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Personal priors Triple handicap Been spending too much time in the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 22, 2022 207 likes •606 views

T HE N ATIONAL S ECURITY -E NERGY N EXUS S TEPHAN D E S PIEGELEIRE HCSS S ENIOR S CIENTIST R OYAL H IGHER I NSTITUTE FOR D EFENCE , B RUSSELS , M AY 13, 2013 Personal priors Triple handicap Been spending too much time in the future recently

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SLIDE 1

THE NATIONAL SECURITY-ENERGY NEXUS

STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE HCSS SENIOR SCIENTIST ROYAL HIGHER INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE, BRUSSELS, MAY 13, 2013

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SLIDE 2

Personal priors

Triple handicap

Been spending too much time in the future recently Very critical about (much) security foresight (been fried before) I think the securitistas have usually ended up on the ‘wrong’ side of

resource scarcity issues

Main theses:

Global energy landscape being dramatically reshaped – for the better Europe’s ‘security of supply’ hasn’t looked this bright since decades Key policy levers are R&D, markets and diversification (both in energy

and in geographical source), NOT traditional geopolitics much room for adaptability

We need a balanced (whole-of-government/society) policy discussion

in which defence and security organizations can play an important catalyzing role

(Adaptive!!!) policy choices are still required

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SLIDE 3

Multi-perspective approach missing in action

Many different perspectives

Energy crowd (policy, commercial, professionals) Business crowd (competitive advantage) ‘Policy’ crowd (fighting their battles) Environmental crowd (red-green/blue-green) Ideological crowd Technology crowd (‘old’/new, closed/open innovation) Geopolitical crowd (of various ilk) The ‘public’

Very little cross-perspective analysis

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SLIDE 4

“We must become the

  • wners, or at any rate the

controllers at the source,

  • f at least a proportion of

the oil which we require.” British Royal Commission, agreeing with Winston Churchill's policy towards Iraq , 1913

Churchill and the Creation of the Energy-Security Nexus

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SLIDE 5

The Energy-Defence Nexus: Today and Tomorrow

Much (defence and security foresight) now focuses on

‘energy’ issues

Until fairly recently (2010), the tenor of that foresight work

was negative: energy security is in danger, we need to start playing ‘hard ball’

The tenor is starting to change towards a brighter picture [Energy security considerations are also a growing

component of military planning and operations]

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SLIDE 6

Security Energy in Defence Foresight

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SLIDE 7

EDA on energy

Deep Uncertainty

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SLIDE 8

More Direct Link between Energy and Our Armed Forces

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SLIDE 9

Structure of the presentation

‘Energy’ as a case study for

How to redefine defence and security in an era of austerity How to deal with uncertainty in defence and security planning New mode(l)s of post-industrial governance that go beyond the

stovepipes

What do ‘security’ and ‘defence’ really mean today? Some ‘big picture’ insights on the rapidly changing global

energy landscape and its uncertainties

How to ‘fit’ energy security into national security

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SLIDE 10

MEANING OF ‘DEFENCE’ AND ‘SECURITY’

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SLIDE 11

? ?

Meaning of ‘security’

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SLIDE 12

Epochal change

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SLIDE 13

‘Armed Force’ as a Reflection of the Age

Industrial society Agrarian society Age Nomadic (Hunter/gatherer) Hot Thermal Nation-State Cold Mechanical Settlement Bare Hands Human Clan

‘Arms’ Energy Unit

Post-industrial society: Information and knowledge age Age

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SLIDE 14

Impact of Epochal Change

Pre-industrial Industrial Post-industrial

Actors

Chieftains ‘Princes’ (link x nation states) States + non-states

Armed Forces

Ad-hoc forces (no permanent larger than 3000 – v Creveld) Permanent (industrial) armed forces ?

‘Arms’

Bare-handed/Cold Industrial platforms/Hot much more diverse (DIME

Organization

Clan Linear Network

Structure

Vertical simple hierarchy Vertical multi-layered hierarchy Heterarchy?

Connectedness

Singular force (all-in-one) Connected (e.g. CS & CSS) Distributed?

Weather

‘Fair-weather’ Year-round 24/7 Pervasive

Domain

Mostly land, some sea Land-Air-Sea Multi-domain (space, cyber

Effects through

Concentration Mass (economies of scale) Network (economies )

Level

Tactical Operational(/strategic) Fused

Projection

Local Line-of-sight Global

Mode

Hit-and-run / Siege Linear Attrition & Manoeuvre Network ?

Specialization

All-in-one Advanced role specialization Network

Time of ‘battle’

Punctuated Punctuated Pervasive

C2

Heroic leadership Increasingly sophisticated C2 Network

Planning

Rudimentary planning Deliberate purposive planning Adaptive planning

Model

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SLIDE 15

‘Grand Strategic’ Planning

What Is ‘Security’ Planning

…

Information Planning Development Aid Planning Diplomatic Planning ‘National Security’ Planning Force planning Defence Planning Operational planning

Quick response procurement

Time

Now Future

Forward planning

Scope (e.g. DOTMLPFI)

Narrow Broad

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SLIDE 16

THE ‘BIG PICTURE’ OF ENERGY SECURITY

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SLIDE 17

Energy security

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SLIDE 18

Drivers of the Energy Future

Technology and Technology and Technology and Technology and policy policy policy policy Demand Growth Demand Growth Demand Growth Demand Growth

  • GDP & pop. growth

GDP & pop. growth GDP & pop. growth GDP & pop. growth

  • urbanization

urbanization urbanization urbanization

Security Security Security Security

  • f Supply
  • f Supply
  • f Supply
  • f Supply

Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts Supply Challenges Supply Challenges Supply Challenges Supply Challenges

