Development Evaluation U d Understanding the Market t di th M - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
development evaluation u d understanding the market t di
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Development Evaluation U d Understanding the Market t di th M - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 14, 2022 122 likes •740 views

Development Evaluation U d Understanding the Market t di th M k t 2014 Virginia Planning Conference g g July 21, 2014 Melina Duggal, Senior Principal SESSION PROGRAM DESCRIPTION The purpose of the session is to help planners

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Development Evaluation – U d t di th M k t Understanding the Market

2014 Virginia Planning Conference g g

July 21, 2014

Melina Duggal, Senior Principal

slide-2
SLIDE 2

SESSION PROGRAM DESCRIPTION

The purpose of the session is to help planners evaluate f development submissions from a market perspective. The session will help planners identify the types

  • f

data necessary to understand the market what to look for in necessary to understand the market, what to look for in development applications, and analyze the data and proposal to determine if it is realistic and market-feasible proposal to determine if it is realistic and market feasible. We will look at real applications and go through how to evaluate them from a market perspective. p p

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW – AGENDA

  • Introduction to Market Analysis
  • Economic and Demographic Analysis
  • Subject Site Analysis
  • Competitive Supply Analysis
  • Demand Analysis
  • Development Recommendations
  • Outside the Conventional Market Analysis

y

  • Examples

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

WHAT IS A MARKET ANALYSIS?

  • Examination
  • f

subject property/area in context

  • f

broader market trends

  • Analysis of supply and demand factors
  • Market-driven recommendations and programming

120% 6,000 60% 80% 100% 3,000 4,000 5,000 0% 20% 40% 1,000 2,000 Single-Family Permits Multifamily Permits % Single-Family Permits

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

WHEN DO YOU NEED MARKET ANALYSIS?

  • Verify existing products/program
  • Achievable pricing and absorption
  • Due diligence
  • Third-party project financing
  • Land planning and revitalization
  • Highest and best use
  • Long-term site planning

g p g

  • Reposition existing developments

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

5

slide-6
SLIDE 6

TRADITIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS APPROACH

Initial Concept Plans

Rigorous Market Analysis

Initial Concept Plans Economic & Precedent Supply Envisioning & Site Analysis Economic & Demographic Analysis; Market Trends Precedent Analysis (Case Studies)

  • r Trends

Supply And Demand Analysis Synthesis & Analysis Market-Driven Investment Strategy

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

6

slide-7
SLIDE 7

FORMULATING THE HYPOTHESIS

  • What land uses should the market study focus on?
  • What market assumptions need to be tested?
  • What site challenges need to be overcome?

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

7

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Economic and Demographic Analysis

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

8

slide-9
SLIDE 9

BIG PICTURE QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

  • Where are we located on the economic cycle? Nationally

? and locally?

  • Is current growth supported by solid fundamentals?
  • How are demographics shifting nationally and locally?
  • Where is growth occurring? What are its drivers?

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

WHERE ARE WE LOCATED ON THE ECONOMIC CYCLE? NATIONALLY AND LOCALLY? CYCLE? NATIONALLY AND LOCALLY?

LAND

FUTURE CYCLE

OFFICE IND LAND FOR- SALE

CYCLE STAGE

[+12 MONTHS]

APT 2ND RESORT HOTEL RETAIL AAC HOTEL RETAIL OFFICE LAND FOR- SALE APT IND 2ND RESORT

CURRENT CYCLE STAGE

AAC

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

ECONOMIC TRENDS

  • Employment growth
  • Location of employment cores
  • Major employers
  • Major industries
  • Industries that are growing/declining
  • Economic development initiatives

223,600 276,110 120,700 175,000 188,420 277,525 366,000 519,700 684,100 992,770 119,600 143,800 165,600 196,500 , 205 800

Government Services Trans/Utilities Manufacturing

90,500 121,700 154,700 210,190 134,200 142,075 148,400 165,300 127,400 127,740 217,275 252,800 305,500 374,200 286,900 346,490 84,100 205,800

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2014

Services F.I.R.E. Trade Manufacturing Construction/Mining

Moody’s www.economy.com US Gov’t www.bls.gov

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

MANY DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THE FUTURE

Forecasted Household Growth Washington-Alexandria-Arlington, D.C.-VA-MD, MSA g g , , 1980-2040

40 000 45,000 "Housing the Region's Future Workforce" Report 30,000 35,000 40,000 COG Historical 15 000 20,000 25,000 Moody's ESRI 5,000 10,000 15,000 A l H h ld G th

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

12

Annual Household Growth

slide-13
SLIDE 13

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

  • Household and population

growth

  • Income distribution
  • Household age by income
  • Household size and types
  • Ownership and renter

propensity

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

13

slide-14
SLIDE 14

ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC SOURCES

  • Claritas:

www.claritas.com

  • ESRI:

www.esri.com

  • American Fact Finder:

www.factfinder2.census.gov

  • Local COG, TPO
  • BLS:

www.bls.gov

  • Moodys:

www.economy.com

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

14

slide-15
SLIDE 15

WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN ECO-DEMO

  • Who is doing the projections—are they reasonable?
  • Does the product type match the current and future

projections for the area?

