Operational Opportunities to Minimize Renewables Curtailments Clyde Loutan Principal, Renewable Energy Integration July 24, 2017 Page 1 2017 CAISO - Public 2017 CAISO - Public
Agenda • Background • Real-time control performance standards • Operational observations • Potential solutions & opportunities • Questions & next steps Page 2 2017 CAISO - Public
ISO Resource Mix - Good progress toward State's RPS goals Page 3 2017 CAISO - Public
Power industry transformation Wind Main Drivers: • Unpredictable Output California RPS • 4,985 MW Peak – May 16, 2017 GHG reduction •≈ 6,000 MW Installed Capacity Once-through-Cooled plants retirement Solar Thermal / Photo Voltaic Goals: Higher expectation of • Semi – Predictable Output reliability • 9,914 MW Peak – June 17, 2017 •≈ 10,000 MW Installed Capacity Higher expectation of security * Solar & wind served 58.7% of load on 5/13/2017 @ 2:55 p.m. Smart Grid Roof Top Solar Situational • Semi – Predictable Output awareness through • Behind the meter – Residential Visualization • 5,000+ MW Estimated Capacity Page 4 2017 CAISO - Public
Approximately 4,000 MW of additional transmission- connected renewables by 2020 and an additional 10,000 to 15,000 MW by 2030 40,000 Biofuel Geothermal 36,000 Small Hydro Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal 32,000 Renewables (2030 - 2030) Renewable Capacity (MW) 28,000 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD* 2020 2030 Page 5 2017 CAISO - Public
Expected behind-the-meter solar PV build-out through 2020 The ISO has no real-time telemetry for behind-the-meter solar PV, but these resources impact control performance Page 6 2017 CAISO - Public
Actual net-load and 3-hour ramps are about four years ahead of ISO’s original estimate Typical Spring Day Steeper Ramps Actual 3-hour ramp Deeper of 12,960 MW on December 18, 2016 Belly Net Load of 8,493 MW on May 14, 2017 Page 7 2017 CAISO - Public
Solar production varies from one day to the next --- one week of March 2017 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 MW Average 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 Average Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Page 8 2017 CAISO - Public
Wind production varies from one day to the next --- one week of March 2017 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Average 1,500 1,000 500 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average Page 9 2017 CAISO - Public
Net Load varies from one day to the next --- one week of March 2017 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average Page 10 2017 CAISO - Public
Actual monthly 1-hour upward ramp could be about 50% of the 3-hour upward ramps for 2016 Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Upward Monthly Ramps --- 2016 14,000 12,000 10,000 MW 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Act. 1Hr_Up_Ramp 4,144 4,929 4,260 3,870 3,585 3,265 2,688 3,118 4,453 4,889 5,512 5,676 Act. 3Hr_Up_Ramp 9,687 10,891 9,828 8,397 8,411 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12,960 Page 11 2017 CAISO - Public
Actual monthly 1-hour and 3-hour downward ramps for 2016 were greater than during the summer months Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Downward Monthly Ramps --- 2016 0 -2,000 -4,000 MW -6,000 -8,000 -10,000 -12,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Act. 3Hr_Dn_Ramp -6,899 -7,681 -7,365 -7,677 -8,382 -10,63 -10,83 -10,95 -10,31 -7,327 -7,705 -8,028 Act 1Hr_Dn_Ramp -3,355 -3,917 -3,537 -3,774 -3,387 -4,070 -4,265 -4,089 -3,915 -4,035 -5,274 -4,560 Page 12 2017 CAISO - Public
Expected monthly 3-hour upward ramps for 2017 through 2020 Monthly 3-Hour Upward Ramps 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 MW 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 (Actual) 9,687 10,891 9,828 8,397 9,263 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12,960 2017 11,342 12,465 11,253 9,973 10,878 8,996 8,379 8,768 11,575 11,900 12,391 14,004 2018 12,282 13,313 12,352 11,111 11,803 10,039 9,326 9,617 12,660 12,954 13,376 14,567 2019 13,595 14,543 13,574 12,672 12,631 11,350 10,616 10,982 13,981 14,199 14,553 15,495 2020 15,439 15,984 15,089 14,572 13,859 13,181 12,391 12,821 16,061 16,169 16,293 16,817 Page 13 2017 CAISO - Public
