Observed and Projected Climate Change in Michigan B.J. Baule - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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observed and projected climate change in michigan
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Observed and Projected Climate Change in Michigan B.J. Baule - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 15, 2023 167 likes •337 views

Observed and Projected Climate Change in Michigan B.J. Baule Climatologist Photo Credit: B.J. Baule Climate on Global to Local Scales Global trends are more certain than regional or local trends. Local factors can drastically alter the

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B.J. Baule Climatologist

Photo Credit: B.J. Baule

Observed and Projected Climate Change in Michigan

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Climate on Global to Local Scales

Global trends are more certain than regional or local trends. Local factors can drastically alter the magnitude

  • f climate change impacts, but can also be

adapted to more readily.

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Adaptation and Mitigation

Adaptation Mitigation

Projected Global Average Temperature

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What’s in a degree?

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Rising Temperatures 1.9°F Warmer

1951-2014

Observed

4 to 6°F Warmer

2041-2070

Future

Source: GLISA and Third National Climate Assessment

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Winters are warming faster.

3.2°F increase

during winter

(December – February)

1.9°F increase

averaged over the entire year

Source: GLISA and Third National Climate Assessment

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A Longer Freeze-free Season

Observed

30 to 70 Days

Longer

2070-2099

Observed changes due mostly to earlier last winter freeze Future

11 Days

Longer

1951-2014

Source: GLISA and Third National Climate Assessment

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Observed Snowfall

Snowfall has generally increased across the Northern Midwest, remained stable in the central latitudes, and has decreased in the southern areas.

More here Less here

1961-1990 Average 1981-2010 Average

From MRCC

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More Precipitation

Source: National Climatic Data Center Changes are calculated from linear best fits of annual totals from 1951-2014.

Not even across the state. Has increased most in SE MI (+17%). Decreased over the Western UP (-6%) Total annual precipitation has increased by:

8.9%

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Projected Precipitation

NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC

Winter +10 to 30% Spring +0 to +30% Fall +0 to +30% Summer

  • 10 to 0%

Annual +5 to 20%

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Precipitation Impacts: Seasonal Changes and Water Supply

Changing Seasonal Precipitation: Warmer springs and more precipitation increase the potential for mixed precipitation and variable spring weather. Summer Water Availability: Even as annual total precipitation increases, summers may become drier.

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More Problem Precipitation

Source: National Climatic Data Center Changes are calculated from linear best fits of annual totals from 1951-2014.

Nuisance flooding and minor damages are reported more frequently after these events

1.25-inch Precipitation Days:

25%

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Extreme Heat and Humidity

By mid-century, models project Michigan could see:

90°F Days

10-50 more days per year

95°F Days

5 to 20 more days per year

But, it is unclear if there has been a significant observed change in hot days.

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A Migrating Climate

The climate future generations experience will be fundamentally different than the climate today. By the end of this century, Michigan summers will feel more like current summers in Arkansas.

Courtesy UCS 2009, original work by Hayhoe et al.

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In adapting to Climate Change… Cities can lead by example.

Photo Credit: Dan Brown