1/18 S ystem for P rediction of E nvironmental E mergency D ose I nformation M ulti-model P ackage Numerical Simulation System for Environmental Studies: SPEEDI-MP Research Group for Environmental Science, Japan Atomic Energy Agency
Development of SPEEDI-MP 2/18 Simulations in a multiple environment Changes and needs of the society • Diversification of nuclear activities and complication of release conditions � Advance in nuclear fuel cycle, increase of nuclear facilities in East Asia, and so on • General environmental problems to be solved by science and technology � water cycle problems (desertification, tidal wave), global warming, and so on Use of results (Nuclear problems) Expansion: elucidation of the behavior of • Nuclear emergency responses in an early stage and environmental surveys in materials in a multiple environment middle/late stages • International collaboration on accidents of Atmospheric model environmental pollution Dispersion, Transfer • Responses to environmental problems Mixing, deposition peculiar to the Japan Sea Exchange of heat, materials and so on Ripple effects (general problems) • Water cycle problems Transfer Flowing-out � Simulations on possibility/effects of tree-planting in deserts Mixing, Settling Leaching � Simulations on storm surges/waves • Global warming Oceanic model Terrestrial model � Study on CO 2 exchange in forests
Development of SPEEDI-MP 3/18 Structure of the system SPEEDI-MP （ Multi-Model Package ） Development of SPEEDI-MP for nuclear problems File server Database � Numerical models Met. data GIS data Output Physical models Calculation server Numerical models Dispersion models Dispersion � Model coupling Dispersion Water cycle & dispersion Coupling Atmosphere � Utility tools Web-GUI Ocean wave Land surface Visualization Ocean Hydrology Application to environmental problems Dispersion Dispersion � Water problems Control server User interface � Climate change Execution, Visualization, Web-GUI, etc .
Development of SPEEDI-MP 4/18 Coupled water cycle model Atmosphere model MM5 （ NCAR ） Wind, temp., rain, etc. Wave model Land-surface model WW3 （ NOAA ） SOLVEG （ JAEA ） Wave height, propagation Heat, water exchange Coupler Ocean model Hydrology model POM （ Princeton Univ. ） RIVERS （ JAEA ） Current, temp. salinity 3-D movement of water [Interactions] MM5: wind, pressure ⇒ POM: current, elevation WW3: wave generation surface met. field ⇒ SOLVEG: upper boundary condition WW3: wave break stress ⇒ POM: current MM5: surface roughness POM: current, SST ⇒ WW3: wave generation MM5: SST SOLVEG: surface fluxes ⇒ MM5: boundary condition RIVERS: surface water RIVERS: land water movement ⇒ SOLVEG: run-off POM: river flow Realization of complete atmosphere, land, ocean dynamical coupling
Development of SPEEDI-MP 5/18 Application of coupled water cycle model � Simulation of storm surge caused by Hurricane Katrina in Aug. 2005. [Visualization] MM5: surface wind, cloud, POM: sea surface elevation Coupling MM5 WW3 POM Elevation 5 m 0 m
Development of SPEEDI-MP 6/18 Application of coupled water cycle model � Coupled model simulated the storm surge successfully. � Calculation was improved by considering wave effect. ⇒ Validation of the atmosphere, ocean-wave, and ocean-current coupling ＋ ： Measurement Hurricane track － ： MM5-WW3-POM coupling － ： MM5-POM coupling 2.5 2.0 ● 29 12:00 1.5 水位 (m) ○ 1.0 × ● 29 0:00 0.5 波浪結合の効 Wave effect ● 28 12:00 果 0.0 ● 28 0:00 -0.5 New Orleans 00:00 06:00 12:00 18:00 00:00 06:00 12:00 28 29 Passage of Hurricane
Development of SPEEDI-MP 7/18 Application of coupled water cycle model “Advanced Numerical Model System and Countermeasure Technology for Regional- and Meso-scale Water Cycle” by Kyoto Univ. and MHI [Objectives] Research Area � Development of regional climate model (mountainous region to combine engineering and agriculture in south-west fields Saudi Arabia) � Prediction of water cycle change by wide greening [Subject of JAEA] � Development of models for air- vegetation-soil exchanges Cloud � Development of model coupler Rain (increase) � Coupling of air, sea, and land models Flow out Moist flow (little impact) Planting (Fog deposition) Evapotranspiration (increase) Desert greening plan of this study: Greening Acceleration of local water circulation Surface water Red Sea (increase) Runoff
