Mustafa Ergen Ko University 5G: Telecommunication, Intellectual - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mustafa Ergen Ko University 5G: Telecommunication, Intellectual Property, Entrepreneurship and Academia 2015 M.Ergen 5G... Telecommunication, Intellectual Property, Entrepreneurship and Academia Mustafa Ergen IP2016 - Istanbul @mstfrgn

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SLIDE 1 2015 M.Ergen Mustafa Ergen Koç University 5G: Telecommunication, Intellectual Property, Entrepreneurship and Academia
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SLIDE 2 2015 M.Ergen

5G...

Telecommunication, Intellectual Property, Entrepreneurship and Academia Mustafa Ergen IP2016 - Istanbul @mstfrgn
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SLIDE 3 3 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Benchmark – Turkey and many others...

  • s/ll fragment

the local market with local holdings...

Industrial Revolu/on

  • not successful

to build mul/- na/onal firms.

Informa/on Economy

  • can do catch up

with entrepreneurial economy.

Entrepreneurial Economy

Global firms are flaEening the world almost without any local barriers. If not successful to build a global monopole, local firms will be sold
  • ut. Converge to
all-employee na6on. Before 1980 ANer 1980 ANer 2000
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SLIDE 4 4 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Today, dynamics...

1

2 3

Entrepreneurship & Venture Capital mindset. Technology and R&D to go full power and focus. Leverage of local market and resources to debut.
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SLIDE 5 5 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Technology Entrepreneurship

1

2 3

Entrepreneurship & Venture Capital mindset...
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SLIDE 6 6 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital Source: Steve Blank Vacuum Tubes Test Equipment Microwaves Integrated Circuits Personal Computers Internet

1910 1956 1995

Gold Rush Radio Era Silicon Era Internet Era HP... Intel, ... Raytheon, Lockheed... Apple, MicrosoN, Oracle, Cisco, ... Google, Facebook, Amazon, Uber, ....

Technology Entrepreneurship = Silicon Valley History

DeForest Company Linear Growth Exponen/al Growth
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SLIDE 7 7 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital Two universi/es – One hour drive Istanbul: More than 70 Universi/es: less than hour drive Synergy with academia
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SLIDE 8 8 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

First Techno Park – Stanford Research Institute

1946 46 –

Varian Associates HewleE- Packard Eastman Kodak General Electric Lockheed Corpora/on NASA Sylvania Defense Raychem IBM, etc.. Sputnik 1 Source: Girişimci Kapital Vacuum Tubes > Test Equipments > Microwaves > Integrated Circuits > Personal Computer > Internet > ... Market: Hollywood > Second World War > Cold War > Consumer Electronics > Worldwide Synergy by co-loca/on Inventor Lee De Forest: Steve Jobs of that /me
  • Inspired his students to start companies such as HP and others.
  • Head of Harvard Radio Lab in WW2 that innovated to beat Nazis.
  • Dean of Stanford when established the technopark.
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SLIDE 9 9 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

185 1853 3 – Go Gold Ru d Rush

  • Bought from
Mexicans.
  • 300 thousand people
came to dig gold.
  • Resulted a unique
employment law for California. Introduc/on of
  • At-Will,
  • NDA
  • NCA
Synergy with diversity and employment law. Source: Girişimci Kapital

1872 L 1872 Law aw

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SLIDE 10 10 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Gold rush is still on...

$2B: NPV of total gold dug. $40B: Annual revenue

  • f Intel.

$60B: 2010 revenue of Apple – They introduced iPhone 3.

Gold Rush Era Integrated Circuit Era Personal Computer Era Synergy by empowering ordinary people: Second Renaissance
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SLIDE 11 11 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

1879 – 1982 AT&T Monopole

Silicon Valley Personal Computer Opera/ng System Open Source Broadband AT&T bought Vacuum Tube patents from De Forest for $50K. Fiber Cellphone 1996 Bell Labs -> Lucent 2006 Lucent -> Alcatel-Lucent 2015 Alcatel-Lucent -> Nokia Synergy from monopole power Source: Girişimci Kapital
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SLIDE 12 12 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Monopole Economy seen from Draper Cycle

