New York Statewide Survey SecureAmericaNow.org August 2015 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

New York Statewide Survey

SecureAmericaNow.org August 2015

McLaughlin & Associates www.mclaughlinonline.com Caddell Associates

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This New York Statewide poll of 600 likely general election voters was conducted from August 4th-6th, 2015. Interview selection was random within predetermined election

• units. Seventy percent (n = 420) of the interviews were

conducted via landline telephone by professional interviewers. Thirty percent (n=180) of the interviews were conducted on cell-

• phones. These samples were then combined and structured to

correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election. This poll of 600 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval. Some message testing questions were split sampled into two groups of 300 voters and have an accuracy of +/- 5.7% at a 95% confidence interval.

Methodology

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Since the Obama Administration has made a deal with Iran about their potential development of a nuclear arsenal. In your opinion, should the goal of this deal be to stop Iran from ever getting nuclear weapons, delay Iran from getting nuclear weapons for 10 years, or should it be to accept Iran into the ranks of nations who have nuclear weapons?

69 20 4 7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Stop Iran from ever getting nuclear weapon Delay Iran from getting nuclear weapons Accept Iran into ranks of nations w/ nuclear weapons DK/Refused

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Stop Delay Accept Republican 81 10 3 Democrat 61 26 5 Independent 72 23 2 Liberal 58 29 8 Moderate 68 22 3 Conservative 81 11 2 Protestant 69 20 5 Catholic 69 18 4 Jewish 78 16 2 Atheist/Agnostic 54 32 4 White 72 18 4 African-American 60 26 7 Hispanic 61 26 4 Under 40 66 22 9 41-55 76 17 1 56-65 74 17 3 Over 65 63 25 4 Men 73 20 3 Women 66 21 5

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

4 President Obama, Secretary Kerry and their supporters say that the opponents of this agreement offer no policy alternatives other than military action and offer no other course than war. Those who oppose the President say there is a better way, including President Obama’s original demand that Iran dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure, that there could be any time/ anywhere inspections, that there should be no signing bonus for Iran and that sanctions will be removed in phases if Iran continues to keep its promises. Which do you think is correct?

34 54 13 10 20 30 40 50 60

President Obama Opponents of the Deal DK/Refused

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Obama Opp. Republican 16 73 Democrat 45 40 Independent 34 58 Liberal 54 33 Moderate 36 54 Conservative 16 72 Protestant 31 55 Catholic 30 59 Jewish 32 57 Atheist/Agnostic 50 36 White 34 56 African-American 40 43 Hispanic 34 50 Under 40 36 53 41-55 35 60 56-65 30 54 Over 65 35 50 Men 33 55 Women 35 52

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Regarding the specifics of this agreement, do you think that President Obama and Secretary Kerry are telling Americans all the facts or only what they think will help the agreement be passed by Congress? 30 61 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

All the Facts Only what helps the agreement pass Congress DK/Refused

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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All Only Republican 11 84 Democrat 45 44 Independent 28 66 Liberal 52 38 Moderate 29 59 Conservative 13 83 Protestant 28 65 Catholic 28 66 Jewish 28 55 Atheist/Agnostic 36 46 White 27 64 African-American 51 41 Hispanic 28 62 Under 40 31 64 41-55 24 67 56-65 33 57 Over 65 32 57 Men 27 64 Women 33 58

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Do you believe President Obama when he says this deal will stop the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, or do you think that Iran’s enemies like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others will follow through on their threat to attain nuclear weapons to protect themselves from Iran? 27 57 16 10 20 30 40 50 60

Stops spread of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East Others will Follow to Attain Nuclear Weapons DK/Refused

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Stops Threat Republican 12 79 Democrat 38 41 Independent 21 65 Liberal 42 36 Moderate 24 60 Conservative 15 76 Protestant 25 57 Catholic 24 64 Jewish 23 60 Atheist/Agnostic 30 56 White 23 61 African-American 46 39 Hispanic 27 54 Under 40 26 62 41-55 26 59 56-65 28 57 Over 65 27 54 Men 28 61 Women 25 54

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Agree/Disagree: If we don’t stop Iran now from getting a nuclear weapon, Iran will eventually get nuclear weapons, and it will be our children who end up faced with the likelihood of nuclear war.

