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Modeling of Household Waste Generation and Treatment by Bottom Up - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Modeling of Household Waste Generation and Treatment by Bottom Up Approach Takeshi Fujiwara, Kyoto University Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University The 7 th AIM International Workshop 15-17, March 2002 Background Material cycle has

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SLIDE 1

Modeling of Household Waste Generation and Treatment by Bottom Up Approach

  • Takeshi Fujiwara, Kyoto University
  • Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University

The 7th AIM International Workshop 15-17, March 2002

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SLIDE 2

Background

  • Material cycle has much relation to global

warming and atmospheric pollution.

  • In the material production, transportation, and

waste treatment, GHG and atmospheric pollutants are generated and emitted directly or indirectly.

  • Analyzing and predicting the flow of material

cycle is important to reduce the global environmental problem.

  • To grasp the current situation of material cycle,

bottom up approach is effective as well as top down approach.

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SLIDE 3

Factors

Factors which can change material flow are : (1) Consumer’s preference: “Which goods does the household purchase?” (2) Long time use: “When does the household discard the goods as the waste?” (3) Waste treatment with low environmental load: “How is the waste reused, recycled or treated ?

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SLIDE 4

Objective

To analyze and to predict the waste flow through household, these three models are developed. (1) Consumer preference model (2) Household material balance model (3) Waste treatment model

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SLIDE 5

Macro Economics model Customer preference model Customer preference model Household material balance model Household material balance model Waste treatment system model Waste treatment system model Household waste Household consumption goods Landfill disposal Recycling Income, product price Scenario of social & economic factors Landfill cost Utility cost Recycle goods price Facility cost Inter- industry relation table Research

  • n

time Research

  • n

household CPI Waste elements research Treatment Facility data Literature Amount of waste Facility Planning Facility Planning Retired facility Amount of the disposed Amount of the recycled Amount of the industrial waste Running cost Amount of goods

Bottom up model of household consumption and waste

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SLIDE 6

Non-durable consumer Goods Durable consumer goods

Domestic waste Household Consumer preference model Consumer preference model

Household material balance model

Container and package Residue function Transfer function

Product price, Commodity production coefficient, Labor cost, Working hours Interindustry Relations table Product consumption model Waste generation model

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SLIDE 7

House garbage (HG) Refuse derived Fuel (RDF) Composting Solid fuel Compost Electric Power Slag Domestic waste (not HG) Incineration Gasification and melting Ash melting Ash treatment Landfill

Fly ash Fly ash Bottom ash

Super structure of waste treatment system

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SLIDE 8

House garbage (HG) Refuse derived Fuel (RDF) Composting Solid fuel Compost Electric Power Slag Domestic waste (not HG) Incineration Gasification and melting Ash melting Ash treatment Landfill

Fly ash Fly ash Bottom ash

Calculated waste flow of waste treatment system

383 617 69.0 79.6 33.3 13900 7.71 617

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SLIDE 9

Planning of waste treatment

Active facility

Total waste volume Total waste volume Predicted population Predicted GDP Consumer price

Retired facility

Completion year Required additional capacity Planning Treatment capacity Prediction Existing Treatment capacity Planning year Age and capacity

  • f all treatment

Facilities in Japan Industrial waste Waste treatment super structure Waste treatment super structure Capacity decided from the viewpoint

  • f cost performance

Property and cost data for each treatment facility Capacity decided from the viewpoint

  • f past result

Cost minimization Cost minimization Kind and capacity

  • f new facilities

Calculation of additional capacity for all kinds of existing facility

Outputs

+

  • Distribution

Waste flow is calculated

+5year

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SLIDE 10

is less equal than + = 24hours

Budget constraint

Expenditure Income Essential time Free time

Time budget constraint

Maximum utility

Selection of action Selection of goods/service

Aging people ↑ The # of children↓ Woman power ↑ Technology ↑ Housing↑ Labor cost↑ Labor hours↑ Environment↑

Social and economic factors

Consumer preference model

high low

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SLIDE 11

財・ サービス 財・ サービス 財・ サービス 財・ サービス

Goods / Services Xi

時間 時間 時間 時間

Time ti

Full income Full income Commodity Zi+1 Commodity Zi Utility U Utility U Concept of consumer preference model Benefit Zn

Cobb-Dougras-type utility production function Leontief-type commodity Production function Time budget constraint budget constraint

Annual report of household Report of living hours

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SLIDE 12

amusement books TV set sports goods hours to read books hours to watch TV hours to do sports

Definition of benefit production

Production function of benefit (Leontief function)

Investment of money Inestment of time Produced benefit Coefficient of benefit production

・ ・ ・ ・ ・ ・

          =

∑ ∑

k ik i j ij ij i

t A x p z , min

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SLIDE 13

Constraints for benefit production

Expenditure excluding consumption Income without labor Available total time Labor cost Investment for goods/service Money income renounced while the time is spent except for labor

Full income： Constraint： Full income： money income when whole available time is spent for labor. Constraint of full income is regarded as integrated budge and time budge constraints.