Warren Buffet, M&A, Wall Street, Investment Banking, Funds, etc.
  • High Margin
  • Art
  • $1B to start.
  • Low Margin
  • CraUsmanship
  • $1B is low to
start. Mergers Leverage Buy-outs Acquisi/ons Recession Recession Recession VS: Venture Capital PE: Private Equity Synergy with financial industry Source: Girişimci Kapital
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SLIDE 13 13 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

5G Opportunity

1

2 3

Technology to go full power and debut...
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SLIDE 14 14 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Mobile cellular generations

Voice, Analog, No Roaming Voice: Roaming, Global, Dijital, Start of Data Voice + DATA: Perfect Roaming, Global Radio, High Speed DATA: All IP Network, Convergence DATA: True Global Harmoniza/on Internet WiFi 0 km/hr 500 km/hr 0.1 Mbps 1000 Mbps Low Cost DSP and FEC CDMA Reuse 1 and Turbo Coding MIMO, OFDMA, SDR, Spectrum Sensing Source: Mobile Broadband
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SLIDE 15 15 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Data tsunami when?

Year Speed Popula6on Device Usage Required Capacity 2012 0.3Mbps 4984/km2 1.2 15% 0.26Gbps/km2 2016 2.9Mbps 5191/km2 1.4 20% 4.2Gbps/km2 2020 30Mbps 5477/km2 1.7 25% 69.8Gbps/km2 317MHz 5000MHz Required spectrum LTE – Advanced 500m radius – London 16X 16X 16X 4 Year 4 Year
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SLIDE 16 16 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Change in technology and business...

1G 2G 3G 4G 5G TDMA WCDMA OFDMA FDMA Mobile operators has to redefine themselves:
  • either cost-cupng,
  • or innova/on & new markets,
  • otherwise consolida/on.
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SLIDE 17 17 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

League of legends in telecom

India Korea Taiwan China Japan USA EU

By 2020, they decided to make communica/on equipment in house. Korea, star/ng from 1980, they have invested short cycle 6me technologies with government game plan. China uses their local market advantage and use this power to grasp rights in standardiza/on ac/vi/es. They want open market and dicatate by WTO. US is pushing monopole companies with its powerful venture capital. Korea has global brands. Taiwan has monopole companies. No global brands. Success of Korea is termed as Schumpeterian Catch Up.
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SLIDE 18 18 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

5G – Virtual layers of new communication infrastructure

Optical Core Network Optical Metro Network Core Cloud Infrastructure Layer Optical Access Network Satellite Network RAN and wireless backhaul Edge Cloud Network Function Layer Multi-service Control Layer Business Function Layer Edge Cloud Business Service Layer Network Function Repository Vertical #1 Services (e.g., Factory of the Future) Mobile broadband Services Vertical #2 Services (e.g,, Automotive) Service #1 Service #2 Service #3 Service #1 Service #2 Service #3 Service #1 Service #2 Service #3 Network-centric services Vertical-centric services Northbound Interfaces Southbound Interfaces Vertical #1 Function Repository Vertical #2 Function Repository Vertical #3 Function Repository Optical Wireless Satellite Abstract resources: Mobil Access Digital Factory Smart Cars Opera6ng System SoUware Hardware Source: 5G-PPP
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SLIDE 19 19 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Venture Capital investment in telecommunication – Reduced...

Investments Ra/o Source: PWC Opportunity for indigenous scenarios...
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SLIDE 20 20 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Turkish government intervention for mobile ecosystem: 4.5G and 5G...

Local 4G Base Sta/on Project: ULAK

  • funded over

$70M by government.

  • Target 4.5G:

LTE-Advanced Technology 4G Spectrum Auc/on

  • Dictated only

LTE-Advanced Technology

  • Up to 40%

mandate to

  • perators for

local procurement. 5G Vision

  • Target of public

and private sector.

  • Set by

government.

  • R&D Resources

are being harmonized...

2013 2015

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SLIDE 21 21 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

4.5G entrepreneurial ecosystem & 5G Intellectual Property

1

2 3

Leverage of local market and resources Local market, local talent, local IP, local regula/ons to create synergy.
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SLIDE 22 22 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital Source: NetWorld2020

5G-PPP of Europe – more than 1000 members: Research

5G-PPP is a European
  • rganiza/on to
establish strategy and coordina/on to lead EU in 5G. Turkey is selected to be in the founding board (M. Ergen) via Turk
  • Telekom. Funding
total is 3.5B Euro.
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SLIDE 23 23 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

5G in the world...

