Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and - - PDF document

3/10/2010 1

Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate Market Review and Forecast 2010 2010

Presented by: E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development

John R. Broderick, President

Nancy Bagranoff, DBA; Dean, College of Business & Public Administration, Old Dominion University

Industry Professional Advisors to the Center (IPAC)

Honorary Member Robert M. Stanton, CSM and CPM, Stanton Partners, Inc. Jeff Ainslie, Ainslie Group

• G. Robert Aston, Jr., TowneBank

Ramon W. Breeden, Jr., The Breeden Company Sanford (Sandy) M. Cohen, Divaris Real Estate, Inc. Michael Newsome, Clark Whitehill Enterprises, Inc. Harrison J. Perrine, Perrine Investments Don Perry, Continental Development Victor L. Pickett, Grandbridge Real Estate Capital, LLC Thomas E. Robinson, Robinson Development Group Jim V. Rose, Rose & Womble Realty Co., LLC Bradley R. Sanford, MAI, Dominion Realty Advisors Craig Cope, Liberty Property Trust Cecil V. Cutchins, Olympia Development Corporation Robert L. Dewey, Willcox & Savage, PC Thomas M. Dillon, Fulton Bank

• N. Joseph Dreps, BB&T

Pamela J. Faber, LeClair Ryan Joel T. Flax, CPA, Goodman & Company David M. Gianascoli, Gee's Group Real Estate Development John L. Gibson, III, Ellis-Gibson Development Group Warren Harris, City of Virginia Beach Economic Development Aubrey L. Layne, Jr., Great Atlantic Management, LLC Miles B. Leon, S. L. Nusbaum Realty Company Michael W. McCabe, Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate y , , y Burrell F. Saunders, CMSS Architects, PC Reese Smith, Reese Smith & Associates Tony Smith, Robinson Development Group Deborah K. Stearns, CPM, SIOR, Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate Richard Thurmond, William E. Wood Jon S. Wheeler, Wheeler Interests Robert T. Williams, Tri City Developers, LLC Rod Woolard, City of Norfolk Economic Development Steven Wright, City of Chesapeake Economic Development

CREED Council

• J. Scott Adams, CB Richard Ellis of Virginia, Inc.

• M. Albert Carmichael, Harvey Lindsay Commercial Real Estate
• W. Page Cockrell, Hurt & Proffitt

• J. Randy Royal, Kimley-Horn and Associates

• E. Andrew Keeney, Kaufman & Canoles, P.C.

• H. Mac Weaver, II, Wells Fargo Real Estate Group

• F. Blair Wimbush, Norfolk Southern Corporation

• G. Cliff Moore, Virtexco Corporation

• F. Craig Read, Read Commercial Properties

Executive Committee Executive Committee

Chair Brad Sanford Director John Lombard Program Chair Stephanie Sanker Publications Chair Brian Dundon Membership Chair Craig Cope Curriculum Co‐Chairs Jon Crunkleton, Brad Sanford Sponsorship Chair Fred Facka By‐Laws Chair Andrew Keeney Past Chair Tom Dillon At‐Large Jonathan Guion Billy King Aubrey Layne

3/10/2010 2

Market Review Committee Market Review Committee

Industrial Bill Throne and Stephanie Sanker Office Scott Adams Retail David Machupa and David Chapman Retail David Machupa and David Chapman Multi‐family Charles Dalton/Real Data Residential Blair Hardesty and Van Rose Investment Scott Adams

Publications Committee

Brian Dundon Nancy Gossett Elizabeth Hancock Sandi Prestridge Maureen Rooks Brad Sanford Elizabeth Hancock Janice Hurley Joy Learn Brad Sanford Lane Shea Kristi Sutphin

Special thank you to

Inside Business

for their sponsorship

• ver the past seven years.

Program Moderator

Michael J. Seiler, Ph.D.

Professor and Robert M. Stanton Chair of Real Estate and Economic Development Investment Market Review

Presented By:

• J. Scott Adams, CCIM
• J. Scott Adams, CCIM

President, Mid-South Region March 10, 2010

Investment Market Review

• Trends in Property Sales (DOWN!)
• Nationally
• Hampton Roads
• Trends in Distressed Assets (UP!)