72 51 21 20 9 11 8 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

AGREE Strong Smwt. DIS- AGREE Smwt. Strong DK/REF.

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NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

Agree Disagree Republican 83 9 Democrat 66 27 Independent 71 21 Liberal 58 36 Moderate 74 19 Conservative 85 8 Protestant 71 21 Catholic 81 15 Jewish 72 20 Atheist/Agnostic 58 28 White 75 19 African-American 63 29 Hispanic 71 22 Under 40 70 25 41-55 79 17 56-65 75 17 Over 65 69 20 Men 73 20 Women 72 20

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Should Congress approve a deal that does NOT allow independent U.S. inspections of Iran’s military laboratories, no U.S. monitoring of the program with no Americans or Canadians on the ground in Iran to inspect in any capacity and anything learned by the international U.N. inspectors must be kept secret from the United States?

15 73 11 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Yes No DK/Refused

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Yes No Republican 10 81 Democrat 21 67 Independent 13 77 Liberal 21 66 Moderate 14 75 Conservative 12 82 Protestant 12 78 Catholic 17 74 Jewish 14 76 Atheist/Agnostic 22 64 White 15 77 African-American 16 69 Hispanic 15 66 Under 40 18 72 41-55 11 80 56-65 17 72 Over 65 14 75 Men 16 76 Women 15 72

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Do you believe President Obama should give Iran $150 billion dollars in sanctions relief within the next couple of weeks WITHOUT the approval of Congress?

12 81 7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Yes No DK/Refused

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Yes No Republican 2 94 Democrat 18 73 Independent 16 80 Liberal 22 67 Moderate 13 81 Conservative 3 75 Protestant 9 86 Catholic 9 87 Jewish 13 81 Atheist/Agnostic 28 58 White 11 82 African-American 10 83 Hispanic 21 73 Under 40 14 80 41-55 11 84 56-65 10 83 Over 65 14 79 Men 13 82 Women 11 81

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Agree/Disagree: This deal prevents Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

34 16 18 57 16 42 8 10 20 30 40 50 60

AGREE Strong Smwt. DIS- AGREE Smwt. Strong DK/REF.

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NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

Agree Disagree Republican 16 78 Democrat 48 43 Independent 33 61 Liberal 54 36 Moderate 36 54 Conservative 18 79 Protestant 34 56 Catholic 30 64 Jewish 34 59 Atheist/Agnostic 50 40 White 31 63 African-American 50 36 Hispanic 43 42 Under 40 44 51 41-55 30 63 56-65 30 59 Over 65 36 56 Men 34 59 Women 34 56

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Now knowing that all the previous statements about the agreement are true, would you want your U.S. Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand to vote Yes or vote No on the proposed nuclear agreement with Iran?

34 58 7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

VOTE YES VOTE NO DON'T KNOW

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Yes No DK Republican 8 90 2 Democrat 52 38 10 Independent 32 61 7 Liberal 65 27 8 Moderate 35 55 11 Conservative 8 89 2 Protestant 34 59 7 Catholic 28 66 7 Jewish 36 59 5 Atheist/Agnostic 52 40 8 White 33 62 5 African-American 49 37 14 Hispanic 36 50 14 Under 40 37 54 10 41-55 32 64 4 56-65 28 63 8 Over 65 43 51 6 Men 32 61 7 Women 36 56 8

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If the deal with Iran breaks down in violation of the agreement, or Iran is found attempting to secretly advance a nuclear weapons program, would you approve

• r disapprove of using the military to attack and destroy the facilities in Iran

which are necessary to produce a nuclear weapon?

64 43 20 25 9 16 12 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

APP. Strong Smwt. DISAPP. Smwt. Strong DK/REF.