  • Age
  • Income

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

15

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Subject Site Analysis

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

SUBJECT SITE CHARACTERISTICS

  • Size, topography, layout,

and constraints

  • Surrounding land uses
  • Proximity to employment

and services

  • Area prestige/reputation
  • Access, visibility, and

frontage

  • Planned infrastructure

i t

Result: Determination of i t f th it f th

improvements

appropriateness of the site for the potential use or uses in the context

  • f the universe of alternatives

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

17

slide-18
SLIDE 18

SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths: Site/area characteristics that promote development Weaknesses: Site/area characteristics that present challenges Opportunities: Preliminary market opportunities based upon site Preliminary market opportunities based upon site analysis Threats: Competitive threat assessment

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

18

slide-19
SLIDE 19

WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN SUBJECT SITE ANALYSIS ANALYSIS

  • Typically qualitative
  • Does the hypothesis match what you believe about the site

and/or area?

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Competitive Supply Analysis

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

20

slide-21
SLIDE 21

WHAT ARE WE RESEARCHING?

Current and future supply conditions:

  • Performance of existing,

l t j t relevant projects

  • Price trends
  • Historical sales/absorption

rates

  • Future development

pipeline

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

21

slide-22
SLIDE 22

WHAT ARE WE TRYING TO ANSWER?

Understand appropriate positioning and orientation:

  • How is the market segmented?

Wh t th d i t What are the dominant consumer preferences? L ti lit d t t d ff

  • Location, quality, product trade-offs

in the marketplace What are the subject site’s

  • What are the subject site’s

competitive advantages and disadvantages in this marketplace? disadvantages in this marketplace?

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

22

slide-23
SLIDE 23

COLLECTING DATA – SECONDARY

  • Residential: Home sales, permits, absorption, rent
  • Commercial: Vacancy, rents, absorption

Residential Building Permits in Prince William County

100% 120% 5,000 6,000

2000-2013

60% 80% 3,000 4,000 , 0% 20% 40% 1,000 2,000 0% Single-Family Permits Multifamily Permits % Single-Family Permits

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

23

slide-24
SLIDE 24

COMPETITIVE MARKET AREA (CMA) ( )

Competitive Market Area (CMA): Geographical area within f which the subject site will directly compete for consumers/tenants G hi l i it

  • Geographical proximity
  • Quality

2 3

  • Market orientation

1 4

MAP KEY Ice House 1 Ice House Lofts 3 Reflections

  • 1,229 SF
  • $244 / SF
  • 1,033 SF
  • $217 / SF

2 Stone Curves 4 Sonoran Palms

  • 1,000 SF
  • $222 / SF
  • 817 SF
  • $124 / SF

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

24

$222 / SF $124 / SF

slide-25
SLIDE 25

EXAMPLE: PRICING ADJUSTMENT MATRIX

RCLCO Unit Mix and Pricing Recommendation Compared to Market Comparables p p October 2013

RCLCO RECOMMENDATION Metro 303 West 130

  • Avg. Avg. Avg.
  • Avg. Avg. Avg. Subj. Site
  • Avg. Avg. Avg. Subj. Site

Product g Rent g SF g $/SF g Rent g SF g $/SF j Discount g Rent g SF g $/SF j Discount Studio 1,475 475 $3.11 1,925 623 $3.09 $450 Small One Bedroom 1,825 613 $2.98 2,328 853 $2.73 $502 2,343 844 $2.65 $517 Bedroom 1,825 613 $2.98 2,328 853 $2.73 $502 2,343 844 $2.65 $517 Larger One Bedroom 1,950 675 $2.89 2,565 987 $2.60 $615 2,620 982 $2.56 $670 One Bedroom + Den 2 038 800 $2 55 2 650 1 121 $2 37 $612 2 793 1 129 $2 36 $755 Den 2,038 800 $2.55 2,650 1,121 $2.37 $612 2,793 1,129 $2.36 $755 Smaller Two Bedroom 2,250 925 $2.43 3,025 1,276 $2.37 $775 3,153 1,279 $2.37 $902 Larger Two Bedroom 2 450 1 038 $2 36 3 375 1 454 $2 32 $925 3 418 1 345 $2 43 $967 Bedroom 2,450 1,038 $2.36 3,375 1,454 $2.32 $925 3,418 1,345 $2.43 $967

