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Mitigation Rachel Freeman (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Mitigation Rachel Freeman (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
System Dynamics in Climate Change Mitigation Rachel Freeman (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester) Presented at: UK Chapter of the SD Society Network Event 5 th December 2017 Welcome Housekeeping The
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Agenda
13:00 – 13:15 Arrivals, lunch available 13:15 – 13.35 Rachel Freeman
- Welcome. Overview of climate change mitigation, introduction
to SD, use of SD in climate mitigation 13:35 – 14:00 Martin Reynolds, Open University A critical systems view of sustainability 14:00 – 14:25 Frank Boons, University
- f Manchester
Circular economy and climate change – a social science view 14:25 – 14:50 Daniel Schein, University of Bristol SD modelling of the environmental impact of digital media 14:50 – 15:05 Refreshment Break 15:05 – 15:20 John Broderick, University of Manchester Using C-Roads to teach about climate change mitigation 15:20 – 15:35 Panel Plenary discussion: *Examples of climate change mitigation *Causal issues common to the examples – critical systems concepts, social science concepts, technology, economy,
- thers…
15:35 – 15:45 Rachel Freeman Introduction to group model building 15:45 – 16:30 Group model building session in small groups, refreshments available 16:30 – 16:45 Presentations from the small groups 16:45 – 17:00 Plenary – general discussion and wrap up
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The Problem Space – Climate Change Mitigation
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The Carbon Cycle
▪ The carbon cycle links global climate with the response of local natural systems to atmosphere and climate ▪ Anthropogenic GHG emissions arise from fossil fuel based energy systems, agriculture and direct land use change – disrupting the previously stable carbon cycle of the Holocene
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Climate Change Trajectory
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Climate Change Impacts
- IPCC. (2014).
Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change
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Climate Change Mitigation
▪ Interventions that reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to abate climate change and its impacts ▪ Mitigation is a relatively new field of study/practice with many uncertainties:
– Its characteristics as a problem space (what systemicity exists?) – Why mitigation progress is so difficult – Real/perceived tensions between human well-being and mitigation – What disciplines and theories are needed to unpick the problem space: engineering, social science, physical sciences, economics, systems science…
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Mitigation Actions
1. Fossil fuel based energy systems
– Transition away from fossil fuels to achieve net zero GHG emissions in buildings, transport, industry, agriculture, energy systems
2. Agriculture
– Healthy soils, reduced toxic impact from chemicals, reduced water use – Reduced livestock production and waste
3. Direct land use change
– Urban planning (e.g. higher density living, making space for nature) – Ecosystem preservation, restoration
The circular economy could help mitigate all types of emissions
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System Dynamics as Part of the Solution Space
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System Dynamics
▪ SD is ‘The use of informal maps and formal models with computer simulation to uncover and understand endogenous sources of system behaviour’ 1 ▪ In SD understanding of structure and its relation to system behaviour is crucial: ‘The level-rate-feedback structure in system dynamics is indeed the fundamental and universal structure of real social and physical systems’ 2 ▪ SD uses simulation modelling since ‘the temporal and spatial boundaries of our mental models are dynamically deficient, omitting feedbacks, time delays, accumulations, and nonlinearities’ 3
1 G. P. Richardson, “Reflections on the foundations of system dynamics,” System Dynamics Review, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 219–243, 2011 2 J. W. Forrester, “System dynamics , systems thinking , and soft OR,” System Dynamics Review, vol. 10, no. 2–3, pp. 245–256, 1994. 3 J. Sterman, Business dynamics : systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Boston ; London: Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 2000
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Modelling Causal Links
Positive Causation/Influence: As A increases (or decreases) B increases (or decreases) Negative Causation/Influence: As C increases (or decreases) D decreases (or increases) Causation/Influence with Delay: E causes an increase/decrease in F after some delay Balancing Loop: goal seeking feedback that counteracts and limits change Reinforcing Loop: amplification feedback that grows indefinitely until disturbed
A B +
C D
- E
F
B R
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Causation and Feedback
ice cream sales murder rate +
ice cream sales murder rate average temperature + +
Incorrect Correct
birth rate population death rate average lifetime fractional birth rate
- +
R B
Births/population/year
Causal Loop Diagrams are “visual representations of the dynamic influences and inter-relationships that exist among a collection of variables” (Spector et
- al. 2001)
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Modelling stocks and flows
▪ “Stocks” or “levels” represent accumulations of things ▪ “Rates” or “flows” define the rate at which accumulating or draining processes move things into or out of the stocks ▪ “Auxiliaries” can influence flows but do not directly influence stocks – Constants (can represent exogenous influences on the system) – Variables calculated from stock values or auxiliaries
fractional birth rate fractional death rate R B Population births deaths + + + +
- +
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Examples of SD in CC Mitigation 1
▪ Stepp et al.: ‘Qualitative framework for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of GHG reduction policies aimed at the transportation sector…identify important feedback loops that allow for the identification and discussion of unintended consequences, policy resistances, and policy synergies’.