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NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

App. Disapp. Republican 76 17 Democrat 56 29 Independent 62 28 Liberal 51 33 Moderate 61 26 Conservative 79 16 Protestant 64 23 Catholic 68 22 Jewish 64 24 Atheist/Agnostic 52 34 White 67 23 African-American 46 36 Hispanic 53 32 Under 40 63 27 41-55 69 25 56-65 66 21 Over 65 59 26 Men 68 23 Women 59 26

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Congress has a right to vote to approve or disapprove any deal that President Obama concludes with Iran. If the majority

• f Congress were to disapprove the President’s deal with Iran, the President could then veto Congress’ disapproval and

proceed with his deal with Iran. In that case, would you want to see your Senators and Congressman vote to override the President’s veto or sustain the President’s veto?

52 39 10 10 20 30 40 50 60

Override the President's Veto Sustain the President's Veto DK/Refused

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Override Sustain Republican 82 13 Democrat 32 56 Independent 55 36 Liberal 26 63 Moderate 43 45 Conservative 83 13 Protestant 53 39 Catholic 56 34 Jewish 52 39 Atheist/Agnostic 34 56 White 56 36 African-American 33 56 Hispanic 42 43 Under 40 46 42 41-55 57 38 56-65 55 34 Over 65 48 44 Men 55 37 Women 48 40

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If a majority of Congress voted against the President’s agreement with Iran, but the President vetoed their vote and had enough support from Democrats to sustain the veto, how likely would you be to blame the Democrats if…? “Iran were to get a nuclear weapon”

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NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

57 25 16 16 32 12 10 20 30 40 50 60

LIKELY Def. Very NOT LIKELY NOT LIKELY AT ALL DK/REF.

Likely Not Republican 79 13 Democrat 42 44 Independent 60 33 Liberal 32 55 Moderate 55 33 Conservative 82 12 Protestant 57 32 Catholic 66 24 Jewish 54 33 Atheist/Agnostic 36 54 White 59 31 African-American 51 34 Hispanic 45 41 Under 40 57 33 41-55 63 29 56-65 58 30 Over 65 50 36 Men 64 27 Women 50 36

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If a majority of Congress voted against the President’s agreement with Iran, but the President vetoed their vote and had enough support from Democrats to sustain the veto, how likely would you be to blame the Democrats if…? “Iran were to use some of the $150 billion dollars of sanction money to support terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas to mount major attacks against Israel.”

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NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

59 28 17 14 28 13 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

LIKELY Def. Very NOT LIKELY NOT LIKELY AT ALL DK/REF.

Likely Not Republican 80 12 Democrat 48 38 Independent 58 28 Liberal 41 46 Moderate 53 32 Conservative 82 10 Protestant 59 28 Catholic 65 20 Jewish 60 32 Atheist/Agnostic 42 48 White 63 26 African-American 60 29 Hispanic 34 43 Under 40 51 37 41-55 65 24 56-65 64 21 Over 65 57 32 Men 64 25 Women 55 31

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Many Democratic Senators and Representatives are faced with a difficult choice between supporting their President and sincere concerns about this agreement. Which do you think that you would want your Senators and Congressman to do?

24 69 7 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Trust the President, Vote to Support their Party's Leaders Follow Conscience, Set Aside Party Loyalty, Vote Based

• n Issue

DK/Refused

NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Trust Issue Republican 10 85 Democrat 37 56 Independent 18 77 Liberal 44 49 Moderate 24 69 Conservative 10 87 Protestant 27 66 Catholic 21 75 Jewish 23 72 Atheist/Agnostic 34 62 White 23 73 African-American 40 47 Hispanic 23 66 Under 40 19 72 41-55 20 75 56-65 26 69 Over 65 33 64 Men 24 69 Women 25 69

Trust Issue Trust Issue Trust Issue TOTAL 24 69 Deal w/ Iran -Vote Yes 49 45 Protestant 27 66 NYC MM 28 66 Deal w/ Iran -Vote No 4 93 Catholic 21 75 NYC – Boroughs 31 60 Deal w/ Iran -Neither 24 62 Catholic Dem. 38 58 NYC – Suburbs 25 72

