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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
MTBF and Nationale Expenditure Rule in the Netherlands Eugene - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MTBF and Nationale Expenditure Rule in the Netherlands Eugene - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MTBF and Nationale Expenditure Rule in the Netherlands Eugene Verkade MTBF workshop Roma , Sept 7 2017 CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Summary MTBF cycle MTBF rules Annual budget cycle Recent developments CPB
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
The MTBF cycle (1)
Before elections
- CPB provides a medium term scenario
- Working group of high ranked civil servants prepares
advice on budgetary policy for next 4 years
- Political parties publish their election manifesto
- CPB provides political parties, on a voluntary basis,
the opportunity to calculate the impact of their manifestos
- elections
MLT 30/3/2016 SGB 1/7/2016 KiK 15/2/2017
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
The MTBF cycle (2)
After elections
- CPB updates the medium term scenario (mts)
- Political parties negotiate a coalition agreement
- CPB calculates the impact on mts
- CPB update again mts, taking into account the coalition agreement
- New government formulates budget rules for the next 4 years
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
MTBF rules
- Current practice
– expenditure rule for 3 sectors (centr.government, social security, health care), ceilings in real terms – interest payment, non tax revenues outside ceiling – additional measures, only in extraordinary circumstances (signalling margin) – windfall revenues can not be used for additional spending
- Relationship with annual budget
– CPB reports deviations in spring forecast – deviations eliminated in autumn budget/ forecast
- Relationship with EU semester
– End of April : Stability Program sent to European Commision – By Oct 15th : Draught budgettary Plan is sent to European Commission
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Annual budget cycle (1)
– Budget notice sent by MoF to ministries (Oct/ Nov) – Policy letters sent by ministries to MoF with priorities (Feb/ Mar) – Framework letter sent by MoF (Mar)
- Publication of CPB Spring forecast
– Council of Ministers decide on main outlines of the budget (Apr)
- Formal report of MoF
– Initial draught budget (Jun/ Jul) – Final decisions on budget (Aug)
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Annual budget cycle (2)
– On Sep 1 budget has to be sent to Council of State for advise – First half of Sep response by ministers to the Council of State – 3rd Tuesday of September :
- 1. King delivers Kings speech
- 2. MoF presents budget in parliament
- 3. CPB publishes MEV
– Parliamantary vote on the budget in nov/ dec (in both chambers)
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Recent developments
- Existing government prepares the 2018 budget
– no expenditure ceiling – no new policy initiatives – upward revised growth forecast increases revenues
- New government will start…
…
- New government may still revise 2018 budget this year
– ministerial budgets has te be approved before january
- New MTBF will be formulated
– advise budget working group will probably be followed – timing?