n 7 DCOH s, DcoH S3.e Ss.o sz.e s1.s O DCOH M So.o s- Special - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Benton PUD Credit Exposure by Sector as of November 30, 2018 I Bank 54,247,238 I lntegrated Oil & Gas Companies 5284,052 r lou s71,604 r lou Affiliate s3,010 r Marketer/Merchant 5552,140 r Mun/Coop S263,182 r RTO S0 s% L0% 5% 79% Benton's
Benton PUD Credit Exposure by Sector as of November 30, 2018
I Bank 54,247,238
r lou s71,604 r Marketer/Merchant 5552,140 r RTO S0 s%
I lntegrated Oil & Gas Companies 5284,052
r lou Affiliate s3,010 r Mun¡/Coop S263,182
L0% 5%
79% Benton's total exposure (principal and agent) is 55,421 ,226
Benton PUD Credit Exposure by Sector as of December 31, 2018
r Bank 5324,052 r tou s47,646 r Marketer/Merchant S1,464,555 r RTo S0 r lntegrated Oil & Gas Companies 582,893 ¡ IOU Affiliate 566,620 r Muni/coop $324,964
L4% L4% 4% 2% 3%
63% Benton's total exposure (principal and agent) is S2,310,729
Unrestricted Reserves and Days Cash on Hand (DCOH)
Unrestricted Reserves with forecasted DCOH December 2018 Treasurer's Report
ø
c
S4o.o
S¡s.o $30.0 s2s.0 s2o.o s1s.o s10.0 $s.o s- $¿o.o s3s.0 s30.0 s2s.0 s2o.o S1s.o s10.o Ss.o 90 DCOH s3s.s Total Reserves: 956.4 million Total DCOH: 1¿14 Estimated 2018 S per l DCOH; $394k (2018 ectual $ per I DCOH hlgher than previoulsy forecasted due to Q4 2018 hedg¡ng act¡vlt¡es)
1 DCOH
s0.3 Undesignated Reserves 32 DCOH Srz.s 7 DCOH
sr.6
10 DCOH
S¡.9 Pôwer Market Volatility
10 DCOH S3.e Power Market
Volatility
4 DCOH
Minimum Operating Reserves Bond lnsurance Replacement
Special Capital Customer Deposits
Unrestricted Reserves
2019 Redistribution of Undesignated Reserves Recommendation
90 DCOH
s3s.2 Adiusted to new 2019 forecasted DCOH amount
7 DCOH
sz.e Total Resewes: $s6.¿ mlllion Total DCOH: 1¡14 Estimated 2019I per l DCOH: $391k
6
c Ê
=
!1.
Net Change: +$3ülk Capltal Projece -$SOOk Large CIAC Prepay (work to be done in 20191:98(X)k 32 DCOH
$ir.c
s-
lncrease $¡OOf tor deposits 92fl1k Large Customer $35k Grorilth $OSf ell Customers
s, DcoH
s1.s
MË¡
O DCOH
So.o Undes¡gnated Reserves
Minimum Operating Reserves Bond lnsurance Replacement
Special Capital Customer Deposits
r/7/2019
Unrestricted Reserves and Days Cash on Hand (DCOH)
Unrestricted Reserves with forecasted DCOH December 2018 Treasurer's Report
ø
c
.9
=
{r} s40.0 Sss.o s30.0 52s.o S2o.o Srs.o s10.0 Ss.o S4o.o s3s.0 s30.0 Szo.o Srs.o S1o.o 90 DCOH S¡s.s Minimum Operating Reserves Bond lnsurance Replacement 10 DCOH S¡.9 Power Market Volat¡l¡ty Total Reserves: 556.¿ million TotalDCOH: 1¡t4 Estimated 2018 S per l DCOH: S394k (2018 actual$ ær l DCOH higtrerthan previoulsy forecasted due to Q4 2018 hedglng act¡v¡t¡esl 32 DCOH $12.s 1 DcoH Sr.o So.¡
SpecialCapital CustomerDeposits Undesignated
Rese¡ves Totat Reserues: 956.c m¡llion
TotalDCOH: 1/t4 Estlmated 2019I per I DCOH: $391k
7 DCOH
st.6
10 DCOH
S¡.9 Power Market Volatility lncrease $gOOk for deposlts $2mk Large Customer $35k Growth
S65k El! Customerc 5 DCOH
lnrd
1 pcQH
O DCOH
s0.0 s-
90 DCOH
$¡s.z
Unrestricted Reserves 2or9 Redistribution of undesignated Reserves Recommendation
Adiusted to new 2019 forecasted DCOH amount Net Change: +$300k capital Pfof ects: -ssoot
Large CIAC Prepay (work to be done ¡n 20191:9800k
52s.o
ø
ã
{^
32 DCOH
Sli.8
Ss.o 7 DCOH 5i..s
,{
.\..d iìi!"I
St.s Minimum
Operating Reserves Bond lnsurance Replacement
SpecialCapital CustomerDeposits Undesignated
Reserves s-
r/7/2079
Average Benton PUD Residential customer Load profile
vs.