Control Performance Standards & Operational Observations Page 14 2017 CAISO - Public
The assessment of a Balancing Authority control performance is based on the following components • Balancing Authority Ace Limit (BAAL) - is a real-time measure of area control error and system frequency which cannot exceed predefined limits for more than 30-minutes BAAL Limit ≤ 30 minutes • Control Performance Standard (CPS1) - measures how well a BA’s ACE performs in conjunction with the frequency error of the Interconnection CPS1 Pass ≥ 100 % over rolling 12 months • Disturbance Control Standard (DCS) - is the responsibility of a BA to recover its ACE to zero if its ACE just prior to the disturbance was greater than zero or to its pre-disturbance level if ACE was less than zero within 15 minutes DCS = 100% • Frequency Response – All BAs to support the interconnection frequency within 52 seconds following a disturbance greater than 500 MW anywhere within the interconnection Page 15 2017 CAISO - Public
Balancing Authority ACE Limits (BAAL) cannot be exceeded for more than 30 consecutive minutes BAAL Exceedance (minutes) --- 06/19/2017 800 700 1 • BAAL is designed 2 600 to replace CPS2 500 • Control opposes 400 frequency 300 deviation 200 100 • BAAL relaxes ACE (MW) area regulation 0 59.9 59.95 60 60.05 60.1 needs -100 Operating Statistics indicate -200 • ACE is allowed to we are driving system to high -300 be outside BAAL Frequency and high ACE for up to 30 -400 minutes 3 4 -500 -600 -700 -800 Frequency (Hz) NERC_ACE BAALLow BAALHigh CPS1Bounds CPS1Bounds Page 16 2017 CAISO - Public
Operational Statistics for January through March 2017 System Frequency Distribution CAISO's ACE Distribution January through March 2017 January through March 2017 16,000 20,000 14,000 18,000 16,000 12,000 14,000 10,000 Occurrences Occurrences 12,000 8,000 10,000 6,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 0 59.95 59.96 59.97 59.98 59.99 60 60.01 60.02 60.03 60.04 60.05 0 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 ACE (MW) • The Western Interconnection implemented 23 fast manual time error correction from January through March 2017 and no manual slow time error correction • Fast manual time error correction requires the Western Interconnection to operate at a scheduled frequency of 59.98 Hz instead 60 Hz • During the hours when fast manual time error correction takes place, the system frequency is .02Hz closer to the relay settings of the first block of under-frequency load shedding Page 17 2017 CAISO - Public
ISO tracks real-time supply and demand balance as a measure of operational effectiveness Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load --- 01/31/2016 ISO supports the Western Grid when 400% 26,000 Performance the blue bars are above 100% (green line) Target 200% 24,000 0% Hourly CPS1 (%) Net Load (MW) 22,000 -200% -400% ISO leans on other BAs when the 20,000 red bars are less than 100% -600% 18,000 -800% -1000% 16,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load Page 18 2017 CAISO - Public
Intra-hour variability and uncertainty could result in inability to control the interconnection frequency in real-time Wind/Solar vs. CPS1 --- 01/31/2016 3,500 400% 3,000 200% 2,500 0% Wind/Solar (MW) Hourly CPS1 (%) 2,000 -200% 1,500 -400% 1,000 -600% 500 -800% 0 -1000% CPS1<100% CPS1>=100% Wind Solar CPS1 (Pass) CPS1 is evaluated on a rolling 12-month average. Over the past few years, the rolling average has been declining as a result of some poor daily performances. Thus, the CAISO needs to take measures to improve daily performance on days with higher variability. Page 19 2017 CAISO - Public
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