Operational Opportunities to Minimize Renewables Curtailments Clyde - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2017 CAISO - Public Page 1 2017 CAISO - Public

Operational Opportunities to Minimize Renewables Curtailments

Clyde Loutan Principal, Renewable Energy Integration July 24, 2017

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Agenda

• Background
• Real-time control performance standards
• Operational observations
• Potential solutions & opportunities
• Questions & next steps

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ISO Resource Mix

• Good progress toward State's RPS goals

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Wind

• Unpredictable Output
• 4,985 MW Peak – May 16, 2017
• ≈ 6,000 MW Installed Capacity

Solar Thermal / Photo Voltaic

• Semi – Predictable Output
• 9,914 MW Peak – June 17, 2017
• ≈ 10,000 MW Installed Capacity

Roof Top Solar

• Semi – Predictable Output
• Behind the meter – Residential
• 5,000+ MW Estimated Capacity

Power industry transformation

Goals:  Higher expectation of reliability  Higher expectation of security  Smart Grid  Situational awareness through Visualization Main Drivers:  California RPS  GHG reduction  Once-through-Cooled plants retirement

* Solar & wind served 58.7% of load on 5/13/2017 @ 2:55 p.m.

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4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 32,000 36,000 40,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD* 2020 2030 Renewable Capacity (MW)

Biofuel Geothermal Small Hydro Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal Renewables (2030 - 2030)

Approximately 4,000 MW of additional transmission- connected renewables by 2020 and an additional 10,000 to 15,000 MW by 2030

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Expected behind-the-meter solar PV build-out through 2020

The ISO has no real-time telemetry for behind-the-meter solar PV, but these resources impact control performance

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Actual net-load and 3-hour ramps are about four years ahead of ISO’s original estimate

Typical Spring Day

Net Load of 8,493 MW

• n May 14, 2017

Actual 3-hour ramp

• f 12,960 MW on

December 18, 2016

Deeper Belly

Steeper

Ramps

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Solar production varies from one day to the next ---

• ne week of March 2017

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average

Average MW

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Wind production varies from one day to the next ---

• ne week of March 2017

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average

Average

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Net Load varies from one day to the next --- one week of March 2017

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average

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Actual monthly 1-hour upward ramp could be about 50% of the 3-hour upward ramps for 2016

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• Act. 1Hr_Up_Ramp 4,144

4,929 4,260 3,870 3,585 3,265 2,688 3,118 4,453 4,889 5,512 5,676

• Act. 3Hr_Up_Ramp 9,687 10,891 9,828

8,397 8,411 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12,960 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 MW

Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Upward Monthly Ramps --- 2016

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Actual monthly 1-hour and 3-hour downward ramps for 2016 were greater than during the summer months

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• Act. 3Hr_Dn_Ramp -6,899 -7,681 -7,365 -7,677 -8,382 -10,63 -10,83 -10,95 -10,31 -7,327 -7,705 -8,028

Act 1Hr_Dn_Ramp

• 3,355 -3,917 -3,537 -3,774 -3,387 -4,070 -4,265 -4,089 -3,915 -4,035 -5,274 -4,560
• 12,000
• 10,000
• 8,000
• 6,000
• 4,000
• 2,000

MW

Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Downward Monthly Ramps --- 2016

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Expected monthly 3-hour upward ramps for 2017 through 2020

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 (Actual) 9,687 10,891 9,828 8,397 9,263 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12,960 2017 11,342 12,465 11,253 9,973 10,878 8,996 8,379 8,768 11,575 11,900 12,391 14,004 2018 12,282 13,313 12,352 11,111 11,803 10,039 9,326 9,617 12,660 12,954 13,376 14,567 2019 13,595 14,543 13,574 12,672 12,631 11,350 10,616 10,982 13,981 14,199 14,553 15,495 2020 15,439 15,984 15,089 14,572 13,859 13,181 12,391 12,821 16,061 16,169 16,293 16,817 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 MW

Monthly 3-Hour Upward Ramps

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Control Performance Standards & Operational Observations

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The assessment of a Balancing Authority control performance is based on the following components

• Balancing Authority Ace Limit (BAAL) - is a real-time measure of area

control error and system frequency which cannot exceed predefined limits for more than 30-minutes