Rooftop Solar Energy Production
(Assumes 11.53 kw Solar System Des¡tned to Offset 1OO% of Annuat Customer Energy Consumpt¡on)
2,500 2,000 1,500
s
=
E
l¡¡
1,000 s00
February March April
May
June
I Average Residential Customer kWh Load
July
August September October November December r 11.53 kW Solar Energy Production
January
IMMEDIATE SERVICE RESTORE: The District will reconnect electric service following disconnection for nonpayment when the required reconnect amount has been paid in full. Once payment is received, electric service will be restored immediately at service locations
where remote disconnect/reconnect meters are installed. Benton PUD staff will be dispatched
to reconnect electric service to locations where non remote meters are installed.
When payments made on accounts disconnected for nonpayment satisfy the required reconnect amount, customers will no be charged a reconnect fee, unless they have a non- remote meter and have already required reconnect after hours in the previous 1-2 months A customer who contacts the after-hours call center and is unable to make a payment but agrees to pay the amount required to reconnect in full, by noon the next business day, will be charged an after-hours reconnect fee.
By making a payment in the amount required to reconnect service, the customer acknowledges
that the electric service will be immediately reconnected upon payment. The customer further acknowledges that the location where service is being reconnected is in a safe condition, authorizes the immediate reconnect, and releases Benton PUD from liability relating to the
recon nect. See Fee Schedule for a list of fees
FEE SCHEDUTE
Buslness Hours: 8:30 AM - 5:00 PM Monday-Friday
After-Hours: 5:00 PM - 8:30 AM Monday-Friday, Weekends, Holidays
CONN ECTIDISCONN ECT SERVICE:
Start Seruíce - Business Hours
Sta rt Se ru ice - Afte r- Hou rs Dísconnect for Non-Payflnstdlldt¡on of Load Límiting Device
Reconnect following Disconnect for Non-Pay/Removol of Load Limiting Ðevice - Business Hours Reconnect following Ðísconnect for Non-Pay/Removøl ol Loød Limíting Device - After-Hours, Fírst lnstance in 72 Month Period
¡
Full reconnect amount paid at time of reconnect Reconnect followíng Dísconnect for Non-Poy/Removal of Load Limiting DevÍce - After-Hours, Muttíple lnstønces ín 72 Month Period
¡
Full reconnect amount paid at t¡me of reconnect
Reconnect followíng Disconnect for Non-Pøy/Removal of Loød Límitíng Device - After-Hours
¡
Reconnect amount paid by noon the next business day
MISCELTATIIEOUS: S1s Sgo
s1s No charge No charge $e0
Seo
Advanced Meter Opt Out Opting out requires monthly manual meter reads AppealHeoring Applies when customer fails to attend a scheduled hearing they requested Customer Power Outoge - Business Hours Customer Power Outdge - After-Hours Home Energy Tune-lJp - Fírst Aud¡t ¡n 72 Month Period Requested investigative audit of home energy use Home Energy Tune-Up - Multíple Audíts in 72 Month Períod Requested investigative audit of home energy use
¡
First audit during a 12 month period is free of charge; additional audit(s) during a 12 month period may incur a fee Løte Fee All billings issued by the District are subject to a monthly interest charge Load Limitíng Device Test - Field Test duríng Business Hours Applies if tripping due to customer act¡ons Load Limíting Devíce Test - Fíeld Test during After'Hours Applies if tripping due to customer actions M ete r Tampe ring/Se ll Con ne ctío n
Meter Test
Applies if calibration is within ! 05% - see section on Meter Testing
Multi-Tenønt Meters - Field Vísit
Returned Payments Check or electronic payment
Urgent Notíce S15/month
S7o No Charge $120 or actual cost No charge S4e.ss 1% of billing
s2oo 5300 or actual cost $2s 52s0 or actual cost s2s ss0 s2
L/8/2o1-e
Benton County Demographics
.
