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People Perception about Climate Change and People Perception about Climate Change and Adaptation in the Arid Region of Pakistan Adaptation in the Arid Region of Pakistan

Saif Saif Ullah Ullah Khan Khan

• Prof. Dr.
• Prof. Dr. Mahmood

Mahmood-

• Ul

Ul-

• Hasan

Hasan

• Prof. Dr. Muhammad
• Prof. Dr. Muhammad Aslam

Aslam Khan Khan

Institute of Geography, Urban & Regional Planning, Disaster Management, University of Peshawar, KPK, Pakistan The 2nd World Sustainability Forum 1-30 November 2012

Scheme of Presentation Scheme of Presentation

• Abstract
• Introduction
• Location of the study area
• Methods and Data
• Findings and discussions
• Adaptation to climate change

– Water Sector adaptation – Coastal management – Agriculture – Forestry – Drought and Desertification

• Mitigation

– Early warning system and monitoring – Raising public awareness – Improving R&D facilities:

• Conclusion and Recommendations
• Acknowledgment

Introduction Introduction

The paper analyzes public perception regarding climate change and adaptation in the arid region of Pakistan 1961-2000 in terms of surface water, coastal management, overgrazing, deforestation, agriculture and livestock, drought and desertification, public awareness, emergency response, early warning system and monitoring, landuse change, waterlogging, and sources of energy etc. Research declaration:

• The gross per capita water availability in Pakistan was 5300 m3/year

(1951) that decline to 1200 m3/year (2000).

• Due to decrease in precipitation of about 0.05inches (-1.27mm) and

increase in temperature of 1.6 0C (1961-2000), the climate in Pakistan shows a more vulnerable condition from 1961-2000.

Study Area Location Study Area Location

• Aridity prevails over 676,400

sq.km area of Pakistan. The current arid region of Pakistan comprises of Gilgit-Baltistan province in the north, southern Punjab, whole of Sind, central and southern Baluchistan, and parts of Chitral and Dera Ismail Khan Districts in Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa province.

• Arid region extends northeast

to southwest from latitude 370N into 23 1/20N and longitude 60oE to 75oEast.

Methodology Methodology

Variables Variables

• Precipitation
• Temperature
• Surface water
• Coastal Management
• Natural Disasters
• Agriculture
• Drought and Desertification
• Energy Sector

Objectives Objectives

The main objective of the study is to know the public opinion and awareness about the climate change, causes, and adaptation in the arid region of Pakistan. Research Questions:

• what is the public opinion regarding

climate change, its impacts and how to cope with the problem?

• Are people of the arid region aware about

this issue and willing to participate on the actions required?

Research Hypothesis Research Hypothesis

Changes in the temperature and Changes in the temperature and precipitation in Pakistan have affected precipitation in Pakistan have affected agriculture in arid lands of Pakistan agriculture in arid lands of Pakistan severely and people perception is need severely and people perception is need for the adaptation strategies to cope with for the adaptation strategies to cope with the situation. the situation.

Methodology Methodology

Data collection

The work is based on primary data collected from the field questionnaire survey and personal interviews. The major questions are about temperature and precipitation fluctuation, deforestation, overgrazing, drought, desertification, landuse change, wars, crop production, population growth, construction of water reservoirs, river flow, environment policies, and willingness to cope with the climate change issue. As the security situation is not good in the entire arid region. Therefore, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the arid region of the lower Punjab, parts of Balochistan, Sind, Gilgit- Baltistan, and Upper and lower Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces taking into account random sampling method. The sample areas covers about 25 districts having different kind of desert landforms like pure desert, piedmont plains, irrigated desert, sand dunes, steppe, and barren mountains.

Analysis of Data Analysis of Data

The work is based on primary data collected from the field questionnaire survey and personal interviews. The major questions are about temperature and precipitation fluctuation, deforestation,

• vergrazing,

drought, desertification, landuse change, wars, crop production, population growth, construction of water reservoirs, river flow, environment policies, and willingness to cope with the climate change issue. As the security situation is not good in the entire arid region. Therefore, a questionnaire survey was conducted in the arid region of the lower Punjab, parts of Balochistan, Sind, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Upper and lower Khyber Pukhtunkhwa provinces taking into account random sampling method. The sample areas covers about 25 districts having different kind of desert landforms like pure desert, piedmont plains, irrigated desert, sand dunes, steppe, and barren mountains. It represents a clear picture of the entire arid region of Pakistan. The questionnaires were distributed among the students and teachers of the University of Bahawalpur, Peshawar, Karachi, and Quetta. The people who are surveyed and interviewed are including professors, lecturers, M.Sc and M.Phil students, farmers, lawyers, and statisticians. Total of 150 questionnaires were distributed in which 130 questionnaires were returned with complete answers (Graph-1) and used for the analysis. Generally, approximately 6 questionnaires were collected from each district. A master sheet has been prepared from the public opinion that classified into tables and charts for the purpose of analysis and conclusion.