• Control Performance Standard (CPS1) - measures how well a BA’s ACE

performs in conjunction with the frequency error of the Interconnection

• Disturbance Control Standard (DCS) - is the responsibility of a BA to recover

its ACE to zero if its ACE just prior to the disturbance was greater than zero or to its pre-disturbance level if ACE was less than zero within 15 minutes

• Frequency Response

– All BAs to support the interconnection frequency within 52 seconds following a disturbance greater than 500 MW anywhere within the interconnection

CPS1 Pass ≥ 100% over rolling 12 months BAALLimit ≤ 30 minutes DCS = 100%

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• 800
• 700
• 600
• 500
• 400
• 300
• 200
• 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 59.9 59.95 60 60.05 60.1 ACE (MW) Frequency (Hz)

BAAL Exceedance (minutes) --- 06/19/2017

NERC_ACE BAALLow BAALHigh CPS1Bounds CPS1Bounds

Balancing Authority ACE Limits (BAAL) cannot be exceeded for more than 30 consecutive minutes

• BAAL is designed

to replace CPS2

• Control opposes

frequency deviation

• BAAL relaxes

area regulation needs

• ACE is allowed to

be outside BAAL for up to 30 minutes

1 2 3 4

Operating Statistics indicate we are driving system to high Frequency and high ACE

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Operational Statistics for January through March 2017

• The Western Interconnection implemented 23 fast manual time error correction

from January through March 2017 and no manual slow time error correction

• Fast manual time error correction requires the Western Interconnection to
• perate at a scheduled frequency of 59.98 Hz instead 60 Hz
• During the hours when fast manual time error correction takes place, the

system frequency is .02Hz closer to the relay settings of the first block of under-frequency load shedding

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 59.95 59.96 59.97 59.98 59.99 60 60.01 60.02 60.03 60.04 60.05 Occurrences

System Frequency Distribution January through March 2017

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

• 500
• 400
• 300
• 200
• 100

100 200 300 400 500 Occurrences ACE (MW)

CAISO's ACE Distribution January through March 2017

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16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000

• 1000%
• 800%
• 600%
• 400%
• 200%

0% 200% 400% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load (MW) Hourly CPS1 (%)

Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load --- 01/31/2016

CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load

ISO tracks real-time supply and demand balance as a measure of operational effectiveness

ISO supports the Western Grid when the blue bars are above 100% (green line) ISO leans on other BAs when the red bars are less than 100% Performance Target

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Intra-hour variability and uncertainty could result in inability to control the interconnection frequency in real-time

CPS1 is evaluated on a rolling 12-month average. Over the past few years, the rolling average has been declining as a result

• f some poor daily performances. Thus, the CAISO needs to take measures to improve daily performance on days with

higher variability.

• 1000%
• 800%
• 600%
• 400%
• 200%

0% 200% 400% 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Hourly CPS1 (%) Wind/Solar (MW) Wind/Solar vs. CPS1 --- 01/31/2016

CPS1<100% CPS1>=100% Wind Solar CPS1 (Pass)

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59.92 59.94 59.96 59.98 60 60.02 60.04 60.06

• 400
• 300
• 200
• 100

100 200 300 400 500 600 Frequency (Hz) ACE (MW)

ACE vs. Frequency --- March 6, 2017

ACE ACE_zero Actual Frequency Scheduled_Frequency

Load, net-load and solar ramps during sunrise and sunset for March 6, 2017 (Weekday)

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 Wind & Solar (MW) Load & Net Load (MW)

Load, Wind,Solar & Net-Load ---March 6, 2017

Load Net_Load Wind Solar

Load Solar Net Load

Sunrise Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 7:00 – 10:00

• 6

31

• 37

MW Change

• 1,023

5,529

• 6,724

Sunset Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 16:00 – 19:00 27

• 37

61 MW Change 4,801

• 6,703

11,049

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000

• 200%
• 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load (MW) Hourly CPS1 (%)

Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load --- 03/06/2017

CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load

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Load, net-load and solar ramps during sunrise and sunset for March 26, 2017 (Weekend)