DisabilityDefinition
.
Populatio n at75% FPI
Low lncome Discount - Veterans/Active Military District Low lncome Weatherization Funding
BPA Weatherization Fund
Summary
I
¡
Low lncome Programs Follow-Up
Benton County Demographics'
Counly Populatrorr TB7,519 lndivlduals w¡th a Dlsabll¡ty Low lncome2 with a Disability (24.6% of d¡sabled poputation) 24,375 5,996 Senior Veterans Veterâns with a Disabll¡ty Low lncome3 Veterans (4.8% of veteran populationl All Low lncomeP (17.4% of counry populârlonl
lAll ddto colculotedfrom the USCensusBurcau Ameilcon Community Su¡vey 9-Yeü Estlûdt$2072-2016 2gdsed on 725% ofFedetalpovettyLevel
(FPL), D¡stdctlow incoñeprcgtumsgo up to 225%olFPL, 3Bdsed on 7ú94 oÍ Fedetol Povettl Level (FPL),sen¡ors (age 55 sr olderl 24,776 5,978 3,470 634 32,720
I
t/8/2oLs
Census Bureau American Community Survey
Disability Data
tr Benton County demographics indicate 13% of individuals have a disability
s Abilityto perform self-care and independent living tr As a reminder, the District's low income disablecl discounI requiles one o[ the
following to qualify:
s Disabled parking permi$ or,
g Certification ¡ndicating customer is a recipient of Social Security Disability
(SSDI) or Supplemental Security lncome (SSl); or,
a Medical professional validates disability Benton County Population2 -75o/o of FPL
50% FPL1 75%FPL2 LOO%FPLL L25%FPLT
tActuol bosed on US Census Eutequ Ameñcdn Coññuníty Sutvey - s-Yeú Est¡motes 2072-2U6
ã
669
9t7 2,t94
3,608
s-Yeor Estl mat$ 2072-2076 2Qstlñoted bosed on US Census Buîedu Ameilcon
4,525 14,4L6 2l.,8t0 1,7t0
4,802
O¡sãbledPopulation 24,175
Senlor Populãt¡on 24,776
TotalPopulation 187,519
10,584
18B4r 3e680 2,502 1996
2
Ll8/zoLe Discussion Only: Expand Low lncome Discount Program at75% of FPL
Add 30% discount for all low income customers + 5762,637
=5L,369,7t4
. Based on est¡mated 2,153 additional customers enrolling for discountsl
Arrnr¡,¡l
'% i.)rs[oui.fl! to
f)r,,ror-rnt! lìei¿rl 5,¡ii.::
L.047%
737
= $607,O77 Add 30% discount for Senior/Disabled customers 2017 Discounts
Es{ñotes 2012-2016
US Censut Euaedu Ameilún+ 544.380
=$65t,457
Recommendation: Add Veteran/Act¡ve Military Discount
E Dlscounts are currently 0.464% of retail sales
Sonlor
É%
1509ú of FFLv€tann/Atîlvê Miltary D¡sbled vst€rdn/Actlve MfÍtrry Dlsblrd
S€niór 759f 200* df ËPL V€t€nû/Arllv€ ilÍh¡ry D16äbled S€ñlor
IM
22Ë*úFpL
s40,215
;
0.495%
I Esümoted bdsed on currcnt Dlstr¡ct Low lncome Dlscount entollment doto ond Us Census Buredu Añet¡@n3
Ll8/zOLe
BPA Weatherization Fund
Commission Discussion Follow-Up from t2/8/L8
u lncrease BPUD Low lncome Weatherization by SfOOtl
s Would help about 25 low income customers annually
r Benefits those who can't afford to participate r Costs about 7 times more than Non Low lncome programs
tr Lower FPL requirement from 200%to I75%?
tr Would help about 3 less customers annually
4
Ll8/z0re
District 2016-2018 Low lncome Weatherization Program Number of Recipients by FPL low lncome Customerc by Federal Poverty Level
."...'* ^-C ,n,/' d'C --'t. t-.