Stepp, M. D., Winebrake, J. J., Hawker, J. S., & Skerlos, S. J. (2009). Greenhouse gas mitigation policies and the transportation sector: The role of feedback effects on policy effectiveness. Energy Policy, 37(7), 2774–2787
▪ Anand et al.: ‘Mitigation strategies for curtailing CO2 emissions from the cement sector. Emissions are dependent on many interrelated variables, viz. population and GDP growth rate, cement demand and production, clinker consumption and energy use. A scenario with population stabilisation, structural shifting, 25% renewable energy sources, energy efficient processes and waste heat recovery could reduce CO2 emissions by 42% in the year 2020’.
Anand, S., Vrat, P., & Dahiya, R. P. (2006). Application of a system dynamics approach for assessment and mitigation
- f CO2 emissions from the cement industry. Journal of Environmental Management, 79(4), 383–98
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Example page from World3 (LTG)
Arable Land initial arable land urban and industrial land development time urban and industrial land required average life of land Land Fertility inherent land fertility land fertility regeneration time initial land fertility Potentially Arable Land development cost per hectare initial potentially arable land Urban and Industrial Land fraction of agricultural inputs allocated to land development initial urban and industrial land land erosion rate <total agricultural investment> land development rate land removal for urban and industrial use development cost per hectare table potentially arable land total fraction of agricultural inputs allocated to land development table <marginal productivity
- f agricultural inputs>
marginal productivity
- f land development
<land yield> social discount average life of land normal land life multiplier from land yield <land life multiplier from land yield 1> <land life multiplier from land yield 2> <land life policy implementation time s> <Time> land fertility degredation rate land fertility regeneration time table land fertility regeneration land fertility degredation <fraction of agricultural inputs for land maintenance> land fertility degredation rate table <persistent pollution index> <population> urban and industrial land required per capita <industrial output per capita> urban and industrial land required per capita table <one year> <GDP pc unit>
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World3 BAU Outputs
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Carbon Cycle as SD Model
level of atmospheric greenhouse gases Natural systems on land and below water rate of ecosystem regeneration GHG from agriculture rate of GHG emissions from ecosystems GHG in fossil fuels rate of GHG emissions from fossil fuels rate of GHG take up in ecosystems fossil fuel use + climate change impacts +
- +
- +
impacts threshold multiplier (1.5, 2.0, 3-4 degrees) + human consumption
- f resources
availability of natural systems services + + R1 B1 R2 direct negative impacts on ecosystems
- B2
B3 human population + +
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Invited Speakers
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Plenary Discussion
▪ Examples of real or perceived tensions between human well-being and successful climate change mitigation ▪ Could any concepts from critical systems thinking, system dynamics, and social science help us understand these examples? ▪ A dynamic hypothesis is ‘a statement of system structure that appears to have the potential to generate the problem behaviour’ (Richardson and Pugh) – What knowledge might be needed to develop a dynamic hypothesis about how these tensions play out in reality?
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Group Model Building
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Systems Archetype: Tragedy of the Commons
▪ Describes causal connections between individual actions and the collective results (in a closed system) ▪ If the total usage of a common resource becomes too great for the system to support, the commons will become overloaded or depleted and everyone will experience diminished benefits
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Group Model Building
▪ Explore the tragedy of the commons, with a stable climate as the
- commons. Or pick a mitigation example your group is interested in.
▪ Build a causal loop diagram through these steps: 1. Choose small set of key model elements 2. Start to link up elements with causal arrows 3. Join up smaller groups of elements 4. Review and add/change elements 5. What does the model tell us? ▪ Name elements neutrally – “level of emissions” rather than “reduction in emissions” ▪ Variables can be “soft”, such as attitudes, behaviours, and perceptions (e.g. enthusiasm, willingness, beliefs)
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