TOPICS TO COVER

• The Lending Market Today (IT DEPENDS)
• Commercial Real Estate as an Investment Class

(A WINNER OVER THE LONG TERM)

3/10/2010 3

Trends in Property Sales Nationally

National Sales Transactions of $5 Million or Greater

$250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 $400,000,000 $450,000,000 $500,000,000

$443.4 Billion

$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 2007 2008 2009

$135.4 Billion $51.1 Billion

Source: Real Capital Analytics

$600 000 000 $800,000,000 $1,000,000,000 $1,200,000,000

Local Sales Transactions of $5 Million or Greater

$602.3 Million $1.083 Billion

Trends in Property Sales Hampton Roads

$0 $200,000,000 $400,000,000 $600,000,000 2007 2008 2009

$139.5 Million

Source: CB Richard Ellis Market Research

2009 Top Local Sales Transactions: Multi-Family Springhouse @ Newport The Townes @ Jones Run

Woodshire Apartments Harbour View East 2009 Top Local SalesTransactions: Retail

London Bridge Shopping Center 2009 Top Local Sales Transactions: Retail

2009 Top Local Sales Transaction: Office Lynnwood Plaza

3/10/2010 4

Trends in Distressed Assets

WHAT IS A “DISTRESSED ASSET”?

 A loan default has occurred or is imminent

and/or  The owner/sponsor of the asset is bankrupt

• r faces financial trouble

Trends in Distressed Assets

The Lending Market Today

HOW IS THE LENDING MARKET TODAY? It Depends! 1) By Property Type

Multi-Family vs. all other Property Types

2) By Asset Stability

Stable Positive Cash Flow

Stable Positive Cash Flow vs. Unstable Positive or Negative Cash Flow

3) By Investor Type (For Office and Industrial Assets)

Owner-Occupants vs. Traditional Investors Commercial Real Estate vs. Stocks and Bonds

Higher Returns for real estate over a 5 and 10 year hold period

Commercial Real Estate as an Investment

Commercial Real Estate as an Investment

GAME PLAN FOR SUCCESS FOR SERVICE PROVIDERS

 Be sensitive to the stress on real estate owners

 Educate our clients with fresh, thorough information Investment Market Review

 Seize every opportunity for our clients  Make a difference in our clients’ lives

3/10/2010 5

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Presented by: William C. Throne, CCIM, SIOR, ALC

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

3 NUMBERS

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 12 94 12 94

First Number:

12.94 12.94 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

87.06% occupied!

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

11.1% in 2008

12.94% 12.94%

3/10/2010 6

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

12.94% 12.94%

11.1% in 2008 10.51% in 2007 5.87% in 2006

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

1990 10.2% 1991 10.9% 1992 13.5% 1993 12.3% 1994 10.8% 1995 9.2% 1996 8.7% 1997 8.6%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 12.94% 12.94%

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

National Vacancy Rate:

C&W: 10.8% CoStar: 10.1%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

Compared to other Markets:

Savannah, GA 19.9% Chicago, IL 11.4% Richmond, VA 10.9% Seattle, WA 9.3% L.A. (South), CA 5.7%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the good):

Oyster Point: 4.35% Williamsburg: 3.99%

12.94% 12.94%

3/10/2010 7

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the good):

Peninsula: 9.49%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the good):

Lowered Vacancy in 2009:

*Bainbridge *Lynnhaven *Portsmouth *Copeland *Oakland *Williamsburg

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Hampton Roads Industrial Vacancy Rate

First Number:

HR Submarkets (the not-so-good):

Norfolk Commerce Park: 38.41% Isle of Wight: 28.45% Suffolk: 19.13%

12.94% 12.94% 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 4

Second Number:

4 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Rental Rate a Landlord would love to get for distribution space

Second Number:

$4.00 NNN $4.00 NNN psf psf/yr /yr

distribution space

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Rental Rate a Landlord would love to get for distribution space

Second Number:

*This will remain something of a benchmark for warehouse space. *Market rents for other subgroups will cluster around: $4.75-$5.75 NNN for general industrial $5.50-$6.50 NNN for higher rent submarkets

$4.00 NNN $4.00 NNN psf psf/yr /yr

distribution space

3/10/2010 8

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 4

Second Number:

4 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

• 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

• 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.
• 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

• 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.
• 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market.
• 3. The local industrial market is healthy with a modestly successful

2009.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of predictions I got wrong last year:

Second Number:

4

I got wrong last year:

• 1. GVA Advantis is bullish for 2009.
• 2. There are two big deals about to be announced in the market.
• 3. The local industrial market is healthy with a modestly successful

2009.