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

25

slide-26
SLIDE 26

EXAMPLE: PRICE-SIZE-RELATIONSHIP SHOWN GRAPHICALLY GRAPHICALLY

$3,000,000 $2,500,000 S UBJ E CT S ITE 3000th Th Pl (Hi h Ri ) $2,000,000 rice 3000th The Plaza (High-Rise) The Plaza (High-Rise) $1,000,000 $1,500,000 Bas e Pr Marquee Park Place (High-Rise) $500,000 Avenue One (Low-Rise) City Place (Low-Rise) $0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Unit S ize (S F) y ( )

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

26

slide-27
SLIDE 27

FOR-SALE RESIDENTIAL

Secondary Market Data

Historical and Projected Vacancy Rates in the

  • Mt. Pleasant and North Charleston Submarkets
  • Historical permit activity
  • New home sales data

12% 14% 16%

  • Resale market data

Sources

8% 10% 12%

Sources Permits: www.socds.huduser.gov/led

2% 4% 6%

Market Data: www.hwmarketintelligence.com Resales: www redfin com

0% 2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 12 (P) 13 (P) 14 (P) 15 (P) 16 (P)

Resales: www.redfin.com www.dataquick.com Foreclosures: www.realtytrac.com

20 20 20 20 20 Hanahan/North Charleston Mount Pleasant

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

27

y

Source: REIS

slide-28
SLIDE 28

RETAIL / OFFICE

Secondary Market Data

Retail Quoted Rental Rates and Vacancy Northeast/Southwest Submarket

  • Total inventory
  • Vacancy rates

2006-2011

  • Absorption
  • New construction and

pipeline

  • Average rents and rate

growth

Sources

Source: CoStar

www.reis.com www.costar.com www loopnet com

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

www.loopnet.com

28

slide-29
SLIDE 29

HOTEL

Secondary Market Data

75% 78% 75% 76% 80% $235

  • Total inventory
  • Occupancy Rate

174 94 197.48 70% 67% 71% 70% $185 $235

  • New key absorption
  • New construction and

150.20 136.88 137.84 144.20 153.93 174.94 131.43 151.86 50% 60% $135 $185 cupancy er of Rooms

pipeline

  • Seasonality

105.50 92.39 97.26 107.91 119.97 40% $85 $ 35 Occ Numbe

  • Rates

20% 30% $35

Sources www.str.com

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Occupancy

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

29

Occupancy

slide-30
SLIDE 30

DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE

Market analysis needs to f

Palamanui

be forward-looking

  • Sources of information on

i li

725 acres; 1,100 units (20% affordable)

pipeline:

  • Secondary data sources

O’oma ( ) 950 t 1 200

  • Newspaper and

newsletter articles

950 to 1,200 units, including affordable

  • Planning departments
  • Interviews with

b k /d l

QLT

brokers/developers

3,500 acres; potential for residential units

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

30

slide-31
SLIDE 31

WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN COMPETITIVE SUPPLY ANALYSIS ANALYSIS

  • Are the projects “cherry picked”?
  • Are the adjustments to the subject site reasonable?
  • Are the projects in close proximity to the subject site and/or

share characteristics?

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

31

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Demand Analysis

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

32

slide-33
SLIDE 33

ROLE OF DEMAND ANALYSIS

  • Provide a quantitative, forward-looking context to the

competitive market analysis

  • Identifying underserved markets where pent-up demand

i t may exist

  • Describe the assumptions one must believe in order to

j tif j t d justify projected success

  • Only as useful as the quality of the demographic data and

information on consumer preferences information on consumer preferences

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

33

slide-34
SLIDE 34

PRIMARY MARKET AREA (PMA) ( )

Define the Primary Market ( ) Area (PMA):

  • Varies considerably by

d t t product type

  • Determined by a variety of

f t i l di factors, including access (including drive times) and visibility location of

