Modeling Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change Ron Sands Pacific - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ron Sands Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA

The 6th AIM International Workshop

Modeling Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change

27-28 March 2001, Tsukuba, Japan

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Presentation Overview

Why model agriculture and land use? AgLU model overview Land use and demand for food Scenarios of land use change Model development

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Why Model Agriculture?

Carbon emissions from energy consumption are not the whole story.

Carbon emissions from land-use change Carbon mitigation using biomass fuels CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture

Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

AgLU Regions

Annex I

USA and Canada (NAM) Western Europe (WEU) Eastern Europe (EEU) Former Soviet Union (FSU) Japan, Australia, New Zealand (PAO)

Non-Annex I

Latin America (LAM) Middle East (MEA) Africa (AFR) China and Centrally- Planned Asia (CPA) South Asia (SAS) Other Pacific Asia (PAS)

Supply Solution Mechanism Demand World Market Demand for Crops, Livestock, & Forest Products Supply of Crops, Livestock, Biomass Energy, & Forest Products Local Price Local Taxes & Subsidies Climate Technology Population Income Land Use Emissions

AgLU Model Structure

Biomass Price

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Methodology Highlights

Forest Dynamics

Trees in AgLU grow for 45 years Two forest markets (current and future) needed for model stability

Land Allocation

Land owners compare economic returns across crops, biomass, pasture, and future trees Underlying probability distribution of yields per hectare

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Land Allocation

unmanaged pasture forest food coarse crops biomass grains grains crops

• ther

crops

• il

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Demand for Food

Crops

Rice, Wheat, Coarse Grains Starchy Roots, Fruits, Vegetables, Pulses

Processed Crops

Vegetable Oils Sweeteners Alcoholic Beverages

Animal Products

Beef, Pork, Poultry Milk, Butter, Eggs

Global Food Balance (kcal per person per day)

Processed Animal Other Stock Total Crops Crops Products Food Uses Change Production Crops 344 748 1,041 1,726 51 49 3,959 Processed Crops 2 532 80

• 4

609 Animal Products 37 382 38 457 Final Demand Activity

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

1990 Food Consumption

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 NAM LAM WEU EEU FSU MEA AFR CPA SAS PAS PAO kcal per person per day Animal Products Processed Crops Crops

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Demand for Food

ijt jt ijt ijt ij ijt

C N Y P A X

ij ij

β α

=

i = crops, processed crops, animal products j is a region index t is time X is quantity demanded A is a constant to calibrate the price and income feedback terms P is price Y is per-capita income N is total population by region C is calories consumed per person per day in base year

Land Use (reference case)

Crop Land Pasture Managed Forest Unmanaged 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 billion hectares

Land Use (increased animal products)

Crop Land Pasture Managed Forest Unmanaged 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 billion hectares

Land Use (+ animal products, C policy)

Crop Land Pasture Managed Forest Biomass Unmanaged 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 billion hectares

Land Use (reference case)

Crop Land Pasture Managed Forest Unmanaged 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 billion hectares

Land Use (increased animal products)

Crop Land Pasture Managed Forest Unmanaged 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 billion hectares

Land Use (+ animal products, C policy)

Crop Land Pasture Managed Forest Biomass Unmanaged 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 billion hectares

Carbon Emissions from Land Use Change

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Tg C

Carbon Policy and Increased Animal Products Increased Animal Products Reference Historical

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Model Development

Climate impacts CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture Crop management and carbon sequestered in soils Embed in CGE Framework Water Supply and Demand

Battelle Memorial Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Climate Impacts

Previous ENSO study for North America

El Nino (EN) Strong El Nino (SEN) El Viejo (EV)

Climate change and crop yields

CO2 at 365 ppmv and 560 ppmv GCMs: UIUC, UIUC+ sulfates, BMRC Climate Sensitivity: 1.0° C and 2.5° C

EPIC crop growth model

Table III.17. Average Yields across EPIC Representative Farms (Mg ha-1) Average Yield Deviation from Average Country Crop N EN SEN EV US Corn 7.05

• 0.61
• 0.54
• 0.12

US Winter Wheat 1.76

• 0.13

0.11

• 0.02

Canada Barley 3.91

• 0.15
• 0.16

0.10 Canada Canola 2.68

• 0.02
• 0.01
• 0.01

Canada Spring Wheat 2.53

• 0.07
• 0.02

0.16 Mexico Corn 5.10

• 0.33

0.02 0.05 Mexico Beans 1.16 0.00 0.09

• 0.08

Mexico Wheat 1.75 0.39 0.30 0.17 Mexico Irrigated Corn 7.18

• 0.20

0.13 0.08 Mexico Irrigated Beans 2.55 0.03

• 0.03

0.03 Mexico Irrigated Wheat 4.53 0.05 0.08

• 0.18