^dn
x r"¿"ol Porrefi lenel
ã are 37% of these 71 customers ø
L
(J
40% 3s% 30% 2s% 20%
t5% t0%
5% 0%
BPA S5.3M Low lncome Energy Efficiency Program
tr Created in 1983 followíng 1981 Power Act
g Ensures Low Income residents benefit from
conservation programs tr updated 1986 to tie to Power Plans
¡ BPA Low lncome Energy Efficiency Program (LIEE) r $5.3 million annual program over BPA territory r Co-funds DOE Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP)
s Distributed through state and tribal governments
r Locally - Benton Franklin Community Action Connections
5
Ll8/zOLs
BPA s SS.Stvl Program Benefits to District Customers
n Provides resources for replacement or repairs
g Windows, insulation, doors
E Customer education
n Can be leveraged with District funds
q Annual SAOk CAC allocation
D Questions/comments?
El Motion - Veteran/Active Military Discount
Summary
6
I
Your Trusted Energy Porlner
BEÜ]OI PAD
Sohr Panei
tustomer
Lçads
Custsmer Electrical Seryice Panel
Seruics r¡eterrilh bi-dircctftrrrd KWH regislem
Lodrsbþ AC disËtrrfl€ct
instnfled by cudorner
L
f ive
iPml's1't{.'nr1*
pmdudi,on lnstå$€d
by the disùict
meûerhsse installed
by cusbmer
J
Distri
Transfsr
hlet Melering kWH flreCitç
Mefered þlere
tC tp ÃC
,lnverter
fr,åetereC H*re
BPUD Distri bution System
I
i Program
Energy Program
It\¡t \,r( ¡i Sr rì l L\nl¡grY
Renewable Energy System lncentive Program Energy Code Energy Questionr?
Home
About Us lnformåtion Centers. Publications and Toolç Energy L¡brary
Events & Traanangs
l'm Looking For.--? Building Efficiency Cl€an Fuels ¿l Alt EnÊrgy
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Research & Evaluation isearch Energy Frogram : {
Renewable Energy System lncentÍve Program
IMPORTANT- Deadlines to Address ESSB 5939's
Funding Limit (10-9-l 8)
Due to the high level of intere¡t in the Renewable Energy Sy*em lncentive Program and the funding limitationr prescribed in the governing legislation, ule hane
establi¡hed the following requirements, whkh will govem the incentive program's closure-
Ee advised that these reguiremenr apply onþ to the overall f 1 I O million funding
limit; there are additional utility-speciñc fr¡nding limirations-
Community Solar & Shared Commercial Solar Projects
All eligible sponrors of cornmunity solar or shared commercial solar projects mu*: Submit a precertification application by 5:00 p-m. on llqænbcr 16, ãtlt- Applications receiued after this date will not be considered for funding under the f I lO million funding limit-
We also requert that intere¡ted ¡ponsors of community or ¡hared commercial solar
projects contact us ¡r!¡ r(xln a5 possible:
E-^-^Æ---:^-D--..---^--
Ståtewidc Cap
11OM
100M 95M 90M a5M aoM 75M 70M 65M 60M 55M 50M 451ì' 40M 35M 30M 25M 20M 15M 10M 5M
OM !
I
Appl¡catÍons under rev¡ew
Precertifed projets Certified prcjects
Renewable Energy System lncentive Prog ram
Renewable Energy System lncentive Program
.f":,- : ¿l:t, ;' -j-i.il'
Res idential-Scale & Com mercaal-Scale Projects
. Appfications must trè submined by 5:O0 p_m- on fcb¡u¡¡y l4,Zlûlg and
have a final ele<trical inspection date no later than J.núüy ll ,zDlg-
' Applications received after February I 4, 2Ol 9, or that have a ñnal electrical
inspectbn date afterJanuary 3l " 2Ol S, will be placed on a w¿ittist and will if fund¡ ¿re ayaihble-
be processed
Ð
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450 400 3so 300 2so 200 r50 r00
50
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PROGRAM
(REsrP)
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fI- Stote lncer ¡-
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(RESCRIP)
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I
. f. ¡lnstolled/ln Progress ..û. Proiected(Net Metering Cop Met)
Continues to occept cost shífting
from solor customers to other rotepoyers
District poys retqil qmount for generotion in excess of our requirements Allows time for possible legislotive
unwind of ony chonges to policies
implement
District controct monogement ond
billing proctices for solor
customers thqt ore working well
coNS
home /business eoch month reduces the omount of
vtew Requires billing system chonges
I
t
Most "foir" qpproqch to distributed generotion
Limits cost shift
5 {12,6û0)
No Stãte lncenti ves
S 29,4m
15,768
5 t,t3z.rq
15,768 s
s s
26.0 7.4
S 42,m0
5
(12,600)
WA State lncentlræs
15,768
5 t,132.1¿
11768
5
5 ¿a¡s.z¿
S 21,ooo.oo
^t
!