Natural Disasters (Floods) Natural Disasters (Floods) As Evidence of Climate Change As Evidence of Climate Change

Kalam, Place of Origin Nowshera City

Charsadda

Jehangira Chakdara Fort Sind Province

Natural Disasters (Land Slide, Snow Natural Disasters (Land Slide, Snow Avalanches & Tectonic Moment) Avalanches & Tectonic Moment)

Trapped 100 Pak Army, Skardu Skardu

Land Slide at Hunza Valley

Earthquake 2005

Physiography: Gilgit Physiography: Gilgit-

• Baltistan

Baltistan

Bunji, GB Gilgit City and Surroundings Hunza, Valley, GB Joint of Lesser Himalaya, K2, and Hindukush Mountains, near Gilgit

Gilgit River Gilgit River Indus River Indus River

Physiography and Natural Vegetation, Physiography and Natural Vegetation, Sind, Punjab, and Baluchistan Sind, Punjab, and Baluchistan

Mangrooves, Manora, Karachi Umarkot, Sind Chhor, Sind Khirthar Mountains Sind

Arid Baluchistan Arid Baluchistan

Gawadar Highway Kech, Baluchistan Chagai, Baluchistan

Mir Chakar Khan Fort

Baluchistan Coastal Region Baluchistan Coastal Region

Buzi Pass Gawadar Mastung Sand Dues, Chagai

Precipitation Distribution Precipitation Distribution

Annual Precipitation and Temperature Annual Precipitation and Temperature

Graph-4.2: Arid Region Deviation of Mean Monthly Temperature and Precipitation from the Mean

• 30.0
• 20.0
• 10.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Months Mean Monthly Precipitation (Inches)

• 15.0
• 10.0
• 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

Mean Monthly Temperature (0C)

Precipitation

• 6.1

1.1 12.2

• 0.1
• 10.9
• 8.9

41.7 33.4

• 4.1
• 19.9
• 23.7
• 14.7

Temperature

• 11.6
• 9.0
• 3.9

1.7 5.9 8.9 9.0 7.9 5.3 0.8

• 4.9
• 10.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Graph-6.1: Arid Region Palmer Drought Severity Index Latitudes 250-300 North and Longitudes 620-720 East (1871- 2000)

• 4.0
• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

Years Palmer Drought Severity Index

Results and Discussions Results and Discussions Annual Decline in Precipitation Annual Decline in Precipitation

Graph-1: Arid Reigion Annual Trend of Precipitation (1961-2000)

• 1.50
• 1.00
• 0.50

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Years Deviation from the Mean

Total Seasonal Fluctuation Total Seasonal Fluctuation

Graph-13: Arid Region Total Oscillation of Seasonal Precipitation (1961-2000)

• 0.12
• 0.1
• 0.08
• 0.06
• 0.04
• 0.02

0.02 0.04 0.06 Seasons Sum of Devitation from the mean (Inches) 1961-2000

• 0.05
• 0.04

0.05

• 0.11

Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon Post-Monsoon

Results and Discussions Results and Discussions Gross per capita Gross per capita Availabilty Availabilty

Graph-6: Pakistan Per Capita Availability of Water Resources 1951-2000

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Years Water per Capita (M3) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Population (Millions) Per Capita Availability 5300 3950 2700 2100 1600 1200 Population 34 46 65 84 115 148 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2000

Hina Hina Lake, Lake, Quetta Quetta Baluchistan Baluchistan

Hina Lake,Winter Hina Lake, Spring Season Hina Lake, Dry Summer Desert Landforms, Gawadar

Expansion in the Arid Region 1961 Expansion in the Arid Region 1961-

• 2000

2000

Water Sector Adaptation Water Sector Adaptation

• Water Conservation

Water Conservation

– – Construction of new Water Reservoirs Construction of new Water Reservoirs – – Construction of Seasonal Reservoirs Construction of Seasonal Reservoirs – – Construction of Small Dams Construction of Small Dams – – Construction of Inland Dams/lakes: Construction of Inland Dams/lakes: – – Construction of Inland Ponds Construction of Inland Ponds

• Construction of River Embankments

Construction of River Embankments

• Well planned Drinking Water Supply

Well planned Drinking Water Supply

• Improvement in the Irrigation system

Improvement in the Irrigation system

• Public Awareness Using Mass media

Public Awareness Using Mass media

• Policy for Water Management

Policy for Water Management

• Establishment of Research and Development fund

Establishment of Research and Development fund

• Planning for water resources

Planning for water resources

• Foundation of Arid region development Center

Foundation of Arid region development Center

Adaptation to Coastal Management Adaptation to Coastal Management

• To build up coastal management regulations.

