Modeling Climate Change in the Laboratory Mikls Vincze MTA-ELTE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
modeling climate change in the laboratory
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Modeling Climate Change in the Laboratory Mikls Vincze MTA-ELTE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 31, 2023 134 likes •685 views

Modeling Climate Change in the Laboratory Mikls Vincze MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group ELTE Institute of Physics, von Krmn Laboratory for Enviromental Flows (HU), BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg, Department of Aerodynamics and Fluid

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Modeling Climate Change in the Laboratory

Miklós Vincze

MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group ELTE Institute of Physics, von Kármán Laboratory for Enviromental Flows (HU), BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg, Department of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics (DE)

  • Intl. Conf. On Teaching Physics Innovatively – Budapest, Hungary

August, 2015

slide-2
SLIDE 2

First of all: What kind of laboratory?

 A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán. – can also stand for ‚Environmental Flow maniacs(?)’ in Hungarian)  Founded in 1998 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth  The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures  Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers’ Night, etc.), research  Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date…  Video (courtesy index.hu)

slide-3
SLIDE 3

First of all: What kind of laboratory?

 A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán. – can also stand for ‚Environmental Flow maniacs(?)’ in Hungarian)  Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth  The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large- scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures  Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date…  Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers’ Night, etc.), research

slide-4
SLIDE 4

First of all: What kind of laboratory?

 A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán. – can also stand for ‚Environmental Flow maniacs(?)’ in Hungarian)  Founded in 1998 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth  The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures  Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers’ Night, etc.), research  Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date…  Video (courtesy index.hu) LINK: http://index.hu/video/2010/09/26/kutatok_ejszakaja_2010/ [from 02:00 to 04:00]

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Hot topics

 A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán. – can also stand for ‚Environmental Flow maniacs(?)’ in Hungarian)  Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth  The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures  Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers’ Night, etc.), research  Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date…  Video (courtesy: index.hu)

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Hot topics

 A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán. – can also stand for ‚Environmental Flow maniacs(?)’ in Hungarian)  Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth  The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures  Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers’ Night, etc.), research  Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date…  Video (courtesy: index.hu)

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Hot topics

 A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán. – can also stand for ‚Environmental Flow maniacs(?)’ in Hungarian)  Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth  The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures  Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers’ Night, etc.), research  Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date…  Video (courtesy: index.hu)

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Hot topics

 A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán. – can also stand for ‚Environmental Flow maniacs(?)’ in Hungarian)  Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth  The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures  Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers’ Night, etc.), research  Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date…  Video (courtesy: index.hu)

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Why to use such a lab for research purposes nowadays? - #1: Lab experiments as ‚analog computers’

“It alw lways bothers me e tha that, accord rding to the the law laws as s we e under erstand the them today, it it takes a computing mach chine an inf infinite number of f log logical oper erations to fig figure out what goes on in in no matter r how tin tiny a reg region of f spa space, and no matter how tiny a region of time.”

  • R. P. Feynman

(In: The Character of Physical Law, 1967)

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Why to use such a lab for research purposes nowadays? - #2: Test-bed for „Nimitz class” complex flow models

  • A som

somewhat provocative statement: : The e opera rational numerical methods and models for r wea eather fora rasting and cli climate pre rediction can be e validated only in in the the la lab! ! (if if at t all ll)

slide-11
SLIDE 11
slide-12
SLIDE 12
slide-13
SLIDE 13
slide-14
SLIDE 14
slide-15
SLIDE 15
slide-16
SLIDE 16
slide-17
SLIDE 17
slide-18
SLIDE 18
slide-19
SLIDE 19
slide-20
SLIDE 20
slide-21
SLIDE 21
slide-22
SLIDE 22
slide-23
SLIDE 23
slide-24
SLIDE 24
slide-25
SLIDE 25
slide-26
SLIDE 26
slide-27
SLIDE 27
slide-28
SLIDE 28

So, what can be done?

