Board of Directors James Putnam, Chair Challenges and David Alukonis John Herney Eric Herr Opportunities Dianne Mercier Catherine A. Provencher Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Donna Sytek “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality Brian F. Walsh information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Economic Cycles Percent Change in Population in NH from Prior Period 1790 Census to 2010 Census 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%
Tailwinds to Headwinds to ... 3
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Astounding Growth 700,000 1.3 million 2013 1968 5
Projections: Limited Growth Ten Year Percent Change in New Hampshire Population by Decade End Actual Forecast 24.8% 21.5% 20.5% 13.8% 11.4% 8.5% 6.5% 3.8% 3.3% 1.1% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Virtually all our public policy is based on a picture of ourselves and trends that are not really true any longer 7
Everything Varies by Age So …. Everything will be Impacted by Aging 8
The Ripple Effect 9
• While the overall state population increased, the number of school-aged children fell: a loss of more than 22,000 students, or a 7 percent decline since 2000. • As this map shows, that drop was spread across the state, with a few towns gaining in school-age population. • More broadly, policymakers will have to consider what steps to take to build the education system in a state where the student population is declining. 10
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Workforce Development? • Educate our own better …. ? • Make NH a place in which a new generation of diverse, urban dwelling, millennials …. ? • Narrow our economic focus to specific geography or industry? 13
Rural …. Growth in NH's Rural Northern Counties 160,000 140,000 Merrimack 120,000 100,000 Grafton 80,000 Belknap 60,000 Carroll 40,000 Coos 20,000 0 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 BELKNAP CARROLL COOS GRAFTON Series7
Facilitating Rural Transitions - Index of Well-Being 15
Urban Growth in NH's Urban Southern Counties 450,000 400,000 350,000 Hillsborough 300,000 250,000 Rockingham 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 HILLSBOROUGH ROCKINGHAM
Building on Urban Assets - Nashua- Manchester Corridor 17 17
The Ecology of Successful Economy And then … Brad Feld There’s this … • A Strong Pool of Tech Founders • Local Capital • Human Capital • Killer Events • Financial Capital • Access to Great Universities • Economic Creativity • Motivated ‘Champions’ • Local Press, Organizational Tools • Business Base • Alumni Outreach • Costs of Business • Wins • Infrastructure • Recycled Capital • Second-Time Entrepreneurs • Quality of Life • Attractive to Engineers • Tent-pole local tech companies 18
What to Do? • What is a Plan NH • What is an Innovation COMMUNITY DESIGN District? Geographic CHARRETTE? A areas where leading-edge Community Design anchor institutions and companies cluster and Charrette brings together connect with start-ups, a team business incubators and of volunteer members of accelerators. 1 They are also Plan NH with community physically compact, transit- leaders, citizens, accessible, and technically- business owners and wired and offer mixed-use others related to a housing, office, and retail. particular project.
Building on strengths, taking on weaknesses • Natural and Cultural Amenities • What is NH’s Brand ? • Regionalism • Vibrant Cities • Maintenance of a strong human capital infrastructure • Economic Development Community Development
New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Board of Directors James Putnam, Chair David Alukonis Want to learn more? John Herney Eric Herr • Online: nhpolicy.org Dianne Mercier Catherine A. Provencher • Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney • Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair • Our blog: policyblognh.org Emeritus Directors Emeritus • (603) 226 -2500 William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
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