Normal 1 24/05/2017 We now think of it as normal 2 24/05/2017 3 - PDF document

24/05/2017 What is Zero Carbon? ‘Normal’ 1

24/05/2017 We now think of it as ‘normal’ 2

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24/05/2017 - but there’s a Catch-22 5

24/05/2017 A plan that delivers what the physics & the ambition of the UN Paris Agreement demands 6

24/05/2017 Showing have all the technologies…. 1977 2010 In collaboration with: 2013 2007 Where we are now 7

24/05/2017 Power-down & Power-up Through integrating a smart approach to food, diet, buildings, transport, energy & land-use, the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to net zero • without relying on future technology • without major impacts on quality of life • whilst also considering ‘adaptation’ Power down energy demand: 8

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24/05/2017 Today - 35% - 78% 11

24/05/2017 Powering up Britain with renewables: Can we “keep the lights on”? Yes we can! The ZCB Energy Model: is based on ten years of real-world hourly data from 2002 - 2011 87,648 hours 12

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24/05/2017 The ZCB Scenario demonstrates • 82% of the time, the supply of renewable electricity exceeds demand (including heating and transport). • 18% of the time, electricity supply does not fully meet demand. • Short-term storage & load shifting can reduce this from 18% to 15%. • Biogas & “carbon neutral synthetic gas” in power stations cover this. • Management of supply and demand with a 100% renewable energy system is possible with existing technology Synthetic gas storage = Demand met 100% of time 15

24/05/2017 Rethinking diets & land-use 64% of adults overweight/obese (Bates et al, 2011). Too much food. • An unhealthy balance. • Too much HFSS and high protein foods. • Too little fruit, vegetables and cereals. • Waste = 30% in Europe (FAO, 2011). 16

24/05/2017 Land use today • 65-70% = food production/agriculture (despite 42% imports). • 85% of agricultural land = livestock. • About 12% = forest (European average = 37%). 17

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24/05/2017 Net zero emissions is achievable Showing have all the technologies gives hesitant policy makers nowhere to hide … 19

24/05/2017 words 20

24/05/2017 http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/USStatesWWS.pdf 21

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24/05/2017 $5.3 trillion in 2015. 26

24/05/2017 Employment 27

24/05/2017 ‘The trend is our friend’ - but will we get there in time? Transforming your business … • Building stock – energy efficiency, • Clean tech growth generation potential • Fuel costs • Transport impacts - skype, • Adaptation homeworking, local supply, EV’s • Reduced working week • Energy consumption • Closed cycle operation • Design life of products • Jobs • Footprint & Mindprint • Imports/exports • Land-use • Key barriers to change – lock-in • Food related issues • Waste • Leadership/governance • Externalised costs – carbon tax, air • Future vision for the business quality etc… 28

24/05/2017 Making it Happen • Science* Identifying barriers and overcoming them • Technology* • Culture • Economics • Psychology • Philosophy • Sociology • History • Democracy • Law • Spirit 29

24/05/2017 Rather than an unresolved technical challenge, it is increasingly accepted that we actually face a mix of economic, cultural and psychological barriers. Tackling such a complex global challenge requires a new kind of approach which joins up research and practice across disciplines, borders, sectors and scales. ‘Cutting edge research’ ‘Cutting edge practice’ What are the barriers and how do we overcome them? In 4 key sectors – Buildings, land use, energy & transport and the wider cross cutting themes 30

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24/05/2017 Food Credit: Feedback 32

24/05/2017 Transport Credit: York Bike Belles Sheridan Piggott Founder of Bike Belles “ If you can demonstrate to people that what they are doing is not just good for the planet but will improve their quality of life and they’ll have a great time doing it, that is transformational ”. 33

24/05/2017 Buildings ARNO SCHMICKLER Programme Director, Energiesprong UK “ I’m an architect by background. Coming to Britain, it’s almost impossible what people put up with in terms of the quality of the building stock. It’s appalling to see what’s still being delivered today in terms of energy efficiency in the UK ”. 34

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24/05/2017 ‘Wider changes’ Linking individual/local change to wider changes needed Tools to un-lock our ‘carbon lock-in’ The historical, technical, cultural and institutional co-evolution of fossil powered energy, housing, transport and agricultural systems creates persistent forces that are hugely resistant to change 36

24/05/2017 Politics and Governance Credit: Sustainable Development Alliance 37

24/05/2017 Communications Credit: Greenpeace Economics and Finance 38

24/05/2017 Psychology & Behaviour Credit: Green Open Homes Behaviour: wider systemic change • Local governments, and especially cities, are well-placed to drive change and to co-operate with other cities taking similar action. • e.g. the Milan Urban Food Policy Pact , signed by 100 other mayors, is a network of cities developing & implementing sustainable food systems . 39

24/05/2017 Changing Values Credit Muslim Climate Action Making it Happen - in your business The power of a positive vision 40

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24/05/2017 The power of a positive vision ‘Postcards from the future’ 4 sectors we must change to get to zero are; Food, Transport, Buildings, Energy 42

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24/05/2017 The shift to zero carbon is actually one of the most exciting opportunities in human history. 44

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24/05/2017 Employment 46

24/05/2017 £ 2,450,458 47

24/05/2017 100 ‘good ideas’ Released via CAT social media 48

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24/05/2017 Lessons from History 51

24/05/2017 Hearts and Minds The Children's Fire is part of the Earth teachings of the elders of ancient America. The Children's Fire was a reminder of the first promise: "No law, no action of any kind, shall be taken that will harm the children". It is now time to re-kindle this fire: in our corporations, governments, religion and education. 52

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24/05/2017 Making it Happen: Key conclusions 1. We have all the technologies we need 2. We need to link things up – to make systemic change 3. Practical projects overcome barriers in innovative ways 4. These must be supported & scaled up 5. Positive vision co-benefits – health, wellbeing, NHS costs 6. Through education and inspiration, we can support each other to catalyse change at all levels. • 20 th May – Citizens Workshop in the Brink, Liverpool. • 6 th -8 th June – Zero Carbon Britain Short Course (Wales) & Small is … at CAT in Wales 54