North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update gen $ CAEP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update gen $ CAEP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 21, 2022 145 likes •485 views

North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update gen $ CAEP Update Goals Reduce Reduce Lower Mitigate Quality Emissions Energy Costs Risk of Life CAEP Update Goals Check CAEP Progress Update CAEP Modelling Confirm Emissions

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SLIDE 1

North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update

gen $

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SLIDE 2

Reduce Emissions Reduce Energy Lower Costs Quality

  • f Life

CAEP Update Goals

Mitigate Risk

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SLIDE 3

CAEP Update Goals

Check CAEP Progress Update CAEP Modelling Create GHG Tracking Capacity Confirm Emissions Reduction Target

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SLIDE 4

CAEP Update Workplan

Project Start Updated Data Collection Data Calibration in New Model Modelling of Business as Usual Scenario (BAU) BAU Report Data Methods & Assumptions Summary Modelling of Low- Carbon Scenario (LCS) Emissions Reduction Target Confirmation LCS Presentation Consultation Action & Implementation Planning CAEP Update Report Project Completion Action & Modelling Refinement

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SLIDE 5

Assumptions

+ 9,025 people

  • 1,170 vehicles

+ 9,950 jobs + 867 homes

31,584 41,533 30,538 39,562 19,400 18,231 12,582 13,449

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Numbers

Change ges s 2016-2050 2050

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SLIDE 6

Drive iver Main in Effects (Ene nergy y and d Emiss ission

  • ns Foc
  • cus)

us) Population Growth Increased:

  • Energy use in homes and transportation
  • Demand for commercial services (increased commercial building energy use)
  • Transportation services demand (transit, active transportation infrastructure)
  • Water use and waste/wastewater production

Employment Growth Increased:

  • Demand for commercial services (increased commercial building energy use)
  • Commuting and associated energy use
  • Transportation services demand (transit, active transportation infrastructure)
  • Industrial energy use

Housing Growth (greenfield) Required:

  • Electrical grid extension
  • Natural gas line extension
  • Potable water system extension
  • Wastewater system extension
  • Transportation infrastructure extension
  • Increased waste collection services
  • Increased personal vehicle kilometres travelled

Main Emissions Drivers

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SLIDE 7

Emission Sources Considered

  • ut-of-boundary

transportation

 

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SLIDE 8

Emission Sources Considered

Catalyst Crofton Paper Mill

Not included in inventory and modelling as emissions dwarf most North Cowichan emissions. As a facility that emits over 10,000 tonnes annually, the mill is required to report to the Province.

Agriculture

Included in inventory and modelling (Scope 1 emissions). Most emissions due to livestock. Agriculture is largely under Provincial jurisdiction.

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SLIDE 9

1 million Gigajoules (278 megawatt hours) =

20,631 passenger vehicles 28,571,429 litres of gasoline consumed 24,211 homes’ electricity use for one year 9,813 homes’ energy use for one year

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SLIDE 10
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SLIDE 11

9.25 9.75

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

GJ (millions)

338.6 341.9

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands)

Current Path Energy and Emissions

+ 500,000 GJ in 2050 (+ 5%)

Total Energy gy Use Total Emissions

+ 3,300 tonnes in 2050 (+ 1%)

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SLIDE 12

Ener ergy y Use Emissions

Current Path Energy and Emissions by Sector

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

GJ (millions) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands)

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SLIDE 13

Current Path Energy and Emissions by Fuel Source

Ener ergy y Use Emissions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

GJ (millions) 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands)

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SLIDE 14

Ener ergy y Use

Current Path Energy Use by End Use

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

GJ (millions)

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SLIDE 15

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands)

  • 80% of 2007 levels

280,800 tCO2e reduction to achieve target

We are here We are going here We want to go here

Emissions Reductions Target: -80% of 2016 levels

Total Emissions

61.1 341.9 338.6

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Strategy Sectors for Emissions Reductions

Compact, complete communities Efficient buildings Low-carbon transportation Water, Wastewater, and Solid Waste Local clean energy generation & procurement Carbon sequestration

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SLIDE 17

Main Context Changes Since Original CAEP

BC Step Code for efficient new buildings Advances in heating/cooling technology (e.g. heat pumps) Advances in building retrofit techniques Increased variety of electric vehicle models Decreased price of electric vehicles Increased speed of charging equipment Decreased prices of renewable energy technologies Increased availability of energy storage technologies

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SLIDE 18

Main Context Changes Since Original CAEP

Increased ambition and detail of Provincial and Federal government climate change goals, objectives, policies, and plans Improved access to data sources (especially industrial) Increased modelling sophistication Launch and adoption of a globally accepted emissions inventory reporting protocol

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Compact, Complete Communities

Current Path Low-carbo bon Spatial distribu bution Continue current development trajectories in existing urban containment boundaries. Focus development in Chemainus (10%), Crofton (10%), and South End (80%). Dwelling g size Baseline dwelling sizes maintained. Average dwelling size decreases 20% by 2050. Buildi ding type mix New buildings type mix ratios reflect baseline building mixes. Only 10% of new buildings are single family homes in 2050 onward.

