Outline Outline 1. Introduction 2. Strategies and plans 2. - - PDF document

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

Biofuel initiatives in Japan: Strategies, policies, and future potential future potential

Naoko Matsumoto Daisuke Sano Mark Elder Mark Elder

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

International Workshop on Sustainable Energy Crops and Biofuels Development in China and Asia

OCTOBER 15TH-16TH, 2009 , BEIJING, CHINA

Outline Outline

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Strategies and plans
• 2. Strategies and plans
• 3. Policies
• 4. Production and markets

5 Potential to achieve objectives

• 5. Potential to achieve objectives
• 6. Conclusion

1 Introduction 1.Introduction

• Purpose of the paper:

– Review Japan’s national strategies, plans and p g , p policies related to biofuels – Discuss their potential to reach their objectives Discuss their potential to reach their objectives

• GHG reduction
• Energy security
• Energy security
• Rural development
• Recycle based society
• Recycle‐based society

2 Strategies and plans

• 2. Strategies and plans

Multiple objectives “Biomass Nippon Strategy” Emphasised transport biofuels as a major component Climate change “Kyoto Protocol Energy “New National Energy Domestic production “Large Scale Target Achievement Plan” gy Strategy” Dependency on oil to 80% (transport) by 2030 Large Scale Expansion of Domestic Biofuel Production” 500,000 kl (oil eq.) B 2010 80% (transport) by 2030 “Next-generation Vehicle and Fuel Production 50,000 kl by 2011 6 million kl by By 2010 Initiative” 6 million kl by 2030

• 3. Policies

R&D / Pilot projects

• Feedstock production

(both crops and wastes)

• E10 on road tests
• E10 on-road tests

Blending rates Economic

• Gasoline tax

M i ili

Blending rates incentives

• Gasoline tax

exemption

• Tax benefits

Maximum ceiling (for safety and vehicle and financial assistance T iff ti vehicle performance)

• Ethanol: 3vol%
• Tariff exemption
• Biodiesel: 5%

Major fuel ethanol pilot projects

Area Related ministry Feedstocks

Demonstration

Shimizu Town, Hokkaido MAFF sugar beets, flour, etc. Tokachi Area Hokkaido MOE MAFF METI substandard E3 Tokachi Area, Hokkaido MOE, MAFF, METI substandard flour, corn, etc. E3 Tomakomai, Hokkaido MAFF rice etc. Shinjo City, Yamagata MAFF sorghum E3 Niigata City, Niigata MAFF rice and E3 E3 Kanto Region METI ETBE Kanto Region METI ETBE Sakai City, Osaka MOE construction waste timbers E3 Maniwa City, Okayama METI lumber wastes E3 Kitakyushu City, Fukuoka METI, MOE food wastes Ie Island Okinawa MOE MAFF METI high biomass E3 Ie Island, Okinawa MOE, MAFF, METI, Cabinet Office high biomass amount molasses E3 Mi k ji I l d Oki METI MOE MAFF l E3 Miyakojima Island, Okinawa METI, MOE, MAFF, MLIT, etc. molasses E3

4 P d i d k

• 4. Production and markets

Bioethanol Biodiesel Production: 30kl/year as of 2007 d kl h Production: 5000kl/year as of 2007 increased to 30,000 kl this yr （from various feedstocks including inedible rice sub‐ Mainly initiated by local governments and NGOs including inedible rice, sub‐ standard flour, molasses, and wastes) governments and NGOs based on waste cooking oil. Sales: in both E3 and ETBE

Source: Kyoto City HP

5 Potential to achieve objectives

• 5. Potential to achieve objectives
• 1. Can biofuels make a significant

contribution to reducing Japan’s GHG g p emissions? 2 Can biofuels improve Japan’s energy

• 2. Can biofuels improve Japan s energy

security? 3 Can biofuels contribute to rural

• 3. Can biofuels contribute to rural

development in Japan?

• 4. Can biofuels constibute to the realisation of

a recycle‐based society in Japan?

