Model-Based Analysis to Evaluate the Contribution of the Gas Supply - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Model-Based Analysis to Evaluate the Contribution of the Gas Supply System for the Integration of Fluctuating Renewable Electricity Generation

16th IAEE European Conference Ljubljana, 26 August 2019 Hedda Gardian, Hans Christian Gils German Aerospace Center (DLR) Energy Systems Analysis

Synthetic Gases Electricity Storage Flexibility options Heat Storage Grid Expansion Demand Response

Research topic

• Investigating the flexibility potential of the gas system in comparison with other

flexibility options in a future energy system with a high share of RE

• Research project MuSeKo: Multi Sector Coupling
• Examination of flexibility in the production and storage of synthetic gases
• Interaction with other flexibility options
• Identification of the least-cost dimensioning of converters and storages

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019 DLR.de • Chart 2

Source: Schick, C. et al. (2018) Energiesystemanalyse Baden-Württemberg. Project report, http://www.strise.de/projekte/

REMix OptiMo: Energy System Model

• Cost-minimizing model from an economic planner’s perspective, here only LP
• Deterministic optimization realized in GAMS, solved with CPLEX
• Hourly resolution, typically perfect foresight for one year (8760 time steps)
• Simultaneous optimization of plant expansion and operation

Source: Gils, H.C, Scholz, Y., Pregger, T., Luca de Tena, D., Heide, D. (2017) Integrated modelling of variable renewable energy-based power supply in Europe. Energy, 123: 173-188. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.01.115

DLR.de • Chart 3 > IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

techno-economic parameters, potentials, scenario data REMix-OptiMo: Energy System Optimization Model

determining the least-cost composition and hourly operation of the power system Minimize 𝐷𝑡𝑧𝑡𝑢𝑓𝑛 = σ 𝑑

𝑘𝑦𝑘

hourly system operation, system costs, emissions, plant expansion Input: Model: Output:

Evaluation of flexible energy sector coupling with REMix

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Methane

CHP CH4- Network Power grid

Heat

Heat pump, electric boiler

Power Heating sector

Thermal storage Electro- lyser Battery vehicles

Transport sector

H2-Storage Fuel cell vehicles Fuel cell Gas turbine/CCGT Metha- nation CH4- Storage CH4-Demand

Gas sector

Boiler RE power Steam turbine, ORC Conventional power Demand response Electricity storage

Power sector

Heat demand

Hydrogen

CH4-Import

REMix enhancement for the gas sector

• Goal:
• Reduced, linearized representation of the gas sector
• Limitations:
• Consideration of chemical energy only
• Aggregation according to model regions
• Modules:
• Modular structure for flexible combination of technologies

DLR.de • Chart 5 > IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

Electro- lyser Metha- nation

Gas sector

Fuel cell vehicles CH4- Network H2-Storage CH4- Storage CH4-Demand CH4-Import

REMix gas sector: demand and production

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• Gas Demand:
• Household/Industry demand for H2 and CH4
• Elektrolyzer:
• Produced H2 and biogas can be fed into the methane

transport system as well as separate H2 transport system

• Share of H2 that is fed into CH4 network can be limited
• Methanation:
• Generic module to transform input-fuel to output-fuel
• Considering multiple efficiencies

Electro- lyser Metha- nation

Gas sector

Fuel cell vehicles CH4- Network H2-Storage CH4- Storage CH4-Demand CH4-Import

REMix gas sector: transport, storage and import

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• Gas Network:
• Compression energy is needed for transport
• Chemical energy of transported gas remains constant
• No transport delay
• No consideration of gas composition  Gas mixture
• Gas Compression (pipelines and storages):
• Gas- or electricity-powered
• Gas Import:
• Modelling of import flows
• Different gases can be imported

Electro- lyser Metha- nation

Gas sector

Fuel cell vehicles CH4- Network H2-Storage CH4- Storage CH4-Demand CH4-Import

Data basis for the gas system modelling in MuSeKo

• Salt domes for CH4 or H2 hydrogen storage
• Data on existing assets: storage locations and capacities
• Evaluation of gas transport capacities
• Assumption of reversible flows
• Compressor capacities from literature and inquiries

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REMix configuration in MuSeKo

• Regions:
• Germany divided into states
• Neighbouring countries
• Myopic application: 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050
• Decommissioning at end of lifetime
• No construction time
• Consideration of existing capacities:
• Power/Gas network and storage
• Wind/PV capacity w/o decommissioning
• CHP/conventional capacity w/ decommissioning
• Capacity optimization of RE, gas power plants, CHP, electricity storage and
• f flexible sector coupling

