NorthWestern Energy Public Meeting April 18, 2018 John Bushnell - - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NorthWestern Energy Public Meeting

April 18, 2018

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John Bushnell - Manager of Energy Supply Planning & Regulatory Joe Stimatz - Manager of Asset Optimization

Electric Provider

MONTANA:

• 353,600 customers in 187 communities

SOUTH DAKOTA:

• 62,500 customers in 110 communities

Natural Gas Provider

MONTANA:

• 189,000 customers in 105 communities

NEBRASKA:

• 42,000 customers in 4 communities

SOUTH DAKOTA:

• 45,500 customers in 60 communities

NorthWestern Energy

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Forecast supply need Plan for new gas & electric resources Acquire new supply, balance system Operate & maintain generation fleet Operate electric trading floor

Today’s Focus

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Primary purpose of today’s public forum is to discuss

• Resource needs of NorthWestern’s retail customers.
• Identify resources to be evaluated in NorthWestern’s 2018

Resource Plan.

• The development of the emerging electricity market in the West.

NorthWestern Energy - Resource Planning

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• Resource planning process is defined by law

– “A utility should routinely communicate with the commission and stakeholders regarding portfolio planning and resource procurement activities” – “A utility should use an independent advisory committee of respected technical and public policy experts as a source of upfront, substantive input to mitigate risk and

• ptimize resource procurement outcomes in a manner consistent with these

guidelines.” – “Provide customers adequate and reliable electricity supply services, stably and reasonably priced, at the lowest long-term total cost.”

• Resource planning process (greatly simplified)

– Identify resource needs – Identify resource alternatives – Optimize resource additions to achieve objectives

Load Composition by Customer Class

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Residential and GS-1 Secondary account for approximately 86% of energy supply load serving obligation.

Residential* 41.4% GS-1 Secondary* 44.8% GS-1 Primary 5.4% GS-2 Substation 3.5% GS-2 Transmission 1.8% Lighting 0.9% Irrigation 1.7% Yellowstone Nat'l Park 0.4%

2017 Actual Retail Load: Energy Usage by Rate Class

(*Includes DSM Energy Savings)

Energy Forecast

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Retail Load Forecast

Forecast load growth for base case is 0.4%, before losses and net of DSM and NEM (dashed line)

Weather Sensitive Load

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

2017 Retail Load Shape (MW) Including losses

Winter Peak Day Summer Peak Day Average of 2017 Days Minimum Load Day

Heavy Load Hours: Hour Ending 7 through 22 (Pacific Prevailing Time) Monday through Saturday excluding NERC Holidays

Variation in Loads and Resources

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Variations in Loads and Resources Over a Two Day Period (modeled)

Energy Balance – Heavy Load Hours

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• 100,000

200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22

MWh

NorthWestern Energy Supply Portfolio HL Hours Generation Actual to 2017 Forecast to 2023

Hydro Rate Based Assets Colstrip Unit 4 Basin Creek DGGS (Optimized) RFP/PPA (Morgan, PPL, Transalta) Small Hydro (PPA) DSM Distributed Gen. (net meter) Tier II QF (No Wind) Small QF-1 (no wind) Wind (RBA, PPA, QF) Retail Load

• Gen. above load is

sold into the market and purchases are made to meet load. Includes MPSC Order QF facilities.

Energy Balance – Light Load Hours

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• 100,000

200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22

MWh

NorthWestern Energy Supply Portfolio LL Hours Generation Actual to 2017 Forecast to 2023

Hydro Rate Based Assets Colstrip Unit 4 Basin Creek DGGS (Optimized) RFP (Morgan, PPL, Transalta) Small Hydro (PPA) DSM Distributed Gen. (net meter) Tier II QF (No Wind) Small QF-1 (no wind) Wind (RBA, PPA, QF) Retail Load

• Gen. above load is

sold into the market and purchases are made to meet load.

Includes MPSC Order QF facilities.

Energy Balance – Non-Carbon / Carbon

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Peak Capacity Needs

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NWE’s Capacity deficits are very large and grow over time

Physical Resources: Name Plate vs. Capacity Contribution

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Last 4 Years - Summer Peak

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Last 4 Years - Winter Peak

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Flexible Capacity Need and Resources

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Intra-hour Need Flexible Capacity

Within-hour INC, 150

Contingency Reserves, 65 Regulation, 50 DGGS, 150 Basin Creek, 52 Hydro, 45 Colstrip 4, 24

MW

Flexible Capacity Need vs. Resources

Within-hour INC Contingency Reserves Regulation DGGS Basin Creek Hydro Colstrip 4

Total: 271 Total: 265

2018 Resource Planning Process

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Potential Resources for Inclusion in Resource Portfolio.

• Thermal Generation

– 11x0 SCCT 50 MW Aeroderivative – 1x0 SCCT 50 MW Frame/Industrial – 1x0 RICE – 18 MW – 1x0 RICE – 9 MW – 2x1 nominal 150 MW CCCT (small CCCT option) – 1x1 F-Class CCCT (with ACC or wet cooling) – 1x1 CCCT duct firing (generic)

• Renewables

– Geothermal – Solar PV – Wind – Hydro Upgrades

• Storage

– Pumped Hydroelectric – Compressed Air Energy Storage – Lithium Ion Battery – Vanadium Flow Battery

2018 Resource Planning Process

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• 2018 resource planning process is well underway.
• 2018 Resource Plan to be filed by December 15, 2018.
• NorthWestern plans to hold at least one additional public

meeting.