Opportunities and Pathways to a Green Future for All (based on a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Opportunities and Pathways to a Green Future for All (based on a Chinese Academy of Sciences report of the same title) Choon Fong Shih University Professor and Advisor National University of Singapore University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Opportunities and Pathways to a Green Future for All
(based on a Chinese Academy of Sciences report of the same title)
Choon Fong Shih
University Professor and Advisor National University of Singapore University of Chinese Academy of Sciences “Opportunities and Challenges for Methanol as a Global Liquid Energy Carrier” Stanford University, July 31st – August 1st 2017
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Fossilized Sunshine Liquid Sunshine
Image credit: Foreign Policy, the Global Magazine of News and Ideas, May 31st 2017
‐ 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
GigaTonnes CO2/year
OECD Non‐OECD Business as Usual Liquid Sunshine 3
Business as Usual or Green Future? Common man solution for our common destiny
Sources: Data from ‘BP Statistical Review 2016’ for data up to 2015.
Today
CO2 emissions abatement by OECD countries alone make little difference
Optimistic target based on abating about 2.5 trillion tons of CO2 over the next 80 years, vis‐à‐vis Business as Usual.
Non‐OECD
OECD
2050 2100
Annual CO2 Emissions from Energy Use
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95GT/year by 2100 95GT/year by 2100
CO2 emissions abatement by Non‐OECD countries is key to our Green Future CO2 emissions abatement by Non‐OECD countries is key to our Green Future
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Pathways to Sustainable Green Future
Fossilized Sunshine Fossil Methanol Hybrid Systems Clean Methanol Liquid Sunshine Green Methanol Today
Hybrid Systems First Deployment Mass Deployment Liquid Sunshine First Deployment Mass Deployment
2020 2050 2070
+ +
H2
‐ ‐
2040
1G – 2G 3G – 4G 5G & beyond
“Inexhaustible Sunshine” “Inexhaustible Sunshine”
Environment degradation Depleting fossil fuels
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1720 1870 2020 2200
Coal Coal Wood Wood Oil Oil Renewables Renewables
150 more years 100 more years
World Pop. 0.6 B 1.3 B 7.6 B
Three Existential Threats
??
“Fossilized Sunshine” “Fossilized Sunshine” 2050
>9 B
Energy is Humankind’s Biggest Challenge!
Three Existential Threats
Climate change
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44.1 44.1
PM2.5 μg/m3
15.2 15.2
PM2.5 μg/m3
Local Environment Degradation
OECD Countries Non‐OECD Countries
Rising Pollution & Population Plummeting Resources
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Saudi Arabia
Sunshine is Vast Inexhaustible Resource
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Challenge: Turning Sunshine into an energy commodity distributable worldwide
1 hour of Sunshine > 1 year of global energy needs 1 hour of Sunshine > 1 year of global energy needs
Common Man Solution for Our Common Destiny
Environmental Impact?
What can we learn from nature?
Transport & Distribute?
Convert & Store?
Harvest Sunshine?
What are the ways to …
The WORLD’s fossil fuels are depleting fast …
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Designing Energy Carrier & System Inspired by Nature
Ecologically Balanced Cycle
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Harvest Conversion & Storage Distribution Utilization
Recycle
stable chemical form liquid‐ based systems
*CO2 and H2O are nature’s energy transport agents that bind and store the sun’s energy in
chemical form; they are recycled to the environment when the chemical energy is utilized
Energy Pathway Plentiful Sunshine CO2 H2O CO2 H2O
Energy Transporter CO2 + H2O*
example
Fossil Fuel-based Energy System
Extracting fossil fuels and dumping CO2 and pollutants into atmosphere
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Conversion & Storage Distribution Utilization Depleting Fossil Fuel Reservoir Atmospheric Dump CO2 & Pollutants Organic & Inorganic Matter Fossil Fuels
From the bowels of the Earth
Battery-based Energy System
Extracting lithium, etc., and dumping battery waste into landfills
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Conversion & Storage Distribution Utilization Depleting Mineral Mines Battery Factory Harvest Battery Dump
Material Pathway
Plentiful Sunshine
Energy Transporter Batteries
From the bowels of the Earth To the land
Earth
Good Bad Bad/Poor
Comparing Carriers of Green Energy
Liquids are Optimal Medium to Store and Transport Energy
* Long distance transportation/shipping > 5,000km ^ Includes pollution from production, use, and disposal
† Electricity must be used as it is generated or converted immediately into storable forms,
e.g. electrochemical energy stored by batteries
Observations
storing and transporting energy
into LNG for shipping globally
energy‐dense medium for storing electricity and hydrogen at ambient conditions Energy Physical State Solid Liquid Gaseous Electro‐ chemical† Energy Carrier Biomass Alcohols Hydrogen Battery/ Electricity Energy Density Storage Costs Transport Costs* Environmental Impact^
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Reservoirs Enable Man to Control and Manage Nature’s Intermittent Resources
Rain Sunshine & Wind Beyond humankind’s control Once stored in reservoirs, resource can be distributed and drawn on demand within the control of humankind
Catchment
Rainwater Reservoir Energy Reservoir
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Energy Carriers – Sweet-Spot
Relative Energy Density by Volume Relative Energy Density by Weight
Sw eet-Spot
Uncompressed Gas* Highly Compressed Gas*
Batteries Liquid† Solid
Directional target of preferred energy carriers
*Excluding weight
†Liquids occupy the energy density sweet spot; they are also stable, easy to store, transport, distribute.