To build up coastal management regulations.

• Early

Early-

• warning and response systems regarding erosion,

warning and response systems regarding erosion, deposition, change in the coastal land forms, floods, cyclones deposition, change in the coastal land forms, floods, cyclones etc. etc.

• Designing of mega projects for the purpose to purify the salt

Designing of mega projects for the purpose to purify the salt and to save the costal region from water logging and salinity and to save the costal region from water logging and salinity

• To develop airborne irrigation system for the entire arid areas

To develop airborne irrigation system for the entire arid areas

• f
• f Baluchistan

Baluchistan and and Sind Sind provinces using ocean water. provinces using ocean water.

• To design projects for improvement of the sea beaches for the

To design projects for improvement of the sea beaches for the tourism purposes in tourism purposes in Baluchistan Baluchistan and and Sind Sind. .

Adaptation to Agriculture Adaptation to Agriculture

• Development of agricultural infrastructure

Development of agricultural infrastructure

• Crop choice
• Investment in irrigation infrastructure:
• Water saving technologies:
• Basic technology needs
• Crop yield and water management
• Expansion in irrigation system

Adaptation to Forestry Adaptation to Forestry

• National level forest policy and laws.
• Comprehensive monitoring system for forests resources and

ecosystem

• Protection of existing forest resources and other natural

ecosystems.

• Strengthen controls on forest fires, insects and diseases.
• Biodiversity conservation and restoration
• Establish National Center for Forests and Wildlife on Federal

and provincial level.

• Implementation of climate change adaptation taxes on

industrial sector.

• Educate locals about the impacts of deforestation on the

physical environment using mass media and community program.

Early warning system and monitoring Early warning system and monitoring

• To counter flood and storms, local governments are

required to develop city flood control and water drainage plans.

• To introduce new technologies for the monitoring

and early warning system for flood, surface water, earthquakes, cyclones etc.

• To improve the forecasting of weather for agriculture

and also to develop new forecasting centers throughout the arid region to control drought and desertification, water flow etc.

Raising Public Awareness Raising Public Awareness

• All level of governmental officials, decision-makers and educational

institutions should be exposed to climate change information and work toward raising public awareness.

• Pakistan is required to employ the power of the mass media to

disseminate information about climate change through books, newspapers, periodicals, audio and video products, and the Internet. Government is needed to integrate knowledge about climate change into the education curriculum of the arid region.

• To establish an incentive mechanism to encourage public and

enterprise participation, increase the transparency of decision-making processes related to climate change issues, promote public supervision, and encourage social groups and NGOs to play active roles in the adaptation of climate change especially in Baluchistan.

• To strengthen international cooperation on public awareness related

to climate change issues, especially good practices on climate change information dissemination and education.

Improving R&D Facilities Improving R&D Facilities

• Establish of Dry Land Research and Development Funds
• n federal and provincial level.
• R&D should be run through experts and highly

specialized people.

• Promote scientific research and technological

development .

• Establish effective incentive and competition

mechanisms and a favorable academic environment for researchers, foster academic leaders and eminent candidates.

• Establishment of arid region climate change science and

technology management Center.

• Use of the multilateral funds from foreign governments

and international organizations.

Adaptation to Drought and Adaptation to Drought and Desertification Desertification

• Awareness of the serious deterioration of the natural resources

in the areas around the deserts.

• Mobilization and exploitation of water resources in different

parts of the arid region.

• Control on the far reaching change in the land use of the arid

region.

• Establishment of emergency response plan.
• Storage of rainy water in pools or artificial ponds.
• Plantation of drought resistant crops and vegetation.
• To introduce comprehensive soil management techniques and

technologies.

• Matching of soil types with appropriate crops and to educate

the locals regarding the crops and soil matching process.

• To grow plantation forests, especially the acacia tree, in the

surroundings of the arid region to control desertification.

Conclusion and Recommendations Conclusion and Recommendations

• To control deforestation, population growth, and over grazing.
• To control atmospheric pollution, addition of chlorofluorocarbons, wars in the entire

region, nuclear conflicts, and vehicle emissions.

• To introduce early warning system for floods and drought.
• To prefer construction of new dams and barrages for the storage of flood water.
• To take action for the depletion of underground water.
• To aware the public regarding the impact of climate change using mass media and to

include climate change concept in the curriculum at school level.

• To reserve funds for reforestation on mountains and to control deforestation in the

entire region.

• To convince people for individual struggle and to preserve the national resources.
• To decrease the multiple cropping on agriculture land in the arid region.
• To introduce modern machinery for the cultivation of crops in the arid region.
• To encourage usage of natural gas or solar energy instead of petroleum, coal, and

forests.

• To increase literacy ratio and community based programs for the awareness of people

regarding climate change.

• To revise environmental policy and to make sure Implementation of environmental laws
• n national level.

Thank You