Modeling Climate Change in the Laboratory Miklós Vincze MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group ELTE Institute of Physics, von Kármán Laboratory for Enviromental Flows (HU), BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg, Department of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics (DE) Intl. Conf. On Teaching Physics Innovatively – Budapest, Hungary August, 2015
First of all: What kind of laboratory? A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán . – can also stand for ‚ Environmental Flow maniacs (?)’ in Hungarian) Founded in 1998 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers ’ Night, etc.), research Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date … Video (courtesy index.hu)
First of all: What kind of laboratory? A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán . – can also stand for ‚ Environmental Flow maniacs (?)’ in Hungarian) Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large- scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date … Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers ’ Night, etc.), research
First of all: What kind of laboratory? A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán . – can also stand for ‚ Environmental Flow maniacs (?)’ in Hungarian) Founded in 1998 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers ’ Night, etc.), research Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date … Video (courtesy index.hu) LINK: http://index.hu/video/2010/09/26/kutatok_ejszakaja_2010/ [from 02:00 to 04:00]
Hot topics A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán . – can also stand for ‚ Environmental Flow maniacs (?)’ in Hungarian) Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers ’ Night, etc.), research Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date … Video (courtesy: index.hu)
Hot topics A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán . – can also stand for ‚ Environmental Flow maniacs (?)’ in Hungarian) Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers ’ Night, etc.), research Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date … Video (courtesy: index.hu)
Hot topics A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán . – can also stand for ‚ Environmental Flow maniacs (?)’ in Hungarian) Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers ’ Night, etc.), research Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date … Video (courtesy: index.hu)
Hot topics A Laboratory for environmental flows (aka geophysical fluid dynamics), called Kármán Laboratory of Eötvös University (hidden abbreviation: K.ár.mán . – can also stand for ‚ Environmental Flow maniacs (?)’ in Hungarian) Founded in 2002 by Imre M. Jánosi, Tamás Tél, Gábor K. Szabó, and Viktor Horváth The principle of hydrodynamical similarity enables modeling large-scale (atmosphere, ocean) flow structures Demonstration, teaching (incl. High school groups, Researchers ’ Night, etc.), research Website (www.karman.elte.hu) almost up-to-date … Video (courtesy: index.hu)
Why to use such a lab for research purposes nowadays? - #1: Lab experiments as ‚ analog computers ’ “ It alw lways bothers me e tha that, accord rding to the the law laws as s we e under erstand the them today, it it takes a computing mach chine an inf infinite number of f log logical oper erations to fig figure out what goes on in in no matter r how tin tiny a reg region of f spa space, and no matter how tiny a region of time.” - R. P. Feynman (In: The Character of Physical Law, 1967)
Why to use such a lab for research purposes nowadays? - #2: Test-bed for „ Nimitz class ” complex flow models • A som somewhat provocative statement: : The e opera rational numerical methods and models for r wea eather fora rasting and cli climate pre rediction can be e validated only in in the the la lab! ! (if if at t all ll)
So, what can be done? • How to separate parametrization (discretization, etc.) errors from those that originate from our incomplete understanding of the system • Let’s build/find a physical system which behaves like the atmosphere, but still much simpler, and all the governing equations are correctly understood!
A minimal model of mid-latitude weather - A large variety of the typical atmospheric phenomena of the mid- latitudes are primarily driven by two factors only. - Rotation + meridional temperature difference ≈ weather - Let’s use a differentially heated rotating circular tank for method validation!
A minimal model of mid-latitude weather • A dif ifferentia ially ly heated cyli cylindrical l tan ank, mounted on on a a turntable tu le. “Rotating annulus” Geometrical parameters (Cottbus): a = 45 mm b = 120 mm d = 135 mm
A minimal model of mid-latitude weather • A dif ifferentia ially ly heated cyli cylindrical l tan ank, mounted on on a a turntable tu le. “Rotating annulus” Geometrical parameters (Cottbus): a = 45 mm b = 120 mm d = 135 mm
A minimal model of mid-latitude weather • A dif ifferentia ially ly heated cyli cylindrical l tan ank, mounted on on a a turntable tu le. “Rotating annulus” Geometrical parameters (Budapest): a = 45 mm b = 150 mm d = 40 mm
Basics: baroclinic instability
Basics: baroclinic instability “Sideways convection” – no threshold in Δ T (i.e. No ‘critical Rayleigh number’) Any temperature difference can initiate the flow
Basics: baroclinic instability “Sideways convection” – no threshold in Δ T (i.e. No ‘critical Rayleigh number’) Any temperature difference can initiate the flow
Basics: baroclinic instability
Basics: baroclinic instability Rotation!
Baroclinic instability Rotation! Zonal flow (thermal wind) Geostrophic theory: Tilted density surfaces
Baroclinic instability Rotation! Zonal flow (thermal wind) Geostrophic theory: Tilted density surfaces
Baroclinic instability Baroclinic instability! Rotation! Zonal flow (thermal wind) Geostrophic theory: Tilted density surfaces
Baroclinic waves - control parameters: • rotation rate, radial temperature difference - Different planetary atmospheres can be modelled • Venus: slow rotation, zonal flow • Earth: fast rotation Coriolis effect cyclones (“weather”)
Baroclinic waves, planetary analogies - control parameters: • rotation rate, radial temperature difference - Different planetary atmospheres can be modelled • Venus: slow rotation, zonal flow • Earth: fast rotation Coriolis effect cyclones (“weather”)
The regime diagram (after Fultz)
The regime diagram (after Fultz)
The regime diagram (after Fultz)
The regime diagram (after Fultz)
Preliminary results
Preliminary results
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