Opportunities Analysis Advisory Services Update For the County of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Government Operations/ Courts Relocation Opportunities Analysis Advisory Services Update For the County of Albemarle Board of Supervisors October 11, 2017 Agenda 1 Introductory Remarks by County 2 Schedule & Process Update 3
October 11, 2017
Introductory Remarks by County
Schedule & Process Update
Quantitative Analysis
Qualitative Decision-Making Framework
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P3 Framework
Expectation of presentation / work session discussion for this topic:
schedule
making criteria and provide input and priority feedback setting the stage for future decision framework
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5 ✓ Confirmed BOS requirement that any
administration of Justice ✓ Directed Staff to pursue “Option 5” to bring level of analysis to Option 1 ✓ Directed staff to investigate options of Court/COB/both as opportunity to invest capital into urban development and revitalization to expand County's Commercial and Industry tax base ✓ Dec – June: Procured Development Services Advisor – Stantec Consulting Services ✓ July+ commenced work
October BOS
November BOS
December BOS
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Costs, fiscal impacts, economic benefits, etc
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Application of BOS criteria and priorities
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Decision and/or further direction by BOS
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Current Progress Point
Onboarding
Analysis
Analysis
Analysis
Study,
Analysis
Options
Findings
Direction to Proceed
Studies
Area Plan
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SEP OCT NOV DEC
Program Analysis for COB Concurrently with:
Option 5 Analysis
P3 Structuring & Financing Cost/Benefit Analysis
Current Progress Point
Present Findings
(Downtown Option) and Option 5 (Court and/or COB Relocation Option)
result of stimulus from Option 5
level Financial Analysis & Management System (FAMS) financial model
deficits for the status quo versus Options 1 and 5, taking into account fiscal impact of potential future development
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Deductions Capitalized Costs
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Sale or Lease Proceeds
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Development Costs Financing Assumptions Operating Proforma
Capital Costs Debt Service
Operating Costs
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Rate Adjustment ►
$0 $5 $10 $15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
End of Year Fund Balance
Current Plan Last Plan Reserve Target
$0 $1 $2 $3 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
Capital Improvements
Current Plan Last Plan
$0 $1 $2 $3 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
Capital Improvement Funding
Cash Long Term Short Term
$25 $35 $45 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
Cash In vs. Cash Out
Cash In Cash Out - Total Cash Out - Before CIP
$0 $5 $10 $15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
End of Year Fund Balance
Current Plan Last Plan Reserve Target
$0 $1 $2 $3 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
Capital Improvements
Current Plan Last Plan
$0 $1 $2 $3 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
Capital Improvement Funding
Cash Long Term Short Term
$25 $35 $45 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Millions
Cash In vs. Cash Out
Cash In Cash Out - Total Cash Out - Before CIP
Fund Balance Falls Below Reserve Target (black line) due to Negative Cash Flow Cash Out Exceeds Cash In Grey Bars = Baseline Scenario (status quo) Blue Bars = Active “What-if” Scenario 15
* Example shown for illustration purposes only
GENERAL FUND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY Entity Name
FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027 Rate Adjustment ► Reat Estate Assessment Rate 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 4.7157 Real Estate Value Increase N/A 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% O&M 90% Cash Flow Surplus/(Deficit) $M 0.34 $ (0.67) $ (0.91) $ 0.05 $ (0.25) $ (0.75) $ (1.20) $ (1.27) $ (1.38) $ (1.54) $ (2.06) $ RS_DEV 50% End of Year Fund Balance $M 13.24 $ 12.57 $ 11.66 $ 11.71 $ 11.47 $ 10.72 $ 9.51 $ 8.25 $ 6.87 $ 5.33 $ 3.27 $ CO_DEV 50% Reserve Target Surplus/(Deficit) $M 9.02 $ 8.16 $ 7.09 $ 6.85 $ 6.46 $ 5.56 $ 4.20 $ 2.72 $ 1.15 $ (0.59) $ (2.86) $ RS Base 35 Debt Service Coverage 2.24 2.10 1.96 1.82 1.68 1.54 1.40 1.26 1.12 0.98 0.84 CO Base 350,000 Coverage Requirement 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Capital Expense $M 0.81 $ 0.87 $ 0.74 $ 0.53 $ 0.57 $ 0.91 $ 0.91 $ 0.94 $ 0.96 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ Health $M 0.55
Sav e Calc Reset 5/10 e l Reserv e What If VRP / CIP Fire PST Sav e Calc Reset 5/10 e l Reserv e What If VRP / CIP Fire PST
Financial Indicators Debt Service Coverage Scenario Inputs 16
* Example shown for illustration purposes only
$- $500,000 $1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000 $3,000,000 $3,500,000 $4,000,000 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Development Fiscal Impact
Annual Revenues and Expenses from Development Annual Net Fiscal Impact
$- $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Development Cash Flows
Total Revenue Impact Total Expense Impact
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* Example shown for illustration purposes only
Summary of Fiscal Impact
Taxable Value per Household 200,000 $ Residential Development Execution 75% Commercial Development Execution 75%
Development Impact on Revenue FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Residential Development Ongoing Revenue Impact
81,257 $ 248,410 $ 422,435 $ 603,753 $ 792,807 $ 990,067 $ 1,485,797 $ 2,003,798 $ 2,545,422 $ 3,112,092 $ Residential Development One-Time Revenue Impact
108,766 $ 111,068 $ 113,440 $ 115,883 $ 118,400 $ 120,991 $ 356,955 $ 363,991 $ 371,237 $ 378,701 $ Commercial Development Ongoing Revenue Impact
346,238 $ 868,797 $ 1,443,012 $ 1,710,721 $ 1,955,117 $ 2,215,066 $ 2,491,789 $ 2,786,614 $ 3,048,870 $ 3,330,751 $ Commercial Development One-Time Revenue Impact
301,758 $ 65,580 $ 211,964 $ 67,296 $ 67,674 $ 68,082 $ 68,523 $ 69,001 $ 69,444 $ 69,930 $ Total Revenue Impact
838,019 $ 1,293,855 $ 2,190,851 $ 2,497,652 $ 2,933,997 $ 3,394,206 $ 4,403,064 $ 5,223,405 $ 6,034,973 $ 6,891,474 $
Development Impact on Expenses FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Residential Development Operating Expense Impact
31,668 $ 63,335 $ 95,003 $ 126,670 $ 158,338 $ 190,006 $ 271,033 $ 352,059 $ 433,086 $ 514,113 $ Commercial Development Operating Expense Impact
55,982 $ 111,964 $ 170,840 $ 193,625 $ 211,615 $ 231,044 $ 252,054 $ 274,805 $ 295,864 $ 319,028 $ Capital Impact
17,506 $ 17,984 $ 18,462 $ 18,939 $
42,042 $ 43,168 $ Total Expense Impact
87,649 $ 192,805 $ 283,827 $ 338,757 $ 388,893 $ 421,049 $ 523,087 $ 626,865 $ 770,992 $ 876,309 $
Development Impact on Additional Personal Services Expense FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Planned FTEs
248,995 $ 588,335 $ 685,479 $ 773,583 $ 796,791 $ 1,119,207 $ 1,152,784 $ 1,187,367 $ 1,222,988 $ 1,632,141 $ Unplanned FTEs
26,523 $ 54,636 $ 84,413 $ 146,394 $ 180,372 $ 247,831 $ 288,557 $ 460,609 $ 612,652 $ Total Personal Services Expense Impact
248,995 $ 614,858 $ 740,115 $ 857,996 $ 943,184 $ 1,299,580 $ 1,400,614 $ 1,475,924 $ 1,683,597 $ 2,244,793 $
Development Impact on Capital Improvement Program FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 FY 2027
Development Impact
17,506 $ 17,984 $ 18,462 $ 18,939 $
42,042 $ 43,168 $ Total CIP Impact
17,506 $ 17,984 $ 18,462 $ 18,939 $
42,042 $ 43,168 $ Total Expense Impact
336,645 $ 825,169 $ 1,041,926 $ 1,215,215 $ 1,351,016 $ 1,720,629 $ 1,923,701 $ 2,102,789 $ 2,496,631 $ 3,164,270 $ Net Cash Flow from Development
501,374 $ 468,686 $ 1,148,925 $ 1,282,437 $ 1,582,981 $ 1,673,576 $ 2,479,363 $ 3,120,616 $ 3,538,342 $ 3,727,204 $ Present Value of Cash Flows (Fiscal Impact) $16,962,563 1.75%
Present Value of Cash Flows One-Time and Ongoing Revenues and Expenses from Development 18
* Example shown for illustration purposes only
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Accessibility/ convenience for users Enhanced Security Co-location
& adjacency
impacts Placemaking Opportunity Preservation
Asset Operational impacts
most important?