Methanol has, on a volume basis, 40% more H2 than liquid hydrogen at ‐253oC, and 140% more H2 than compressed hydrogen at 700 bars.
high energy density by weight & volume Li‐ion Redox flow
Battery, Hydrogen & Alcohol Energy Reservoirs
Reservoir size for 3 hours storage of global energy needs in 2050 5.6x
Height of Mt. Everest
Li‐ion Batteries Compressed Hydrogen at 700 bars Compressed Hydrogen at 200 bars Alcohol Fuels
How Large?
Stacked on top
football field
How Heavy?
Weight in thousands of Airbus A380s
Li‐ion Batteries Compressed Hydrogen at 700 bars Compressed Hydrogen at 200 bars Alcohol Fuels
~30x ~1.5x ~10x 60
Li‐ion batteries: 12 mil tonnes of Lithium (86% of world’s reserves) required upfront, 10‐15% add‐on per year; massive hazardous waste Compressed H2: Very small molecule and prone to leakage; large‐scale storage of compressed hydrogen could pose serious safety risks Alcohol fuels: Alcohol fuels such as methanol and ethanol have high energy density by weight and by volume 16
1.7x 3x 0.3x
Battery, Hydrogen and Methanol
Estimated cost of distribution infrastructure
Battery Hydrogen Methanol^
$10‐15 billion 300x 100x
Retrofit trucks, tanks and pumps CFRP Tanks for transport, storage Grid upgrades, new charging stations
* Estimated upfront infrastructure costs, assuming 200 cars per 1000 people, for China, in the next decade ^ Methanol is the simplest and easiest target of green liquid fuels
Distribution: Wholesale to End-Users
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Infrastructure Costs*
Still Waiting…
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Energy Carriers/Sources – Key Pollutants
Resource Structure and Constituents
CO2
Major Pollutants (NOX, SOX, PM)
Storage, Shipping, Distribution Coal
Complex mixture of organic and inorganic compounds, heavy
differing nitrogen & sulfur content.
100 Semi Global
Crude Oil
Complex mixture of compounds, consisting primarily of C5 to C70
greatly.
76 Global
Natural Gas
Predominantly CH4. Some C2H6 and
40 Regional
Methanol* (C1 Alcohol)
Simplest alcohol fuel, CH4O
45 Global
Hydrogen
Hydrogen is gaseous above ‐253OC. It is liquefied or pressurized to 700 bars for storage purposes.