ITU-R Visions Group 5G-PPP ETSI 3GPP 5G Lab Germany at TU Dresden 5G Innova/on Centre (5GIC) at University of Surrey US 4G Americas China IMT-2020 (5G) Promo/on Associa/on Japan 5G Promo/on Forum Korea 5G Forum Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Economic Affairs Russia 5GRUS by Russia’s Icom- Invest

5G- PPP

5G USA 5G JAPAN 5G KOREA

5G CHINA

5G TR

2016: 5G-TR founded.
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SLIDE 24 24 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

Importance of patenting and Essential IPR

$400 Android Phone $120 Intellectual Property $50 4G Patents $50 WiFi Patents $120 Produc/on Cost

Source: Intel
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SLIDE 25 25 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

4G patent map...

Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei and Cisco are top in Essen/al IPR list.
  • Ericsson 37K patents | Huawei 36.5K patents
Huawei for instance in last three years, won 14K patents.
  • Huawei claims they hold 20% of 4G patents.
Qualcomm asks 3.25% royalty from the sale price. Nokia asks 1.5%. Ericsson asks 1.5%. Huawei asks 1.5%. ZTE asks 1%. Motorola asks 2.25%.
  • Ericsson
  • ETRI
  • Freescale
  • Huawei
  • Innova/ve
Sonic
  • InterDigital
  • LG
  • Motorola
  • NEC
  • Nokia
  • Nortel
  • NSN
  • Qualcomm
  • RIM
  • Samsung
  • Sharp
  • TI
  • ZTE

Qualcomm earns around $8B per year from licensing...

Source: Web and verbal FRAND These are subjec/ve numbers can change for each customer. Fair, reasonable, non-discriminatory commitment
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SLIDE 26 26 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

4G standard applications – Essential IPR acceptance ratio

Accepted Rejected Not Related 9% Acceptance Rate Source: SignalsR LLC 3GPP
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SLIDE 27 27 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

National Target

%0.1

  • $25B

%0.5

  • $125B

%1

  • $250B
  • Assump/ons:
  • In 2020, there will be 70B equipment around $500 per device and %7 essen/al IPR
  • If we assume 100B device around $100 then numbers are $7B, $35B and $70B.
  • Ra/os are distribu/on of %7.
  • Total 20 year revenue. Annually around $1-10B
  • There are 200 universi/es and 300 companies and research centers. It will be around 10 patents per ins/tu/on.
  • Normally, people are assuming 7 trillion device for 7 billion people.
If we can grasp following ra/os from our patents that form 5G standard. Our revenue will be ...

20200patents

by 2020
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SLIDE 28 28 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital Dilemmas
  • Total funding from government over year is the same
and number of universi/es to content for the same are increasing.
  • Digital technologies and online courses are destroying
the main offerings.
  • Informa/on is free.
  • Researchers are evalua/ng that publishing at web
page has wider impact than Chinese invaded! 3- reviewer journal system.
  • Journal means nothing if it has not been realized in an
applica/on or a company. Opportuni/es in research is prolifera/ng hence system have been forcing researcher to go full-round to see its impact.
  • Demand for entrepreneurship is increasing from
undergrads – university is not a guaranteed employee
  • pportunity anymore.
  • Technology is changing rapidly and speed of
adapta/on in human capital is slower in universi/es than companies.
  • Unfortunately, homes more toxic people and no
mechanism for de-toxica/on. This poisons the system.

Universi/es can sustain if they can create a self-feeding aEached economical ecosystem. Ac/ons in discussion:

  • White robe scien6st to flip flop dent
makers...
  • No startup no tenure!
  • Ex: U of Southern California, U of
Virginia, etc.
  • Free IPR licensing
  • Ex: Cornell, Stanford...
  • No physical gates – anyone join lectures
  • All US and EU Universi/es
  • Entwined with surrounding ecosystem
  • Ex: Purdue, U of Kansas, U of Georgia
  • Pay forward culture
  • To get back

Entrepreneurial University

Source: Girişimci Kapital

$

Walled Garden to Open Garden
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SLIDE 29 29 2016 M.Ergen #GirişimciKapital

We need to synergize these earlier than others...

4

Technologists, Investors, Entrepreneurs and Government.

Thank You!

mergen@ku.edu.tr