No More Excuses Roland G. Fryer, Jr. Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics Harvard University EdLabs NBER
Overview The Achievement Gap Among cities that participate in NAEP, the magnitude of racial differences in educational achievement is startling. Percent Proficient, 8 th Grade Math, NAEP 2011 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 white 20 10 black 0 Hispanic Percent Proficient, 8th Grade Reading, NAEP 2011 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 white 20 black 10 0 Hispanic CONFIDENTIAL
Overview Education and Later-Life Outcomes Accounting for educational achievement drastically reduces racial and socioeconomic inequality across a wide range of important life outcomes. Black-White Differences in Economic Outcomes (NLSY79) Before and After Controlling for 8th Grade Test Scores 300% 283% 250% 250% 234% 190% 200% 141% 137% 150% 114% 90% 100% 87% 87% 76% 42% 50% 33% 28% 0.6% 0% -27% -50% Wages Unemployment Have Savings Less than 10K in Negative Net Do not own home Any College Public Assistance savings Worth Raw B/W Gap After controlling for AFQT CONFIDENTIAL 3
Basic Facts • Test Score Gap Does Not Exist at 9 months old • The correlation between 9 month old scores and 12 year old scores is 0.3 • Black kids lose ground starting at age 2 CONFIDENTIAL
Basic Facts • Black kids enter kindergarten 0.64 SD (or 8 months) behind their white peers • The gap can be accounted for by 13 simple variables that proxy for Pre-K home environment • The gap grows 0.1 SD per year from Kindergarten through eighth grade • We don ’ t really know why The Evolution of the Racial Achievement Gap through 8th grade 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 9 months Pre-K Kindergarten 1st grade 3rd Grade 5th Grade 8th grade Months behind in math Months behind in reading CONFIDENTIAL
Possible Explanations We tested dozens of hypotheses, including: • Poor parenting • Racist Teachers • Summer Setback • Flawed Standardized Tests • School Quality How parents respond to Lost ground from Fall Kindergarten to Spring 1st grade, before and after accounting for parenting practices, misbehavior, by race ECLSK 0.2 75% 80% 0.15 70% 0.103 0.097 60% 0.093 0.09 49% 0.1 48% 45% 50% 41% 40% 0.05 White 30% 17% Lost Ground 16% 0 20% Black 9% Reading Reading, Math Math, 10% Hispanic accounting for accounting for 0% parenting parenting Spank child Give child a "time-out" Asian CONFIDENTIAL
Conventional Wisdom Seems Ineffective Percentage of Teachers with a Total Expenditure Per Pupil (2008-09 $)) Master's Degree or Higher $12,11 $11,438 6 $12,000 $10,508 100% $10,000 $8,949 $8,790 80% $7,347 $8,000 60% $6,268 $6,049 $6,000 $5,243 40% 61.8% 56.8% 53.1% $4,000 49.6% 20% 27.5% 23.5% $2,000 0% 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006 $0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Student to Teacher Ratio Reading and Math Achievement of 9, 13, and 17 year-olds, 24:1 325 1971-2008 22.3 :1 300 9 year- 22:1 olds 20.4 :1 275 13 year- 20:1 olds 18.7 :1 250 17 year- 17.9 :1 olds 18:1 17.2 :1 17.3 :1 225 16.0 :1 15.6 :1 200 16:1 175 1971 1975 1980 1984 1988 1990 1994 1996 1999 2004 2008 14:1 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CONFIDENTIAL
Financial Incentives Distributed a total of $10 million to kids in 5 cities. A. Input Experiments • Dallas • Houston • Washington DC B. Output Experiments • New York City • Chicago • Teacher Incentives CONFIDENTIAL
Financial Incentives CONFIDENTIAL
The Achievement Gap Past Interventions vs. the Racial Achievement Gap 1 Annual Treatment Effect on Student Achievement (in SD 0.8 0.6 0.4 units) 0.2 0 -0.2 CONFIDENTIAL
Results From High-Performing Charters Harlem Children’s Zone CONFIDENTIAL
Results From Charter Schools 0.6 0.5 B. Studies of High-Performing Schools 0.4 0.3 Math A. Broad Surveys 0.2 Reading 0.1 0 -0.1 Notes: Solid bars represent experimental estimates. Striped bars represent quasi-experimental estimates. *Oversubscribed Schools CONFIDENTIAL only.
Finding the Vaccine Traditional vs. Non-Traditional School Inputs and School Effectiveness 1.00 0.93 0.80 0.79 0.75 0.70 0.75 0.59 Months of Schooling 0.50 vs. 0.25 0.01 0.00 -0.25 -0.31 -0.40 -0.41 -0.50 -0.45 Average Correlation with Reading and Math Effectiveness (in months of schooling) CONFIDENTIAL
An Experiment in Houston: The Five Tenets The key goal is to translate charter schools’ successful policies into common principles and then transplant them into traditional public schools. To this end, EdLabs initiated a multi-year study of NYC charters that determined that the following five policies and practices have the greatest correlation with student achievement: More Time in School • Extended day, week, and school years are all integral components of successful school models. In the case of Harlem Children’s Zone’s Promise Academy, students have nearly doubled the amount of time on task compared to students in NYC public schools. Small Group Tutoring • In top performing schools, classroom instruction is supplemented by individualized tutoring, both after school and during the regular school day. Human Capital Management • Successful charters reward teachers for performance and hold them accountable if they are not adding value. Data Driven Instruction and Student Performance Management • In the top charter schools, students are assessed frequently, and then, in small groups, re-taught the skills they have not yet mastered. Culture and Expectations • In successful schools, students buy into the school’s mission and into the importance of their education in improving their lives. CONFIDENTIAL
Results In Math, we see positive and statistically significant results in elementary and secondary schools. The gains in grades that received high-dosage tutoring were dramatic. The reading results are mixed. Elementary schools have small positive and statistically significant results. Secondary school results are insignificant. Apollo Treatment Effects 0.2 0.15 0.1 Math Reading 0.05 0 Elementary School Secondary School -0.05 CONFIDENTIAL
Results In Context Pooling all grades together, the results are similar to those achieved by the Harlem Children’s Zone Promise Academy Middle Skill and KIPP – two of the country’s most recognized charter operators. 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 Math Reading 0.1 0.05 0 Average NYC Harlem Children's Average KIPP Apollo Apollo Middle Charter Zone (MS) (MS) Elementary School School -0.05 CONFIDENTIAL
Cost-Benefit Analysis Using an estimate of the correlation between test scores and future earnings, we can calculate a rough rate of return for the first year of the Apollo experiment and compare it to other popular education interventions. Initiative Cost/Student IRR Apollo 20 Elementary $355 26.70% Apollo 20 Secondary $1,837 13.42 % “No Excuses” Charter School $2,496 18.50 % Early Childhood Education $8,879 7.60 % Reduced Class Size $3,501 6.20 % CONFIDENTIAL
Long-Term HCZ Effects Woodcock Johnson College-Going 0.3 25 0.25 20 0.2 15 0.15 10 0.1 5 0.05 0 0 Enrolled in College Enrolled in 4-year College Math Reading Health Outcomes Social Outcomes (Odds Ratios) 0.12 6 0.1 5 0.08 4 0.06 0.04 3 0.02 2 0 Mental Health Physical Health Index Nutrition Index 1 -0.02 -0.04 0 Pregnancy (Girls) Incarceration (Boys) -0.06 18 CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
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