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Efficient New Buildings

Current Path Low-carbo bon New residen dential buildi dings Follow BC Step Code: 20 per cent more energy efficient by 2022. 40 per cent more energy efficient by 2027. 80 per cent more energy efficient by 2032 & net-zero energy ready. New buildings are net-zero energy by 2030. New commercial buildi dings gs Follow BC Step Code. New buildings are net-zero energy by 2030.

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Efficient Existing Buildings

Current Path Low-carbo bon Retrofit homes es No retrofits. Achieve 50% thermal savings and 50% electrical savings in 100%

  • f existing dwellings by 2040.

Retrofits of commer ercial No retrofits. Achieve 50% thermal savings and 50% electrical savings in 100%

  • f commercial buildings by 2040.

Indu dustry y (proces ess motors/ef /efficien ency) y) No change to current efficiencies. Increase efficiency by 50% by 2050. Municipa pal buildi dings gs retrofits Current efficiencies held constant. 100% of existing municipal buildings are retrofit to net-zero emissions by 2030. Heat Pumps ps Current instances extrapolated. 100% of heating/cooling is electric by 2050. Solar PV Current instances extrapolated. 90% of homes have 50% of their electricity needs met by solar by 2050.

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Water, Wastewater, and Solid Waste

Current Path Low-carbo bon Increa ease e pumpi ping g efficien ency Current intensity held constant. Decrease energy used in pumping by 2%/year to 2050. Increa ease e water er efficien ency Current intensity held constant. Decrease water volume use by 2%/year to 2050. Waste Diver ersion Baseline generation and diversion rates extrapolated. 90% of residential and ICI waste diverted by 2050. 95% of organic waste diverted by 2030.

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Low-carbon Transportation

Current Path Low-carbo bon Expa pand d transit Follows BC Transit planning. Transit mode share increases to 25% by 2050. Elect ectrify y transit Follows BC Transit planning. 100% electric and right-sized by 2030. Electrify y municipa pal fleets None. 100% electric and right-sized by 2030. Increa ease/i e/impr prove ve cycling g & walki king g infr frastructure Mode shares held current. 35% of trips are walking and cycling by 2050. Elect ectrify y personal vehicles es 3% new personal EVs in personal use vehicle stock by 2040. 100% of all new car sales are electric models by 2030. Elect ectrify y commer ercial vehicles Current mix held constant. 100% of all new commercial vehicle sales are electric models by 2030.

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Local Clean Energy Generation

Current Path Low-carbo bon Solar PV - ground d mount No instances. 1MW capacity/year. District energy gy Current instances of DE held constant. New DE system added in University Village. Energy y storage None. 18.5 MW of storage by 2050 to accommodate 10% of PV generation. Wind d Energy gy None. None. Renewa wabl ble natural gas None. 100% of remaining natural gas demand is replaced with RNG/hydrogen by 2050.

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Low-carbon Actions Emissions Reductions

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands)

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Low-carbon Actions Emissions Reductions

325 330 335 340 345 350

2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands)

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Emissions Reductions Target

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands) 3,100 tCO2e reduction gap Total Emissions

61.1 tCO2e target

277,700 tCO2e reduction

64.2 tCO2e reached

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SLIDE 28

Ener ergy y Use Emissions

Low-carbon Energy and Emissions by Sector

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

GJ (millions)

  • 50

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands)

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Low carbon Energy and Emissions by Fuel Source

Ener ergy y Use Emissions 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

tonnes CO2e (thousands) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

GJ (millions)

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Summary

NC has 5 big moves: 1. Electric vehicles (personal and commercial) 2. Replace natural gas with renewable natural gas and hydrogen 3. Increase industrial energy efficiency 4. Increase carbon sequestration in forests 5. Home energy efficiency retrofits (including heat pumps) These are responsible for 94% of NC’s emissions reductions.

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Summary

35,000 tCO2e agricultural emissions remain in 2050 33,000 tCO2e industrial emissions remain in 2050 Largely under federal and provincial control NC has 16 small moves that are responsible for 6% of emissions reductions. All moves are necessary to reach the emissions reduction target. 3,100 tCO2e emissions gap to reach target can be covered by further reductions in transportation, agriculture, and/or industrial sectors. 8,300 tCO2e remain in transportation sector – potential for further reductions

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North Cowichan Climate Action and Energy Plan Update

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