lnstalled in: ãÌlll
I nstal lation Cost ($3.50/watt)System Cost Federal Tax Credit
TotalCostto lnstall
Net Meteríng Yeorly Energy $wíngs kWh per Yeall) Electricity Rate(2) Total Annual Benefit kWh perYear(l) lncentive Rate Annual lncentive Total lncentive(3) WA Stote lncentives Payback Period (Yean)s
6
$ ¿eom
s
( 12,600)
l{o State lncentircs
$
æ,qæ
1,6
g-9
S +¿om
5
(12,600)
WA State
I nce ntives15,768 0.0718 0.0418 848.70
t5,768
0.18
2,8ß.24
5
)
s 00
000,
)
s
)
21,
^t
=-l lnstdled in: ã119
I nstal latio n Cost ( $3. S0/watt)System Cost FederalTax Credit Total co6t to lnstall Net Mele¡íngYærly Energy Sovings
kwh per Year(l) Electric¡ty Rate{21 kwh perYear(l) lncentive Rate Annual lncentive Total lncentive(31 WA Stdte lncentives Avoided Cost Rate Total Annual Benefit
Payback Period (Years)s
6
s s s
15,768 0.0718 0.0418
w,70
15,768 $
s
$
Continue or lncreqse Net Metering Cop
Current
Move to Avoided Cost Rote
Retoil Retoil Retoil Reseorching Avoided Cost Retoil
Avoided Cost
Retoil Exceeding O,íYo wilhout setting new cop 3OO% of 0.5olo cop Exceeding O,5o/o without setting new cop
Met Cop ond shut progrom down
2OOo/o of 0.57o cop
Met cop qnd switched to Avoided Cost
O.5o/o not met Yes Yes Yes
No
Yes Yes
No
Snohomish PUD
Clork PUD
P.S.E.
City of Richlond
Benton PUD
lnlond Power Avisto Customer lnslqlled Solor greoler lhqn 0.50/o? New Net Melering Cop Adopled? Retoil/Avoided Cost
Ulilily
build ond test in billing system
)
Ma
Benton County PUD and Horse Heaven CRA Terms, Conditions and Scope of Work Page 6 of9
Exhibit A
Planned Infrastructure
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L/8/zoLs
Resource Adequacy in the Pacific Northwest
Serving Load Reliably under a Changing
Resource Mix
Energy Environmental Economics
January 2019
Ai-¡¡e Olso¡, Sr. Pa:ii'Ê:-
Zacl l"liitg, l,1ar.agri-rç f ¡,r5¡i:¿::¡
)
t
ln2OL7-2O18, E3 completed a series of studies
for PGP and Climate Solutions to evaluate the
costs of alternative electricity decarbonization strateg¡es in Washington and Oregon
* This study builds on the previous analysis by focusing on long-run reliability . How much capacity is needed to serve peak load under a range of conditions in the NW? . How much capacity can be provided by wind, solar, storage and demand response? . what combination of resources would be needed for rel¡ab¡lity under low or zero carbon? f
The conclusions from this study broadly align with the previous results
Ener8y+EnvironmpFlal E@nmlcr
a a a a
2017 E3-PGP Low Carbon Study
@/&-rÞ.dæ@ lrl@qrljj¡d The studies found that the least-cost way to
reduce carbon is to replace coal with a mix of conservation, renewables and gas generation Firm capac¡ty was assumed to be needed for long-run reliability, how€ver the study d¡d not look at that question in depth
Relationship to Prior E3 Work t
)
Ll8/2or9
ì * The study region consists ofthe
U.S. portion of the Northwest
Power Pool (excluding Nevada)
+ lt ¡s assumed that any resource in
any area can serve any need
throughout the Greater NW region
. Study assumes no transmission
constraints or transactional friction
Érergr.E ¡vi@blErEÍks Balanc¡ng Author¡ty ArcÃs ¡ndude: Avista, Bonnev¡lle Power Adm¡n¡stmuon, Chetan County PUD, Douglas County PUD, Gmnt County PUD, Idaho Power,
Northwætem Energy, Pac¡ñCorp (East & Wæt), Portland Genenl Electric, Puget Sound Energy, Seattle Ciry L¡ght, Tacoma Power, western Area Power Admin¡stmtion
3
. Study assumes full benefits from
regional load and resource diversity
. The system as modeled is more
efficient and seamless than the actual Greater NW system
Study Region - The Greater NW
* This study focuses on long-run (planning) reliability, a.k.a. Resource
Adequacy (RA)
. A system is "Resource Adequate" if it has sufficient capacity to serve load across
a broad range of weather conditions, subject to a long-run standard for frequency of reliability events, for example L-day-in-10 yrs.