∑∑ ∑∑

+ =

i k ik i j ij ij

t w x p S

V K T w S − + =

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SLIDE 14

Base of benefit Produced utility Benefit Magnitude of preference

Definition of utility production

House Amusement Sleep Eating

・ ・ ・

Utility Full income

Maximize Each benefit is fixed

Utility function (Cobb-Dougras function)

Full income is distributed according toαi and βi

Goods/Service Time

( )

∏

− =

i i i

i

z u

α

β

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SLIDE 15

Consumer preference model Consumer preference model Household material balance model Household material balance model Scenario of economic growth Scenario of economic growth Scenario of population change and aging Scenario of population change and aging Household expenditure per person for aged households and the other Household expenditure per person for aged households and the other Household expenditure of whole Japan in future Household expenditure of whole Japan in future

Prediction of household waste using ‘Consumer preference model’

Prediction of Japanese household waste in future Prediction of Japanese household waste in future

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SLIDE 16

Category of benefits

C a t e g

  • r

y B e n e f i t s E x a m p l e

  • f

a c t i

  • n

c l

  • t

h b e n e f i t s b y w e a r i n g c l

  • t

h e s c l

  • t

h i n g e a t i n g b e n e f i t s b y e a t i n g d i s h e s e a t i n g h

  • u

s e b e n e f i t s t

  • g

e t c

  • m

f

  • r

t a b l e l i v i n g h

  • u

s i n g e d u c a t i

  • n

b e n e f i t s b y t a k i n g e d u c a t i

  • n

s g

  • i

n g t

  • s

c h

  • l

h

  • u

s e w

  • r

k b e n e f i t s b y h

  • u

s e k e e p i n g c l e a n i n g 、 w a s h i n g h e a l t h b e n e f i t s b y m a i n t a i n i n g h e a l t h y l i f e t a k i n g b a t h , w a s h i n g f a c e , g

  • i

n g t

  • a

h

  • s

p i t a l a m u s e m e n tb e n e f i t s b y e n j

  • y

i n g a m u s e m e n t

  • r

r e c r e a t i

  • n

s r e a d i n g 、 s p

  • r

t s 、 t r a v e l s l e e p b e n e f i t s b y s l e e p i n g s l e e p i n g

  • t

h e r s t h e

  • t

h e r b e n e f i t s m

  • v

i n g 、 c

  • m

m u n i c a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 17

Prediction of living expenditure (total cost per person)

0.8 1.2 1.6 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 106 年 1 人当たり実質年間消費支出総額 ( 1995年基準・円) 積極ケース 中間ケース 停滞ケース Aged household The other household → Prediction Economic growth ↓ Increase income ↓ Increase of household expenditure Economic growth ↓ Increase income ↓ Increase of household expenditure

Positive growth Intermediate growth Zero growth Year Total real living expenditure (1995 year based 106 yen/person)

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SLIDE 18

Scenario of population change and aging

1 2 1 2 5 1 3 1 9 9 5 2 2 5 2 1 2 1 5 2 2 2 2 5 年 人口( 千人) 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 高齢者世帯率

Ratio of aged households

(国立社会保障 ・ 人口問題研究所)

Population Peak at 2007 year Population (103 persons) Ratio of aged households (%) Year

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SLIDE 19

2 2 2 2 4 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 年 家庭ごみ総量( t ) 積極ケース 中間ケース 停滞ケース

Prediction of household waste

Peak at 2013 year Peak at 2018 year Effect of population decrease Year

Positive growth Intermediate growth Zero growth

Total weight of household waste (t)

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SLIDE 20

・ In all households, the expenditure for ‘eating’ decreases. ・ Household garbage, which is generated from the essential activity, the ratio of garbage decreases even if the economic growth is high.

5 8 % 5 9 % 6 % 6 1 % 6 2 % 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 年 家庭ごみ総量の占める割合 積極ケース 中間ケース 停滞ケース

Prediction of household garbage

Positive growth Intermediate growth Zero growth

Year Ratio of the household garbage against the total household waste (%)

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SLIDE 21

Prediction of paper waste

・ Increase of aged households. ・ Expenditure for amusement in aged households increase. ・ Papers have a relationship with the amusement.

1 7 % 1 8 % 1 9 % 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 年 家庭ごみ総量の占める割合 積極ケース 中間ケース 停滞ケース

Positive growth Intermediate growth Zero growth

Ratio of the paper waste against the total household waste (%) Year

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SLIDE 22

Conclusion

  • We developed sequential three models
  • Using a scenario considering aging problem,

the trend of waste in future was predicted.

  • This models should be linked to the macro

economic model, AIM-Material.

  • In the next step, a bottom up model of

industrial waste will be studied.

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SLIDE 23

( )

     + = + + = + + =    + =    =        =

∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑

= = = = =

cost labor : income

  • ther

: income full : income (4)Full hour working : hour total : constraint budge (3)Time service

  • r

goods

  • f

price : Income : constraint (2)Budget ables

  • ther vari

: for spent hour : service

  • r

goods : commodity : ; , , , , , , , function production Commodity (1)

1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1

w V S V wt V t w wt V t w X p S t t t t t p I X p I R X t X Z R t t t X X X f Z

all M i i w M i i M i i i w all w M i i all i M i i i i i i n M M n

L L

( )

   ≥ ≥ − = + = + ≡ + + = + + =               = −

∏ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑

= = = = = = = =

utility base : consume to propensity marginal : , fuction production utility Douglas

  • Cobb

) 7 ( commodity

  • f

price shadow : commodity the

  • f

price Shadow ) 6 ( t coefficien production Commodity : , min type Leontief ) 5 (

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n n n n N n n n i i i i M i i i M i i M i i i M i i i M i i i i M i i i M j j j i

Z Z U Z w A V Z V wZ Z A V t w X p S A t A X p Z function" production Commodity "

n

β α β β π π π

α

Appendix

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SLIDE 24

( ) ( )

      − + =             − + − → = = ≥ ≥ − =

∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∏

= = = = = = M m m m n n n n n M m m m N n n n n M m m m N n n n n N n n n

S Z Z S Z Z S Z Z U

n

1 1 1 1 1 1

  • n
  • ptimizati
  • f

result the as function demand Utility ) 9 ( log max 1 subject to max max solved be to problem

  • n

Optimizati ) 8 ( β π α β π π π λ β α π α β β

α