 Resulting problem size: ~100 Mio. variables, ~50 Mio. equations

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Scenarios in MuSeKo

DLR.de • Chart 10

GHG 80

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

• Exogenously defined demand for electrical power, CH4, H2 and heat
• Exogenously defined fuel and CO2-emission costs
• 95% CO2-reduction
• Higher CO2-emission costs
• Increased electrical power and

H2-demand in transport and heating sectors

• Base-scenario
• 80% CO2-reduction

GHG 95

500 1000 1500 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHG 80 GHG 95 Electrical power generation/import in TWh/a Net import Wind Offshore Wind Onshore PV Biomass PP/CHP Hydro Geothermal Waste CHP Nuclear PP Oil PP/CHP Coal PP/CHP Fuel cells Gas PP/CHP

Development of electrical power supply in Germany in 2020 – 2050

DLR.de • Chart 11

Preliminary results: do not cite or quote

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

• Phasing out of nuclear energy by 2022 and coal energy by 2038
• Biomass only in GHG 95-scenario considered
• No back-up capacity of gas turbines in GHG 95
• GHG 95: 30 % more generation in 2050

Development of the gas sector in Germany

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20 40 60 80 100 120 2050 2040 2030 2020 2050 2040 2030 2020 GHG 95 GHG 80 Capacity/Storage Size in GW/TWh Electrolyzer Methanation H2-Cavern H2-Grid H2-Tankstorage CH4-Grid CH4-Cavern

• Expansion of H2-infrastructure
• Increase in methanation plant capacity only to fullfil CH4-demand

Preliminary results: do not cite or quote

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

Synthetic fuel production (GHG 95)

DLR.de • Chart 13

50 100 150 200

2 4 6 8

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Marginal electricity price in €/MWh Fuel Production in GW Electrolyzer Methanation

Preliminary results: do not cite or quote

• H2-production corresponds to electricity price and thus electricity production
• Methanation only comes into system at extremely low electricity costs

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHG 80 GHG 95 Curtailment/Load shifting/Discharging storage/Production in TWh/a Power transmission Electrolyzer Electricity storage Curtailment Load shifting industry E-Boiler Heat pumps Heat storage E-Mobility vehicle2grid E-Mobility load shifting

Load balancing through various flexibility options

DLR.de • Chart 14

Preliminary results: do not cite or quote

• About 30% of the battery vehicle charging demand is shifted
• Thermal energy storage buffers wind generation peaks
• Endogenous battery storage installation only outside Germany
• Power transmission is the most import balancing technology

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

Behaviour of gas sector components

DLR.de • Chart 15

Preliminary results: do not cite or quote

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019

4000 8000 12000 16000 2000 4000 6000 8000 H2-storage level in GWh Hour of the year GHG 80 GHG 95 0,1 0,2 2000 4000 6000 8000 Energy demand in GWh/h Hour of the year Gas Electric

Summary

• Integrated consideration of all sector coupling options desirable
• Options of flexible sector coupling interact positively with each other
• Simplified representation of the gas sector improves analysis capabilities
• Flexible H2-production can make a significant contribution to RE balancing
• Partial conversion of natural gas infrastructure to H2 is an attractive option
• Methanation and seasonal storage become relevant in GHG 95 scenario

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Outlook

Demand scenario Technology parameter Regulatory framework

REMix

Modelling Input Least-cost energy supply system Suitable regulatory framework Results Operation Investment

MuGriFlex

Overall system Individual system

• Comparison to business perspective
• Further analysis of interactions within the overall system
• Further scenarios and sensitivity analysis

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Kontakt Hedda Gardian Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR) Pfaffenwaldring 38-40 | 70569 Stuttgart | Germany Telefon +49 711 6862-8819 | hedda.gardian@dlr.de | www.DLR.de/tt This presentation is based on results of the project “Modellbasierte Analyse der Integration erneuerbarer Stromerzeugung durch die Kopplung der Stromversorgung mit dem Wärme-, Gas- und Verkehrssektor“ (MuSeKo) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) under grant number FKZ: 03ET4038B.

Balancing of seasonal fluctuations

DLR.de • Chart 20

Preliminary results: do not cite or quote

• Seasonal hydrogen storage

becomes relevant in THG 95

• Heat pumps provide base load

for district heating in winter

> IAEE Europe 2019 > Hedda Gardian• Contribution of the Gas Supply System to RE Integration > 26 August 2019