tradeoffs?
acceptable?
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Funding capacity Impact on Bond Ratings
Implementation
Litigation Control & Risk Allocation Construction
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most important?
tradeoffs?
acceptable?
Quantitative
Net Project Costs Net Fiscal Impact to County
Qualitative
Operational Impacts Placemaking Enhanced Security Adjacency/ Co-Location Impacts Preservation of Historic Asset Accessibility/ Convenience for Users
Risk Management
Implementation risk Construction risk Certainty of funding Impact on bond ratings Constraints to P3 Litigation
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tiers of importance
― Objective/quantitative
― Subjective/qualitative ― Achieving the county’s goals ― Creating the greatest opportunity ― Maintaining the lowest risk
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infrastructure for a projected income stream.
tolls or a portion of tolls cover development, maintenance and operating cost.
through user rent payment. Developer may also maintain and operate the building and is compensated through additional rent.
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Design
DESIGN BID FINANCE OWN OPERATE BUILD
Jan 2011 BOS issues RFP for court study Feb 2013 Study findings presented to the Board March 2013 Meetings with Court Stakeholders May 2013 BOS directs staff to pursue downtown
Summer 2013 City and county begin discussions on property acquisition and parking Sept 2013 BOS is updated on status of City negotiations
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March 2014 Newly elected BOS discusses all court
April 2014 BOS work- session with Court Stake- holders June 2014 BOS directs staff to pursue two expansion
July 2014 City and County form joint steering committee to discuss co- location and parking for downtown
July 2014 – Summer 2015 Team meets multiple times to continue discussions May – Sept. 2016 Urban dev/redev identified as top County priorities, negotiating committee considers alternatives for Board and Council
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October 2016 Staff presents Courts options to BOS / Public Hearing December 2016 Staff presentation
direction to pursue County
(Resolution) Spring 2017 Development Services Advisor brought on Board to assess Courts / County Office Building Options Summer 2017 Data-based studies, Rio29 Small Area Plan, Courts Adjacency Study, COB Program Analysis Dec 2017 Report / recommendation to BOS regarding Courts / County Office Building
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Goals and Objectives and guiding principles of analysis
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Analysis of Option 5 (Relocation of Courts and/or County Office Building (COB))
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Program Analysis New County office building space program requirements and cost estimates
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Confirmation of Courts building (Circuit / Gen District and associated functions) space assumptions and costs
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“Adjacency” study of potential impact to Courts relocation (separation from J&DR, Separation for City and associated support functions)
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Analysis of Option 1 – updated costs based on prior programming and potential reduction of Circuit Court scope (Moseley study)
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Fiscal Impact analysis utilizing Rio/29 Small area plan work and 3 concepts: Courts only, COB
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Proforma Financial Analysis of potential P3 scenario of 3 concepts
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Surplus building analysis, including potential uses of Court complex if relocation option chosen
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Draft report, including net costs, P3 scenarios, economic analysis, pros and cons
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Final report
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