* There is no mandatory or voluntary national standard for RA
Each Balancing Authority establishes its own standard subject to oversight by state commissions or locally-elected boards
. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) and Western Electric
Coordinating Council (WECC) publish information about Resource Adequacy but have no formal governing role
* Study uses a f-in-10 standard of no more than 24 hours of lost load in 10
years, or no more than 2.4 hours/year
. This is the most common standard used across the industry
Energy Enviranmental Economlca
4
Long-run Reliability and Resource Adequacy
2
L/8/z9rs
I
* The study considers additions nearly 100
GW of wind and 50 GW of solar across the s¡x-state region
* New renewable portfolios are within the
bounds of current technical potent¡al estimates, but are nearly an order of magnitude higher than other studies have examined
f The cost of new transmission is assumed
for delivery of remote wind and solar generation but siting and construction is not studied ¡n deta¡l
Ersgy- E viÞr@tJ EøF!*! https ://www. nrel. gov / docsl fy l2osti l 5 19 46.pdf
Additional
transmiss¡on
cost ($50/kw-yr) assoclated with MT and WY wind
a so¡ar-
^ NW Wind
. MT Wind
* WY Wind 'wind
State
WA OR
c¡
ID
MT WY UT
ilREL Technícal Potent¡al (GW) Total 18 27 34
18
944 s52
r3 1588
resources ci¡rrently operat¡ng in the region
* The portfolios studied are sisnificantly
more diverse than the renewable
New wind and solar resources are across a geographically diverse
Energy Environmental Economics
KEY FINDINGS
,4\
(t-J)
3
tl8/2oLe
electricity grid, äs long as sufficient firm capacitv is available during periods of low wind, solar and hydro production
copaciLy is not ¡nconsistent with deep reduct¡ons in carbon emissions
important l¡mitations ¡n their ability to meet Northwest Resource Adequacy needs
(2) gas or coal generat¡on with carbon capture and seguestration, (3) ultra-long duration electricity storage, and (4) replacing conventionaf natural gas w¡th carbon-neutral gas
generat¡on capacity w¡th solar, urind and storage, due to the very large quantities of these resourçes that would be required
maintain an acceptable level of Resource Adequacy after planned coal ret¡rements
EnsåÉårlunítal EqEdq
7
Key Findings ( 1 of 2)
Current planning pract¡ccs risk underinvestment in new capacity required to ensure Resource Adequacy at acceptable levels
meeting Resource Adequacy needs on a regional basis by taking advantage of load and resource diversity among utilities in the region
capac¡ty, there is a r¡sk that reliance on market transactions may result in double- count¡ng of ava¡lable surplus generation capac¡ty
infrastructure may be required to ensure Resource Adequacy even under a deep decarbon¡zatíon trajeÇtory
planning reserves on a regional basis, which may help ensure sufficient physical firm capacity and reduce the quantity of capacity required to ma¡ntain Resource Adequacy The results/findings in this onolysis represent the Greoter Nw region ¡n qggregate, but results moy differ for individuol utilities
Eßrgy?Envlrenñcntal Eænomlçt
4.o
Key Findings (2 of 2)
4
Ll8/zore
Costs of achieving deep levels of decarbonization increase non-linearly