  • Significant resources

Significant resources Significant resources Significant resources

  • Non

Non Non Non-

  • conventionals

conventionals conventionals conventionals

  • Local pollution

Local pollution Local pollution Local pollution

  • Climate change

Climate change Climate change Climate change

  • Dislocation of resources

Dislocation of resources Dislocation of resources Dislocation of resources

  • Import dependence

Import dependence Import dependence Import dependence

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SLIDE 19

ENERGY DEMAND

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SLIDE 20

Growth in Energy Demand Due to Economic Activity

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.00 Primary Energy per capita (GJ) GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)

US US US US Australia Australia Australia Australia Russia Russia Russia Russia Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil China China China China

  • S. Korea
  • S. Korea
  • S. Korea
  • S. Korea

Mexico Mexico Mexico Mexico Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland Greece Greece Greece Greece France France France France

UK UK UK UK

Japan Japan Japan Japan Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia India India India India

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SLIDE 21

Energy Demand Breakdown vs. Time

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 1971 2002 2030

Source: IEA WEO 2004

Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants

  • 2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service

Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030)

Energy Demand (bnboe)

Key: Key: Key: Key:

  • industry
  • transport
  • power
  • other sectors

BNBOE=Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent 1 BNBOE = 6.11x1018 Joules

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SLIDE 22

200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Population (Million People) Energy Consuption (boe/cap)

Energy Consumption and Population Selected Countries (2010)

Total Energy Consumption

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SLIDE 23

48,8 45,9 13,9 10,5 10,1 6,4 6,4 5,1 5,1 5,1 4,3 4,2 4,0 3,5 3,4 3,0 2,8 2,4 56,1

15 30 45 60

Energy Consumption (2010) MM boe/day

Source: BP Statistical Review, 2011

Total Consumption: 241 MMboe/day

Current Energy Scenario - Total Energy Consumptio

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SLIDE 24

Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

rld energy consumption adrillion Btu

  • Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011

100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Non-OECD OECD 244 260 482 288 History Projections 2008

  • Energy consumption will grow by approximately 40% u
  • The largest growth will be in developing countries
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SLIDE 25

World Energy Demand Growth

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2005 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 World Energy Consumption MM boe/day

Non-OECD OECD

Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook Issue: October 2011

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SLIDE 26

World Energy Demand Growth

  • Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) will continu

the main sources of energy

  • Supply of renewable sources of energy will grow

significantly, but still remain a complementary sou energy 30 60 90 120

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type MMboe/day

Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables

Liquids: Conventional (oil, condensate, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains) Non-Conventional (oil sands, extra heavy oil, biofuels, GTL, CTL) Source: EIA Outlook Issue: October 2011

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SLIDE 27

Global fundamentals

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SLIDE 28

3 6 9 2010 2020 2030 2040 Population

Billion

Population Trends Impacts Energy Use

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OECD Africa China India Southeast Asia Latin America

Fertility Rate*

Children per Woman

* Source: World Bank & United Nations

OECD Other Non OECD China India Africa

3 6 9 2010 2020 2030 2040 Global Demographics*

Billion Age 0-14 Age 65+ Age 15-64

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 29

25 50 75 100 125 2000 2020 2040 Energy Demand

Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand

GDP

Trillion 2005$ China United States

2010-2040 AAGR %

5.6% 2.3% 1.8% Other OECD Other Non OECD 3.9%

World 2.8%

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

250 500 750 1000 1250 2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

2010-2040 AAGR % World 1.0% 250 500 750 1000 1250 2000 2020 2040 Energy Demand

Quadrillion BTUs Energy Saved ~500

2010-2040 AAGR % World 1.0%

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SLIDE 30

100 200 300 400 500 2000 2020 2040 100 200 300 400 500 2000 2020 2040

T ale of Two Worlds

Non OECD

Quadrillion BTUs Biomass Other Renewables Oil Nuclear Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Coal Gas

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 31

25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0%

2040 2010

0.8% 1.7%

  • 0.1%

2.4% 0.4% 5.8% 1.8%

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 32

50 100 150 200 250 300 Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Demand

Energy Demand by Sector 50 100 150 200 250 300 Electricity Generation Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Quadrillion BTUs 2010 2025 2040

Electricity Generation Leads Growth

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 33

Residential/commercial

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SLIDE 34

150 300 450 600 750 Europe OECD

  • N. America

Other OECD China Africa India Latin America Russia/ Caspian Middle East Other Non OECD Million Households

Household Growth Drives Residential Demand

2010 2040

2040

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 35

25 50 75 100 125 150 2000 2020 2040

Residential/Commercial Outlook

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2020 2040 Residential Energy Intensity

Million BTUs per Person Japan North America Europe OECD China India

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs Commercial Residential

25 50 75 100 125 150 2000 2020 2040 Fuel Demand

Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Coal Oil Gas Biomass Other

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 36

But…

Not all scenarios Still too ‘pointy’ (no ‘futuribles’)yuqwwwjjq ‘Capability’ planning not fully done Still need for a whole-of-government analysis:

What do we know? What could it mean for US? What can we do about it (‘the ability to’)

Subsidiarity issues (EU)

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SLIDE 37

Conclusion

Defence and security are changing The energy landscape is changing quickly

Much of it is for the better There remain a number of important problems And some new ‘elegant transition’ ones are looming (what happens

countries that were hit by the resource curse in a more energy-‘equa world – Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

This requires a whole-of-government (and even whole-of-

society) approach, in which our ‘defense’ organisations can play a key role

Experience in planning (operational and increasingly also strategic Longer time horizons