NPCC 2019-2020 Winter Outlook NE Electric/Gas Operations Committee December 9, 2019
NPCC Resource Adequacy Projections Winter 2019-20 NPCC Region The coincident peak demand of 109,163 MW is forecast to occur on week beginning January 19 with a net margin of 19 percent . This is slightly less than last winter’s net margin of 19.8 percent . The Extreme forecasted demand is 116,067 MW with net margin of 12 percent . This is slightly less than last winter’s margin of 12.9 percent . Forecasted on-peak Installed Capacity is 167,391 MW with Total Capacity of 171,025 MW . This is 363 MW higher than last winter’s Total Capacity. Interruptible Load programs are forecasted to provide 2,377 MW of load reduction. This is approximately the same as last winter’s value. Maintenance and Unplanned Outage allotments range from 33 to 39 GW throughout the winter capacity period. This increase in last winter’s Maintenance and Outage allotments ( 31 to 37 GW ) accounts for the slightly less net margin than last winter. 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 2
NPCC Area Estimated Use of Operating Procedures HQ MT NE NY ON HQ MT NE NY ON Expected Load Level Extreme Load Level Activation of DR/SCR 0.016 - - - 0.001 0.232 - - - 0.016 Reduce 30-min Reserve - 1.836 - - - 0.006 11.308 - - 0.001 Initiate Interruptible - - - - 1.005 - - - - 7.174 Loads/Voltage Reduction 1 Reduce 10-min Reserve 2 - 0.135 - - - - 1.345 - - - Appeals - 0.018 - - - - 0.216 - - - Disconnect Load - 0.018 - - - - 0.216 - - - Base Case Assumptions – November 2019 through March 2020 (days/period) 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 3
NPCC Winter Readiness Reliability Coordinator (RC) Communications: Daily – discuss and alert NPCC and neighboring RCs of any potential or emerging problems Weekly – review a seven-day outlook for the Region, including contingencies, margins and weather, and to ensure future system changes (generation and transmission) outages are coordinated Conduct NPCC Emergency Preparedness Calls when needed and periodic tests per procedures The NPCC TFCO is reviewing the findings and recommendations of the 2019 FERC-NERC Staff Report, The South Central United States Cold Weather Bulk Electric System Event of January 17, 2018, to determine appropriate follow-up actions NPCC Task Forces and Working Groups support continued reliable operations through reviewing and assessing the performance of the bulk power system Support regional Electric-Gas Operations reliability coordination efforts promoting communication, awareness and information sharing 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 4
NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20 Maritimes – Key Findings The Maritimes Area does not anticipate any operational issues. If an event was to occur, there are Emergency Operations and Planning procedures in place. No significant transmission issues are expected for this winter. As part of our planning process, dual-fueled units will have sufficient supplies of HFO on-site to enable sustained operation in the event of natural gas supply interruptions. An additional 18 MW of wind is expected by Q1 of 2020. 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 5
NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20 New England - Key Findings New England is forecasting adequate resources to meet the normal peak demand for the 2019-20 winter period. Natural Gas Deliverability - ISO-NE continues to monitor factors impacting natural gas deliverability throughout the winter reliability assessment period. Fuel Security - ISO-NE’s periodic 21-day Energy Assessment provides market participants with early indication of potential fuel scarcity conditions and helps inform fuel procurement decisions. Market Incentives for Winter 2019-2020 Energy Market Opportunity Cost - Improves resource-specific mitigation procedures by • calculating an estimated daily opportunity cost for oil and dual fuel resources with limitations on energy production over a 7-day horizon. Pay for Performance - Ensures that both supply and demand-side capacity resources • have appropriate market-based incentives that results in enhanced system reliability. 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 6
NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20 New York – Key Findings The NYISO does not anticipate any operational issues for Winter 2019-20. There is a risk that gas fired generation without firm delivery contracts may be unavailable during extreme extended cold weather scenarios. This amounts to an approximate reduction of 5,232 MW of installed capacity. As a result, the projected net margin would drop from 11,432 MW (47.4%) to 6,200 MW (25.7%). Operator Control Room Situational Awareness • Interstate pipeline system real-time conditions displayed • Fuel conditions continuously monitored 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 7
NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20 Ontario - Key Findings No operational issues are anticipated for the 2019-20 winter assessment period. Ontario expects to have sufficient resources to maintain reliability. As per the provisions of Unit Readiness Program, the IESO tests their generator resources to ensure they are available and operable. IESO meets periodically with interconnected natural gas pipeline representatives to discuss expected operational challenges in the upcoming peak season including forecasted extreme weather events. As part of the electricity trade agreement between Ontario and Quebec, Ontario will supply 500 MW of capacity to Quebec for the 2019-20 winter assessment period. 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 8
NPCC Operational Readiness Winter 2019-20 Québec - Key Findings No operational issues are anticipated for the 2019-20 winter assessment period and the forecasted margins are acceptable. A new 735 kV line (250 miles/400 km) between Chamouchouane substation and Montréal area now in service improves the reliability of the system 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 9
December 2019– February 2020 NOAA Forecast 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 10
November 2019 - January 2020 Environment Canada Forecast 12/9/2019 NE EGOC Meeting 11
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