdatIII

  • Cont. Nudg. (REA6)

Large-Scale (oF-CCLM) Pure Down. (oF-CCLM)

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Additionals

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excurse “spectral nudging”

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smaller scales

Taken from Feser (2005)

Practical point of view

  • technically a nudging term is

added in the „spectral domain“ of specific prognostic variables

  • dependent on height (not

altitude)

  • wave number truncation, i.e.

„free“ development of small scales)

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HH-Billwerder vs. Falkenberg, Schichtungen

Zum Vergleich: Lindenberg

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Daily Cycle, LI-Temp-2006, BIAS

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  • SAFRAN surface analysis is reducing the error snow cover in the Alps and in France
  • Members of SURFEX-ENS show a uncertainty for snow cover in the alps
  • for regions at 3000 meters there is a clear underestimation of snow depth, but the lowest for

SAFRAN

  • SURFEX guy mentioned that some measurements lead to problems for assimilation systems

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