Past Present, and Future Jim Handy Tutorial: Fast Storage for Big - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS Flash’s Role in Big Data, Past Present, and Future

Jim Handy

Tutorial: Fast Storage for Big Data Hot Chips Conference August 25, 2013 Memorial Auditorium Stanford University

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Semiconductor Market Research

• Market consulting/research firm

– Market analysis, strategies, white papers

• Highly-respected lead analysts

– Jim Handy: Memories & SSDs – Lane Mason: Memory chips – Tom Starnes: Processors

• Industry experience & 25+ years in field
• Reports, Competitive Analysis, Consulting

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Haven’t We Seen You Before?

• HotChips 2010: The Inevitable Rise
• f NVM in Computing

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Agenda

• The problem
• SSDs as a solution
• The role of future memories
• Tomorrow’s computing architecture

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com

Big Data

• Data is exploding. By 2020:

– Annual data production will be 35 ZB (CSC) – 50 billion “things” on the Internet (Cisco)

• Systems aren’t keeping pace

– CPUs moving along nicely – HDD/DRAM/Flash capacities still growing – Interfaces are not moving fast enough

• Result: Break the system into smaller

chunks

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The DRAM/HDD Speed Gap

1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07

1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06

Price per Gigabyte Bandwidth (MB/s) From: Solid State Drives in the Enterprise 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106

Result: Speed gap is widening Semiconductor memories becoming faster and cheaper Disks becoming cheaper, but no faster

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“Sharding”

• Big Data? Subdivide the problem!

Sharded System Multiple Servers

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Agenda

• The problem
• SSDs as a solution
• The role of future memories
• Tomorrow’s computing architecture

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Add Flash, Cut Server Count

Sharded System Multiple Servers Single Server with SSD

SSD SSD

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Other Flash Benefits

• Less power & cooling
• Improved reliability

– The fewer things there are, the fewer will fail

• Floor space reduction
• Lower licensing fees
• Faster error recovery

– RAID rebuilds – Backup restore – Snapshots

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com

Agenda

• The problem
• SSDs as a solution
• The role of future memories
• Tomorrow’s computing architecture

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com

How to Maintain this Inertia?

$1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 1 Q 1 Q 1 1 Q 2 1 Q 3 1 Q 4 1 Q 5 1 Q 6 1 Q 7 1 Q 8 1 Q 9 1 Q 1 1 Q 1 1 1 Q 1 2 Average Price per Gigabyte

DRAM From: Hybrid Drives: How, Why, & When?

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NAND’s Scaling Limit

• NAND will reach a limit

– Too few electrons per gate – Needs constant shrinks for cost reductions – 4-bit/cell hard to make

• This may be the maximum possible
• Other technologies will scale past NAND

– PCM, MRAM, RRAM, FRAM….

• Not yet clear which will win

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An NVM Timeline

• 2013: 1Xnm planar cell

– Requires Hi-k gate oxide

• 2015: 1Ynm planar cell

– May be the last planar cell

• 2017: 3D NAND in volume
• 2019: 3D – “The Next Generation”
• 2021: Final (?) 3D generation
• 2023: NAND yields to new technology

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How Alternatives Will Emerge

1 10 100 180nm 65nm 23nm 8nm Process Node Relative Cost per Bit Flash New Tech

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New Memories are Better

NAND

• Serial read
• Erase before write
• Block erase/page write
• Slow write
• Inherent bit errors
• Wear

New Memory

• Random read
• Overwrite
• Byte write
• Fast write
• Lower error rates
• Low/no wear

Opens pathway to “Storage Class Memory”

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Impact of New Memories

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Agenda

• The problem
• SSDs as a solution
• The role of future memories
• Tomorrow’s computing architecture

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com

NVM Won’t Cross HDD $/GB

$0.01 $0.10 $1.00 $10.00 $100.00 $1,000.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Price per Gigabyte

HDD Pricing Courtesy of PriceG2 20X the Price!

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An Evolving Computing Framework

CPU DRAM HDD CPU DRAM HDD CPU DRAM HDD SSD NVM Yesterday Today Tomorrow

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NAND Fits in Computers Today

1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07

1.E-01 1.E+00 1.E+01 1.E+02 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06

Price per Gigabyte Bandwidth (MB/s) From: Solid State Drives in the Enterprise 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS – www.OBJECTIVE-ANALYSIS.com

Flash as Memory

Hard Way

• It’s nonvolatile

– Write new code – Create new topologies

• Worry about

coherency

• Everything is new

Easy Way

• It’s cheaper than

DRAM

– It’s faster than HDD

• Who cares about

volatility?

• Handle coherency like

you do with DRAM

– Use existing code

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Flash More Economical than DRAM

From: How PC NAND Will Undermine DRAM

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Enterprise SSD Forecast

1 2 3 4 Millions of Units 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $3.5 Billion in 2016 59% Unit CAGR 43% Revenue CAGR From: Solid State Drives in the Enterprise

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Summary

• Flash belongs in all computers today

– So does HDD

• Flash vs. DRAM, not flash vs. HDD
• New NVMs will require new computing

architectures

– “Flash as memory” can be used today

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

Thank You!

Jim Handy