Highly Restricted
*These data would also apply to ethanol, a C2 primary alcohol. Methanol and Ethanol
Fossilized Sunshine Inorganic Gas
100 100 100 34 69 70 93 100 60 NOX SOX PM NOX SOX PM NOX SOX PM NOX SOX PM NOX SOX PM 2 3
Estimated data based on (i) empirical results for power generation per unit output and (ii) emissions standards for boilers
Fossil-based Electricity and Oil
Shaped today’s world, but not much longer
Industrial Residential Commercial Lighting & Heating Appliances & Gadgets
Electricity & Oil together meet all energy needs
society
Materials & Chemicals Transportation
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Looming threats of fossil‐based energy: Environmental Impact, Depleting Resources
Clean at point of use Instant, on‐demand power Versatile with many applications High energy density Feedstock for materials Stable, storable and transportable
Regenerate Electricity Regenerate Electricity
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Light / AC Light / AC Appliances Appliances Mobile gadgets Mobile gadgets Transportation Transportation Materials Materials
Liquid storage
Machinery Machinery
instant multipurpose power & no emissions at point of use versatile, easy to store & ship with global reach
Grid storage Electricity Liquids
Synergistic Dual Energy System
Surplus Power Surplus Power
Green Electricity and Green Liquids
Can leverage existing extensive energy infrastructure
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Life Cycle Approach
Energy Extraction, Conversion & Distribution Energy Extraction, Conversion & Distribution Well‐to‐Tank Tank‐to‐Wheels
Vehicle Production Vehicle Production Disposal Disposal Point of Use (POU) Point of Use (POU) Cradle-to-Grave Before POU Before POU Well-to-Wheels
Utilization Utilization
Efficiency entails both POU and before POU
Energy and Material Pathways
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Battery Cars Are Clean “No Emissions”
Gasoline Cars Are Dirty
Pollutants mg/km CO2 g/km
390 300 310 135 80 135 210 245
Coal to BEV* LNG to Gas to BEV*
*BEV = Battery‐electric vehicle ^Battery disposal not included Production & Disposal Before Point
Emissions
Point of use
Vehicle Production and Disposal^ Vehicle Production and Disposal^ Before Point of Use Before Point of Use
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Batteries are also Costly
Breakeven economics and end-of-life recycling costs $470 $350 $290 $250 $125 $115 $55
Adapted from: Covert, Thomas, Michael Greenstone, and Christopher R. Knittel. “Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 30, no. 1 (February 2016): 117–138. Recycling assumption: Net cost of battery recycling assumed to be $150/kWh in 10 years
plus recycling cost
10‐kWh Tesla Powerwall Current cost
2020 Target cost of batteries $64
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Hydrogen Distribution is Very Costly
Conversion costs from gasoline/diesel refueling systems Hydrogen* USD 1.5 – 2 million Methanol†
(simplest alcohol fuel)
USD 25k
Hydrogen pump plus array of storage tanks for ~15 cars
† Includes retrofitting of nozzle, pump and storage tanks * New hydrogen storage equipment requires large amount of space
Storage at 700+ bars
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Applying 3E Criteria to current and alternative energy solutions
Optimally‐balanced Non‐optimal
Efficiency Economics Environment There is no perfect energy solution,
3E Assessment Across The Life Cycle
Light vehicles (comparing technologies)
Pollutants^ Emitted mg/km
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Gasoline ICEV Coal to BEV NG to BEV Methanol ICEV Methanol FCEV
Gasoline ICEV Conventional Gasoline Car Coal to BEV* Battery Electric Vehicle powered by Coal‐power NG to BEV* Natural gas (NG) imported as LNG to produce power for Battery Electric Vehicle Methanol ICEV Natural gas converted to Methanol, Combustion engine Methanol FCEV Methanol fuel cell electric vehicle CNG ICEV Compressed Natural Gas‐powered car Cost ₵/km Well‐to‐ wheel efficiency % CO2 Emitted g/km Vehicle Production & Disposal Well‐to‐ wheels
*Battery disposal not included ^Pollutants include SOX, NOX, VOCs and PM
17% 290 380 16.4 26% 390 310 24.8 28% 300 135 24.8 24% 160 80 14.5 29% 155 80 16.6
CNG ICEV
19% 180 80 17.1
2 1 3
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Methanol Fuel is Cost-Competitive
Resource cost Values in $/MMBtu Conversion cost G D
