peace, security and stability in Asia Shingo YAMAGAMI Overview In - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Japan’s greater contribution to peace, security and stability in Asia

Shingo YAMAGAMI

Overview

• In the 21st century, we are facing:
• Rapidly changing global power balance
• Technological progress
• Emerging threats (WMD proliferation,

International terrorism, Cyber attacks etc.)

• In East Asia, security environment has

become increasingly severer.

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Overview

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Overview

Increased by; - 4100% in 27 years

• 360% in 10 years

*Two digit increase since 1989, except 2010

3 Change in China’s Announced Defense Budget

10% Line (Compared to the previous year) 9.8 % 10.1 %

The defense budget of China is 3.3 times larger than the defense related expenditures of Japan

• Japan (FY2015): 4.82 trillion yen
• China (FY2015, announced): 16.132 trillion yen

Regional Affairs 1 : Korean Peninsula

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Chronology of ballistic missile(BM) launches and nuclear tests by North Korea 1993.5.29: launch of a BM 1998.8.31: “satellite launch” 2006.7.5: multiple launches of BMs 2006.10.9: nuclear test 2009.4.5: “satellite launch” 2009.5 25: nuclear test 2009.7.4: multiple launches of BMs 2012.4.13: “satellite launch” 2012.12.12: “satellite launch” 2013.2.12: nuclear test 2014.3.3: launches of two BMs 2014.3.26: launches of two BMs 2014.6.29: multiple launches of BMs 2014.7.9: multiple launches of BMs 2014.7.13: launches of two BMs 2014.7.26: launch of a BM 2015.3.2: launches of two BMs 2016.1.6 : nuclear test 2016.2.7: “satellite launch” BM launch: 15 times nuclear test: 4 times

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• Directly relates to the peace and stability in the

Asia-Pacific region

• Common issues of interests and concerns for the

international community including Japan

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ①

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Source: http://amti.csis.org/before-and-after

• the-south-china-sea-transformed/

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ②

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• Scarborough Shoal

Fiery Cross Reef Woody Island Sanya 700km 900km 650km 1,100km

Riau Islands (Indonesia) Thitu Is. (P) Spratly Is. (V) Swallow Reef (M) Itu Aba Is. (T) Pratas Is. (T)

• 700km

Da Nang

Cam Ranh

China’s Strategy to Gain Sea Control Step-2: China’s Strategic Triangle

Source: Vice Adm. (Ret.) Yoji Koda

Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ③

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Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ④

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China’s position?

(from the ”Philippine Star”, 11 Aug 2015, placed by the Embassy of China in the Philippines)

Here is a gentle reminder to the Philippines: China will not bully small countries, meanwhile, small countries shall not make trouble willfully and endlessly. Ads on a Philippine newspaper

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying (May 26, 2015)

“Three principles

• n the rule of law at sea”

(Proposed by Prime Minister Abe in his keynote address of 13th IISS Asian Security Summit "Shangri-La Dialogue", May 30, 2014)

• 1. States shall make and clarify their claims based on

international law

• 2. States shall not use force or coercion in trying to

drive their claims

• 3. States shall seek to settle disputes by peaceful

means

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Regional Affairs 2 : South China Sea ⑤

Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ①

• Increasing intrusions into territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands

[Started in 2008, still continue]

• Ramming of a Chinese fishing boat into Japan Coast Gard patrol vessels in

territorial waters around the Senkaku Islands [September 2010]

• China's announcement of the Establishment of “Air Defense Identification Zone

(ADIZ) in the East China Sea” [November 2013]

• Chinese military jet fighters flew excessively close to aircrafts of the JMSDF and

the JASDF over the high seas [May and June 2014]

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Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ②

 Since the Japan-China summit meeting in November 2014, Chinese government vessels have been entering the contiguous zone every two days and the territorial sea three times a month (in average)

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Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ③

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The status of China’s unilateral development of natural resources in the East China Sea（Examples of the installation of jackets and maritime platforms by China）

2nd structure: observed in July 2013 4th structure: observed in April 2014 8th structure: observed in August 2014 (left) 7th structure: observed in June 2014 (right) 10th structure: observed in June 2014 11th structure: observed in May 2015 12th structure: observed in June 2015

Regional Affairs 3 : East China Sea ④

• 16 structures on the Chinese side of the median line between

Japan and China.

• The Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and the continental shelf

in the East China Sea have not yet been delimited.

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 China’s unilateral development should be immediately ceased.  Negotiations on the implementation of the ''June 2008 Agreement*” should be resumed ASAP.

*Japan and China agreed to cooperate on the development of natural resources in the East China Sea Japan-China median line

Area where China’s structures were observed

Regional Affairs 4 : Vicinity of Japan

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Example Flight Patterns of Russian/Chinese Aircraft to Which Scrambles Responded Changes in the Number of Scrambles against Russian Aircraft

:Route of Chinese Aircraft :Route of Russian Aircraft

Number of Scrambles since the Period of the Cold War and Its Breakdown

Regional Affairs 4

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“Japan maintains its position that the sovereignty and territorial integrity shall be respected and that any attempt to change the status quo by force or coercion cannot be tolerated. ”

(Statement by the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan at an International Symposium, January 21, 2015)

Japan’s Security Policy

• No nation can maintain its own peace and

security alone.