• 4. Vacancy rates are not expected to rise.

3/10/2010 9

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

The number of ‘big’ deals in the market this year:

Second Number:

4

this year:

• 1. Virginia Beach
• 2. Chesapeake
• 3. Norfolk
• 4. Suffolk

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Third Number:

10 10 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

Wish list for additional building sales in 2010:

Third Number:

10 10 10 10

more than last year! more than last year!

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Wish list for additional building sales in 2010:

Third Number:

10 10

more than last year! more than last year! *2009 had 20 industrial building sales compared to 34 for 2008,

• r a 42% reduction in sales volume.

*2009 average sales price: $69.18 per square foot. *2008 average sales price: $70.89 per square foot. *Financing will become even more of a challenge.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Third Number:

10 10 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10% 10%

Hopeful for a vacancy rate in 2010 of:

Third Number:

10% 10%

+1%? +2%? +1%? +2%?

• 1. Ford Plant sold? 2.3 million square feet off the market.
• 2. One large warehouse deal, please?
• 3. NO INDUSTRIAL LAND SALES IN 2009.
• 4. No speculative development.
• 1. More general manufacturing properties may come to market.

3/10/2010 10

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW 10 10

Third Number:

10 10 2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

• 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

• 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
• 2. Get your equity piece secure.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

• 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
• 2. Get your equity piece secure.
• 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

• 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
• 2. Get your equity piece secure.
• 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.
• 4. Stay in touch with your lenders.

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

• 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
• 2. Get your equity piece secure.
• 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.
• 4. Stay in touch with your lenders.
• 5. Keep your sense of humor.

3/10/2010 11

2009 ODU / CREED INDUSTRIAL REVIEW

How can I be successful in:

Third Number:

20 2010? 10?

• 1. You have to search for the hard-to-find eggs…
• 2. Get your equity piece secure.
• 3. Treat good tenants like the partners they are.
• 4. Stay in touch with your lenders.
• 5. Keep your sense of humor.
• 6. You want your friends to stay friends…

Hampton Roads Office Market Report Office Market Report

2009 Review 2010 Forecast

Craig Cope Vice President and City Manager Liberty Property Trust

• Review of 2009
• Acknowledge the top deals/projects in 2009

Agenda

• Discuss expectations for this year
• Tips for 2010
• Tenant market
• Momentum
• Positive absorption for 5th straight year

2009 Review

Positive absorption for 5 straight year

• Outperformed mid-south regional competitors
• Vacancy below national average of 16%

TOTAL VACANT VACANCY AVERAGE AREA

• SQ. FT.
• SQ. FT

% ASKING RENT

BY GEOGRAPHY

HAMPTON ROADS OVERALL OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY VACANCY RATE BY SUBMARKET AT YEAR-END 2009

DOWNTOWN NORFOLK 3,236,648 353,129 10.9% $21.21 SUBURBAN SOUTHSIDE 14,715,101 2,086,168 14.2% $19.24 SUBURBAN PENINSULA 5,118,154 901,906 17.6% $17.97 TOTALS 23,069,903 3,341,203 14.5% $19.11

Downtown Norfolk

3/10/2010 12

Norfolk Southside Peninsula

8.5% 8.3% 9.1% 12.1% 14.5% .0 % 5 .0 % 1 .0 0% 1 5 .0 0% 2 .0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

HAMPTON ROADS OVERALL MARKET VACANCY RATE AT YEAR END OF 2005- 2009 HAMPTON ROADS OVERALL MARKET

582,584 702,406 439,385 82,521 73,972

• 2

00 ,00

• 1

00 ,00 1 00 ,00 2 00 ,00 3 00 ,00 4 00 ,00 5 00 ,00 6 00 ,00 7 00 ,00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

HAMPTON ROADS OVERALL MARKET ABSORPTION FOR YEARS 2005-2009

TOTAL VACANT VACANCY AVERAGE MARKET

• SQ. FT
• SQ. FT

% ASKING RENT

Hampton Roads, VA 23,069,903 3,341,203 14.5% $19.11 Richmond, VA 25,705,307 4,961,124 19.3% $17.98 Raleigh, NC 45,075,693 8,418,958 18.7% $20.57 Charlotte, NC 36,157,350 6,255,222 17.3% $22.44

REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET COMPARISON AS OF YEAR-END 2009 REGIONAL OFFICE MARKET ABSORPTION AS OF YEAR-END 2009

73,972

• 1,230,510
• 421,643
• 776,606
• 1

,5 ,0

• 1

,0 ,0

• 5

,0 5 ,00

2010 Forecast

• Gap between asking rents and actual rents
• Vacancy rates will climb
• Momentum from 2009
• No new development
• Expect better 2010 vs. 2009

3/10/2010 13

2010 Tips

• Cater to existing tenants
• Reduce operating expenses

I ffi i

• Increase energy efficiency
• Offer appealing properties
• Overall environment for tenants/employees

2009 Retail 2009 Retail Market Overview Market Overview

Presented by:

David Machupa Thalhimer, a Member of the Cushman & Wakefield Alliance

Weathering the Storm Overview

Southside Peninsula Total

Number of Properties 273 136 409 GLA in SF 33,535,280 18,160,963 51,696,243 Vacant SF 2 714 514 2 392 710 5 107 224 Vacant SF 2,714,514 2,392,710 5,107,224 % Vacant 8% 13% 10% New Construction in SF 302,352 981,463 1,283,815 Occupied in SF 30,820,766 15,768,253 46,589,019 Absorption in SF

• 288,440

362,777 31,183,543

Out With the Old

3/10/2010 14

Harbour View Marketplace In With the New Six and Counting Peninsula Towne Center Peninsula Towne Center Pub Time

3/10/2010 15

Presented By: William H. Halprin Senior Vice President Director of Operations, Multifamily Property Management S.L. Nusbaum Realty Co.

• Stronger demand and a slower pace of construction improved

the region’s average vacancy rate to 6.9%

• During the 4th quarter of

2009, just 463 new units were completed and 813 units absorbed in the Hampton Roads market.

• There were 1,753 units under construction and an additional

1,522 units proposed.

• Based on the development pipeline, vacancy rates will move

closer to 8% in 2010.

• Average rents are expected to remain flat.

3/10/2010 16

MSOffice1

Slide 91 MSOffice1 Susan Childress, 2/17/2010

3/10/2010 17

RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE MARKET UPDATE 2010 2010

Van Rose, MIRM Van Rose, MIRM President, Rose and President, Rose and Womble Womble New Homes New Homes

2005 2007 2009

15 Year Closing 15 Year Closing New Construction & Resale History New Construction & Resale History

20,000 25,000 30,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Source:

5,000 10,000 15,000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

1,000 2,000 3,000

Existing Homes New Construction

3/10/2010 18

$323,152

$300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000

Hampton Roads Average Hampton Roads Average Closing Prices Closing Prices

$75k $232,152 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Existing Home New Construction

Source:

$18k

Market Share for Existing Homes Market Share for Existing Homes Detached Sales by Price Range Detached Sales by Price Range

1787 1690 1311 1258

75% 100% $400,000+ $300K to $400K

16% 12% 10% 14%

Source:

4868 4291 4485 3712

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $400K $200K to $300K <$200,000

33% 39% 36% 40%

Market Share for New Construction Market Share for New Construction Detached Sales by Price Range Detached Sales by Price Range

281 227 257 191

75% 100% $500,000+ $400K to $500K

18% 17% 12% 14%

Source:

657 441 566 556

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $500K $300K to $400K <$300,000

36% 29% 34% 40%

Market Share for Existing Homes Market Share for Existing Homes Attached Sales by Price Range Attached Sales by Price Range

948 869 267 209

75% 100% $300,000+ $200K to $300K

28% 8% 5% 24%

Source:

196 2090 2335 98

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $300K $100K to $200K <$100,000

3% 61% 65% 6%

Market Share for New Construction Market Share for New Construction Attached Sales by Price Range Attached Sales by Price Range

148 128 78 62

75% 100% $400,000+ $300K to $400K

12% 7% 6% 13%

Source:

270 730 525 252

0% 25% 50% 2008 2009 $400K $200K to $300K <$200,000

21% 60% 53% 28%

New Construction Product Mix New Construction Product Mix 2009 Closings 2009 Closings

25% 3%

Single Family Detached Multi-Story Condo

Source:

57% 2% 7% 5% 11% 1%

Condo Multi-Plex Condo Townhome/ Duplex

3/10/2010 19 Average Market Time Average Market Time Existing Homes Existing Homes