Primary Market Area

visibility, location of competitors, target market demographics, etc. g p ,

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

34

slide-35
SLIDE 35

SOURCES OF DEMAND

Residential

  • Household growth
  • Qualified by income
  • Age and move-down percentages
  • Tenure shifts
  • Turnover rate
  • Consumer preferences

p

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

35

slide-36
SLIDE 36

SOURCES OF DEMAND

Retail

  • Household growth
  • Income
  • Household expenditures
  • Expenditures by store and

center type

  • Effects of internet
  • Sales/SF thresholds

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

36

slide-37
SLIDE 37

SOURCES OF DEMAND

Office/Industrial

Historical Office Absorption

  • Employment growth
  • Industry distribution

YEAR ABSORPTION (SF) 2012 66,009 2011 26 750

  • Distribution of jobs into space
  • SF per new job

2011 26,750 2010 2009 20,000 2008 85,749 2007 24,000 2006 68,216 2005 184,487 2004 35 959 2004 35,959 2003 35,133 2002 92,428 2001 114,723 2000 25,520 Average 59,921

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

37

slide-38
SLIDE 38

DEMAND METHODOLOGY – OFFICE

OFFICE MARKET

SE VALLEY

OFFICE MARKET MSA ECONOMIC GROWTH TRENDS

MSA DEMAND OUTLOOK SE VALLEY CAPTURE Assume 17 35%

MARKET OPPORTUNITY OUTLOOK Historical & Projected Total Employment

Projected Job Growth in Office-Using 17-35% Capture Rate Address Area- S ifi J b

Vacancy Rate Annual Absorption Employment Growth COMPETITIVE SUPPLY

g Sectors Specific Job Growth and Office Demand

New Construction Demand

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

38

slide-39
SLIDE 39

DEMAND METHODOLOGY – RESIDENTIAL

Total Households in Charleston MSA Market Audience Young Professionals Families Empty-Nesters Retirees % Own vs. Rent Qualified Potential Home Values YP Owner HHs Family Owner HHs EN Owner HHs Retiree Owner HHs % $200K – $300K $300K – $400K $150K – $200K < $150K $400K – $500K $500K – $1M $1M + Annual HH Growth % Owner HHs in Turnover $300K $400K $200K $ $500K $1M $ Total New Homes Sales in the MSA Annual HH Growth % Owner HHs in Turnover % Choose New Homes

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

39

Total New Homes Sales in the MSA

slide-40
SLIDE 40

CAPTURE RATES

The “art” that drives the analysis

  • Factors:
  • Historical capture trends
  • Projected supply—what is the fair share?
  • Competitive advantages and challenges
  • f the subject site
  • Uniqueness of the project

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

40

slide-41
SLIDE 41

WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN DEMAND ANALYSIS

  • Geographic area
  • Capture rate
  • Growth rates (households or employment)
  • % new
  • % turnover

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

41

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Development Recommendations

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

42

slide-43
SLIDE 43

THE END PRODUCT

  • (Highest and) Best land

( )

  • Orientation and target

use(s)

  • Positioning – prices

consumer

  • Features and amenities
  • Absorption/Sales

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

43

slide-44
SLIDE 44

THE END PRODUCT (EXAMPLE) ( )

DU/ Total Unit Total Avg Avg Price/ Land Use DU/ Acre Total Units Unit Mix Total Acres Size Range Avg. Size Price Range

  • Avg. Price
  • Avg. Price/

Sqft Residential Rowhomes 12.0 40 32% 3.3 1,800- 2,600 2,200 $280,000- $360,000 $320,000 $145 Stacked Flats 24.0 40 32% 1.7 1,300- 2,000 1,600 $195,000- $325,000 $280,000 $175 Condos Above Retail 14.0 20 16% 1.4 900- 1,500 1,300 $185,000- $275,000 $250,000 $192 $ $ $ $ Live/Work 10.0 5 4% 0.5 1,800- 2,300 2,050 $270,000- $365,000 $335,000 $163 High-Density Detached 6.0 20 16% 3.3 2,200- 3,000 2,600 $400,000- $600,000 $525,000 $202 Total/Average 15.1 125 100% 10.3 900- 3,000 1,922 $185,000- $600,000 $329,400 $171 Land Use Absorption Schedule Commercial FAR Total SF Unit Mix Total Acres Land Use Absorption Schedule Residential 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Rowhomes 10 10 10 10 Stacked Flats 6 6 15 13 Condos Above Retail 8 6 6 Live/Work 2 1 1 1 Commercial FAR Total SF Mix Acres Office Above Retail (Creative) 1.0 25,000 12% 0.6 Professional/Medical Office 0.5 25,000 12% 1.1 Freestanding Retail 0.75 55,000 26% 1.7 Retail Below Residential 0.5 25,000 12%

  • Hotel (120 Keys)*

0.5 85,000 40% 2.0 High-Density Detached 5 5 5 5 Total/Average 10 23 29 28 21 14 Total/Average 215,000 100% 5.4 Civic/Other Total Acres Civic/Library/Performing Arts 1.5 Park 2 0 Park 2.0 Circulation 3.5 Total/Average 7.0 Total Acres 22.7

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

44

slide-45
SLIDE 45

WHAT TO WATCH FOR IN RECOMMENDATIONS

  • Does the data lead to the conclusions?
  • Positioning and pace

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

45

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Outside the Conventional Market Analysis

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

46

slide-47
SLIDE 47

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

  • Does the conventional market study provide enough

? direction in an uncertain and challenging environment?