Reduct¡on in 2O50 GHG Emíssions {million metric tonl tærû'ülvlffit¡¡ Éqsik3 Low Cost tltr6Rps , High Cost 5ro
9
5( 1) 6'0 50 40 10
90% Reductlon
^s9
2$7
ß)o
U
ñs3
ã
Es¿
951
98% Reduct¡on
99XGH6-Free g6%FpS
' t=?tlttt-
60% Reduction
A)X çHG-Ftee 95XGHG-rrce I
toa%BPs ,
80%Eeduct¡on .,
go%GHG-Frce .2 ß0ró RPS )J
...t
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Cost of GHG Reduct¡on
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Achieving 100% GHG reductions leads to exponential cost increases and is impractical due to massive renewable overbuild
Reductíon ín 2050 GHG Emissions (million metric ton)
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gnergy rEnviranñertal EconoDl€
60% ReductÍon Low Cost
10
60 50 40 2A 10
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Cost High
30
80% GH6-Free
a6x R?s
Previous slide
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90'l 6HG-Frce
16* RPg 7(N% Reduct¡on
7O0%GHG-Free
123 APS 98% Reducdsn l: ggxGHc-Frce L
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1 d
soN neduction \t/,
95X GHG.Frce
80% Seduction 708%BPs ta
Cost of GHG Reduct¡on
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5
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Response3 Hydro2 7 Gas
Resource
2018 Nameplate MW lHydro ¡s rnodclèd às ercryy budgêE br ðch rììonth ând doeg rìot use nameplate Gpãcity ¡Other hydro is hydro outside NWrcC reg¡on 3Demand R6ponse: max 10 Glls, each @ll max dumtion = 4 houß 4lmports are zerc for summer ñonths (Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep) qcept durlng
NOTE: Storage assumed to be ¡nsigniñiänt in the cumnt system 11
coal 16'6 Wlñd
tw
EFArËw¡læ*d
EcEg¡io
44% Hydro 2% Nucleâr lmports Nâtural Gas
IM
glomass oemand
fX
Respon* 29" Other Hydro t%
+
2018 Baseline system lncludes 24 GW of the¡mal generat¡on, 35 GW of hydro generation, and 7 GW of wind generatlon
.
Sou¡ces: GENESYS databaæ for NWPCC reglon and ÎEPPC anchor dataæt forother select NWPP BAAS
f
Ay 2O?3, approx¡mately 1,8ül MW of coal generation Ís expected to retlre
+
2018 loads:246 TWh/yr,43GW peak !ñ.rgy+Envhonmrtal Êøgmk¡
L2
2030 No Coâl 67
3 ('
2030 2018
,. :i,é.4?È,
100 80 60 40 20
lf all coal is refired, then 16 GW new capac¡ty is needed
2030 Saseliæ , 2018 B3selim
I lmports
!DR
Nuclear a Bio/Geo
I Natural Gas ¡ Coal I Storage r Wind
* Solar
r Hydro
With planned coal ret¡rements of 3 Gw 8
GW of new capac¡ty by 2030 is needed 5 GW net new capac¡ty by 2030 is needed for rel¡ab¡l¡ty J.,'...1;ffi1'. .,.,. , ..ifili[i".];.: ,
*Assumer 60tó coal cdpæW fqcþr
2O3O Portfolios
6
tl8/20Ls
Removing final L/o of ca¡bon requires addit¡onal Slü)b to 9170b of ¡nvestment
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Greater NW System in 2O5O
Scenario Summary
Portland land ¡rc¡ i¡ 85k ¡cres
Se¡ttlr land ¡re¡ i¡ 56k acre¡
Oregon land ¡rca i¡ 61,704k ¡crcs
lerlrttolor¡y
NdnrepldteGW
W¡{rd Totdl I drìd Wi¡ rd
[rire(t
t ãr¡d
Solar ïolô I
t ô ¡ì{t
U*
Each point on thê map lndicates 200 MW. Sites not to scale or indicative of site locatlon.
Eñergy+Envlronm€ñtôl Econoñlc5 €drgy : lñlrdñl¡l Ecol@lq
the area of Portland ¡nd Sêattle combined
1.6 to 7 .5x
Land use today ranges from
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.