87 69 77 76 80 78 72 69 61 66 84 60 70 80 90 100 Market

Source:

46 36 27 28 48 10 20 30 40 50

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Days on

12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000

Hampton Roads Residential Inventory Hampton Roads Residential Inventory 2007 to 2009 2007 to 2009

Source:

8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010

Resale 11,091 units 9.4 months supply

Inventory

New Homes 1,289 units 7.1 months supply

Source: *Inventory on 03/03/10. Based on sales pace of last 6 months

Hampton Roads Residential Inventory by Price Range

1,231 254 1,401 632 199

75% 100% $500,000+ $400K to $500K 12% 11% 20% 15% 6%

Source:

4,736 162 3,091 366 308

0% 25% 50%

Existing Homes New Construction

$300K to $400K $200K to $300K <$200,000 43% 28% 24% 13% 28%

LET’S JUST TALK TALK ABOUT IT….

3/10/2010 20

11 MILLION 11 MILLION HOMEOWNERS ARE HOMEOWNERS ARE UNDERWATER!! UNDERWATER!!

Source: CNN Money

7 MILLION 7 MILLION FORECLOSURES FORECLOSURES STILL TO COME!! STILL TO COME!!

Source: Amherst Securities Group

1.35 YEARS TO 1.35 YEARS TO SELL CURRENT SELL CURRENT FORECLOSURE FORECLOSURE INVENTORY INVENTORY

Source: Amherst Securities Group

294 342 261 356 326 375 318 305 325 285 285 248

250 300 350 400 20% 25% 30% 35%

Hampton Roads Short Sale/Foreclosure Market Share

Source:

36 44 32 50 59 63 71 99 96 141 133 119 134 160 163 166 160 176 198

50 100 150 200

Jul-07 Oct Jan-08 Apr Jul Oct Jan-09 Apr Jul Oct Jan-10

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Total Short Sale/ Foreclosure Closings % Total Closings

Foreclosures by City/County

21% 9% 14% 10% Chesapeake Hampton Newport News

Source:

16% 11% 6% 13% Norfolk Portsmouth Suffolk Virginia Beach All Other Areas

3/10/2010 21

$200,000 $225,000 $250,000 $275,000

Existing Home Average Closing Prices Existing Home Average Closing Prices Versus Standard Appreciation Versus Standard Appreciation

$100,000 $125,000 $150,000 $175,000 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Existing Home Average Price 4% Appreciation $350,000 $400,000 $450,000

New Construction Average Closing Prices New Construction Average Closing Prices Versus Standard Appreciation Versus Standard Appreciation

$150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 New Construction Average Price 4% Appreciation

12% 14% 16% 18%

Interest Rates will Rise Interest Rates will Rise

4% 6% 8% 10% 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 30-Yr Fixed Avg

Source: Freddie Mac

Hampton Roads Hampton Roads Employment to Permit Ratio Employment to Permit Ratio

5 000 10,000 15,000 20,000 0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0

• 15,000
• 10,000
• 5,000

5,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

• 4.0
• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 Change in Employment Permits Issued E/P Ratio

Data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Census Bureau (Permits)- 2009 #'s are Preliminary

IF YOU IF YOU BUILD IT… BUILD IT… THEY WILL THEY WILL COME COME

3/10/2010 22 33 $368,048

# 5

45 $237,438

# 4 Riverwalk Townes

46 $252,617

# 3

62 $382,456

# 2

83 $180,506

# 1

92 $208,695

3/10/2010 23 AND THE AND THE Hampton Roads

Top 5 Builders

WINNERS WINNERS ARE…….. ARE……..

Source:

# 5

93

# 4

98

# 3

133

# 2

154

# 1

233

3/10/2010 24

Closing

Bradley R. Sanford, MAI Ch i E ti C itt Chair, Executive Committee

• E. V. Williams Center for

Real Estate and Economic Development

CREED Membership

Interested??? Please send a note of interest to the Please send a note of interest to the Membership Chair, Craig Cope (ccope@libertyproperty.com)

Old Dominion University Hampton Roads Real Estate

Thank you for attending! Thank you for attending! Please Join Us for the Reception Please Join Us for the Reception

p Market Review and Forecast

Presented by: E.V. Williams Center for Real Estate and Economic Development