 Coordination with allies and partners  UN collective security measures  PKO

• Need to further strengthen the Japan-US

alliance

Significance

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Japan’s Security Policy Japan, as a “Proactive Contributor to Peace”, contributes even more actively in securing peace, stability and prosperity of the region and the international community. →Japan’s peaceful orientation will never sway.

“Proactive Contribution to Peace” based on the principle of international cooperation

Prime Minister Abe speaking at the UN General Assembly (Sep 2013)

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Japan’s Legislation for Peace and Security

The legislation enables … (1) seamless responses to any situations to secure the lives/peaceful livelihood of the Japanese. (2) contribution to the peace/stability of the international community = “Proactive Contribution to Peace”

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No changes in Japan’s basic posture and orientation for the past 70 years, including a peace-loving nation. Enhance the deterrence provided by the Japan-U.S. Alliance. Deepen trust and cooperative relations with other partners.

* Japan-U.S. defense cooperation will be pursued in accordance with

the new bilateral defense Guidelines, revised on April 27, 2015.

Japan’s Legislation for Peace and Security For example, (1) Japan can participate in a wider range of U.N. PKOs and other internationally coordinated efforts (wider activities possible, including the use of weapons for the defense of mandate.). (2) The SDF can provide logistics support in a situation that has an important influence on Japan’s peace and security or threatens international peace and security. (3) The exercise of the right of collective self-defense is permitted, provided the “Three New Conditions” are met.

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Use of Weapons Associated with International Peace Cooperation Activities

PKO units etc.

• f other

countries PKO personnel of Japan Armed guerillas etc. ①Attack ②Coming to the aid

Logistics Support

• Supply
• Transportation
• Medical Services

etc. Units of

• ther countries

※except for logistics support in

“the scene where combat activities are actually being conducted.”

Three New Conditions for “Use of Force” as Measures for Self-Defense

(1)when an armed attack against Japan occurs [the case of individual self-defense] or when an armed attack against a foreign country that is in a close relationship with Japan occurs and as a result threatens Japan’s survival and poses a clear danger to fundamentally overturn people’s right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness [the case of collective self-defense], (2)when there is no other appropriate means available to repel the attack and ensure Japan’s survival and protect its people, (3)use of force limited to the minimum extent necessary, should be interpreted to be permitted under the Constitution as measures for self-defense

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Is Criticism against Japan’s security policy well-founded? 1 “Japan will never become a country that would wage war again.” “The course Japan has taken as a peace-loving nation will remain unchanged.”

(Press Conference by Prime Minister Abe, July 1, 2014)

“Incident, aggression, war -- we shall never again resort to any form

• f the threat or use of force as a

means of settling international disputes.”

(Statement by Prime Minister Abe, August 14, 2015) Criticism 1

“Japan will become a militarist nation and a threat to the region.”

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“ If there were a war that involved your country, would you be willing to fight for your country? ”

Source: WIN/Gallup International （September 2014– December 2014） China Russia US ROK France UK

Germany Japan 71%

11%

18% 42% 29% 27% 29%

Australia 22

Japan has been briefing its security policy to relevant countries including neighboring countries with transparency.

Criticism2

“Japan’s Security Policy is not supported by Asian countries.”

Not only Asian but also Asia-Pacific and European countries welcomed and/or expressed support to the policy of “Proactive Contribution to Peace” based on the principle of international cooperation

Is Criticism against Japan’s security policy well-founded? 2

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Example of the countries which expressed welcome/support to the policy of “Proactive Contribution to Peace”

Criticism 2 “Japan’s Security Policy is not supported by Asian countries.”

Is Criticism against Japan’s security policy well-founded? 2

• Asia-Pacific: Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Maldives,

Mongolia, Myanmar, NZ, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam, ASEAN

• Americas: Brazil, Canada, Chili, Colombia, Mexico, US
• Europe: Croatia, Cyprus, France, Germany, Georgia, Italy, Luxembourg, UK, EU
• Middle East/Africa : Egypt, Jordan, Kenya, Liberia, Niger, Qatar, Uganda etc.

(as of Sep 2015)

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Criticism 3

“Democratic process on the Legislation is not enough and it is still very controversial ” No change in the basic logic of the constitutional interpretation. Unprecedentedly transparent procedure to make the Legislation ① Over 7 years of discussion by the Expert Panel (2 reports) before the Cabinet Decision on Jul 1st 2014. ② Active and thorough debate in the Diet (4-month intense deliberation (more than 200 hours’ deliberation in total at Lower/Upper House of the Diet) )

“The Legislation for Peace and Security” was approved on Sep 19th. Is Criticism against Japan’s security policy well-founded? 3

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Thank you for your attention!