Crude Oil
$8.50 – 10.50b
Refining
$2.50 – 3.50 Shipping cost $0.30 Location‐specific distribution costa $2 – 4 End user cost $13 – 18c
Gasoline / Diesel a) Distribution costs can vary widely from country to country and locations within each country b) Corresponds approximately to crude oil price of $50 – 60 per barrel c) Before tax on gasoline / diesel. In the US, tax is around $3.50‐4.00/MMBtu
Source: Internal analysis, US data points from EIA website as at April 6, 2017
Natural Gas
$2.50 – 3.50
Liquefaction + Shipping + Regasification
$5 – 12
Piped to users
$5 – 8 $12 – 22
LNG
Natural Gas
$2.50 – 3.50
Methanol Production
$4 – 5 $0.50 $4 – 7 $11 – 16
Gasoline Diesel Natural Gas Methanol C1
Methanol
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Natural Gas
Gas‐Heated Reformer Gas‐Heated Reformer Auto‐ Thermal Reformer Auto‐ Thermal Reformer syngas
Methanol Synthesis Methanol Synthesis Methanol
heat Air Separation Air Separation Gas Compression Gas Compression
O2
Electricity Electricity syngas‐ NG mix
3G-Gas: Methanol Synthesis
Ultra-Low Emissions (ULE) – Natural Gas based
0.14 tons CO2
per ton methanol
Advanced reformer utilizes CO2 from combustion in the synthesis Efficient Economic Environment ‐friendly
C1
* Comparable CO2 emissions for 1G‐Coal and 2G‐Gas are 3.33 and 0.56 tons respectively
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34.0 Iran 32.3 Russia 24.5 Qatar 17.5
Turkmenistan 10.4
US 31.6 China 22.7 Argentina 20.0 Algeria 17.6 16.2 Canada
8.3 Saudi Arabia 6.1
UAE
5.6 Venezuela 6.9
5.2 5.1
Mozambique Nigeria
15.4 Mexico 17.5 Australia
11.0 South Africa 8.1
Brazil
5.8
4.7 Madagascar 4.5 4.7
Conventional Gas Shale Gas
209.0 TCM 1,334 Bboe * 214.5 TCM 1,368 Bboe * Shale Gas increases Global Gas Reserves Massively
Source: BP Statistical Review 2016, USGS, U.S. EIA, Australian ERA
* Bboe = billion barrels of oil equivalent
ULE production supported by geographically diverse and abundant natural gas supply
(Reserves as of 2015)
4.8
Countries with over 4.5 Trillion Cubic Meters
Harvest
5G Energy System Inspired by Nature
Conversion to green methanol Utilization Recycle
CO2 & H2O
Direct CO2 Reduction
High Selectivity Low P, Low T Catalyst
CO2 H2
H2 Generation CO2 Capture Membrane Separation RWGS Methanol Synthesis & Distillation
CH3OH
5G+ Artificial Photosynthesis Emulating Nature
Liquid Fuels
CO2 & H2O Catalytic Conversion
Distillation
Hybrid Approach Integrating Synthetic Biology
Methanol CH3OH has, on a volume basis, 40% more H2 than liquid hydrogen at ‐253OC, and 140% more H2 than compressed hydrogen at 700 bars.
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Methanol – Liquid Electricity & Liquid Hydrogen
Storing electricity & hydrogen as liquid at ambient conditions Methanol for storing and distributing electricity and hydrogen H2 Generation CO2 Capture Synthesis
Emissions Applications for pure CO2 Other Applications
Reformer
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heat & power petro‐ chemicals ground transport marine hydrogen applications
Liquid Hydrogen Clean Fuel Oil Liquid Electricity Clean Crude
Green Methanol
Methanol Applications
versatile & multi-purpose resource
Easy to store and distribute
Harnessing Sunshine
Inspired by Nature vs. Business as Usual
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Recap of slides 10‐12, and 3E criteria ‐ Efficiency, Economics, Environment
Plentiful Sunshine Land Dump Atmospheric Dump Buried in the ground Utilization Inspired by Nature Business as Usual 3E must be applied from start to end
CO2 H2O
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Liquid Sunshine Methanol Roadmap
Phase I Fossil Methanol Phase II Clean Methanol Phase III Green Methanol 1G‐Coal 2G‐Gas 3G‐Gas/ULE 3G‐Coal 4G‐Biomass 5G & Beyond Coal Gas Renewable Biomass 2020 2025 2030 2040
2050 2070
First* Deployment * Commissioning of first commercial viable production facility ^ Deployment meeting over 15% of total energy consumption Mass^ Deployment Nuclear Artificial Photosynthesis
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Liquid Sunshine Economy
Clean Reliable Fuel for the Common Man
Blue Sky Good Jobs Happy Healthy Families
Individuals Planet Societies
Energy Diversity Energy Security Economic Growth Prosperity Global Peace Stewardship
Earth Stop Climate Change
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collective wisdom from the early centuries to the present