  • How to separate parametrization

(discretization, etc.) errors from those that

  • riginate from our incomplete understanding
  • f the system
  • Let’s build/find a physical system which

behaves like the atmosphere, but still much simpler, and all the governing equations are correctly understood!

slide-29
SLIDE 29

A minimal model of mid-latitude weather

  • A large variety of the

typical atmospheric phenomena of the mid- latitudes are primarily driven by two factors

  • nly.
  • Rotation + meridional

temperature difference ≈ weather

  • Let’s use a differentially

heated rotating circular tank for method validation!

slide-30
SLIDE 30
  • A dif

ifferentia ially ly heated cyli cylindrical l tan ank, mounted on

  • n a

a tu turntable

  • le. “Rotating annulus”

Geometrical parameters (Cottbus): a = 45 mm b = 120 mm d = 135 mm

A minimal model of mid-latitude weather

slide-31
SLIDE 31
  • A dif

ifferentia ially ly heated cyli cylindrical l tan ank, mounted on

  • n a

a tu turntable

  • le. “Rotating annulus”

Geometrical parameters (Cottbus): a = 45 mm b = 120 mm d = 135 mm

A minimal model of mid-latitude weather

slide-32
SLIDE 32
  • A dif

ifferentia ially ly heated cyli cylindrical l tan ank, mounted on

  • n a

a tu turntable

  • le. “Rotating annulus”

Geometrical parameters (Budapest): a = 45 mm b = 150 mm d = 40 mm

A minimal model of mid-latitude weather

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Basics: baroclinic instability

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Basics: baroclinic instability

“Sideways convection” – no threshold in ΔT (i.e. No ‘critical Rayleigh number’) Any temperature difference can initiate the flow

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Basics: baroclinic instability

“Sideways convection” – no threshold in ΔT (i.e. No ‘critical Rayleigh number’) Any temperature difference can initiate the flow

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Basics: baroclinic instability

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Basics: baroclinic instability

Rotation!

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Baroclinic instability

Rotation!

Zonal flow (thermal wind) Geostrophic theory: Tilted density surfaces

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Baroclinic instability

Rotation!

Zonal flow (thermal wind) Geostrophic theory: Tilted density surfaces

slide-40
SLIDE 40

Baroclinic instability

Rotation!

Zonal flow (thermal wind) Geostrophic theory: Tilted density surfaces

Baroclinic instability!

slide-41
SLIDE 41

Baroclinic waves

  • control parameters:
  • rotation rate, radial

temperature difference

  • Different planetary

atmospheres can be modelled

  • Venus: slow rotation,

zonal flow

  • Earth: fast rotation 

Coriolis effect  cyclones (“weather”)

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Baroclinic waves, planetary analogies

  • control parameters:
  • rotation rate, radial

temperature difference

  • Different planetary

atmospheres can be modelled

  • Venus: slow rotation,

zonal flow

  • Earth: fast rotation 

Coriolis effect  cyclones (“weather”)

slide-43
SLIDE 43
slide-44
SLIDE 44
slide-45
SLIDE 45
slide-46
SLIDE 46

The regime diagram (after Fultz)

slide-47
SLIDE 47

The regime diagram (after Fultz)

slide-48
SLIDE 48

The regime diagram (after Fultz)

slide-49
SLIDE 49

The regime diagram (after Fultz)

slide-50
SLIDE 50

Preliminary results

slide-51
SLIDE 51

Preliminary results

slide-52
SLIDE 52

Comments, conclusions:

 In the model decreasing equator-to-pole temperature difference seems to yield smaller fluctuations (in terms of magnitude)  Temporal behaviour needs to be investigated! (Expectation: smaller temperature difference makes the model weather less predictable – smaller velocities, smaller cyclones, more freedom for the structures to interact)  Significant differences between the three runs! In many cases the trends are not even evident in the temperature anomaly records! – A much-much larger ensemble is

  • needed. (Work in progress.)

 Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Thank you for your attention!