. NìU lvind
7.L
.HTfkrd ; Q ,, '' . lilY Wind
Z
Renewable Land Use 2018 Installed Renewables
)
7
Ll8/2ote
Load (/ol Load
toad (6w) 2018
":;J
trxl
/t42
26v,
2794
uclear
Erccr (%l
Cåpacity Factor l%l l{ameplate Câpacity {GW) Resources / Effective Capacity (GW) ABfg-fuvhümntJ Ecffiñ¡ct
15
*ELCC = EÍfect¡ve Lood Corrying Cqpab¡lity =
firm contribut¡on to systern peqk lood
Wind and solar contr¡bute little effective capacity w¡th ELCC* ol ToÁ and lz%o
2018 Load and Resource Balanc€,
Oregon land area is 6X,704k acres Portland land area is 85k acres Seettle lend area ¡s 56k acres
Technology NameplateGW
Each point on the map indicates 200 MW. Sites not to scale or indicative of site location
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æ æ
ffi ffi
Land Use ' Land Use lDirect
(thoilsand
( thoils¿ildacres)
solâr Total Total
Lancl Use
(thous¿ild
Wind - Wind -
Ençrgy Environmental Econorrlcr
the area of Portland and Seattle combined 46' 47 18 33 16 24l
361 1.135 -
3,337 91 tand use in L00% Reduction case ranges from
20 to 100x
r
Solar
1^ NW W¡nd
. MT Wlnd ' WY Wind
100% Red 80% Cleãn
2,9t3 -
13,701
Renewable Land Use
t00o/o Reduction
8
rl8/zOLe
59
3s 3s 3sl ss96 sstl s4 44% ue6
44
38 .ta 961 19f,1 22'4 22rd 3s% 36%
J7c24 0.6 2 1
120 2,0 20 0.6 2 1
I
20 11 2.2 ¿q50_ -._..__.-
80r, 90;
r00ì. Reductioî R€dúction Reduclion Êærðh Envi6lMtd EcûÈfi ¡c9
L7
*ELCC = Effective Lood Carrying Copobility =
f¡rm contribut¡on to system peak lodd
Wind ELCC* values are higher than today due to significant contributíon from MT/WY wind
r0û1: Red 80., RÊd
¡¡êdÊpl¡tç Cåp.dtv {GW}
tlcc{,'¿t i
C¿pa€ity¡aflo¡{%t 90',R€d- 100'.R€d. 80t:Red. 90".rRed. l00t¡R€d
2O5O Load and Resource Bala
Portland land area is 85k acres Seattle land area is 56k acres Oregon land area is 61,704k acres
Nameplate GW Technol Solar
Wind - Wind -
Total 'Direct :fotal
Land Use Land Use ' Land Use
(thous¿ild (tltousind (thousånd ¡<res)
àcr es)
acres)
Each point on the map indicates 200 MW. Sites not to scale or indicative of site location.
Ð
^¡^¡¡¡^^ú^u^¡¡u
d EnerEy -Envkonmental Ëçgnomica
the area of Portlând and Seattle combined
8 to 37x
Land use in 80% Reductlon case ranges from
f1
3ó 2 18
Red 84. 80% 1,135 - 5,337
. NW Wind
.. MTWnd
. WY Wind
Renewable Land Use
80o/o Reduction
9
10 60 50 40
l0
20
¡0
80% Reduction Portfolio lncludìnq Gas
Di.I¡rft LA Gil ol ût\tolle¿ |tû.wobtu ¡ opot;ty ui tt¡L 30': ¡¿dutttotr \(.not¡o, qô\ ond hfdro ota needcl dut'ne low grnetntloÞ pettod\
Ddy 7
10 Day Cold Stretch ln January
EGBþ€tllürFt l€qurh¡ 19
I
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to
9
I
7 6 5 3 a 2
r
Lost toad
ã
Deñand ResÞonrè
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Hydfo
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Bio/Geo/Nuclear
Illustrating the Need for
Firm Capacity - lanuary
t/8/z0te
10 50 40 30 20 10
80% Reduction Case Wíthout Gas
Withoul gos, the system is energy delictent duilnq prolonged stQtches ol low wind ond solor Noduction
Loss of Load
Eærgr+f nvlEîmrntål ElonoÍdq
Dqt 20 3
70 9
I
t
2
10 Day Cold Stretch ln January
ILoJt Load e* Demand Rsrcñte IStor¿ge
IRen€wables
I
ljyd.o
IGât/lñports I
Eio/ceo,/Nucle¡r
Illustrating the Need for
Firm Capacity - January
L0
Energy and Envlronnrental Ecoriomics, lnc. (E3) 101 l"lontgomery Street, Suite 1600 San Francrsco, CA 94104 Tel 415-391-5100
V,/eb http : //wr,,¡i,v.eth ree. com
Arne Olsoir, Sen ior Pa itnei- (¿ :rre,.g,eih ree. co¡¡ ) Zach 11 r ;rç, i{ana gr rrg Consr, lie i ii (.za:i¡a:y .n-ttng.4ellì iee. corn )
Energy Environmental Economics
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