• Inf. Deal w/ Iran -Vote Yes

50 43 Jewish 23 72 Buffalo MM 14 81

• Inf. Deal w/ Iran -Vote No

9 88 Jewish Dem. 29 67 Syracuse/Elmira MMs 14 81

• Inf. Deal w/ Iran -Vote DK

27 40 Atheist/Agnostic 34 62 Rochester MM 27 62 Vote Yes/Now Not 31 66 Jewish Ancestry HH 30 64 Binghamton/Utica MMs 20 80 Not No/Now No 22 73 White 23 73 Albany MM 23 65 Neither/Now Don’t Know 28 35 White Dem. 37 57 Watertown/Plattsburg MMs 8 92

• Fav. – Obama

40 52 African-American 40 47 Likely Dem. Prim. Voter 37 55

• Unfav. – Obama

3 94 Hispanic 23 66 B.O. Policies – More Sec. 47 47

• Fav. – Schumer

31 62 Under $60K 22 71 B.O. Policies – Less Sec. 5 92

• Unfav. – Schumer

12 84 Over $60K 27 69 Republican 10 85 Q19 Choice Model - Obama 44 51 Under 40 19 72 Democrat 37 56 Q19 Choice Model - Opponent 12 84 41-55 20 75

• Dem. Men

38 56 Q19 Choice Model - DK 25 54 56-65 26 69

• Dem. Women

37 56 Override Veto 6 91 Over 65 33 64 Independent 18 77 Sustain Veto 50 45 Men 24 69

• Ind. Men

22 73 Military Strike - Approve 19 78 Women 25 69

• Ind. Women

13 82 Military Strike - Disapprove 45 49 Use Social Media 23 71 Liberal 44 49 Support Israel Attack 14 83 Use Facebook 22 75 Moderate 24 69 Prevent Israel Attack 40 55 Use Internet/Not Social 26 68 Conservative 10 87 Remain Neutral 33 61 No Internet 18 71

• Lib. Dem.

50 43 Trust - Fox News 8 88 Cell 19 72

• Mod. Dem.

34 58 Trust - CNN/NBC/ABC/CBS 30 62 Land 27 68

17 NY - Statewide Survey August 2015

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Many Democratic Senators and Representatives are faced with a difficult choice between supporting their President and sincere concerns about this agreement. Which do you think that you would want your Senators and Congressman to do?

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Voter Profile

Party Total Not Sure Religion Total Not Sure Gender Total Not Sure Very Likely 95 89 Protestant 31 36 Male 47 38 Somewhat Likely 5 11 Catholic 33 28 Female 53 62 Party % % Jewish 11 9 Area % % Republican 30 15 Muslim 1 NYC MM 63 74 Democrat 48 55 Atheist/Agnostic 8 6 Boroughs 33 50 Independent 19 22 Jewish Anc. H.H. % % Suburbs 30 24 Ideology % % Yes 26 20 Buffalo MM 10 10 Liberal 29 29 No 68 70 Syracuse/Elmira MMs 7 5 Moderate 32 36 Spanish Speaking H.H. % % Rochester MM 6 3 Conservative 34 26 Yes 12 24 Binghamton/Utica 4 1 Vote Behavior % % No 86 72 Albany MM 8 6 Democrat 48 57 National Ancestry % % Watertown/Platt MM 2 1 Ticket-splitter 16 18 White 68 46 Vote 2012 % % Republican 29 16 African American 12 22 Yes 79 73 Age % % Hispanic 12 24 No 21 27 18-29 7 11 Asian 1 2 Vote 2014 % % 30-40 16 16 Income % % Yes 66 53 41-55 18 22 Under $60k 29 40 No 34 47 56-65 26 23 Over $60k 43 28 List % % Over 65 28 19 Union H.H. % % Cell 30 40 Yes 28 29 Land 70 60 No 70 68