NPCC 2019-2020 Winter Outlook NE Electric/Gas Operations Committee - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NPCC 2019-2020 Winter Outlook

NE Electric/Gas Operations Committee December 9, 2019

NPCC Resource Adequacy Projections Winter 2019-20

NPCC Region

• The coincident peak demand of 109,163 MW is forecast to occur on week

beginning January 19 with a net margin of 19 percent. This is slightly less than last winter’s net margin of 19.8 percent.

• The Extreme forecasted demand is 116,067 MW with net margin of 12
• percent. This is slightly less than last winter’s margin of 12.9 percent.
• Forecasted on-peak Installed Capacity is 167,391 MW with Total Capacity of

171,025 MW. This is 363 MW higher than last winter’s Total Capacity.

• Interruptible Load programs are forecasted to provide 2,377 MW of load
• reduction. This is approximately the same as last winter’s value.
• Maintenance and Unplanned Outage allotments range from 33 to 39 GW

throughout the winter capacity period. This increase in last winter’s Maintenance and Outage allotments (31 to 37 GW) accounts for the slightly less net margin than last winter.

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NPCC Area Estimated Use of Operating Procedures

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HQ MT NE NY ON HQ MT NE NY ON Expected Load Level Extreme Load Level

Activation of DR/SCR 0.016

• 0.001

0.232

• 0.016

Reduce 30-min Reserve

• 1.836
• 0.006

11.308

• 0.001

Initiate Interruptible Loads/Voltage Reduction 1

• 1.005
• 7.174
• Reduce 10-min Reserve 2
• 0.135
• 1.345
• Appeals
• 0.018
• 0.216
• Disconnect Load
• 0.018
• 0.216
• Base Case Assumptions – November 2019 through March

2020 (days/period)

NE EGOC Meeting

NPCC Winter Readiness

• Reliability Coordinator (RC) Communications:
• Daily – discuss and alert NPCC and neighboring RCs of any potential or emerging problems
• Weekly – review a seven-day outlook for the Region, including contingencies, margins and weather,

and to ensure future system changes (generation and transmission) outages are coordinated

• Conduct NPCC Emergency Preparedness Calls when needed and periodic tests per procedures
• The NPCC TFCO is reviewing the findings and recommendations of the 2019 FERC-NERC

Staff Report, The South Central United States Cold Weather Bulk Electric System Event of January 17, 2018, to determine appropriate follow-up actions

• NPCC Task Forces and Working Groups support continued reliable operations through

reviewing and assessing the performance of the bulk power system

• Support regional Electric-Gas Operations reliability coordination efforts promoting

communication, awareness and information sharing

12/9/2019 4 NE EGOC Meeting

NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20

Maritimes – Key Findings

• The Maritimes Area does not anticipate any operational issues. If an event was

to occur, there are Emergency Operations and Planning procedures in place.

• No significant transmission issues are expected for this winter.
• As part of our planning process, dual-fueled units will have sufficient supplies
• f HFO on-site to enable sustained operation in the event of natural gas supply

interruptions.

• An additional 18 MW of wind is expected by Q1 of 2020.

12/9/2019 5 NE EGOC Meeting

NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20

New England - Key Findings

• New England is forecasting adequate resources to meet the normal peak

demand for the 2019-20 winter period.

• Natural Gas Deliverability - ISO-NE continues to monitor factors impacting natural

gas deliverability throughout the winter reliability assessment period.

• Fuel Security - ISO-NE’s periodic 21-day Energy Assessment provides market

participants with early indication of potential fuel scarcity conditions and helps inform fuel procurement decisions.

• Market Incentives for Winter 2019-2020
• Energy Market Opportunity Cost - Improves resource-specific mitigation procedures by

calculating an estimated daily opportunity cost for oil and dual fuel resources with limitations on energy production over a 7-day horizon.

• Pay for Performance - Ensures that both supply and demand-side capacity resources

have appropriate market-based incentives that results in enhanced system reliability.

12/9/2019 6 NE EGOC Meeting

NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20

New York – Key Findings

• The NYISO does not anticipate any operational issues for Winter 2019-20.
• There is a risk that gas fired generation without firm delivery contracts may

be unavailable during extreme extended cold weather scenarios. This amounts to an approximate reduction of 5,232 MW of installed capacity. As a result, the projected net margin would drop from 11,432 MW (47.4%) to 6,200 MW (25.7%).

• Operator Control Room Situational Awareness
• Interstate pipeline system real-time conditions displayed
• Fuel conditions continuously monitored

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NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20

Ontario - Key Findings

• No operational issues are anticipated for the 2019-20 winter assessment period.

Ontario expects to have sufficient resources to maintain reliability.

• As per the provisions of Unit Readiness Program, the IESO tests their generator

resources to ensure they are available and operable.

• IESO meets periodically with interconnected natural gas pipeline

representatives to discuss expected operational challenges in the upcoming peak season including forecasted extreme weather events.

• As part of the electricity trade agreement between Ontario and Quebec,

Ontario will supply 500 MW of capacity to Quebec for the 2019-20 winter assessment period.

12/9/2019 8 NE EGOC Meeting

NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20

Québec - Key Findings

• No operational issues are anticipated for the 2019-20 winter assessment period

and the forecasted margins are acceptable.

• A new 735 kV line (250 miles/400 km) between Chamouchouane substation and

Montréal area now in service improves the reliability of the system

12/9/2019 9 NE EGOC Meeting

December 2019– February 2020 NOAA Forecast

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November 2019 - January 2020 Environment Canada Forecast

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