5.1. Can biofuels make a significant contribution to GHG emission reduction?

Short-run L h i f i i Long-run J ’ T t

• Lower hanging fruit - require

not much additional infrastructure Japan’s Target: 60-80% reduction by 2050 infrastructure

• Estimate:

Role of biofuels depends on the development of: 10% of the KP reduction goal

• f transport sector

second generation or cellulosic biofuels (1.3 /11-14million t)

Caveat: above calculation only based

“next-generation vehicles”

y

• n emissions from running on the road

5.2. Can biofuels improve Japan’s energy security?

Domestic biofuel Need to import

(0.03%) 95 2010

production Oil dependency 470,000 kl oil equivalent to meet Kyoto

(3.7%) 97 2030a (BAU)

Achievement Plan

(4.2%) 86 2030b (modest effort scenario)

(Source: PAJ)

(5.2%) 69 2030c (maximum effort scenario)

( )

20 40 60 80 100 120 ( ) (kl in oil equivalent) ( )

Forecast of total energy consumption in transport sector

(based on METI’s outlook and Biomass Nippon Strategy Promotion Council’s estimate)

5.3. Can biofuels contribute to l d l t i J ? (1) rural development in Japan? (1)

Production and energy potential of domestic biofuels in 2030

Feedstock Production potential (thousand Production potential (thousand Energy potential ( kilolitres in ethanol) ( kilolitres in oil equivalent) p (PJ)* 1 S / t h 50 30 1 2

• 1. Sugar/starch

50 30 1.2

• 2. Plant biomass

1,800 ‐2,000 1,100‐1,200 43.0‐47.8

• 3. Energy crops

2,000 ‐ 2,200 1,200 – 1,300 47.8‐52.6

• 4. Woody biomass

2,000 – 2,200 1,200 – 1,300 47.8‐52.6

• 5. Biodiesel fuel etc.

100 – 200 60 – 120 2.4‐4.8 Total

• Approx. 6,000
• Approx. 3,600 Approx. 143.4

(Source: Biomass Nippon Strategy Promotion Council 2007)

5.3. Can biofuels contribute to l d l t i J ? (2)

Potential energy crops

rural development in Japan? (2)

Challenges: Potential energy crops Erianthus spp. Challenges:

• Still not enough data to

d t i f ibilit Miscanthus nepiergrass determine feasibility

• Impacts to

sorghum ecosystems/GHGs

• Low food self‐

Opportunity: “abandoned cultivated lands” sufficiency ratio

• Agreement of local

cultivated lands 386,000 ha (9.7% of total lti t d l d) Agreement of local comunities

• High production cost

cultivated land)

• High production cost

5.4. Can biofuels constibute to the realisation of a recycle‐based society? (1) realisation of a recycle based society? (1)

Endowment Utilisation

Endowment potential of domestic unutilised biomass

Endowment

(Generated amount) (million / )

Intensity

(Place of generation)

Rate of utilisation Utilisation potential

(million tonnes /

Energy potential

(PJ/year :HHV) tonnes / year) year) :HHV)

Plant Rice straw, rice husk, 14 Agricultura l land, rice 30% 9.8 147 Plant wheat straw 14 processing facility 30% (70%) 147 Woody Logging 3 4 Forest land 2% 3.3 50 Woody gg g residue 3.4 Forest land 2% (98%) 50 Woody Saw mill residue 4.3 Factory 95% 0.2 (5%) 3 ( ) Woody Constructio n waste timbers 4.7 Factory 70% 1.4 (30%) 21 Others Waste paper 30.63 Urban area 91% 2.79 (9%) 42

(Source: Biofuel Technology Innovation Conference 2008)

5.4. Can biofuels constibute to the realisation of a recycle‐based society? (2) realisation of a recycle based society? (2)

Challenges

1 Collection and transport

• 1. Collection and transport

2. Advanced ethanol production technologies technologies

• 3. Avoinding excessive exploitation from

farmland farmland

• 4. Environmental impact from disposal of

residues from cellulosic material residues from cellulosic material processing

6 Conclusion (1)

Strategies and Plans / l d l d b d ff h

• 6. Conclusion (1)
• Strategies/plans developed by different ministries with

various objectives and targets

• However, there are some interlinkages and common

However, there are some interlinkages and common directions – Cellulosic biofuels without competition with food C ti d R&D – Continued R&D Promotion policies, production, and sales

• Still in early stages

Still in early stages

• Rate of introduction slower and more cautions

– No major large scale feedstock – Strict regulation on blending rates – Greater attention to safety and quality concerns

• 6. Conclusion (2)

future roles of biofuels in Japan

Climate change short term: not large but a certain contribution as a short term: not large, but a certain contribution as a lower hanging fruit long term: depends not only on the technological breakthroughs relating to second generation biofuels but breakthroughs relating to second generation biofuels but also on related advances in vehicle technology Energy constrained by the potential scale of domestic production and availability of imports Rural economies and a recycle based society Rural economies and a recycle‐based society biofuels could play a more significant role, contingent on the future development of technologies and socio‐ f economic infrastructure

Thank you very much.

The research was conducted as a part of ‘‘Biofuel use strategies for sustainable development’’ supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (Hc‐082) of the Ministry of the Environment Japan (Hc‐082) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.