Development of SPEEDI-MP 8/18 Application of coupled water cycle model � Simulation of flash flood after heavy rainfall at desert area (Nagai et al. 2005) ⇒ Validation of atmosphere, land-surface, and hydrology coupling MM5-SOLVEG-RIVERS coupling Satellite image MM5: wind field, cloud, rain 20 Jan. ： Before rain RIVERS: surface water 24 Jan.: After rain Simulated and observed flood area
Development of SPEEDI-MP 9/18 Five model coupling test MM5 (3-domain nesting) [MM5] � DOM1,2 ： Grid 100 × 100 × 23 DX= 9, 3km DT= 27, 9s � DOM3 ： Grid 130 × 130 × 23 DX= 1km DT= 3s [SOLVEG, RIVERS] � Same as MM5-DOM3DT= 6s [POM, WW3] � Grid 26 × 54 × 21 DX= 3km DT= 60s SOLVEG, RIVERS coupling Data exchange: time step of each model Naka river basin Kuji river basin JAEA POM, WW3 coupling
Development of SPEEDI-MP 10/18 Five model coupling test 03JST- 27DEC 06JST-27DEC 18JST- 26DEC 21JST-27DEC 09JST-28DEC 09JST-27DEC [Test case] Swelling of Naka and Kuji rivers after heavy rainfall on 26-27 Dec. 2006 [Visualization] MM5: surface wind field, 3-D rain water, SOLVEG: surface water, RIVERS: river flow rate, POM: salinity (decrease by flesh water from river ）
Development of SPEEDI-MP 11/18 Five model coupling test Comparison with AMeDAS rain 50 All point, time 40 obs cal Daigo Calculation (mm/h) 50 50 30 40 40 Rain (mm/h) 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 6 12 18 24 6 12 18 24 0 12月26日 12月27日 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time (JST) Observation (mm/h) Utsunomiya obs cal Otawara obs cal 50 50 50 50 40 40 40 40 Rain (mm/h) Rain (mm/h) 30 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 6 12 18 24 6 12 18 24 6 12 18 24 6 12 18 24 12月26日 12月27日 12月26日 12月27日 Time (JST) Time (JST)
Development of SPEEDI-MP 12/18 Five model coupling test Point 1 Point 2 Point 3 Point 4 ○ : measurement ― : calculation River flow at Naka river
Development of SPEEDI-MP 13/18 Coupled water cycle & dispersion model Atmosphere model Dispersion model MM5 （ NCAR ） GEARN （ JAEA ） Wind, temp., rain, etc. Air conc., deposition, dose Wave model Land-surface model WW3 （ NOAA ） SOLVEG （ JAEA ） Wave height, propagation Heat, water exchange Coupler Ocean model Hydrology-transport model POM （ Princeton Univ. ） RIVERS （ JAEA ） Current, temp. salinity 3-D movement of material Dispersion model SEA-GEARN （ JAEA ） [Interactions] Conc., dose MM5: 3-D met. Field ⇒ GEARN: dispersion, deposition rain, water flux ⇒ RIVERS: upper boundary condition, re-emission GEARN: particle transport ⇒ GEARN: particle in/out deposition ⇒ RIVERS: particle input to surface RIVERS: surface conc., re-emission ⇒ GEARN: deposition change, re-emission Coupled calculation of 2-way exchange between atmosphere and land
Development of SPEEDI-MP 14/18 Coupled dispersion model MM5 (3-domain nesting) [MM5] � DOM1,2 ： Grid 100 × 100 × 23 GEARN-W DX= 9, 3km DT= 27, 9s � DOM3 ： Grid 130 × 130 × 23 DX= 1km DT= 3s [RIVERS] � Same as MM5-DOM3, DT= 6s [GEARN-W/GEARN-N] � Same as MM5-DOM2/3, DT= 9/3s GEARN-N ・ RIVERS MM5 COUPLER GEARN Dom1 ： DT=27 s GEARN-W ： DT=9 s 9 s (90 s) 2-way Particle 90 s Dom2 ： DT=9 s GEARN-N ： DT=3 s Met. 2-way Re-emission Deposition 90 s 90 s Dom3 ： DT=3 s 6 s RIVERS ： DT=6 s
Development of SPEEDI-MP 15/18 HTO re-emission process (deposition) RIVERS ： Particle dispersion Particle generation ： based on deposition COUPLER ・ Put particle at soil surface Deposition ・ Add radioactivity to each particle Particle transport ： ・ Transport with water (dissolved) GEARN ： Particle dispersion ・ 3-D movement at surface, soil, river ・ Decrease of radioactivity by decay Canopy Surface 1st Soil layer
Development of SPEEDI-MP 16/18 HTO re-emission process (re-emission) RIVERS ： Particle dispersion Accumulate for exchange step (90s) Re-emission rate for each step （6s）: COUPLER FQ= ∑ i Q(i) × r(i) ・・・ accumulate for Re-emission rate re-emission area Q(i) ： radioactivity of each particles r(i)=q/v ： emission rate for each particle GEARN ： Particle dispersion q ： water vapor to atmosphere ← MM5 v ： water content q v Canopy q s v v Re-emission v s area Surface q l v l Release particle at each cell for Surface layer every exchange step (90s) 1st Soil layer (1cm: temporally) (1 particle for each: temporally)
Development of SPEEDI-MP 17/18 HTO re-emission calculation No re-emission Re-emission [Test calculation] Fictitious release Air conc. Point: N36.8 ° E140.0 ° Height: 50m Term: 27DEC00UTC ～ 6h Radionuclide: HTO Release rate: 10 13 Bq/h Calculation period: 27DEC2006 ～ 31DEC Deposition (Met. cal.: 24DEC ～ ) NW wind is continued after heavy rainfall [Visualization] MM5: surface wind vector GEARN: air concentration, deposition
Recommend
More recommend
