Update: Strategy and Policy Dave Preikshot, PhD, RPBio Senior - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Climate Action and Energy Plan Update: Strategy and Policy

Dave Preikshot, PhD, RPBio Senior Environmental Specialist North Cowichan

Why are we here today?

• This is part of an iterative process that will help ensure we achieve emissions reduction and

make our community more resilient to climate change

• Goal for today’s engagement meeting:

▫ Presentations from DNC Staff and SSG ▫ Answer questions about the new CAEP model and take on board suggestions for changes to modelling assumptions and suggestions for future modelling work. ▫ Discuss emissions reduction policies and actions that could be implemented in North Cowichan which can include policies and actions that may not be directly related to strategies identified in the CAEP update.

• Steps for the future

▫ Continue engagement with whole community on Place Speak ▫ Report back to council with lessons learned from engagement group and Place Speak discussions ▫ Finalise CAEP modelling update ▫ Reconvene annually with engagement group to track emission progress and assess policy performance

CAEP Update and the Climate Action Plan (CAP)

• The CAEP Update is a program funded by

the Federation of Canadian Municipalities in order to:

▫ Update the assumptions used in the current GHG model in consideration of technological changes (e.g. renewable energy, electric vehicles etc.) ▫ Develop a new GHG emissions model. ▫ Remodel existing scenarios and resultant implementation plan actions to assess efficacy of actions, assess any new potential actions, and revise the implementation as required. ▫ Using the new model assess the District’s progress towards its’ current GHG reduction target. Re-assess the District’s current target and if necessary recommend an alternate target(s). ▫ Develop a more functional and user-friendly tool for ongoing modelling of GHG reduction strategies and monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions.

• The CAP is a strategic approach adopted

by North Cowichan Council to guide policy to combat climate change and adapt to new climate norms.

▫ Emissions target is 80% below baseline by 2050

• CAP has six strategy areas:

▫ transportation/electric vehicles ▫ corporate leadership ▫ natural assets and carbon sequestration ▫ building efficiency ▫ Lowering waste ▫ climate adaptation

Relation of CAEP to Existing North Cowichan Climate Action Plan

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What should we do? Global options:

Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here

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Environmentalist View

Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here

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7 Climate Skeptic View

Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here

8 North Cowichan Situation

Things we would LIKE to do Things we CAN do Like to do and can do, but: does not work here Can do and works here, but: do not want to do Like to and works here, but: we can’t do it Like to do, can do, and it works here

North Cowichan has a very low population density among BC communities of similar size

• The graph shows

population density of BC municipalities with populations between 18- 60 thousand (+ Vancouver and Victoria)

• DNC has the 2nd lowest

density of similarly sized municipalities

• This level of density will

still apply to 90% of North Cowichan’s housing stock in 2050.

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2000 4000 6000 Vancouver Victoria North Vancouver White Rock Langley Port Coquitlam Oak Bay Port Moody Port Alberni Langford Penticton Courtenay Fort St. John Cranbrook West Vancouver Vernon West Kelowna Campbell River Pitt Meadows Squamish Mission North Cowichan Salmon Arm

people / km2

Population Density

North Cowichan has a very different age distribution compared to the rest of BC and nearby communities (male and female age category % of total population). Most common age category in BC: 50-59, DNC 65-69, Cowichan Tribes IR#1: 5-9, City of Duncan 50-59. DNC has fewer young adults age 20-35 overall.

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• 0.20
• 0.10

0.00 0.10 0.20

District of North Cowichan

• 0.20
• 0.10

0.00 0.10 0.20 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100+

British Columbia

• 0.20
• 0.10

0.00 0.10 0.20

Cowichan Tribes

• 0.20
• 0.10

0.00 0.10 0.20

City of Duncan

age category proportion of total population in each age category (MALE(-) or FEMALE)

Difference in GHG Emissions: Victoria vs North Cowichan 11

50000 100000 150000 industry transportation farms commercial houses fugitive waste annual emissions (t CO2eq) Victoria new CAEP

Several Assumptions of the Original CAEP Have Changed, e.g., Emissions and Sinks

• Agricultural and industrial emissions are much greater than original estimates
• Carbon sequestration in Municipal Forest may be much larger than previously thought

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Most of the LAND (~60%) is on farms LARGER than 70 acres.

50 100 150 200 <10 10-69 70-129 130-179 180-239 240-399 400-559 560-759

count of farms farm size category

# of farms by size

2011 2016

Most (>80%) of our farms are SMALLER than 70 acres…. BUT

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 <10 10-69 70-129 130-179 180-239 240-399 400-559 560-759

total area farmed (ac) farm size category

total area farmed by farm size (ac)

2011 2016

Several Assumptions of the Original CAEP Have Changed, e.g., Electric Vehicles

• Transport Canada policy on Zero Emission Vehicles:
• We are setting the following ambitious Canada-wide targets, to be achieved at a national

level and encompassing battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles: ▫ By 2025, 10% of new light-duty vehicles sold in Canada will be zero-emission ▫ By 2030, 30% will be zero-emission ▫ By 2040, 100% will be zero-emission

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50000 100000 150000 industry transportation farms commercial houses fugitive waste annual emissions (t CO2eq)

• ld CAEP

new CAEP

GHG Emissions: North Cowichan OLD CAEP vs NEW CAEP

Thinking about abatement curves

• What policies can we leverage
• What policies have potential economic

benefits for MNC

• What policies will significantly reduce GHG

emissions

• How do costs in different sectors influence

policy options

• How is the North Cowichan curve different

from others, e.g., US curve shown here

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