  • Often the answer is “No”
  • Need additional tools, deeper analysis, and more distinct

and targeted development recommendations. Additional Tools

  • Case Studies (www.casestudies.uli.org, www.cnu.org)
  • Consumer Research
  • Fiscal Impact Analysis

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

47

slide-48
SLIDE 48

USING OTHER MARKET ANALYSIS TOOLS

Fewer “no-brainers”

  • Sprawl and slow/no growth policies
  • Infill and redevelopment
  • Mixed-use and neo-traditional

projects

  • Mixing in affordable and workforce

housing

  • Dealing in markets with few comps
  • Need to learn from successes and

failures elsewhere

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

48

slide-49
SLIDE 49

USING OTHER MARKET ANALYSIS TOOLS

Shifting consumer preferences

  • Powerful demographic shifts—Baby Boomers, Gen X,

Gen Y

  • Changing product preferences—distinct residential

housing types, lifestyle shopping, changing preferences f ffi

  • f office users
  • Demand statistics and knowing the competitive supply

are not enough are not enough

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

49

slide-50
SLIDE 50

PROJECT CASE STUDIES

  • Very useful if project is first of its

/ kind in a particular area/region

  • Understanding market acceptance,

iti l f t iti l critical success factors, critical failures, and lessons learned L f th k t ’t

  • Lessons from other markets can’t

be blindly applied—every site and project is unique project is unique

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

50

slide-51
SLIDE 51

CONSUMER RESEARCH

Age of Respondents Considering Moving to a Mixed-Use Suburban Neighborhood Greater Jackson Region, MS 2014

These people share the same demographic i

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 SFD

g ,

grouping: 35–54 years old $100 000+

Duplex Townhome Madison Region Overall

$100,000+ College education

Condo Apartment Overall

What’s Missing: Deeper understanding of target market segments:

Most Desirable Less Desirable

What’s Missing: Deeper understanding of target market segments:

  • Demand for new products, amenities, features
  • Consumer input to design, pricing, advertising, and marketing

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

51

p g , p g, g, g

slide-52
SLIDE 52

AUGMENT WITH CONSUMER RESEARCH

Research competitor projects Conduct case studies Estimate demand Plan for future phases of j t Development projects project

Survey target buyers to:

  • Determine depth of demand

Track traffic to:

  • Understand

Focus group targets to test & refine proposed

  • Determine depth of demand
  • Optimize product design
  • Test product pricing

customers

  • Evaluate advertising

effectiveness

concepts

  • Understand neighborhood and

community preferences

  • Generate sales leads
  • Identify new targets

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

52

slide-53
SLIDE 53

FISCAL IMPACT STUDIES

Development Program Incorporate project’s development Incorporate project’s development program. Recurring Expenditures U i th M i l d A C t Recurring Revenues U i th P j t A l i h Using the Marginal and Average Cost methods, project recurring expenditures generated by project at full build-out. Using the Project Analysis approach, project recurring revenues generated by project at full build-out. Net Fiscal Impact Compare projected revenues and expenditures at full build-out on the City General Fund.

  • Growing resistance in many jurisdictions to fiscally-negative development—

primarily residential communities

  • Help understand which land uses or combinations of uses are fiscally

e p u de sta d c a d uses o co b at o s o uses a e sca y positive

  • Tremendous benefit in pre-development land planning—removing approvals
  • bstacles before they occur

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

  • bstacles before they occur

53

slide-54
SLIDE 54

Examples

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

54

slide-55
SLIDE 55

CHESAPEAKE

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

55

slide-56
SLIDE 56

LOUDOUN COUNTY

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

56

slide-57
SLIDE 57

ROANOKE

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

57

slide-58
SLIDE 58

FAIRFAX COUNTY

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

58

slide-59
SLIDE 59

RETAIL

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

59

slide-60
SLIDE 60

MULTIFAMILY

2014 VIRGINIA PLANNING CONFERENCE | July 21, 2014

60

slide-61
SLIDE 61

Melina Duggal Senior Principal Ph (240) 644 1307 Phone: (240) 644-1307 mduggal@rclco.com RCLCO 7200 Wisconsin Avenue Suite 1110 Bethesda, MD 20814 Phone: (240) 644-1300 www.rclco.com