Load Solar Net Load

Sunrise Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 7:00 – 10:00 9 44

• 30

MW Change 1,612 7,947

• 5,489

Sunset Ramp Rate (MW/Min) 16:00 – 19:00 16

• 37

54 MW Change 2,908

• 6,575

9,663

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 Wind & Solar (MW) Load & Net Load (MW)

Load, Wind,Solar & Net-Load --- March 26, 2017

Load Net_Load Wind Solar

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000

• 500%
• 400%
• 300%
• 200%
• 100%

0% 100% 200% 300% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load (MW) Hourly CPS1 (%)

Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load --- 03/26/2017

CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load

59.88 59.9 59.92 59.94 59.96 59.98 60 60.02 60.04 60.06

• 1000
• 800
• 600
• 400
• 200

200 400 600 800 1000 Frequency (Hz) ACE (MW)

ACE vs. Frequency --- March 26, 2017

ACE ACE_zero Actual Frequency Scheduled_Frequency

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ACE * Delta Frequency vs. solar production for January through March 2017

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

ACE * Delta Frequency --- January through March 2017

Average of ACE*del_freq ACE*Delta_Freq_limit Solar

CAISO Leans

• n the

Interconnection CAISO Supports the Interconnection Frequency

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Hourly CPS1 for January through April 2017

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load (MW) CPS1 (%)

January, 2017 --- CPS1 (116.9%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production

CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load (MW) CPS1 (%)

February, 2017 --- CPS1 (107.8%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production

CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load (MW) CPS1 (%)

March, 2017 --- CPS1 (112.3%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production

CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000

• 50%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load (MW) CPS1 (%)

April, 2017 --- CPS1 (115.4%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production

CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load

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Potential Solutions & Opportunities

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Storage – increase the effective participation by energy storage resources. Demand response – enhance DR initiatives to enable adjustments in consumer demand, both up and down, when warranted by grid conditions. Time-of-use rates – implement time-of-use rates that match consumption with efficient use of clean energy supplies. Minimum generation – explore policies to reduce minimum operating levels for existing generators, thus making room for more renewable production. Western EIM expansion – expand the western Energy Imbalance Market. Regional coordination – offers more diversified set of clean energy resources through a cost effective and reliable regional market. Electric vehicles – incorporate electric vehicle charging systems that are responsive to changing grid conditions. Flexible resources – invest in modern, fast-responding resources that can follow sudden increases and decreases in demand.

A suite of solutions are necessary to maintain reliability

Dispatchable VER – VERS with active power management capability can participate in the ISO’s markets for energy and Ancillary Services.

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Certified generation fleet ramp rate per minute

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 CCYC GTUR HYDR OTHR PHOT PTUR RECP STUR WIND MW

Certified Capacity of the CAISO's Generation Fleet by Ramp Rate --- 2017

RR<5 5≤RR<10 10≤RR<20 20≤RR

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Renewables and imports can provide more real-time flexibility via bids

Source: DMM 2016 Annual Report

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Can variable energy resources provide essential reliability services to reliably operate the grid?

• NERC has identified three essential reliability services to

reliably integrate higher levels of renewable resources

– Frequency control – Voltage control – Active power management such as ramping capability or flexible capacity

• ISO has demonstrated how advancement in smart inverter

technology allows VERs to provide services similar to conventional resources

• Need to leverage VER resource’s operating characteristics to

decarbonize the grid

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The CAISO would like to start a conversation on how renewable resources can support control performance

• Active power controls:

– When resourced dispatched they ramp at expected ramp-rate – During sunrise or wind upward ramps resources ramp at maximum ramp-rate

• Enable and Incentivize VER resources to provide:

– Frequency response – Regulation – Flex ramp – Voltage support

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Appendix

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Increased occurrences of negative prices during the middle of the day

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 # of Occurrences RTD Prices < Zero

Distribution of Negative Prices - March, April & May 2012 through 2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Increasing real-time negative energy price frequency indicates over- generation risk in the middle

• f the day

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Renewable curtailment in 2024 at 40% RPS is significant

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Next steps

• Request stakeholders to submit written comments by

close of business August 7 – Comments template available at:

http://www.caiso.com/Documents/CommentsTemplate-Inverter- BasedGenerationIssuesWorkshop.docx

– Submit to comments mailbox:

initiativecomments@caiso.com

Thank you!